Election Night 2009
- Thread starter Nude_IHB
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By 2012 P and G, and possible S and H will all be Republican. I think bumpsticker redux will be 2012 - The End of an Error. it will be a combination of 1980 and 1994. U.S. Politics is fought in the moderate middle, and that middle is getting crushed economically right now.
If the GOP keeps up with their infighting this may not hold true anymore. I'm just waiting for Palin to run as a 3rd party candidate ...
Marco Rubio vs. House Speaker Gov. Charlie Crist in Florida for one. Crist is labeled as a "squishy moderate who can't be trusted" - he is being derided for accepting stimulus funds and embracing Obama. Rubio may get wild support from the conservative base, but I just don't see how he has a broader appeal among independents.
But the "Rush is the leader of the Republicans" theme has been played all year. Palin is even more polarizing than she was in 2008. And everyone knows conservatives have gotten too angry and are turning people off. Yet there was a huge shift of independents towards Republicans last night.
Something in your formula seems off.
Not that I think any of this matters. The next downturn in the economy is going to turn Obama into Hoover. His only hope is to keep extending and pretending past 2012. How long can the government, the Fed, and Wall Street prop up a fake recovery? Only time will tell.
This is the beauty of the primary system, don't you think? Rubio and Crist, fighting for the right to run... yeah, I love that. Here's the thing, and it's an important point: someone with extreme left or right credentials can run to the center during the general election because the base is already onboard. They don't need to prove anything to secure that portion of the vote, which gives them freedom to move to the center when running in the general election, which is exactly what Obama did from Denver forward to the election. If rubio wins, his conservative support is locked in and he can campaign on more central issues. In contrast, if Crist wins, he has to convince the conservatives AND the independents/moderates to vote for him... that strategy failed McCain miserably in the general. It also failed Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton, who were both rejected for being too much like the other party.
Politically speaking, the infighting serves us well by culling the weaker candidates and forcing the people to choose sides. Sure, it has the potential to boomerang in the General election if something truly lurid is revealed, but history shows that independents tend to ignore the mud and focus on the issues.
Besides, the GOP is already out of power, so what do the Conservatives have to lose by going on the offensive to wrest control away from the blue-bloods?
Nothing against primaries and the right of a party to nominate their wingnut candidate. However, if they are too far from the center I do not see them becoming viable to independents. Especially, if there is a 3rd party candidate to undermine their change of heart to appeal to the other side.
freedomCM_IHB
New member
what about that upstate ny congress race where sarah pallin drove out the republican candidate?
readytopurchase_IHB
New member
Hoffman!!! Come on!!!
graphrix_IHB
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Fox and NY Times are calling Owens as the winner.
bltserv_IHB
New member
Talk about being overly optimistic.
President = Democrat
House = Democrat
Senate = Democrat
Governor = Democrat 26/24
I think that Upstate NY House seat went Blue last night too.
Maybe the GOP needs to get Sarah Palin out to help drum up some more votes this next election cycle.
And you may want to look at the turnout last night. VERY WEAK.
President = Democrat
House = Democrat
Senate = Democrat
Governor = Democrat 26/24
I think that Upstate NY House seat went Blue last night too.
Maybe the GOP needs to get Sarah Palin out to help drum up some more votes this next election cycle.
And you may want to look at the turnout last night. VERY WEAK.
CapitalismWorks_IHB
New member
bltserv said:
By 2012 P and G, and possible S and H will all be Republican. I think bumpsticker redux will be 2012 - The End of an Error. it will be a combination of 1980 and 1994. U.S. Politics is fought in the moderate middle, and that middle is getting crushed economically right now.
no_vaseline_IHB
New member
Hope springs eternal I guess. CW sounds like all the Gore supporters in 2000 - except the Dems were (then) better organized and less splintered than the GOP (is) right now.
And, IMO, this election doesn’t mean shit. The next one will mean slightly more, but not much.
And, IMO, this election doesn’t mean shit. The next one will mean slightly more, but not much.
Nude_IHB
New member
The Democrats lost the independents in the last 12 months. That trumps everything else because core voters on either side cannot win elections by themselves. Turnout was less than last year, young people didn't vote in the same numbers they did last year, minorities didn't turnout as much as last year, but that's all statistically normal. What is different is the trend of independent votes. It means that Obama and the Democrats have hard choices to make if they want to reverse that trend. It was not a meaningless election... New Jersey and Virgina went for the Democrats in huge numbers last year, and the exit polls show that it is domestic policies related to taxes, jobs, and economic issues swung the independent votes to the right. I don't see how you can spin that into being anything but a referendum on the policies of the party and politicians in power. People like Obama, but they don't like what he and his party are doing in response to the economic problems and if they keep it up, they are going to get gridlock in 2010.
But it's not like the DNC didn't expect this, which is why they were pushing so fast and hard for Universal Health Care and Climate legislation and the StimPak. It becomes infinitely harder to convince moderate Democrats, those that won traditionally Republican seats in 2006 and 2008, that a vote for those programs doesn't end their political careers. Either Obama and the Dems mard a hard right turn in time to save the 2010 cycle, or they are going to cripple Obama's ability to pass his agenda. The independents, the people's who votes determine the course of elections, aren't onboard with Obama anymore.
One more observation, with regards to NY23: the local GOP chose a candidate they though could win, a RINO, and were overruled by a vocal constituency that not only got that candidate to drop out on the eve of the election, but got someone who was a complete unknown to 46% in 30 days... THIRTY DAYS! You can call it a defeat for Republicans, but it's a victory for conservatives and a victory for the people over the political machine. Add the votes for Dede Scozzafava to Hoffman's and the Republicans would have retained that seat. This is why we need primaries and not committee selections. Had a primary been called, Scozzafava would never had been on the ticket and the Republicans would have held that seat. The message for the GOP: the days of top down party rule are going to end, either by force or by defection... your choice.
But it's not like the DNC didn't expect this, which is why they were pushing so fast and hard for Universal Health Care and Climate legislation and the StimPak. It becomes infinitely harder to convince moderate Democrats, those that won traditionally Republican seats in 2006 and 2008, that a vote for those programs doesn't end their political careers. Either Obama and the Dems mard a hard right turn in time to save the 2010 cycle, or they are going to cripple Obama's ability to pass his agenda. The independents, the people's who votes determine the course of elections, aren't onboard with Obama anymore.
One more observation, with regards to NY23: the local GOP chose a candidate they though could win, a RINO, and were overruled by a vocal constituency that not only got that candidate to drop out on the eve of the election, but got someone who was a complete unknown to 46% in 30 days... THIRTY DAYS! You can call it a defeat for Republicans, but it's a victory for conservatives and a victory for the people over the political machine. Add the votes for Dede Scozzafava to Hoffman's and the Republicans would have retained that seat. This is why we need primaries and not committee selections. Had a primary been called, Scozzafava would never had been on the ticket and the Republicans would have held that seat. The message for the GOP: the days of top down party rule are going to end, either by force or by defection... your choice.
bltserv_IHB
New member
My conservative friends are acting like its the fall of the Roman Empire
or the death of Fidel Castro.
After 8 Years of Bush. And one of Obama. I am going to be a little patient with the new guy.
I think the fact that Marijuana is becoming legal in more States is a bigger news item personally.
Looks like Nude is ready to throw a big party. Its ok Buddy. Keep moving those deck chairs around on the
Titanic. Your almost a mile underwater and your still thinking your GOP ship has a chance.
or the death of Fidel Castro.
After 8 Years of Bush. And one of Obama. I am going to be a little patient with the new guy.
I think the fact that Marijuana is becoming legal in more States is a bigger news item personally.
Looks like Nude is ready to throw a big party. Its ok Buddy. Keep moving those deck chairs around on the
Titanic. Your almost a mile underwater and your still thinking your GOP ship has a chance.
green_cactus_IHB
New member
Nude said:
If the GOP keeps up with their infighting this may not hold true anymore. I'm just waiting for Palin to run as a 3rd party candidate ...
bltserv_IHB
New member
As long as the perception that this guy is the leading spokesperson for the true GOP conservative cause.
And Sarah Palin is out there securing the base. Everything looks good.
And Sarah Palin is out there securing the base. Everything looks good.
green_cactus_IHB
New member
Nude said:
Marco Rubio vs. House Speaker Gov. Charlie Crist in Florida for one. Crist is labeled as a "squishy moderate who can't be trusted" - he is being derided for accepting stimulus funds and embracing Obama. Rubio may get wild support from the conservative base, but I just don't see how he has a broader appeal among independents.
Oxtail_IHB
New member
bltserv said:
But the "Rush is the leader of the Republicans" theme has been played all year. Palin is even more polarizing than she was in 2008. And everyone knows conservatives have gotten too angry and are turning people off. Yet there was a huge shift of independents towards Republicans last night.
Something in your formula seems off.
Not that I think any of this matters. The next downturn in the economy is going to turn Obama into Hoover. His only hope is to keep extending and pretending past 2012. How long can the government, the Fed, and Wall Street prop up a fake recovery? Only time will tell.
Nude_IHB
New member
green_cactus said:
This is the beauty of the primary system, don't you think? Rubio and Crist, fighting for the right to run... yeah, I love that. Here's the thing, and it's an important point: someone with extreme left or right credentials can run to the center during the general election because the base is already onboard. They don't need to prove anything to secure that portion of the vote, which gives them freedom to move to the center when running in the general election, which is exactly what Obama did from Denver forward to the election. If rubio wins, his conservative support is locked in and he can campaign on more central issues. In contrast, if Crist wins, he has to convince the conservatives AND the independents/moderates to vote for him... that strategy failed McCain miserably in the general. It also failed Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton, who were both rejected for being too much like the other party.
Politically speaking, the infighting serves us well by culling the weaker candidates and forcing the people to choose sides. Sure, it has the potential to boomerang in the General election if something truly lurid is revealed, but history shows that independents tend to ignore the mud and focus on the issues.
Besides, the GOP is already out of power, so what do the Conservatives have to lose by going on the offensive to wrest control away from the blue-bloods?
green_cactus_IHB
New member
Nude said:
Nothing against primaries and the right of a party to nominate their wingnut candidate. However, if they are too far from the center I do not see them becoming viable to independents. Especially, if there is a 3rd party candidate to undermine their change of heart to appeal to the other side.