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Fierce Competition in Coveted Neighborhoods

ABC123_IHB

New member
interesting LA Times article:



<a href="http://www.latimes.com/classified/realestate/news/la-fi-cover3-2009may03,0,7623052.story">House hunting? It's not a buyer's market everywhere</a>



<blockquote>The median price in Southern California may have plummeted, but in more desirable neighborhoods, home buyers are still engaging in bidding wars.</blockquote>


<blockquote>Real estate brokers and investors say would-be buyers misunderstand how the drop in housing prices has affected desirable neighborhoods. Just because an abandoned house in a troubled part of San Bernardino County might be going for $200,000, it doesn't mean you can get a nice place in Sherman Oaks for that amount -- or even twice that amount.



House hunters are trying to pounce on deals from sellers they expected to be frantic -- if not curled in the fetal position. What they're finding instead are bidding wars as low interest rates and pent-up demand in traditionally stable or chic areas have kept prices up -- not as high as the market's peak, but not nearly as low as they had hoped.



"The biggest problem," said agent Phyllis Harb, "is that people are overreacting to housing statistics, thinking they can come in and make an offer 20% below price."</blockquote>


<blockquote>People interested in properties in coveted niche markets such as Pasadena, Culver City and Santa Monica have read or heard too much about frenzied activity in the bottom of the market, he said, without comprehending that it held little relevance for them.</blockquote>




<blockquote>On a recent Sunday, an open house for a vintage 3,159-square-foot Craftsman near Occidental College in Eagle Rock drew 105 people in the first hour despite sweltering temperatures, a Lakers playoff game and a list price of $699,000. Never mind the hilly curb appeal or the aroma of freshly baked cookies that listing agent Tracy King baked. There was plenty of head-shaking among would-be buyers about the absence of bargains.</blockquote>


<blockquote>Instant information, though, also means fiercer competition and fewer hidden gems. As an example, King cited a 1,625-square-foot, midcentury-style fixer-upper in La Crescenta priced at $299,000. Forty people were standing on the front lawn within an hour of its listing, she said. Ultimately, there were 80 bids, 15 of them exceeding $400,000. The winning bid was $480,000.



"What I'm seeing is that perceived bargains are going in multiple offers for more than the asking, and buyers are very disappointed," King said. "Real estate is hyperlocal, so a [regional] $250,000 median price is meaningless here."</blockquote>
 

no_vaseline_IHB

New member
Obviously people were swayed by the most recent debate between BK/IHO and 3 car garages.



These home should have a premium over some shitty tract home!
 

thrifty_IHB

New member
Good article. I think the next 6-9 months will give us a good idea of how the more desirable neighborhoods in south Orange county will hold up. If prices aren't continuing down by the end of the year, the bottom will likely have been reached. Why? enough of the prime loan resets will be occurring to spur sales vs foreclosures vs REO. These will continue through 2010 but a significant number are occurring this year.
 

no_vaseline_IHB

New member
[quote author="thrifty" date=1241396592]Good article. I think the next 6-9 months will give us a good idea of how the more desirable neighborhoods in south Orange county will hold up. </blockquote>


Outside of niches in Newport, there aren't any coveted neighborhoods in South County - not comparable to the ones cited in the article, anyway. I am speaking in hyperbole, but look at the picture from the article:



<img src="http://www.latimes.com/media/photo/2009-04/46640655.jpg" alt="" />



Nobody will ever fight over a Renoir print from Aaron Bros, but they certainly will for the real deal.
 
[quote author="thrifty" date=1241396592]Good article. I think the next 6-9 months will give us a good idea of how the more desirable neighborhoods in south Orange county will hold up. If prices aren't continuing down by the end of the year, the bottom will likely have been reached. Why? enough of the prime loan resets will be occurring to spur sales vs foreclosures vs REO. These will continue through 2010 but a significant number are occurring this year.</blockquote>
Not true, if the employment rates keep going up past the 10% mark you can bet your booty those prime/jumbo prime loans will be headed for REO city...it's just gonna make longer than some people have patience for me. I swear, I don't get by people are so anxious...not like real estate is gonna start going to the moon.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1241401908][quote author="thrifty" date=1241396592]Good article. I think the next 6-9 months will give us a good idea of how the more desirable neighborhoods in south Orange county will hold up. If prices aren't continuing down by the end of the year, the bottom will likely have been reached. Why? enough of the prime loan resets will be occurring to spur sales vs foreclosures vs REO. These will continue through 2010 but a significant number are occurring this year.</blockquote>
Not true, if the employment rates keep going up past the 10% mark you can bet your booty those prime/jumbo prime loans will be headed for REO city...it's just gonna make longer than some people have patience for me. I swear, I don't get by people are so anxious...not like real estate is gonna start going to the moon.</blockquote>


One reason, artificially low rates. People buy on payments, that's why you're seeing such cat fights when prices get within striking distance of $417,000. You can get loans for more, but at $417,000 the rate doesn't even punish you if you put 10% down (even 5%). PITI comes comes at ~$2800 before taxes.



Mentally they equate that to $2200 after tax. They don't account for the other costs. But that's the driver. $2200 no more rental moving hassles, no more landlords to get permissions from, no more not being able to <insert home ownership fantasy here>.
 

Geotpf_IHB

New member
"Just because an abandoned house in a troubled part of San Bernardino County might be going for $200,000, it doesn?t mean you can get a nice place in Sherman Oaks for that amount?or even twice that amount."



Let's see what $200,000 will get you in a "troubled part of San Bernardino County":



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Victorville/12372-Ganesta-Ct-92392/home/12145860">12372 Ganesta Ct Victorville, CA 92392 </a>



12372 Ganesta Ct

Victorville, CA 92392

Price: $189,900

Beds: 6

Baths: 3.5

Sq. Ft.: 3,391

$/Sq. Ft.: $56

Lot Size: 0.3 Acres

Property Type: Detached, Single Family Residence

Stories: 2

Year Built: 2006

County: San Bernardino

MLS#: C08173879

Source: MRMLS

Status: Active

On Redfin: 137 days

Unsold in 90+ days



* * * * * * * * Bank owned * * * * Open layout, perfect for entertaining, Fairly new property. Title shows 6 bedrooms, but actually has 4 bedrooms, with a bonus room. Must see to appreciate.
 
[quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1241408681][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1241401908][quote author="thrifty" date=1241396592]Good article. I think the next 6-9 months will give us a good idea of how the more desirable neighborhoods in south Orange county will hold up. If prices aren't continuing down by the end of the year, the bottom will likely have been reached. Why? enough of the prime loan resets will be occurring to spur sales vs foreclosures vs REO. These will continue through 2010 but a significant number are occurring this year.</blockquote>
Not true, if the employment rates keep going up past the 10% mark you can bet your booty those prime/jumbo prime loans will be headed for REO city...it's just gonna make longer than some people have patience for me. I swear, I don't get by people are so anxious...not like real estate is gonna start going to the moon.</blockquote>


One reason, artificially low rates. People buy on payments, that's why you're seeing such cat fights when prices get within striking distance of $417,000. You can get loans for more, but at $417,000 the rate doesn't even punish you if you put 10% down (even 5%). PITI comes comes at ~$2800 before taxes.



Mentally they equate that to $2200 after tax. They don't account for the other costs. But that's the driver. $2200 no more rental moving hassles, no more landlords to get permissions from, no more not being able to <insert home ownership fantasy here>.</blockquote>
Yeah, I hear ya. I think that the lower rates are generating more sales interest than otherwise would be present. It'll be interesting to see what happens once rates start climbing up. You still get a condo for less than $500k in a nice area of OC which is why I won't buy. I'm looking for prices of $200/sf +/- on a ~1,500/sf in a nice area OUTSIDE of Irvine but in OC.
 

awgee_IHB

New member
My daughter and I previewed three open houses today. All three sitting agents assured me that "indicators show the market has turned and the bottom is in." Is there some website real estate agents all go to before they head out to their open houses for the day? How do they all know the same phrases on the same day? Anyways, I just smile, nod my head, and say nothing. :blank:













Unless they ask. :smirk:
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1241425009]My daughter and I previewed three open houses today. All three sitting agents assured me that "indicators show the market has turned and the bottom is in." Is there some website real estate agents all go to before they head out to their open houses for the day? How do they all know the same phrases on the same day? Anyways, I just smile, nod my head, and say nothing. :blank:













Unless they ask. :smirk:</blockquote>
Nope, no special website that tells us to say that BS. haha Must be something they pick up from their offices. When realtards tell you that indicators show them that the bottom is in...you should ask them what those indicators are? I never knew that economics education was required to obtain a real estate license. You should also ask them what they think of Mr. Mortgage's little summary of the huge rise in NODs in the pipeline. Honestly, when you have all these people calling the bottom in for real estate and housing it's just the quite before the second storm. Hopefully the second storm will get rid of the next round of useless realtards.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1241421683][quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1241408681][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1241401908][quote author="thrifty" date=1241396592]Good article. I think the next 6-9 months will give us a good idea of how the more desirable neighborhoods in south Orange county will hold up. If prices aren't continuing down by the end of the year, the bottom will likely have been reached. Why? enough of the prime loan resets will be occurring to spur sales vs foreclosures vs REO. These will continue through 2010 but a significant number are occurring this year.</blockquote>
Not true, if the employment rates keep going up past the 10% mark you can bet your booty those prime/jumbo prime loans will be headed for REO city...it's just gonna make longer than some people have patience for me. I swear, I don't get by people are so anxious...not like real estate is gonna start going to the moon.</blockquote>


One reason, artificially low rates. People buy on payments, that's why you're seeing such cat fights when prices get within striking distance of $417,000. You can get loans for more, but at $417,000 the rate doesn't even punish you if you put 10% down (even 5%). PITI comes comes at ~$2800 before taxes.



Mentally they equate that to $2200 after tax. They don't account for the other costs. But that's the driver. $2200 no more rental moving hassles, no more landlords to get permissions from, no more not being able to <insert home ownership fantasy here>.</blockquote>
Yeah, I hear ya. I think that the lower rates are generating more sales interest than otherwise would be present. It'll be interesting to see what happens once rates start climbing up. You still get a condo for less than $500k in a nice area of OC which is why I won't buy. I'm looking for prices of $200/sf +/- on a ~1,500/sf in a nice area OUTSIDE of Irvine but in OC.</blockquote>


Define nice.



Old town area Fullerton? Already there.



Brea? Already there.



Anaheim Hills? Already there.



Orange (east of the 55)? Already there.



Lake Forest? Already there.



Mission Viejo? Already there.



San Juan Cap? Already there.
 

bkshopr_IHB

New member
[quote author="ABC123" date=1241393887]interesting LA Times article:



<a href="http://www.latimes.com/classified/realestate/news/la-fi-cover3-2009may03,0,7623052.story">House hunting? It's not a buyer's market everywhere</a>



<blockquote>The median price in Southern California may have plummeted, but in more desirable neighborhoods, home buyers are still engaging in bidding wars.</blockquote>


<blockquote>Real estate brokers and investors say would-be buyers misunderstand how the drop in housing prices has affected desirable neighborhoods. Just because an abandoned house in a troubled part of San Bernardino County might be going for $200,000, it doesn't mean you can get a nice place in Sherman Oaks for that amount -- or even twice that amount.



House hunters are trying to pounce on deals from sellers they expected to be frantic -- if not curled in the fetal position. What they're finding instead are bidding wars as low interest rates and pent-up demand in traditionally stable or chic areas have kept prices up -- not as high as the market's peak, but not nearly as low as they had hoped.



"The biggest problem," said agent Phyllis Harb, "is that people are overreacting to housing statistics, thinking they can come in and make an offer 20% below price."</blockquote>


<blockquote>People interested in properties in coveted niche markets such as Pasadena, Culver City and Santa Monica have read or heard too much about frenzied activity in the bottom of the market, he said, without comprehending that it held little relevance for them.</blockquote>




<blockquote>On a recent Sunday, an open house for a vintage 3,159-square-foot Craftsman near Occidental College in Eagle Rock drew 105 people in the first hour despite sweltering temperatures, a Lakers playoff game and a list price of $699,000. Never mind the hilly curb appeal or the aroma of freshly baked cookies that listing agent Tracy King baked. There was plenty of head-shaking among would-be buyers about the absence of bargains.</blockquote>


<blockquote>Instant information, though, also means fiercer competition and fewer hidden gems. As an example, King cited a 1,625-square-foot, midcentury-style fixer-upper in La Crescenta priced at $299,000. Forty people were standing on the front lawn within an hour of its listing, she said. Ultimately, there were 80 bids, 15 of them exceeding $400,000. The winning bid was $480,000.



"What I'm seeing is that perceived bargains are going in multiple offers for more than the asking, and buyers are very disappointed," King said. "Real estate is hyperlocal, so a [regional] $250,000 median price is meaningless here."</blockquote></blockquote>


Many of the gem neighborhoods like the one listed all have charms. Childless couples have increased over the the last decades. The demand for good aesthetic in lack lustre school districts are on the rise. The area surrounding Oxy I mentioned many months ago in my posts is an excellent buy. Obama attended Oxy for undergrad.



Echo Park is another destination for Dinks.



I know all the area well and they are places with charming houses. However, if I look on the internet I will find in the same neighborhoods there will be some homes with frontal garages as well. Some IHO of the late 50's and 60's moved in the neighborhoods either rebuilt or remodeled charming houses into utilitarian monstrocities. I can also be stubborn and insist that the draw to the communities are really the frontal garages but I know that is not true.



A note to NoVas I do have the original painting that Diaz de la Pena, Renoir's mentor, painted while Renoir watched over his shoulder. To the untrained eyes it is just another motel art.
 

IrvineRenter_IHB

New member
Do you get the sense that the sheople are being driven to the slaughter? When I read these NAR puff pieces, combined with the deafening silence about the upcoming foreclosure tsunami, it seems that they are trying to cram as many knife catchers as possible into the system before prices completely collapse.
 

IrvineRealtor_IHB

New member
Nobody respects my art, either... here's a masterpiece of my buddies relaxing on the weekend.



<img src="http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2025/2248481941_88382d512b.jpg?v=0" alt="" />
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1241503705]Do you get the sense that the sheople are being driven to the slaughter? When I read these NAR puff pieces, combined with the deafening silence about the upcoming foreclosure tsunami, it seems that they are trying to cram as many knife catchers as possible into the system before prices completely collapse.</blockquote>
"Buy now before my commissions are halved!"
 

bkshopr_IHB

New member
[quote author="IrvineRealtor" date=1241503984]Nobody respects my art, either... here's a masterpiece of my buddies relaxing on the weekend.



<img src="http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2025/2248481941_88382d512b.jpg?v=0" alt="" /></blockquote>


This was one in a series of sixteen oil paintings by C. M. Coolidge, commissioned in circa 1903 by Brown & Bigelow to advertise cigars. All the paintings in the series feature anthropomorphized dogs, but the 9 paintings in which dogs are seated around a card table have become derisively well-known in the United States as examples of mainly working-class taste in home decoration.



(Just another useless trivia that does not make a difference in improving society)
 

IrvineRenter_IHB

New member
[quote author="bkshopr" date=1241504582][quote author="IrvineRealtor" date=1241503984]Nobody respects my art, either... here's a masterpiece of my buddies relaxing on the weekend.



<img src="http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2025/2248481941_88382d512b.jpg?v=0" alt="" /></blockquote>


This was one in a series of sixteen oil paintings by C. M. Coolidge, commissioned in circa 1903 by Brown & Bigelow to advertise cigars. All the paintings in the series feature anthropomorphized dogs, but the 9 paintings in which dogs are seated around a card table have become derisively well-known in the United States as examples of mainly working-class taste in home decoration.



(Just another useless trivia that does not make a difference in improving society)</blockquote>


I have a challenge for you bkshopr. Design a room where dogs playing poker is not tacky.



I thought a personal poker room with a wet bar would be an appropriate place for such a theme, particularly if classless irreverence were part of an overall design motif.
 

MoneyNing_IHB

New member
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1241504499]

"Buy now before my commissions are halved!"</blockquote>


Finally, I realize what the realtors mean when they say "it's a great time to buy". They weren't deceitful. They were (are) being perfectly honest. It is a great time to buy so they can get the commissions and pay for their underwater mortgages.
 

bkshopr_IHB

New member
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1241503705]Do you get the sense that the sheople are being driven to the slaughter? When I read these NAR puff pieces, combined with the deafening silence about the upcoming foreclosure tsunami, it seems that they are trying to cram as many knife catchers as possible into the system before prices completely collapse.</blockquote>


I notice more sheople are buying homes in classic neighborhoods. During the home tour I met 6 couples just purchased homes in Floral Park within the last 6 months. Several of them are successful gay couples with medical practice in Newport Beach. My neighbors directly behind paid $959,000 and the one next door to that paid $999,950. Other than the Free Willy's house homes went fairly quick despite todays sluggish market.



The same also applies to LA classic neighborhoods as well with price tag below $2 mil.
 
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