Calculated Risk does a for sale, for lease video in Newport Beach

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Anonymous_IHB

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<A href="http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/05/cant-sell-try-renting.html ">http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/05/cant-sell-try-renting.html</A>
 
Found this in the comments:

<em>CR writes: ...that first house is at 721 Narcissus CA 92625 and is listed for $2.4 million... They are asking $5,000 a month for a lease.



Anyone else here do the same math that I just did, and come out with the same conclusion that something is way out-of-whack here? </em>



GRM ouch!
 
[quote author="Mcdonna1980" date=1242214405]Found this in the comments:

<em>CR writes: ...that first house is at 721 Narcissus CA 92625 and is listed for $2.4 million... They are asking $5,000 a month for a lease.



Anyone else here do the same math that I just did, and come out with the same conclusion that something is way out-of-whack here? </em>



GRM ouch!</blockquote>


This is one of the reasons I now believe the beach communities are going to see 65%-70% price declines.
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1242214591][quote author="Mcdonna1980" date=1242214405]Found this in the comments:

<em>CR writes: ...that first house is at 721 Narcissus CA 92625 and is listed for $2.4 million... They are asking $5,000 a month for a lease.



Anyone else here do the same math that I just did, and come out with the same conclusion that something is way out-of-whack here? </em>



GRM ouch!</blockquote>


This is one of the reasons I now believe the beach communities are going to see 65%-70% price declines.</blockquote>


No... no... the high end is immune! I mean, the 200% increase in NODs is just a seasonal blip, most of them have the money to pay their loans off in cash, or they will get loan mods. At least that is what the moron brigade tells me over at Lansner's blog. Really, they are f*cked.



http://i41.tinypic.com/24zvpj9.jpg



And to confirm that even original owners are not immune, <a href="http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2006-Beryl-Ln-Newport-Beach-CA-92660/25213028_zpid/">this place in Newport was picked up at the auction today for $305k</a>. They owed $81k, and their prop taxes were $937 a year. Kinda sad actually. Even if it is a tear down, at that price you are looking at $100-$200k in profit. If you don't tear it down, $400k profit no problem. I am seeing a lot more deals in Newport at the auction, CDM included. Which proves Dimmy is a fake, and just likes to rile up the bears.
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1242214591][quote author="Mcdonna1980" date=1242214405]Found this in the comments:

<em>CR writes: ...that first house is at 721 Narcissus CA 92625 and is listed for $2.4 million... They are asking $5,000 a month for a lease.



Anyone else here do the same math that I just did, and come out with the same conclusion that something is way out-of-whack here? </em>



GRM ouch!</blockquote>


This is one of the reasons I now believe the beach communities are going to see 65%-70% price declines.</blockquote>


Payback is a #####.



<img src="http://flyboyz.files.wordpress.com/2008/04/pulp-fiction.jpg" alt="" />
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1242221252][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1242214591][quote author="Mcdonna1980" date=1242214405]Found this in the comments:

<em>CR writes: ...that first house is at 721 Narcissus CA 92625 and is listed for $2.4 million... They are asking $5,000 a month for a lease.



Anyone else here do the same math that I just did, and come out with the same conclusion that something is way out-of-whack here? </em>



GRM ouch!</blockquote>


This is one of the reasons I now believe the beach communities are going to see 65%-70% price declines.</blockquote>


No... no... the high end is immune! I mean, the 200% increase in NODs is just a seasonal blip, most of them have the money to pay their loans off in cash, or they will get loan mods. At least that is what the moron brigade tells me over at Lansner's blog. Really, they are f*cked.



http://i41.tinypic.com/24zvpj9.jpg



And to confirm that even original owners are not immune, <a href="http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2006-Beryl-Ln-Newport-Beach-CA-92660/25213028_zpid/">this place in Newport was picked up at the auction today for $305k</a>. They owed $81k, and their prop taxes were $937 a year. Kinda sad actually. Even if it is a tear down, at that price you are looking at $100-$200k in profit. If you don't tear it down, $400k profit no problem. I am seeing a lot more deals in Newport at the auction, CDM included. Which proves Dimmy is a fake, and just likes to rile up the bears.</blockquote>


How the heck did that one go for only $350K at auction? That makes no sense, given the lower price homes in Westcliff/Dover Shores area have been selling relatively briskly in the 850K range. Even as land value it would fetch at least 650K, would it not? Something doesnt jive.
 
[quote author="Maltese" date=1242222403]How the heck did that one go for only $350K at auction? That makes no sense, given the lower price homes in Westcliff/Dover Shores area have been selling relatively briskly in the 850K range. Even as land value it would fetch at least 650K, would it not? Something doesnt jive.</blockquote>


See... that's the thing at the foreclosure auction. Some homes slip through the cracks. Some of the old school guys don't know about the new school technology out there, and some great deals can be had. You just need to know how to play it, you can't show your hand, and you better not look like you are bluffing. Plus, it has been busy at the auction, so funds/liquidity may have been tied up, and those that normally would have been bidding couldn't. I know of a couple of $1mil bids that have been taken down in recent weeks, so funds are tight. Like I said, you just need to know how to play your hand.
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1242214591][quote author="Mcdonna1980" date=1242214405]Found this in the comments:

<em>CR writes: ...that first house is at 721 Narcissus CA 92625 and is listed for $2.4 million... They are asking $5,000 a month for a lease.



Anyone else here do the same math that I just did, and come out with the same conclusion that something is way out-of-whack here? </em>



GRM ouch!</blockquote>


This is one of the reasons I now believe the beach communities are going to see 65%-70% price declines.</blockquote>


Poor Jimmy.
 
[quote author="Maltese" date=1242222403][quote author="graphrix" date=1242221252][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1242214591][quote author="Mcdonna1980" date=1242214405]Found this in the comments:

<em>CR writes: ...that first house is at 721 Narcissus CA 92625 and is listed for $2.4 million... They are asking $5,000 a month for a lease.



Anyone else here do the same math that I just did, and come out with the same conclusion that something is way out-of-whack here? </em>



GRM ouch!</blockquote>


This is one of the reasons I now believe the beach communities are going to see 65%-70% price declines.</blockquote>


No... no... the high end is immune! I mean, the 200% increase in NODs is just a seasonal blip, most of them have the money to pay their loans off in cash, or they will get loan mods. At least that is what the moron brigade tells me over at Lansner's blog. Really, they are f*cked.



http://i41.tinypic.com/24zvpj9.jpg



And to confirm that even original owners are not immune, <a href="http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2006-Beryl-Ln-Newport-Beach-CA-92660/25213028_zpid/">this place in Newport was picked up at the auction today for $305k</a>. They owed $81k, and their prop taxes were $937 a year. Kinda sad actually. Even if it is a tear down, at that price you are looking at $100-$200k in profit. If you don't tear it down, $400k profit no problem. I am seeing a lot more deals in Newport at the auction, CDM included. Which proves Dimmy is a fake, and just likes to rile up the bears.</blockquote>


How the heck did that one go for only $350K at auction? That makes no sense, given the lower price homes in Westcliff/Dover Shores area have been selling relatively briskly in the 850K range. Even as land value it would fetch at least 650K, would it not? Something doesnt jive.</blockquote>


At the auction, the bidder must have cash. How many folks can bid with cash?

It may speak to the difference between what a house is worth using one's own money or using the banks money and it may speak to how prices are inflated because of a fractional reserve banking system.
 
Wow, that Beryl house is an amazing deal. even if it needed some fix-up, similar houses have been going in the 800s, as Maltese said. And those that have been pergranteeled over the past few years are still hitting the 900s-1000s.



Of course, that whole neighborhood was in the 300s during the 90s, so maybe that is where they will be again in a year or two, and you won't need all cash.
 
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1242259115]Wow, that Beryl house is an amazing deal. even if it needed some fix-up, similar houses have been going in the 800s, as Maltese said. And those that have been pergranteeled over the past few years are still hitting the 900s-1000s.



Of course, that whole neighborhood was in the 300s during the 90s, so maybe that is where they will be again in a year or two, and you won't need all cash.</blockquote>
I'd be the first in line to buy a fixer over there if it was around $300k with 20% down. I'd say a 1,300 to 1,600 sf home would be perfect for me.
 
I didn't see the Beryl house on fidelityasap.com. Does anyone know when it sold or if there was any "story" with the house? That does seem EXTREMELY cheap.
 
I'd borrow the money from family to buy something like that for $300K and then take out a mortgage and pay them back with a nice bonus.





RE the flower streets....In early to mid 2003 the older bungalows could be picked up for $700K. You couldn't believe how fast they would raze them and put up the gaudy McMansion with a one or two bedroom apartment in the rear. Just about every lot is an R2.



There's something about the acoustics and the proximity of your next door neighbor that causes the noise to amplify on the flower streets. When the kid next door or even across the street is throwing a temper tantrum it sounds like he's in your own living room. The year the brat next door was going through his terrible two's we had to keep the windows closed.
 
nevermind, I see that they call it a preview. It would be nice to see them all just to know the quantity not necessarily the specific address.



how come when you search a zip on FR using the free function there are only a fraction of the number of balls as Graph gets? I put in 92625 and only about 20 come up.
 
[quote author="stepping_up" date=1242261086]nevermind, I see that they call it a preview. It would be nice to see them all just to know the quantity not necessarily the specific address.



how come when you search a zip on FR using the free function there are only a fraction of the number of balls as Graph gets? I put in 92625 and only about 20 come up.</blockquote>


<em>I'm going to stay away from the comment about Graphrix and his balls.</em>

Here's today's shot of 92625:

<img src="http://irvinerealtorsite.com/92625_05132009.JPG" alt="" />



Thank you,

-IR2
 
<a href="http://247wallst.com/2009/05/13/willing-renting-be-the-undoing-of-home-prices/">Will renting be the undoing of home prices?</a>

<em>What has been lost in the review of home buying and renting habits is that some people who own a home will decide never to buy one again. The reaction to losing so much money on what is the largest investment many people will ever have will be, in many cases that they will not come back to the real estate market again. People who have suffered through anxious months not knowing if they will be able to pay their mortgages may decide that it is not an experience they want to repeat.</em>



<em>Renting was considered a fool?s way of living just a decade ago. A renter could not get equity in a property like the one that his homeowner friends had. A new house could double in value in ten years, offering the owner ready access to capital, a way to educate children and pay for vacations. With very few people willing to believe that those benefits are still a part of owning a home, the incentives to buy one have dwindled.</em>
 
[quote author="Mcdonna1980" date=1242267388]<a href="http://247wallst.com/2009/05/13/willing-renting-be-the-undoing-of-home-prices/">Will renting be the undoing of home prices?</a>

<em>What has been lost in the review of home buying and renting habits is that some people who own a home will decide never to buy one again. The reaction to losing so much money on what is the largest investment many people will ever have will be, in many cases that they will not come back to the real estate market again. People who have suffered through anxious months not knowing if they will be able to pay their mortgages may decide that it is not an experience they want to repeat.</em>



<em>Renting was considered a fool?s way of living just a decade ago. A renter could not get equity in a property like the one that his homeowner friends had. A new house could double in value in ten years, offering the owner ready access to capital, a way to educate children and pay for vacations. With very few people willing to believe that those benefits are still a part of owning a home, the incentives to buy one have dwindled.</em></blockquote>


I think more people will do the rent vs. own math before purchasing a house, as opposed to wanting to own a house for it's own sake. There's no reason that renting has to be cheaper than owning-in some places, namely my hood of Riverside, it's already backwards, with owning significantly cheaper than renting.
 
Hah, that implies that many/most people can move their brains from "who's on dancing with the stars tonight" to ***math***.



not going to happen. most people are sheep, and do what everyone else is doing.
 
[quote author="wardp" date=1242260326]I didn't see the Beryl house on fidelityasap.com. Does anyone know when it sold or if there was any "story" with the house? That does seem EXTREMELY cheap.</blockquote>


That's because it was at the Placentia auction, not Santa Ana. <a href="http://www.priorityposting.com/">Placentia info can found here</a>. See below for story on the house.





[quote author="stepping_up" date=1242261086]nevermind, I see that they call it a preview. It would be nice to see them all just to know the quantity not necessarily the specific address.



how come when you search a zip on FR using the free function there are only a fraction of the number of balls as Graph gets? I put in 92625 and only about 20 come up.</blockquote>


Even if you had a FR account you wouldn't have seen the one on Beryl. I don't know why, but for some reason none of the foreclosure websites have all the foreclosures. I also found two in NC that are not showing up on FR, but they are certainly showing active and scheduled for the auction this month. FR is the best, but unfortunately it is not perfect.



After doing some research on the Beryl property, it was indeed the second lien that someone bid on. Normally, that would be nutty, because you are in second position, and you have no way of taking over the first or guarantee that they will even default first. Here is the rub, the second lien they took out six months after the first was never subordinated behind the first, so technically the second lien is in first position and technically the first is now the second and screwed. I would imagine they might have a legal fight ahead of them, but since the second lien was never properly put into second position, then they should have the house. Oops, that escrow/title company really screwed up, and so did the lender. Oh well, that's what you get when you have a industry run by a bunch of schleps who should never have been in the business in the first place.
 
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