Another 20%-25% drop in the next 3-4 Years in Irvine?

First, I know of this company called Oracle here. When my uncle Larry comes to visit the office here in Costa Mesa, he likes to take me out on his yacht for lunch. He told me they can't hire enough quality people here, and that they have a lot of nice contracts, like the ones they have with the Navy. He tells me they pay well too, in fact the same wages here as in San Jose. Funny that.



<a href="http://www.labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov/?pageid=170">Of course if you look at the EDD site</a>, then you might be able to back up your theories about the wages and job growth.



Fact #1 The average wage in OC for the comp and IS sector is $62 a hour.



Fact #2 The average wage in Santa Clara for the comp and IS sector is $63 a hour.



Fact #3 The median home price is $485k in OC, but $630k in SC, and that means you would make less in SJ than OC if you owned a home.



Fact #4 The net & data sector is predicted to grow the most by 56% in OC, but only 44% in SC, and yet the raw numbers are pretty much the same.



Fact #5 RE and credit account for 3% of the labor force in SC, but 4.4% in OC. Not a big deal seeing as how OC is/was one the largest concentrations of subprime land, and OC has shed way more jobs in these sectors compared to SC.



Fact #6 Job growth has been paltry in both OC and SC.



I'm not saying that the OC job market is all that great, but to say it doesn't offer the same opportunities in the tech sector is... well... just so completely ignorant it makes you sound like a cheerleading realturd saying it is better to buy (get a tech job in SC) than to rent (try to get a tech job in OC you loser). Hopefully people don't figure out that the opportunities are just as good here for the tech sector, and the cost of living is cheaper, because we don't need any more arrogant and ignorant fools here. We are trying to purge the realturds and mortgage schleps from the system, hopefully we can send some your way since you will need them with all the job opportunities you have there. [smiley]
 
<em>The average wage in OC for the comp and IS sector is $62 a hour</em>



Whoa. I didn't apply myself hard enough in school, apparently.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1217950556]First, I know of this company called Oracle here. When my uncle Larry comes to visit the office here in Costa Mesa, he likes to take me out on his yacht for lunch. He told me they can't hire enough quality people here, and that they have a lot of nice contracts, like the ones they have with the Navy. He tells me they pay well too, in fact the same wages here as in San Jose. Funny that.



<a href="http://www.labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov/?pageid=170">Of course if you look at the EDD site</a>, then you might be able to back up your theories about the wages and job growth.



Fact #1 The average wage in OC for the comp and IS sector is $62 a hour.



Fact #2 The average wage in Santa Clara for the comp and IS sector is $63 a hour.



Fact #3 The median home price is $485k in OC, but $630k in SC, and that means you would make less in SJ than OC if you owned a home.



Fact #4 The net & data sector is predicted to grow the most by 56% in OC, but only 44% in SC, and yet the raw numbers are pretty much the same.



Fact #5 RE and credit account for 3% of the labor force in SC, but 4.4% in OC. Not a big deal seeing as how OC is/was one the largest concentrations of subprime land, and OC has shed way more jobs in these sectors compared to SC.



Fact #6 Job growth has been paltry in both OC and SC.



I'm not saying that the OC job market is all that great, but to say it doesn't offer the same opportunities in the tech sector is... well... just so completely ignorant it makes you sound like a cheerleading realturd saying it is better to buy (get a tech job in SC) than to rent (try to get a tech job in OC you loser). Hopefully people don't figure out that the opportunities are just as good here for the tech sector, and the cost of living is cheaper, because we don't need any more arrogant and ignorant fools here. We are trying to purge the realturds and mortgage schleps from the system, hopefully we can send some your way since you will need them with all the job opportunities you have there. [smiley]</blockquote>


Your stats for OC include a large number of folks in IT for non high tech firms. Why does the recent Salary Survey cited in this 6/24/08 news story offer conflicting data that supports my position? No mention of OC on this list, which refutes your data. Sure there is statellite high tech in OC, but you're telling me the Oracle dude there has the same career oppty as up in Redwood Shores? More likely he gets the offer at some point to move north or take a hike. That's the way it works in satellite offices. Here's the article:

Local tech workers top peers in salary list

Tom Abate, Chronicle Staff Writer



Tuesday, June 24, 2008





SFGate Technology: It's a high-tech world - - we just plug you into it...





Tech workers in San Jose and San Francisco made the highest wages in the nation, while their counterparts in Oakland ranked fourth in pay, according to a survey of 60 metropolitan areas published today by the American Electronics Association.



This is the first time since the dot-com era that the Washington-based trade group has studied tech employment on a city-by-city basis. Though the report is titled "Cybercities 2008," it is based on federal data from 2006, the most recent year for which local job details are available.



The association found that 5 out of 6 metropolitan areas added tech jobs between 2005 and 2006, as employment slowly returned from post-crash lows in 2003.



"These are the types of jobs every city wants," said association President Christopher Hansen.



Yet so deep were layoffs after the bust that, even now, the nation has fewer jobs in the industry than in 2000, when tech employment peaked.



Locally, the report shows that the Bay Area's three metropolitan regions - San Jose-Silicon Valley, San Francisco and vicinity, and the Oakland-East Bay zone - had 511,400 tech jobs before the crash.



After modest gains starting in 2003 and 2004, these three areas had just 386,100 tech workers in 2006 - a drop of 25 percent in the number of high-tech payroll jobs in the Bay Area.



The association lists 49 types of firms under the high-tech label. These range from chip and computer makers to software and service vendors.



The city-by-city snapshot delivers some surprises, starting with the realization that in total tech job count, the New York (316,500) and Washington (295,800) metropolitan areas beat third-place San Jose-Silicon Valley (225,300).



But when the association computed the average annual high-tech wage in each of the 60 cities, the tables turned.



San Jose had far and away the richest annual average wage, at $144,828, followed by San Francisco ($118,518), Austin, Texas ($100,536), and Oakland ($96,930).



By comparison, Washington ranked ninth with an average annual wage of $92,718 and New York 11th at $91,451. Nationwide, the average tech wage was $79,484 in 2006.



High salaries gave Silicon Valley the top tech payroll despite its third place in job count. When the association multiplied the average wage by the total jobs, San Jose/Silicon Valley had a $32.6 billion tech payroll. More jobs but at lower salaries made New York second ($28.9 billion) and Washington ($27.4 billion) third.



The report reveals two facts that underlie Silicon Valley's huge payroll - the region remains a manufacturing center, and manufacturing jobs, by and large, pay better than service jobs.



The association divided the tech industry into 16 sectors - nine in manufacturing, and seven in services or software.



Silicon Valley was first or second in jobs in six of the nine manufacturing sectors. The average high-tech manufacturing wage in 2006 was $82,454 nationwide.



By comparison, the average high-tech software and service wage in 2006 was $78,602. The New York metropolitan area ranked first or second in five of the seven software and service sectors. Washington was first or second in jobs in three of the seven areas.



While Northern Californians may think they own the Internet, thanks to widely known locals like Yahoo and Google, Silicon Valley came in fourth in employment with 18,100 Internet jobs behind New York (26,300), Dallas-Fort Worth (20,900) and Washington (20,300).



The report ranked San Francisco a distant second in software publishing employment, with 11,500 jobs, far behind Seattle (43,600), which leads the nation thanks to Microsoft.



Other than having the fourth-highest salaries in the nation, Oakland and the East Bay communities came away relatively undistinguished by the report's findings. The Oakland area ranked 17th out of the 60 cities in terms of total tech employment, but it was 37th in terms of percentage growth as tech payrolls grew just 1 percent from 2005 to 2006 versus 1.6 percent for the nation as a whole.



San Francisco saw tech jobs grow 3.4 percent from 76,800 in 2005 to 79,400 in 2006.



Employment grew by a slightly lower percentage rate in San Jose, which added 5,900 jobs in 2006.



The electronics association distributes the Cybercities report to state and local officials and other policymakers nationwide.



***********

wake up on the job front. OC is not a 'Cybercity".
 
I feel the same way about Texas some people do about STD's, but it's interesting to see Austin make the list at $100K. It's a neat city with music, nightlife, educational oppourtunities, passable weather, and a cost of living that would let you live like a sultan compared to SoCal.
 
[quote author="Boston2theBay" date=1217969962]

Sure there is statellite high tech in OC, but you're telling me the Oracle dude there has the same career oppty as up in Redwood Shores? More likely he gets the offer at some point to move north or take a hike. That's the way it works in satellite offices.

</blockquote>


Ahem. Dudette, you mean? Buddy, Oracle has 2 different offices in CM, and they aren't going anywhere anytime soon. Especially if Oracle doesn't stop buying up local small and mid-size tech firms. Anyhow, there are plenty of tech jobs around here. Not saying we are the "New SV" or anything, but I'm certainly not worried.



<blockquote>When my uncle Larry comes to visit the office here in Costa Mesa</blockquote>


You mean <a href="http://www.achievement.org/autodoc/page/ell0bio-1">this</a> guy?
 
[quote author="Boston2theBay" date=1217941604]A small storage player, a distributor and a $500M/yr analog chip firm. Not exactly HP, Cisco, Intel, Google, Apple, Yahoo, eBay, Sun, Xilinx, Cadence, Applied Materials, Chevron, AMD, Juniper, Oracle, Adobe etc et etc. Kind of proves my point.</blockquote>


When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.



That's not a very diversified list.
 
More companies with high paying jobs in OC:



Alcon, Allergan, SICOR, Inc., B. Braun McGaw, Inc., Vitatech International, ICN Pharmaceuticals, Anabolic Laboratories, Inc. Leiner Health Products



Beckman Coulter, Advanced Sterilization, Glidewell Laboratories, Applied Medical Resources, Terra Universal, Nobel Biocare USA, Medtronic Heart Valve, Sechrist Industries, Edwards Lifesciences



Broadcom, Unisys, Toshiba, Ducommun Technologies, Interstate Electronics, American Information Systems, Integrated Device Technology, Kingston Technology, Conexant Systems, Inc., TDK Magnetic Tape, Western Digital, ITT Cannon, Texas Instruments



Raytheon Systems, Boeing Space Systems, BF Goodrich Aerospace,`TRW, Inc.,`C&D;Aerospace,`Parker Aerospace Group,`Sundstrand Aerospace,`



Fluor Daniels,`IT Corp., GE/Energy & Environmental Research, CH2M Hill, URS Corp., Camp Dresser & McKee, Inc., Sverdrup Civil Inc., TRC, P&D;Consultants



Unigraphics Solutions, Inc., DPRC/Compuware, ADP Automatic Data Processing, Micro-Rent

Optum, Inc., Sage Software, Metamor, Quest Software, FileNET, Interplay



Mitsubishi, Subaru, Daimler Chrysler, Ford Lincoln-Mercury, ItalDesign (IDC), Ferrari, Kia, Industrial Design Research, Porsche, Mercedes Benz, Calty Design (Toyota & Lexus), Mazda, Hyundai
 
That list doesn't include the salaries of all of the doctors who work at the numerous plastic surgery / botox / face lift centers. I think that industry alone will support housing prices in Orange County for generations to come.
 
B2B --- Last thing I will say on this subject.....It's great that there are a lot of tech opportunities in the Bay Area. Nobody is arguing there are not powerhouse companies who employ loads of skilled and highly compenstated individuals. For tech firm HQ's, you have OC and everywhere else beat hands down. But that does not mean that people cannot be just as successful (and happy) in OC as well.



You note that there are so many opportunities up there for skilled workers. You and I both know why that is --- It is too expensive to attract new talent to the area. While compensation may be higher in the Bay Area, it is cancelled out and then some by the cost of living. I know, because I was exiled (I mean sent up there on rotation) for almost 4 years in 2001 - 05. I lived most of that time in Rivermark area of Santa Clara, literally surrounded by Sun and Cisco. I know of what I speak about the cost of living....While I am not a tech guy, I understand those companies up there, because many of them were our clients and we dug deep into their financials. I know their struggles to attract talent because as high as the wages are, it does not justify the cost of living.



So yeah, I'll give you that there is a lot of money to be made in the Valley. But I won't give you that there is not any money to be made in OC --- and I will never give you that more money in the Bay Area = happier life. So just give in B2B....Quit that great job at Cisco and come on down here and work for Broadcam. You know you want to. No, you'll never get to be one of those geeks trolling Palo Alto in their Lambo while wearing a pocket protector --- but down here you will get to hang out and have a beer with a lot cooler people at the summer picnic, and you'll be able to get from your office to your wetsuit in 20 minutes (I think you are a surfer?). You can't put a $$ value on that.
 
We have plenty of those geeks with incredibly nice rides down here.

Check out 3-Thirty-3 on Friday nite off PCH the valet is full of them.
 
[quote author="CK" date=1217979020]B2B --- Last thing I will say on this subject.....It's great that there are a lot of tech opportunities in the Bay Area. Nobody is arguing there are not powerhouse companies who employ loads of skilled and highly compenstated individuals. For tech firm HQ's, you have OC and everywhere else beat hands down. But that does not mean that people cannot be just as successful (and happy) in OC as well.



You note that there are so many opportunities up there for skilled workers. You and I both know why that is --- It is too expensive to attract new talent to the area. While compensation may be higher in the Bay Area, it is cancelled out and then some by the cost of living. I know, because I was exiled (I mean sent up there on rotation) for almost 4 years in 2001 - 05. I lived most of that time in Rivermark area of Santa Clara, literally surrounded by Sun and Cisco. I know of what I speak about the cost of living....While I am not a tech guy, I understand those companies up there, because many of them were our clients and we dug deep into their financials. I know their struggles to attract talent because as high as the wages are, it does not justify the cost of living.



So yeah, I'll give you that there is a lot of money to be made in the Valley. But I won't give you that there is not any money to be made in OC --- and I will never give you that more money in the Bay Area = happier life. So just give in B2B....Quit that great job at Cisco and come on down here and work for Broadcam. You know you want to. No, you'll never get to be one of those geeks trolling Palo Alto in their Lambo while wearing a pocket protector --- but down here you will get to hang out and have a beer with a lot cooler people at the summer picnic, and you'll be able to get from your office to your wetsuit in 20 minutes (I think you are a surfer?). You can't put a $$ value on that.</blockquote>




I can vouch for this statement. I get contacted regularly by headhunters for the Richmond area (~SF Bay). There appears to be a strong demand for experienced engineering talent in the Bay area. The 20-30% salary premium just does not justify the cost of living for someone wanting to own a home and settle down. If you are new out of college, it may be a good experience for a renter.



I could also argue that the 10-15% salary premium in my field, in OC, does not justify the cost of living relative to other areas, but the inequality is less unbalanced in OC. And it is becoming more affordable every week.



I am flying into SNA tomorrow for an interview in Huntington Beach.
 
[quote author="Boston2theBay" date=1217969962]Your stats for OC include a large number of folks in IT for non high tech firms. Why does the recent Salary Survey cited in this 6/24/08 news story offer conflicting data that supports my position? No mention of OC on this list, which refutes your data. Sure there is statellite high tech in OC, but you're telling me the Oracle dude there has the same career oppty as up in Redwood Shores? More likely he gets the offer at some point to move north or take a hike. That's the way it works in satellite offices. Here's the article:

Local tech workers top peers in salary list



Tom Abate, Chronicle Staff Writer



Tuesday, June 24, 2008



SFGate Technology: It's a high-tech world - - we just plug you into it...



wake up on the job front. OC is not a 'Cybercity".</blockquote>


Wow! Next time I mention my uncle Larry, you might want to look up who the CEO of Oracle is. Also, if the dudette in my life got an job opportunity to move to "the OC" of the bay area called San Jose, then I wouldn't have to worry about having to move, because that wouldn't happen as there are plenty of jobs for her here. Now... if you cite an article, then you might what to not pick an article written in the SF newspaper that is based on salaries in the Bay Area. That would be like me citing an article from the OCR on the rising tech jobs in OC. Kinda biased. Nice realturd tactic BTW.



How about <a href="http://www.infoworld.com/richmedia/upload/UI/video/2007/6/salary_landscape.swf">Infoworld which states the salaries</a> in the bay area are $120k/$77k, and LA area are $116k/$76k.



This one <a href="http://marketing.dice.com/pdf/Dice_2007_TechSalarySurvey_1-31-08.pdf">that has LA metro area</a> (which includes OC) in the top 5, and yes Silicon Valley is #1.



Well, here is the <a href="http://jobstar.org/tools/salary/sal-comp.php">link for all the other surveys</a>. I am not going to waste my time posting links for you since you obviously didn't click on the one I provided before. You are just as bad as a closed minded realturd, you only post biased articles, and you don't take the time to read the articles/links others provide.



Wake up! I never said OC was cybercity, nor do I want it to be, especially if it means more closed minded non-bay area natives moving here. I would much rather chill out with CK in his backyard (on the house he got a fat discount on) in my flip flops and drinking a beer talking baseball rather than geek.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1217982856]I would much rather chill out with CK in his backyard (on the house he got a fat discount on) in my flip flops and drinking a beer talking baseball rather than geek.</blockquote>


Right on. The meaning of life, summed up in one sentence.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1217982856]



Wake up! I never said OC was cybercity, nor do I want it to be, especially if it means more closed minded non-bay area natives moving here. I would much rather chill out with CK in his backyard (on the house he got a fat discount on) in my flip flops and drinking a beer talking baseball rather than geek.</blockquote>




Yeah, all well and good.

Graph, just try not to empty the pool with your cannonball.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1217982856][quote author="Boston2theBay" date=1217969962]Your stats for OC include a large number of folks in IT for non high tech firms. Why does the recent Salary Survey cited in this 6/24/08 news story offer conflicting data that supports my position? No mention of OC on this list, which refutes your data. Sure there is statellite high tech in OC, but you're telling me the Oracle dude there has the same career oppty as up in Redwood Shores? More likely he gets the offer at some point to move north or take a hike. That's the way it works in satellite offices. Here's the article:

Local tech workers top peers in salary list



Tom Abate, Chronicle Staff Writer



Tuesday, June 24, 2008



SFGate Technology: It's a high-tech world - - we just plug you into it...



wake up on the job front. OC is not a 'Cybercity".</blockquote>


Wow! Next time I mention my uncle Larry, you might want to look up who the CEO of Oracle is. Also, if the dudette in my life got an job opportunity to move to "the OC" of the bay area called San Jose, then I wouldn't have to worry about having to move, because that wouldn't happen as there are plenty of jobs for her here. Now... if you cite an article, then you might what to not pick an article written in the SF newspaper that is based on salaries in the Bay Area. That would be like me citing an article from the OCR on the rising tech jobs in OC. Kinda biased. Nice realturd tactic BTW.



How about <a href="http://www.infoworld.com/richmedia/upload/UI/video/2007/6/salary_landscape.swf">Infoworld which states the salaries</a> in the bay area are $120k/$77k, and LA area are $116k/$76k.



This one <a href="http://marketing.dice.com/pdf/Dice_2007_TechSalarySurvey_1-31-08.pdf">that has LA metro area</a> (which includes OC) in the top 5, and yes Silicon Valley is #1.



Well, here is the <a href="http://jobstar.org/tools/salary/sal-comp.php">link for all the other surveys</a>. I am not going to waste my time posting links for you since you obviously didn't click on the one I provided before. You are just as bad as a closed minded realturd, you only post biased articles, and you don't take the time to read the articles/links others provide.



Wake up! I never said OC was cybercity, nor do I want it to be, especially if it means more closed minded non-bay area natives moving here. I would much rather chill out with CK in his backyard (on the house he got a fat discount on) in my flip flops and drinking a beer talking baseball rather than geek.</blockquote>


The article was a survey by the American Electronic Association. A little more credible than the articles you cite which consistently lump IT jobs in with other high tech jobs. Consulting or corporate IT <> high tech.



But the thread here was about Irvine seeing another 20-25% drop. Based on the published household median and median prices combined with the hazy outlook for proven high paying occupations in OC, the prices should fall by at least another 25%. Incidentally SJC with the rising tech salaries and rate of median price decline is starting to look MORE affordable than Irvine.



It all goes back to jobs.
 
[quote author="ABC123" date=1217978362]That list doesn't include the salaries of all of the doctors who work at the numerous plastic surgery / botox / face lift centers. I think that industry alone will support housing prices in Orange County for generations to come.</blockquote>
Won't HELOC money cut into this industry?
 
[quote author="Boston2theBay" date=1217986649]The article was a survey by the American Electronic Association. A little more credible than the articles you cite which consistently lump IT jobs in with other high tech jobs. Consulting or corporate IT <> high tech.



But the thread here was about Irvine seeing another 20-25% drop. Based on the published household median and median prices combined with the hazy outlook for proven high paying occupations in OC, the prices should fall by at least another 25%. Incidentally SJC with the rising tech salaries and rate of median price decline is starting to look MORE affordable than Irvine.



It all goes back to jobs.</blockquote>


The article was from SFGate aka the San Francisco Chronicle, which cherry picked the numbers for the bay area and a few losers to compare it to. Link the entire survey and I bet you will see OC on the list in the top five for salary growth. Nice spin... are you sure you are in tech or really are you in RE? Did you even bother to go back and check the EDD link or any of the other surveys from the other link? It looks like you didn't, because you might find your point about IT and tech jobs would be found to be a complete fallacy.



You are right... the thread was about price drops, and with the rising salaries and increasing jobs in both OC and SC, it makes OC even more affordable and nicer place to live. You like San Jose, that is cool, but this is the Irvine housing blog, and Irvine is in OC, so we like OC not San Jose. If people loved San Jose so much then there would be a blog and forums just like this, and maybe there is. Maybe you can find more people that will agree with you there, but I am not going to go to a San Jose blog and post biased stats on job growth trying to say it is better in OC. That would, well, just be childish and lame.
 
I spent 38 year in SF. The problem with the SF IT field is that you MUST work 6 days a week with no overtime pay. Also, factor in the fact that we OC guys can take the train to Los Angles or San Diego for a multitude of six figure jobs.
 
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