Coronavirus Recession

JIMHO, we need to prepare a lot of companies for GM bankruptcy type deals.  Or be prepared for many, many companies to BK.

The fighting chance of reopening isn't a fighting chance.  Just look at the the lack of ratio of people on TI indicating they will not be out buying.  The last 45 days of interruption, isn't recession or slow down, it isn't 5%, 10% drop in revenues, for many it is 80%, 90%,or 100% loss of revenues.  It isn't regional disaster affecting a city, it's national. 

Reopening, IMHO, is still denial or bargaining phase of grief over what has happened.  The local news had a coffee shop on the other day saying how they needed the small business bailout money.  How even though they're open for take out or whatever it's a couple hundred dollars are day, not enough to pay the people working let alone the rent, utilities or their suppliers.  Reopening isn't going to refill the coffee house.  Reopening isn't going to put JWA flights back to being full.

A month, if everything goes perfectly, if no hotspots occur, maybe, then people will trickle in more still depressed though, but if hotspots in Georgia start showing up, or other cities start showing up, it'l go down from the low point it's at.

The financial markets will crater then.

We need a plan for how we will bridge the business through, how we will remain whole with the big business like the airlines, auto makers, banks, Reits, PEs how they will survive with business after business not paying rent.  Can they close half of their retail centers?  What will be the terms, like the old GM bankruptcy, for the airlines threatening mass layoffs?

Lots to think about, lots to potentially try.  JIMHO, re-opening without a plan beyond reopening and just given them a fighting chance is like throwing your average sedentary mid-40s Irvine office worker into the octagon with the MMA champ after your corner showed him his wife banging the worker.

And yes our current half effort on the shutdown bailout isn't working either.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
I thought the Harvard thing was fake news.
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Harvard claimed the didn't apply, but Betsy Devos claimed they withdrew their application after facing public blowbacks.

Who should we believe?

Am I jaded to think that Harvard didn?t get to $40 billion by turning down $8 million?
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
Fed will make public who got the PPP loan, as it should since those funds are taxpayer funds.
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Will there be backlash for people who took the PPP loan like last time? (Tarp)
 
eyephone said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
Fed will make public who got the PPP loan, as it should since those funds are taxpayer funds.
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Will there be backlash for people who took the PPP loan like last time? (Tarp)
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They were already trying to shame some public companies. They article referred to them as large public companies. They had market caps of like 10-50million. Yes, still bigger than you typically small business but hey are still small themselves.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
I thought there was a 500 employee limit on these PPP loans... how are these larger companies getting them?
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I think restaurants are exempt from that 500 employee limit.
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
irvinehomeowner said:
I thought there was a 500 employee limit on these PPP loans... how are these larger companies getting them?
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I think restaurants are exempt from that 500 employee limit.
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to be more exact, as long as they have less than 500 employee at EACH location, then they are exempt from the limit...

Which restaurant is going to have 500 Employee at the same location?
 
nosuchreality said:
JIMHO, we need to prepare a lot of companies for GM bankruptcy type deals.  Or be prepared for many, many companies to BK.

The fighting chance of reopening isn't a fighting chance.  Just look at the the lack of ratio of people on TI indicating they will not be out buying.  The last 45 days of interruption, isn't recession or slow down, it isn't 5%, 10% drop in revenues, for many it is 80%, 90%,or 100% loss of revenues.  It isn't regional disaster affecting a city, it's national. 

Reopening, IMHO, is still denial or bargaining phase of grief over what has happened.  The local news had a coffee shop on the other day saying how they needed the small business bailout money.  How even though they're open for take out or whatever it's a couple hundred dollars are day, not enough to pay the people working let alone the rent, utilities or their suppliers.  Reopening isn't going to refill the coffee house.  Reopening isn't going to put JWA flights back to being full.

A month, if everything goes perfectly, if no hotspots occur, maybe, then people will trickle in more still depressed though, but if hotspots in Georgia start showing up, or other cities start showing up, it'l go down from the low point it's at.

The financial markets will crater then.

We need a plan for how we will bridge the business through, how we will remain whole with the big business like the airlines, auto makers, banks, Reits, PEs how they will survive with business after business not paying rent.  Can they close half of their retail centers?  What will be the terms, like the old GM bankruptcy, for the airlines threatening mass layoffs?

Lots to think about, lots to potentially try.  JIMHO, re-opening without a plan beyond reopening and just given them a fighting chance is like throwing your average sedentary mid-40s Irvine office worker into the octagon with the MMA champ after your corner showed him his wife banging the worker.

And yes our current half effort on the shutdown bailout isn't working either.
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Great post. I think the US will need a Marshall Plan-style initiative to resuscitate and rebuild our economy and society. This half effort shutdown bailout isn't going to do the trick.
 
They should have given priority to businesses based on employee count. 25 and under, then 100 and under, then 500 and under.

The smaller ones need it way more.
 
Anti-body testing in NY shows 14% have had it.  Again though, small sample and some caveats which I would say over-estimate the number infected.  While appearing to bode well,with the many of reportedinfections being hospitalized, it still is hospitalizing at 5-10X the flu rate and killing at 3X, and and infecting at twice the yearly total in a couple months.

Approximately 3,000 antibody samples were collected from 40 locations in 19 counties among people who were out of their homes and not self-isolating or quarantining.
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https://www.usnews.com/news/nationa...tibody-tests-show-infection-rate-of-nearly-14

 
nosuchreality said:
Anti-body testing in NY shows 14% have had it.  Again though, small sample and some caveats which I would say over-estimate the number infected.  While appearing to bode well,with the many of reportedinfections being hospitalized, it still is hospitalizing at 5-10X the flu rate and killing at 3X, and and infecting at twice the yearly total in a couple months.

Approximately 3,000 antibody samples were collected from 40 locations in 19 counties among people who were out of their homes and not self-isolating or quarantining.
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https://www.usnews.com/news/nationa...tibody-tests-show-infection-rate-of-nearly-14
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Adding a dose of reality to this.

NYC Health Dept has sent alert to all medical providers advising *not* to use anti-body tests to diagnose prior covid infection nor to assess immunity.

This is due to high rate of false negatives/positives and uncertainty about how immunity works.

Anti-body tests do, however, remain extremely useful to determine whether volunteers can donate plasma to patients still battling covid.
 
qwerty said:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/pub...n-whether-to-return-small-business-loans.html

Glad to see some of the companies are not giving the money back. Their employees are just as important as the traditional small business employees
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Sorry bro... I have to disagree with you here. Larger public companies have more access to capital and finance leverage than small businesses, especially the mom/pop eateries.

I'd much rather see I Can BBQ get a loan than Shake Shack or Ruth's Chris.

 
JIMHO, if you?ve gone public you should use the capital markets. If you have institutional investors, hedge Funds, private equity  with stakes in you, the we the taxpayer deserve our slice as the angel investor that is saving the business.

If you?re private and not cashing out with PE, then it?s livlihood.  Otherwise it?s just an investment.
 
Next time when your company call for a mass ZOOM meeting, this could be one of the outcome.

"Like A Black Mirror Episode": Company Laid Off 406 People In 2-Minute Zoom Call


A California-based startup that's seen recent success as a popular electric scooter rental service in cities across the nation appears to have set a record in terms of number of employees laid off on the spot in the least amount of time.

Bird, which is headquartered in Santa Monica, but maintains clusters of employees nationwide that must service and oversee its fleet of 'Bird scooters' including app developers ? invited 406 employees to attend what the company called a "COVID-19 Update" Zoom meeting on March 27. And then a massacre ensued... a two-minute massacre.

"Once employees logged onto the one-way meeting, a woman?s voice began reading a script, informing the attendees that they had all been laid off in a 2-minute speech," SF Gate describes.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/black-mirror-episode-company-laid-406-people-2-minute-zoom-call
 
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