Fierce Competition in Coveted Neighborhoods

[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1241505789][quote author="bkshopr" date=1241504582][quote author="IrvineRealtor" date=1241503984]Nobody respects my art, either... here's a masterpiece of my buddies relaxing on the weekend.



<img src="http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2025/2248481941_88382d512b.jpg?v=0" alt="" /></blockquote>


This was one in a series of sixteen oil paintings by C. M. Coolidge, commissioned in circa 1903 by Brown & Bigelow to advertise cigars. All the paintings in the series feature anthropomorphized dogs, but the 9 paintings in which dogs are seated around a card table have become derisively well-known in the United States as examples of mainly working-class taste in home decoration.



(Just another useless trivia that does not make a difference in improving society)</blockquote>


I have a challenge for you bkshopr. Design a room where dogs playing poker is not tacky.



I thought a personal poker room with a wet bar would be an appropriate place for such a theme, particularly if classless irreverence were part of an overall design motif.</blockquote>






Both the Wynn and Bellagio are shapes based on good feng shui and prosperity for the owners. The curve shape is known as the money pouch. Property with such a shape invites good fortune and lucks.



<img src="http://media.cardplayer.com/image/w/WynnDay.jpg" alt="" />



<img src="http://wecpoker.com/images/Bellagio.jpg" alt="" />



The oval room shape would be appropriate for all (more than 4) players. There is no corners in the room and all walls are curve to be concentric to the oval table shape. All players are sitting at a slight angle to each other to prevent seeing others' cards. There is no sharp corner at the table pointed to any player and bring them bad luck



No mirror could be mounted on the curve walls to cheat. All players could be evenly spaced apart on an oval table vs a rectangular table. Everyone has a casual view of each other without having to turn head 90 degree to look at another player. Subtle movement allows better observation of others poker body language. At nightime glass becomes a mirror the curve window does not reflect image clearly.



<img src="http://www.heritagefdn.on.ca/userfiles/page_attachments/Library/1/1615280_OHC_Oval.jpg" alt="" />
 
[quote author="bkshopr" date=1241506356][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1241503705]Do you get the sense that the sheople are being driven to the slaughter? When I read these NAR puff pieces, combined with the deafening silence about the upcoming foreclosure tsunami, it seems that they are trying to cram as many knife catchers as possible into the system before prices completely collapse.</blockquote>


I notice more sheople are buying homes in classic neighborhoods. During the home tour I met 6 couples just purchased homes in Floral Park within the last 6 months. Several of them are successful gay couples with medical practice in Newport Beach. My neighbors directly behind paid $959,000 and the one next door to that paid $999,950. Other than the Free Willy's house homes went fairly quick despite todays sluggish market.



The same also applies to LA classic neighborhoods as well with price tag below $2 mil.</blockquote>


I could see these neighborhoods going either way. The belief that certain neighborhoods are "special" is what made many people buy near the coast. That belief drove those prices up to beyond WTF pricing. It doesn't seem likely that coastal neighborhoods will hold up just because they are more desirable. If anything they will fall even harder because the prices are so much more inflated. I don't know much about the prime neighborhoods away from the coast with special architecture or other features. Some may hold up, and some may not. It will depend on the degree of leverage and the degree of price inflation.
 
My other non artistic brain is recommending turning the Jiffy Lube frontal garages into a poker room. During the winter the winner get to sit closer to the water heater.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1241428575] When realtors tell you that indicators show them that the bottom is in...you should ask them what those indicators are? I never knew that economics education was required to obtain a real estate license. You should also ask them what they think of Mr. Mortgage's little summary of the huge rise in NODs in the pipeline.</blockquote>


I will not ask. Believe it or not, I am very non-confrontational in that environment. Unless my opinion is asked for or expected, (such as a blog forum), I usually keep my opinion to myself. My guess is that most open house sitting agents think I am buying their hooey and listening to them as if they are an "expert." Maybe that is why I am always surprised when the agents start giving me their opinion on the market or the house. I do not ever remember asking for their opinion on anything, yet most seem intent on giving it.
 
And my thoughts on the original post:











There is a slew of buyers right now; in Irvine and in the first time buyer market. My imagination tells me most of the present buyers were chomping at the bit for the last year or so. They could not buy during the bubble because of affordability and since prices have come down and interest rates are about as low as they can go, they are looking at the present market as an opportunity to buy now before they get priced out by either selling prices or interest rates.







As much I want to congratulate people for buying a home they like or their first home, I can not help but feel like they will be regretting their purchases in the foreseeable future. It saddens me to think of someone thinking they are getting a bargain, and a year or two later they realize all their hard saved downpayment, (equity), has vanished. And the folks who are not able to buy quite yet or are waiting for even better prices will see the next leg down and the continued downtrend will demoralize and devastate the so called pent up demand, causing home prices to fall precipitously.









And the irony is that the government sponsored moratorium on foreclosures is adding to the delusion of a bottom and will add to discouragement instead of relieving the pain.







Sucker's rallys are ... well, sucker's rallys.
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1241505789][quote author="bkshopr" date=1241504582][quote author="IrvineRealtor" date=1241503984]Nobody respects my art, either... here's a masterpiece of my buddies relaxing on the weekend.



<img src="http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2025/2248481941_88382d512b.jpg?v=0" alt="" /></blockquote>


This was one in a series of sixteen oil paintings by C. M. Coolidge, commissioned in circa 1903 by Brown & Bigelow to advertise cigars. All the paintings in the series feature anthropomorphized dogs, but the 9 paintings in which dogs are seated around a card table have become derisively well-known in the United States as examples of mainly working-class taste in home decoration.



(Just another useless trivia that does not make a difference in improving society)</blockquote>


I have a challenge for you bkshopr. Design a room where dogs playing poker is not tacky.



I thought a personal poker room with a wet bar would be an appropriate place for such a theme, particularly if classless irreverence were part of an overall design motif.</blockquote>


I prefer a 30" x 40" velvet Elvis painting. I can no longer find them in TJ so they must now be "rare" and valuable.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1241511492][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1241505789][quote author="bkshopr" date=1241504582][quote author="IrvineRealtor" date=1241503984]Nobody respects my art, either... here's a masterpiece of my buddies relaxing on the weekend.



<img src="http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2025/2248481941_88382d512b.jpg?v=0" alt="" /></blockquote>


This was one in a series of sixteen oil paintings by C. M. Coolidge, commissioned in circa 1903 by Brown & Bigelow to advertise cigars. All the paintings in the series feature anthropomorphized dogs, but the 9 paintings in which dogs are seated around a card table have become derisively well-known in the United States as examples of mainly working-class taste in home decoration.



(Just another useless trivia that does not make a difference in improving society)</blockquote>


I have a challenge for you bkshopr. Design a room where dogs playing poker is not tacky.



I thought a personal poker room with a wet bar would be an appropriate place for such a theme, particularly if classless irreverence were part of an overall design motif.</blockquote>


I prefer a 30" x 40" velvet Elvis painting. I can no longer find them in TJ so they must now be "rare" and valuable.</blockquote>


Yes it is still in TJ. You can get your Elvis and the seller will include "Hamthrax" as a bonus.
 
[quote author="tmare" date=1241513190]I'm sure BK could do it if you actually had one of the original paintings ;-)</blockquote>


I am not Momo who is a good food critic and cook.



I like art but I can't paint. I know a lot of things in theory. I am a big concept idea guy but I rely on others for execution. I am not a renaissance man. I know my limitation and only offer info in my expertise.
 
[quote author="SoCal78" date=1241513657][quote author="bkshopr" date=1241512161] "Hamthrax" </blockquote>


:lol:</blockquote> Mrs BK made this up.
 
[quote author="bkshopr" date=1241504582][quote author="IrvineRealtor" date=1241503984]Nobody respects my art, either... here's a masterpiece of my buddies relaxing on the weekend.



<img src="http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2025/2248481941_88382d512b.jpg?v=0" alt="" /></blockquote>


This was one in a series of sixteen oil paintings by C. M. Coolidge, commissioned in circa 1903 by Brown & Bigelow to advertise cigars. All the paintings in the series feature anthropomorphized dogs, but the 9 paintings in which dogs are seated around a card table have become derisively well-known in the United States as examples of mainly working-class taste in home decoration.



(Just another useless trivia that does not make a difference in improving society)</blockquote>


Not to nitpick but in 2005, a pair of the originals sold for $594,000. That may be trivia, but it isn't trivial.
 
[quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1241522128][quote author="bkshopr" date=1241504582][quote author="IrvineRealtor" date=1241503984]Nobody respects my art, either... here's a masterpiece of my buddies relaxing on the weekend.



<img src="http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2025/2248481941_88382d512b.jpg?v=0" alt="" /></blockquote>


This was one in a series of sixteen oil paintings by C. M. Coolidge, commissioned in circa 1903 by Brown & Bigelow to advertise cigars. All the paintings in the series feature anthropomorphized dogs, but the 9 paintings in which dogs are seated around a card table have become derisively well-known in the United States as examples of mainly working-class taste in home decoration.



(Just another useless trivia that does not make a difference in improving society)</blockquote>


Not to nitpick but in 2005, a pair of the originals sold for $594,000. That may be trivia, but it isn't trivial.</blockquote>


This is exactly the reason why I'd like to see someone design a real room as Irvine Renter envisions. I think at least no_vas and I would appreciate it!
 
That pot is way too big and there are way too many players seeing fifth street for this to not be a cold deck situation.



The player who scoops the pot is cheating.
 
no_vas



They are playing 5 card draw and it looks like they just got their draw cards. The pot must be the Ante's and the first bet. Probabaly straight 5 card draw no jacks or better to win or less people would still be in.



The Bull Dog has already folded so he is a tight player and I think the Collie is bluffing or he is the one cheating by dealing off the bottom of the deck. His body language is much to confident.
 
[quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1241432529][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1241421683][quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1241408681][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1241401908][quote author="thrifty" date=1241396592]Good article. I think the next 6-9 months will give us a good idea of how the more desirable neighborhoods in south Orange county will hold up. If prices aren't continuing down by the end of the year, the bottom will likely have been reached. Why? enough of the prime loan resets will be occurring to spur sales vs foreclosures vs REO. These will continue through 2010 but a significant number are occurring this year.</blockquote>
Not true, if the employment rates keep going up past the 10% mark you can bet your booty those prime/jumbo prime loans will be headed for REO city...it's just gonna make longer than some people have patience for me. I swear, I don't get by people are so anxious...not like real estate is gonna start going to the moon.</blockquote>


One reason, artificially low rates. People buy on payments, that's why you're seeing such cat fights when prices get within striking distance of $417,000. You can get loans for more, but at $417,000 the rate doesn't even punish you if you put 10% down (even 5%). PITI comes comes at ~$2800 before taxes.



Mentally they equate that to $2200 after tax. They don't account for the other costs. But that's the driver. $2200 no more rental moving hassles, no more landlords to get permissions from, no more not being able to <insert home ownership fantasy here>.</blockquote>
Yeah, I hear ya. I think that the lower rates are generating more sales interest than otherwise would be present. It'll be interesting to see what happens once rates start climbing up. You still get a condo for less than $500k in a nice area of OC which is why I won't buy. I'm looking for prices of $200/sf +/- on a ~1,500/sf in a nice area OUTSIDE of Irvine but in OC.</blockquote>


Define nice.



Old town area Fullerton? Already there.



Brea? Already there.



Anaheim Hills? Already there.



Orange (east of the 55)? Already there.



Lake Forest? Already there.



Mission Viejo? Already there.



San Juan Cap? Already there.</blockquote>


how about san gabriel valley? alhambra/monterey park/san gabriel/rosemead... i cant seem to find much at ~200/sqft and ~1500sqft in that area.. all i do is type in each city on redfin and filter out short sale and set max $300k... doesnt make sense to me
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1241503705]Do you get the sense that the sheople are being driven to the slaughter? When I read these NAR puff pieces, combined with the deafening silence about the upcoming foreclosure tsunami, it seems that they are trying to cram as many knife catchers as possible into the system before prices completely collapse.</blockquote>


I actually think many of the realtors truly believe we are at a bottom. There is very little, if any, true analysis or understanding. The franchise owners just want their agents putting up numbers. They could give a shit about anything else. What's the best way to do this? Always give the good news spin. The have morning sales meetings where they hand pick statistics, wave some pom poms, and give a "woooooooooooaaaaaaaaaaah bundy!"



I love going into open houses and asking when the bottom was.
 
[quote author="matt138" date=1258523439][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1241503705]Do you get the sense that the sheople are being driven to the slaughter? When I read these NAR puff pieces, combined with the deafening silence about the upcoming foreclosure tsunami, it seems that they are trying to cram as many knife catchers as possible into the system before prices completely collapse.</blockquote>


I actually think many of the realtors truly believe we are at a bottom. There is very little, if any, true analysis or understanding. The franchise owners just want their agents putting up numbers. They could give a shit about anything else. What's the best way to do this? Always give the good news spin. The have morning sales meetings where they hand pick statistics, wave some pom poms, and give a "woooooooooooaaaaaaaaaaah bundy!"



I love going into open houses and asking when the bottom was.</blockquote>
That is exactly why I don't work under one of those large real estate brokerages.
 
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