Economy & Finance?

[quote author="morekaos"]EVERYBODY is expecting a pullback the first quarter of 2010. If one does not appear (of any relevant size) it is off to the races. I bet one never does.[/quote]
I don't think we'll see a pull back in the first half of 2010 and we will grind higher towards 1200ish in a sideways movement. Earnings estimates are very beatable at this point, we'll need some earnings disappointments from some heavyweights for the market to take a 10%+ decrease.
 
[quote author="USCTrojanCPA"]
[quote author="morekaos"]EVERYBODY is expecting a pullback the first quarter of 2010. If one does not appear (of any relevant size) it is off to the races. I bet one never does.[/quote]
I don't think we'll see a pull back in the first half of 2010 and we will grind higher towards 1200ish in a sideways movement. Earnings estimates are very beatable at this point, we'll need some earnings disappointments from some heavyweights for the market to take a 10%+ decrease.[/quote]

Agreed
 
[quote author="morekaos"]
[quote author="USCTrojanCPA"]
I don't think we'll see a pull back in the first half of 2010 and we will grind higher towards 1200ish in a sideways movement. Earnings estimates are very beatable at this point, we'll need some earnings disappointments from some heavyweights for the market to take a 10%+ decrease.[/quote]

Agreed[/quote]
An because of that, I am beginning to sell out-of-the-money VIX calls.
 
I believe we will get 10-15% pull back in Q1 starting second half of Jan, if AA's earning is any indication, we will have some decent sell off, of course we still gotta wait and see more earnings to come in.
 
[quote author="bondtrader"]I believe we will get 10-15% pull back in Q1 starting second half of Jan, if AA's earning is any indication, we will have some decent sell off, of course we still gotta wait and see more earnings to come in. [/quote]

100% agree. Good to see you back Bondtrader! <!-- s:) -->:)<!-- s:) -->
 
[quote author="Panda "]
[quote author="bondtrader"]I believe we will get 10-15% pull back in Q1 starting second half of Jan, if AA's earning is any indication, we will have some decent sell off, of course we still gotta wait and see more earnings to come in. [/quote]

100% agree. Good to see you back Bondtrader! <!-- s:) -->:)<!-- s:) -->[/quote]

A nice $23 hair cut for gold today! It appears that gold is moving in the same direction as the DOW for the past couple of months. Could it be the carry trade?
 
The primary trend of this market is showing evidence of changing, to the downside if I have to make it clear, <!-- s:) -->:)<!-- s:) -->.
Playing the upside bounces at this stage is quite dangerous unless your skilled and have kahoonas. And looking at the technicals, they are not painting a pretty picture for the bulls.
The indexes are seriously damaged and likely have more downside to go before our first solid oversold bounce, which could happen sometime next week. You can buy the dig for a swing trade, but not as an investment, anyone buying at today's level for long term investment is simply nuts.
The daily SPX shows a trendline (by connecting the March, July and Nov 09 lows) break. Selling has kicked in and the top is likely in, would love to see more confirmation (lower highs and lower lows) in the next couple weeks.
Now back to the fundamental side of the story, The math is simple: We need to destroy the excess debt and break the debt promises at all levels of society, private and public. And yes along the way, jail the criminals and gangsters of which there are many. And yes it will be very painful but if we don't allow it to happen, fascism will surely result. I don't want to sacrifice liberty for the illusion of security. In the end of course we would have neither.
I am not anti-capitalistic, nothing can be further from the truth! TRUE capitalism would have washed the excess fraud and corruption and risk from society long before it got out of hand. But our corrupt overlords distorted the system and outlawed true capitalism. Americans are angry at "socialize the risks and privatize the profits". We are not dummies.
Ok so we may go broke, but at least we should still be free.
I am not sure how it will all play out, but the math is pure and simple and doesn't add up. And until it does, this bear market will not be over.
 
[quote author="bondtrader"]The primary trend of this market is showing evidence of changing, to the downside if I have to make it clear, <!-- s:) -->:)<!-- s:) -->.
Playing the upside bounces at this stage is quite dangerous unless your skilled and have kahoonas. And looking at the technicals, they are not painting a pretty picture for the bulls.
The indexes are seriously damaged and likely have more downside to go before our first solid oversold bounce, which could happen sometime next week. You can buy the dig for a swing trade, but not as an investment, anyone buying at today's level for long term investment is simply nuts.
The daily SPX shows a trendline (by connecting the March, July and Nov 09 lows) break. Selling has kicked in and the top is likely in, would love to see more confirmation (lower highs and lower lows) in the next couple weeks.
Now back to the fundamental side of the story, The math is simple: We need to destroy the excess debt and break the debt promises at all levels of society, private and public. And yes along the way, jail the criminals and gangsters of which there are many. And yes it will be very painful but if we don't allow it to happen, fascism will surely result. I don't want to sacrifice liberty for the illusion of security. In the end of course we would have neither.
I am not anti-capitalistic, nothing can be further from the truth! TRUE capitalism would have washed the excess fraud and corruption and risk from society long before it got out of hand. But our corrupt overlords distorted the system and outlawed true capitalism. Americans are angry at "socialize the risks and privatize the profits". We are not dummies.
Ok so we may go broke, but at least we should still be free.
I am not sure how it will all play out, but the math is pure and simple and doesn't add up. And until it does, this bear market will not be over.


[/quote]

thx for ur comments. i like reading ur internal tech details. what happened to ur blog?
 
Jan 12, 2010, 9:00am, bondtrader wrote:
I believe we will get 10-15% pull back in Q1 starting second half of Jan, if AA's earning is any indication, we will have some decent sell off, of course we still gotta wait and see more earnings to come in.


[quote author="Panda "]
[quote author="Panda "]

100% agree. Good to see you back Bondtrader! <!-- s:) -->:)<!-- s:) -->[/quote]

A nice $23 hair cut for gold today! It appears that gold is moving in the same direction as the DOW for the past couple of months. Could it be the carry trade?[/quote]


I still like Gold for the long run, especially if you hold USD. If you hold AUD or CAD, those two actually outperformed gold in 2009, so it's all relative.
I mentioned it more than once, while Fed is trying to defend the dollar and prop up the stock market at the same time, sooner or later, they will fail both. By then, we will see dollar and equity market go down at the same time, which leaves commodity stocks (gold, copper, coal) to outperform everything else. Good to see the market start pulling back as I predicted, we will have good opportunities to get into those commodities stocks.
My commodities stock pick
Gold - GDX, DGP
Copper - PCU
Coal - JRCC
 
[quote author="bondtrader"]
thx for ur comments. i like reading ur internal tech details. what happened to ur blog?[/quote]

Thanks, I moved it to a new server about a month ago.

http://www.starinocean.com/iceman/blog
[/quote]
Great call on FAZ. I got stopped out of my Feb $30 VIX call that I sold for a small loss but I sold the Feb VIX $19 and $20 puts today and yesterday.
 
[quote author="USCTrojanCPA"]
[quote author="bondtrader"]
thx for ur comments. i like reading ur internal tech details. what happened to ur blog?[/quote]

Thanks, I moved it to a new server about a month ago.

http://www.starinocean.com/iceman/blog
[/quote]
Great call on FAZ. I got stopped out of my Feb $30 VIX call that I sold for a small loss but I sold the Feb VIX $19 and $20 puts today and yesterday.[/quote]



Good trade! Money in the pocket.
Interesting you mentioned VIX. At the beginning of this week, I thought about buying VXX (VIX ETN) instead of FAZ (which I traded hundreds of times) for a change. But I ended up still buying FAZ. By closing today, VXX went from 28 to about 32, FAZ went from 17 to 20, both gave you about 15%+, coincidence I guess <!-- s:) -->:)<!-- s:) -->
 
[quote author="Cubic Zirconia"]Back into FAS, BT? I missed the opportunity. Good money floated around.. Are you still in UUP?

[/quote]
Hey CZ, how was your trip to India? Selling VIX out-of-money calls and puts has been like taking candy from a baby this month.
 
[quote author="USCTrojanCPA"]
[quote author="Cubic Zirconia"]Back into FAS, BT? I missed the opportunity. Good money floated around.. Are you still in UUP?

[/quote]
Hey CZ, how was your trip to India? Selling VIX out-of-money calls and puts has been like taking candy from a baby this month. [/quote]

I had a wonderful time USC - ate, ate and ate some more:) I was stuck eating real kiddie candies and lost out a big money making opp.. there is always a next time.. hopefully:)
 
[quote author="Cubic Zirconia"]
[quote author="USCTrojanCPA"]
Hey CZ, how was your trip to India? Selling VIX out-of-money calls and puts has been like taking candy from a baby this month. [/quote]

I had a wonderful time USC - ate, ate and ate some more:) I was stuck eating real kiddie candies and lost out a big money making opp.. there is always a next time.. hopefully:)[/quote]
That's exactly what my dad does when he goes back to Poland...he gains 5-10lbs because the food is so good and fresh. Don't worry about the opportunities for trading profits...each new day brings new opportunities. <!-- s:cool: -->:cool:<!-- s:cool: -->
 
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6204P220100301

Stock buybacks hint at optimism about U.S. recovery

JPMorgan estimates that S&P 500 companies currently have $3.2 trillion of cash sitting on their balance sheets. Excluding the financial sector, the cash pile is $1.1 trillion, or 11 percent of assets, a 60-year high and well above the long-term average of 8 percent.

Stock buybacks, M&A, inventory replacement and Capex will lead us out of the dark...not the consumer or the homeowner.
 
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