ipoplaya_IHB
New member
graphrix said:
Now Cracker-Cakes, not everyone in LV is cooking up Speed... Could just a couple of honest hookers or maybe a cocktail waitress or two...
Anyone interested in going 50-50 with me on a condo purchase in Vegas for under $100k?
- Thread starter usctrojanman29_IHB
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NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
Now Cracker-Cakes, not everyone in LV is cooking up Speed... Could just a couple of honest hookers or maybe a cocktail waitress or two...
However those companies never offer Bellagio or Wynn accommodation. HoJo package is not very attractive.
They are probably selling for below rental parity in Detroit too... Why not buy there?
Does being a sh1thole really matter? If you are investing in properties outside of the local area, wouldn't it be wise to consider a myriad of alternatives? ROI has nothing to do with how redeeming an area is does it... Maybe you can pick up a place in Detroit that is much further below rental parity, throws off more monthly income/cashflow? Why would it being a sh1thole matter if you are buying for investment gain?
Renting to some lower income minority groups can be a good investment. You won't get the highest rent, but the upside is that the income will be more reliable and the tenants will be far less demanding (i.e. your expenses and mental aggravatoin are much lower). In my experience, FOB Asians and orthodox Jews are great tenants.
Herd behavior, both are sh1tholes. Anyone thinking that the casinos will make a comeback because that is what people do, is snorting the Kool-Aid. This coming from Ipo, a former Kool-Aid snorter, is proof that Vegas is going to get pounded worse than he ever expects, and since I have not been pessimistic enough it will get pounded worse than I expect.
I wouldn't touch the Vegas area with Ten's, Ipo's, Deuce's, or anyone I have met or have not met, Johnson.
Did the visual not hit you, did you not see reality? Because... I would ne willing to hit up the Vegas area with Ten's, Ipo's, Deuce's, and anyone's else's johnson when the time is right. But, I saw the foreclosures of the Vegas area, and I wouldn't even encourage some of the nutters on Lansner's blog to invest in that.
Come dude, do I really have to PM you on how bad of an idea buying in the Vegas area is? You think you sell early on your stock ideas, but this is just the same... you are buying way too early. Look at the foreclosures I posted again, because I might be coming in and buying a similar place to yours, but for less than half you paid.
Cramer is wrong on so many fronts, but he is right on doing your homework, and you have not done your homework even the answers have been given to you.
The Nevada Brothel association says revenue is off 25% of late. With interstate trucking slowed by the economy, less willing spenders are on the road through NV... Heck, a bunch of brothels have apparently closed starting last year. If sex isn't selling, you know NV is in trouble.
Now Cracker-Cakes, not everyone in LV is cooking up Speed... Could just a couple of honest hookers or maybe a cocktail waitress or two...
bkshopr_IHB
New member
No, I will not invest $50k in a Vegas condo. I would rather throw the money in a wishing well which at least I can hear the sound of splashing water. Money in a Condo get sucked up into a blackhole. This is not the right timing and especially in Vegas. Wynn is offering its rooms for $139/night.
High Gravity_IHB
New member
You can be a low-roller and still stay in Vegas for free if you are willing to listen to a 2 hr timeshare pitch.
bkshopr_IHB
New member
High Gravity said:
However those companies never offer Bellagio or Wynn accommodation. HoJo package is not very attractive.
usctrojanman29_IHB
New member
Who said anything about investing $50k? The downpayment that would be required is 20% or about $20k. The reality is that these condos are selling for below rental parity so in my eyes there's potential here.bkshopr said:
ipoplaya_IHB
New member
usctrojanman29 said:
They are probably selling for below rental parity in Detroit too... Why not buy there?
usctrojanman29_IHB
New member
Comparing Detroit to Las Vegas is a joke. Detroit is a sh1thole and Vegas is actually pretty decent (I lived there for 2 years). Besides, Casinos are like roaches...they'll be back before you know it.ipoplaya said:
ipoplaya_IHB
New member
usctrojanman29 said:
Does being a sh1thole really matter? If you are investing in properties outside of the local area, wouldn't it be wise to consider a myriad of alternatives? ROI has nothing to do with how redeeming an area is does it... Maybe you can pick up a place in Detroit that is much further below rental parity, throws off more monthly income/cashflow? Why would it being a sh1thole matter if you are buying for investment gain?
biscuitninja_IHB
New member
I have a buddy that has quite a few apartments in Long Beach/Texas/AZ. His whole theme is "SlumLord". He does quite well.... While its not a path I would take, it is something that he enjoys (he is an ex engineer) and has turned into a very profitable venture. Anyways good luck
-bix
-bix
High Gravity_IHB
New member
biscuitninja said:
Renting to some lower income minority groups can be a good investment. You won't get the highest rent, but the upside is that the income will be more reliable and the tenants will be far less demanding (i.e. your expenses and mental aggravatoin are much lower). In my experience, FOB Asians and orthodox Jews are great tenants.
usctrojanman29_IHB
New member
First of all, I liked in Vegas and know the area fairly well. Second, my dad lives in Las Vegas and manages my 2 properties out there since he is semi-retired. And finally, the casinos will be back...they provide a service until the Big 3 auto markets. Besides, would you rather live in Detroit or Las Vegas if you had a choice? I'm not investing my life savings, just throwing a little money into a cash flow positive investment which has potential for a more than decent longer-term return. Think about it, if I buy a condo for $100k and sell it for $120k (just as an example) I stand to make a 100% return on my 20% downpayment. Rents aren't going to drop from $900-$1000 to $500 for these units, especially if you believe sooner or later inflation will coming into play.ipoplaya said:
usctrojanman29_IHB
New member
Exactly, it's worked out pretty well for me. Cash flow positive + tax shelter = a good thing. The other benefit that I have is my dad manages the properties for me and can fix just about anything and I'm pretty handy myself. Sure, I'd love to pick up another rental property in Southern California but nothing is close to rental parity in the decent areas yet.High Gravity said:
freedomCM_IHB
New member
freedomCM said:
graphrix_IHB
New member
usctrojanman29 said:
Herd behavior, both are sh1tholes. Anyone thinking that the casinos will make a comeback because that is what people do, is snorting the Kool-Aid. This coming from Ipo, a former Kool-Aid snorter, is proof that Vegas is going to get pounded worse than he ever expects, and since I have not been pessimistic enough it will get pounded worse than I expect.
I wouldn't touch the Vegas area with Ten's, Ipo's, Deuce's, or anyone I have met or have not met, Johnson.
Did the visual not hit you, did you not see reality? Because... I would ne willing to hit up the Vegas area with Ten's, Ipo's, Deuce's, and anyone's else's johnson when the time is right. But, I saw the foreclosures of the Vegas area, and I wouldn't even encourage some of the nutters on Lansner's blog to invest in that.
Come dude, do I really have to PM you on how bad of an idea buying in the Vegas area is? You think you sell early on your stock ideas, but this is just the same... you are buying way too early. Look at the foreclosures I posted again, because I might be coming in and buying a similar place to yours, but for less than half you paid.
Cramer is wrong on so many fronts, but he is right on doing your homework, and you have not done your homework even the answers have been given to you.
usctrojanman29_IHB
New member
I understand that it looks ugly out there in terms of foreclosures, but I hardly doubt the condo in this complex will trade at less than $40 per square foot. What is your prediction of where prices bottom in Vegas? You do realize that Vegas began the downturn early like the IE so it will most likely find the bottom before Irvine finds bottom. The reason it got hammered early, even before the carnage in the IE, was because it was the home of the flippers. I'm sure you know better than I do that it's the investment home keys that get thrown back to the bank first before primary residence keys get thrown back to the bank. I will agree with you on one thing, if the casinos do implode and close up shop then prices will go below $50/sf but I don't see that happening. Gaming revenues are off 10% from last year, not 50%.graphrix said:
graphrix_IHB
New member
First and foremost, I hope you understand that I am not trying to challenge you like I have in the past or like you are some bull trolling for business, but that I see you as a level headed IHBer who has taken the advice of myself and many others like me. I know you are a smart guy, and you have proven that by selling your condo and by trading the way that you have. I am just trying to give you the same advice I would in the trading thread, and like you have mentioned selling too early on stocks/options, I think you are buying too early here. From your post, I feel like you are trying to convince and justify to yourself this is a good investment, because you are not convincing me. Allow me to explain...
I disagree.
1. Just because the downturn started sooner in Vegas doesn't mean that it will recover sooner. They had a much higher run up, and the fundamentals were never ever there, and three times as worse than OC. As history has shown us, the OC market takes longer to fall and doesn't fall as hard as markets like Vegas or Peenix. Go look at the stats from the 90s, the spreads were much, much higher in Vegas and Peenix, and they are and will be again.
2. Foreclosures continue to increase in Vegas, and NODs continue to increase in Vegas. The velocity of both have not changed and it continues to be on the same pace.
3. I don't know what price or when the bottom will be, but stabilization will be the indicator that it has arrived. Judging by point #2, it isn't here yet, and it is no where near in sight. I do know, that I will be able to pick up a condo like this in the same complex as this, but it will have a higher positive cash flow at $850 a month than you will have. Why? Fundamentals and history have said so, and will say so again.
True, but you are not taking into account the effect flippers have on buyers who drank the Kool-Aid, and the continued increases in NODs and foreclosures confirm this. It is not getting better, it is getting worse. Think of the flippers like cancer, now the disease is spreading to all parts of the market. Those that have savings are still hanging on, but now even they are losing their jobs. And what do you think will happen to them? Where will they get jobs, the casinos?...
Gaming revenues off 10% is like OC seeing a 25% drop in jobs of the professional and business services sector. Consider that leisure and hospitality account for more than 1/3rd of the jobs in Vegas, and you add in construction jobs to account for nearly half of all the jobs in Vegas, then with all the cut backs, where the f*ck are these people going to work? Come on my friend... this isn't calculating the Theta on an option contract, this is the first couple of chapters of econ 101. This is not something, someone as intelligent as you have proven yourself to be, buys into. I just did your homework for you, and while that may have worked for you at SC, it ain't gonna work here. Next time I will send you a bill, and if you don't pay up, I will send Ipo to go all 909 on you to collect.
usctrojanman29 said:
I disagree.
1. Just because the downturn started sooner in Vegas doesn't mean that it will recover sooner. They had a much higher run up, and the fundamentals were never ever there, and three times as worse than OC. As history has shown us, the OC market takes longer to fall and doesn't fall as hard as markets like Vegas or Peenix. Go look at the stats from the 90s, the spreads were much, much higher in Vegas and Peenix, and they are and will be again.
2. Foreclosures continue to increase in Vegas, and NODs continue to increase in Vegas. The velocity of both have not changed and it continues to be on the same pace.
3. I don't know what price or when the bottom will be, but stabilization will be the indicator that it has arrived. Judging by point #2, it isn't here yet, and it is no where near in sight. I do know, that I will be able to pick up a condo like this in the same complex as this, but it will have a higher positive cash flow at $850 a month than you will have. Why? Fundamentals and history have said so, and will say so again.
True, but you are not taking into account the effect flippers have on buyers who drank the Kool-Aid, and the continued increases in NODs and foreclosures confirm this. It is not getting better, it is getting worse. Think of the flippers like cancer, now the disease is spreading to all parts of the market. Those that have savings are still hanging on, but now even they are losing their jobs. And what do you think will happen to them? Where will they get jobs, the casinos?...
Gaming revenues off 10% is like OC seeing a 25% drop in jobs of the professional and business services sector. Consider that leisure and hospitality account for more than 1/3rd of the jobs in Vegas, and you add in construction jobs to account for nearly half of all the jobs in Vegas, then with all the cut backs, where the f*ck are these people going to work? Come on my friend... this isn't calculating the Theta on an option contract, this is the first couple of chapters of econ 101. This is not something, someone as intelligent as you have proven yourself to be, buys into. I just did your homework for you, and while that may have worked for you at SC, it ain't gonna work here. Next time I will send you a bill, and if you don't pay up, I will send Ipo to go all 909 on you to collect.
ipoplaya_IHB
New member
usctrojanman29 said:
The Nevada Brothel association says revenue is off 25% of late. With interstate trucking slowed by the economy, less willing spenders are on the road through NV... Heck, a bunch of brothels have apparently closed starting last year. If sex isn't selling, you know NV is in trouble.
Trooper_IHB
New member
Don't forget once the "absolute auctions" start rolling, some of these places might sell for peanuts because no one else is bidding. That's what happened in my old condo complex in CT in the early 90's. I had bought for 70K and several years later a unit identical to mine sold for 3K at absolute auction. Yes, I said $3000.00. Several others went in the 5K range.
The banks had hundreds of units like mine on their tax rolls....they just wanted to dump the liability and get them off the books.
The banks had hundreds of units like mine on their tax rolls....they just wanted to dump the liability and get them off the books.