I have been watching Crystal Cove as well. There are two homes that have come up on the NOD list in the past month, so some distress is there. The inventory issue is interesting. If you do not have to sell, and your neighbor with the same model and floor plan has been on the market for 200 days, why would you put you're property on the market?
I think there is some hidden stress buiding. Also, the SeaPoint homes are pretty nice, and Laing has not been bashful about pointing out that they are now pricing at $550 to $700 per square foot, and that if you are cash or pre aprroved, they would like the opportunity to discuss a mutually agreeable price point. If you can sell for $1,000.00 per square foot (which is the low side of most of the listings), why would a smart company like Laing sell for such a large discount? One of the things I mentioned in the Shady Canyon thread is that there is probably more "luxury" housing than there are people who can afford it. Perhaps Laing has internal studies that confirm this, and an economic model that shows a median for luxury well below it's current level.
The $500 to $700 per square foot price point would put pricing to about 2004 - 2005 levels.
Does anyone know what the Tides and SeaCrest sold at? These are interesting because they should define Crystal Cove as seperate from Newport Coast (larger floor plans, closer to the ocean), and the Pelicans (built by builders, as opposed to majority custom).