At what point in the rate cycle would you pass on home buying?

[irvinehomeowner]

Back when I was a first-time buyers... I don't even remember rates being a consideration.

All I did was figure out how much I had to pay each month for a certain range of prices and let that be my guide.

Then back in the 90s/00s, there was that fancy ARM financing that could let you get more for less... even today, with ARMs vs fixed, you can still play that game.

There is always something that can get you into a house you can afford... just as long as you can actually afford it.

If we don't stay in our current home forever, will probably downsize because the kids should be on their own by then... so hopefully equity will help with rates are in the 20s and 2-bedroom 1-story homes cost $3m.

 

[Burn That Belly]

x

 

[fortune11]

While I am generally of the opinion that rates dont really matter as long as affordability (people's perception of future income prospects) remains high,  higher rates will dampen speculative activity / flipping on the margin, which may not be a bad thing. 

 

[Liar Loan]

Goldman: Something strange is happening with the US economy that could cause interest rates to jump

America's budget deficit and unemployment rate are heading in opposite directions ? something that's never happened during post World War II peacetime and could cause a significant jump in interest rates.

To meet the growing debt load, the U.S. will have to issue more bonds at a time when the Federal Reserve is no longer a player in the market.

More supply and fewer buyers will mean the government will have to pay investors more to buy U.S. debt. And that will mean higher interest rates.

Goldman specifically projects the benchmark U.S. Treasury note will be yielding 3.6 percent by the end of 2019, up from a shade below 3 percent where it's trading now and at a point where it could start applying pressure to economic growth.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/14/gol...connect-could-fuel-higher-interest-rates.html

I would add that not only is the Fed not buying Treasuries any longer, but they are actually unwinding their balance sheet by selling the bonds that they purchased during the crisis.

tic, tic, tic...

 

[irvinebullhousing]

Goldman: Something strange is happening with the US economy that could cause interest rates to jump

America's budget deficit and unemployment rate are heading in opposite directions ? something that's never happened during post World War II peacetime and could cause a significant jump in interest rates.

To meet the growing debt load, the U.S. will have to issue more bonds at a time when the Federal Reserve is no longer a player in the market.

More supply and fewer buyers will mean the government will have to pay investors more to buy U.S. debt. And that will mean higher interest rates.

Goldman specifically projects the benchmark U.S. Treasury note will be yielding 3.6 percent by the end of 2019, up from a shade below 3 percent where it's trading now and at a point where it could start applying pressure to economic growth.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/14/gol...connect-could-fuel-higher-interest-rates.html

I would add that not only is the Fed not buying Treasuries any longer, but they are actually unwinding their balance sheet by selling the bonds that they purchased during the crisis.

tic, tic, tic...

All pointings  to higher rates. Would be a very interesting housing market to watch later this year and next year.

 

[eyephone]

Goldman: Something strange is happening with the US economy that could cause interest rates to jump

America's budget deficit and unemployment rate are heading in opposite directions ? something that's never happened during post World War II peacetime and could cause a significant jump in interest rates.

To meet the growing debt load, the U.S. will have to issue more bonds at a time when the Federal Reserve is no longer a player in the market.

More supply and fewer buyers will mean the government will have to pay investors more to buy U.S. debt. And that will mean higher interest rates.

Goldman specifically projects the benchmark U.S. Treasury note will be yielding 3.6 percent by the end of 2019, up from a shade below 3 percent where it's trading now and at a point where it could start applying pressure to economic growth.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/14/gol...connect-could-fuel-higher-interest-rates.html

I would add that not only is the Fed not buying Treasuries any longer, but they are actually unwinding their balance sheet by selling the bonds that they purchased during the crisis.

tic, tic, tic...

All pointings  to higher rates. Would be a very interesting housing market to watch later this year and next year.

Like I previously predicted.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

Goldman: Something strange is happening with the US economy that could cause interest rates to jump

America's budget deficit and unemployment rate are heading in opposite directions ? something that's never happened during post World War II peacetime and could cause a significant jump in interest rates.

To meet the growing debt load, the U.S. will have to issue more bonds at a time when the Federal Reserve is no longer a player in the market.

More supply and fewer buyers will mean the government will have to pay investors more to buy U.S. debt. And that will mean higher interest rates.

Goldman specifically projects the benchmark U.S. Treasury note will be yielding 3.6 percent by the end of 2019, up from a shade below 3 percent where it's trading now and at a point where it could start applying pressure to economic growth.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/14/gol...connect-could-fuel-higher-interest-rates.html

I would add that not only is the Fed not buying Treasuries any longer, but they are actually unwinding their balance sheet by selling the bonds that they purchased during the crisis.

tic, tic, tic...

All pointings  to higher rates. Would be a very interesting housing market to watch later this year and next year.

Like I previously predicted.

So what did you predicted?

 

[eyephone]

Goldman: Something strange is happening with the US economy that could cause interest rates to jump

America's budget deficit and unemployment rate are heading in opposite directions ? something that's never happened during post World War II peacetime and could cause a significant jump in interest rates.

To meet the growing debt load, the U.S. will have to issue more bonds at a time when the Federal Reserve is no longer a player in the market.

More supply and fewer buyers will mean the government will have to pay investors more to buy U.S. debt. And that will mean higher interest rates.

Goldman specifically projects the benchmark U.S. Treasury note will be yielding 3.6 percent by the end of 2019, up from a shade below 3 percent where it's trading now and at a point where it could start applying pressure to economic growth.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/14/gol...connect-could-fuel-higher-interest-rates.html

I would add that not only is the Fed not buying Treasuries any longer, but they are actually unwinding their balance sheet by selling the bonds that they purchased during the crisis.

tic, tic, tic...

All pointings  to higher rates. Would be a very interesting housing market to watch later this year and next year.

Like I previously predicted.

So what did you predicted?

High interest rates hurts businesses that borrow and potential home buyers. The banks love high interest rates.

 

[usctrojancpa]

Goldman: Something strange is happening with the US economy that could cause interest rates to jump

America's budget deficit and unemployment rate are heading in opposite directions ? something that's never happened during post World War II peacetime and could cause a significant jump in interest rates.

To meet the growing debt load, the U.S. will have to issue more bonds at a time when the Federal Reserve is no longer a player in the market.

More supply and fewer buyers will mean the government will have to pay investors more to buy U.S. debt. And that will mean higher interest rates.

Goldman specifically projects the benchmark U.S. Treasury note will be yielding 3.6 percent by the end of 2019, up from a shade below 3 percent where it's trading now and at a point where it could start applying pressure to economic growth.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/14/gol...connect-could-fuel-higher-interest-rates.html

I would add that not only is the Fed not buying Treasuries any longer, but they are actually unwinding their balance sheet by selling the bonds that they purchased during the crisis.

tic, tic, tic...

All pointings  to higher rates. Would be a very interesting housing market to watch later this year and next year.

Like I previously predicted.

So what did you predicted?

High interest rates hurts businesses that borrow and potential home buyers. The banks love high interest rates.

To be more specific, banks love a steep yield curve since they borrow short (checking/saving accounts) and lend long.  The real red flag will be when the yield curve goes negative (aka when short term rates are higher than long term rates).

 

[Liar Loan]

Blast off!!

US 10-year Treasury yield jumps to highest level since 2011 above 3.07%https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/15/us-treasurys-tick-lower-as-investors-wait-for-a-new-auction.html

Mortgage rates are surging to the highest level in 7 yearshttps://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/15/mortgage-rates-are-surging-to-the-highest-level-in-7-years.html