Aliso Viejo Discussion Thread

[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1210316644][quote author="caliguy2699" date=1210294925][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1210292049]As I have some interest in one part of Aliso Viejo, I am going to start tracking prices in 92656. My search starts at 2000sf and above... There are a ton in escrow now which went under contract recently so we'll see just what kind of rollbacks that area has very soon.



I only have one property so far, <a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/avshiller.xls">but the spreadsheet can be found here</a>.</blockquote>


The rollbacks will be severe in Aliso as a whole. A number of REOs have been hitting the market at large discounts, and it looks like there is a demand for these kinds of properties. They are still overpriced relative to fundamentals, but it looks like the knife catchers are out in force.</blockquote>


Holy mother of MLS. I finally dug deeper into my AV 92656 search results. There are 66 properties over 2000sf that popped up and 20 of them are in escrow. Almost a third of the 2000sf + places are under contract... Sure doesn't sound like a prelude to big price drops. Maybe they are all REOs that took lowball prices. That would be cool...</blockquote>


That could be it. There is no way that much demand materialized out of thin air. Prices have come down a lot over there and judging by the foreclosures in the pipeline, there is no end in sight.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1210316644][quote author="caliguy2699" date=1210294925][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1210292049]As I have some interest in one part of Aliso Viejo, I am going to start tracking prices in 92656. My search starts at 2000sf and above... There are a ton in escrow now which went under contract recently so we'll see just what kind of rollbacks that area has very soon.



I only have one property so far, <a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/avshiller.xls">but the spreadsheet can be found here</a>.</blockquote>


The rollbacks will be severe in Aliso as a whole. A number of REOs have been hitting the market at large discounts, and it looks like there is a demand for these kinds of properties. They are still overpriced relative to fundamentals, but it looks like the knife catchers are out in force.</blockquote>


Holy mother of MLS. I finally dug deeper into my AV 92656 search results. There are 66 properties over 2000sf that popped up and 20 of them are in escrow. Almost a third of the 2000sf + places are under contract... Sure doesn't sound like a prelude to big price drops. Maybe they are all REOs that took lowball prices. That would be cool...</blockquote>


sorry- a little help for a newbie... We're buying new- so I assume we are considered "under contract". Are you saying 1/3 are under contract AND 20 are in escrow?
 
[quote author="waiting-2-move" date=1210333486][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1210316644][quote author="caliguy2699" date=1210294925][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1210292049]As I have some interest in one part of Aliso Viejo, I am going to start tracking prices in 92656. My search starts at 2000sf and above... There are a ton in escrow now which went under contract recently so we'll see just what kind of rollbacks that area has very soon.



I only have one property so far, <a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/avshiller.xls">but the spreadsheet can be found here</a>.</blockquote>


The rollbacks will be severe in Aliso as a whole. A number of REOs have been hitting the market at large discounts, and it looks like there is a demand for these kinds of properties. They are still overpriced relative to fundamentals, but it looks like the knife catchers are out in force.</blockquote>


Holy mother of MLS. I finally dug deeper into my AV 92656 search results. There are 66 properties over 2000sf that popped up and 20 of them are in escrow. Almost a third of the 2000sf + places are under contract... Sure doesn't sound like a prelude to big price drops. Maybe they are all REOs that took lowball prices. That would be cool...</blockquote>


sorry- a little help for a newbie... We're buying new- so I assume we are considered "under contract". Are you saying 1/3 are under contract AND 20 are in escrow?</blockquote>


MLS does not list new home escrows. There are 65 2000+ sf homes listed in MLS for zip code 92656 and at least 19 of them are in escrow right now. I think more than 10 have gone into escrow over the past month... That is a whole lot of buying activity for an area that had been stagnating in terms of sales volume.



Or in other terms, the available inventory of 2000+ sf homes in AV appears to be headed down and quickly.
 
Holy crap, I never thought there would be a rundown neighborhood in Aliso Viejo. I went to go check out the townhomes on Moulton & Calle Cortez. I guess, you really do get what you pay for. I was shocked to say the least. Wow! I guess I should have asked you guys about this particular tract before I went.
 
Added another closing price for AV:



<a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/avshiller.xls">AV CS Index</a>



Sample size is small, but so far prices in AV aren't trailing Irvine by much in terms of depth of rollback.
 
sorry to be naieve, lazy or clueless (or all 3)- but ipoplaya from what I've read about the Case-Shiller index I don't know how one could calculate it for one specific property. Can you point me to somewhere that explains how you calculate these indices for specific home/transactios? In return I promise to leave you alone for a while... (-:
 
IPO - I started tracking some closings in Aliso (smaller properties than the ones you're looking at). The median CS value puts pricing at around April 2004 levels right now.



By contrast, Laguna Niguel was closer to June 2004.
 
[quote author="waiting-2-move" date=1210913742]sorry to be naieve, lazy or clueless (or all 3)- but ipoplaya from what I've read about the Case-Shiller index I don't know how one could calculate it for one specific property. Can you point me to somewhere that explains how you calculate these indices for specific home/transactios? In return I promise to leave you alone for a while... (-:</blockquote>


Waiting - Here is how I have been doing it: (Latest sales price/previous sales price) * old CS value. That will give you the new CS value.



To get the old CS value, look it up on <a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/CS_HomePrice_History_022603.xls">this chart</a> from IPO. The value you use is for the LA market from the month and year the previous sale took place.
 
[quote author="waiting-2-move" date=1210913742]sorry to be naieve, lazy or clueless (or all 3)- but ipoplaya from what I've read about the Case-Shiller index I don't know how one could calculate it for one specific property. Can you point me to somewhere that explains how you calculate these indices for specific home/transactios? In return I promise to leave you alone for a while... (-:</blockquote>


<a href="http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/SP_CS_Home_Price_Indices_Methodology_Web.pdf">Case-Shiller Methodology</a>



I am trying to derive a current month index value off identified sales pairs, i.e. a current month sale with its previous sale information, but don't use all the facets/calculations that CS does. That's why I call it IPO-Shiller because it ain't really Case-Siller!



Basic CS methodology, which is using paired transactions across time on the same home to derive overall changes to the index, is what I am applying in a simple fashion. I of course don't do any weighting or three-month averaging, but the approach is fundamentally the same as the CS methodology...
 
wow, I read the CS method, and I think I will stick with Caliguy's.



Is this what you do too, IPO? Or do you do some weighting?
 
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1210925279]wow, I read the CS method, and I think I will stick with Caliguy's.



Is this what you do too, IPO? Or do you do some weighting?</blockquote>


I followed what IPO does to come up with the current CS values (or should I say current CS-IPO values) - at least I think I am. They should yield the same CS values.
 
caliguy and I calc the same way...



I have noticed a number of places in AV that fell out of escrow within the last week. Woohoo!



One more close yesterday on Evening Light. 195 index value. Very tight range on the closes in 92656 so far.
 
Hi ipoplaya,



I'd like to thank you for providing tracking on AV home sales. I am looking to buy there or MV probably later this year. Your information can be a great help and we may be neighbors in the future!
 
One of the houses I liked in AV closed recently (5/15, just reported to MLS) for nearly a 2003 price.



<a href="http://www.homesandland.com/Real_Estate/CA/City/Aliso_Viejo/ListingId/11075541.html">This house</a> sold in June 2004 for $979K. Most recent sale is 10% of its 2004 purchase price...



<a href="http://www.ipoplaya.com/avshiller.xls">AV IPO-Shiller</a>
 
In your opinion, what would be the main reasons why Aliso Viejo would be on average $100,000 less than a home in Irvine? Is it the schools?, Is it the access to freeways? Access to work? Older Homes? AV seems to be a much nicer place to live than Garden Grove, but the average home prices seem to be at same level as that of Garden Grove.



I have been looking mostly in the Northern Irvine area for a home, but I mean AV does not seem to be like a bad location as it is closer to the pacific ocean than Northern Irvine. I do travel quite a bit so a close proximately to John Wayne Airport factors in to my home buying decision. Would the distance be the same to get to the airport from Portola Springs/Woodbury in Irvine compared to Aliso Viejo?



I am also looking for some office/warehouse spaces in AV. Where would most of them be located in AV? Are rents in AV equivalent to Irvine, or 10-20% less. If I were to purchase an 2000 - 2500 sq/ft office/warehouse in AV, by what percentage would they be cheaper than buying the same office/warehouse space in Irvine.



Panda.
 
Panda, you can take the <a href="http://www.thetollroads.com/home/index.htm">73 Toll Road</a> from AV right to SNA. It's a bit pricey - but it's a quick road to the airport.
 
Aliso Viejo according to a map is just on the back side of Laguna Beach. The perpendicular distance is very short to the coast line. Here is the problem: the location has no access to Laguna Beach because the terrain is too steep for roads. It is nestle in the base of the hills where air is stagnant and breeze seldom make it over the hills and if it did then it will miss Aliso at the base. As a result, it is damn hot! and it is way hotter than Irvine. House prices according to my earlier post is relative to temperature difference from the coast. Due to the stagnant air and under a pressure zone there is no prevailing wind. Temperature is 6-7 degree higher than the coast.



Master plan of Aliso Viejo and RSM were done around the same time. Industry people predicted that both would someday would become the South County ghettos. Hearthside Homes and Signature Homes were the major force behind Aliso and Fieldstone and Recreaction behind RSM. Signature Homes and Recreaction were long gone. Hearthside went on and built prisons and recently ventured back to home building on such project like Brightwater at Huntington Beach by Hearthside Homes. Fieldstone are among the bottom feeder of the industry. There were no great builders in both locations. Most builders responsible closed their doors many years ago.



Third and fourth tier architects designed projects there for years. They are Pekarek Crandall, MJ Knitter, Smet, Dale Sexton, Hale Langsdon, Iverson, Corbin Yamafugi (current KTGY) and earlier works of Bassenian Lagoni who designed Brightwater at Huntington Beach by Hearthside Homes. This is one of the reason within the industry Aliso could not match its prices with Irvine. Let me make a comparison. JC Penney knows its branding and will never try set its price like Nordstrom because Penny knows its place in the retail business and this also applied to Aliso in the building industry.



Driving on the San Joaquin Toll Road passing by Turtle Ridge and Newport Coast arriving into Aliso, the picturesque and meandering street and terraces of the Irvine Ranch would shame the engineered manufactured tiered lots on the Aliso hillside seen from the toll road. It is just poor,poor,poor,poor plannings. It was the designs from the Miami Vice glass block 80's. Style of architecture that is not time tested and extremely trendy. There were 10 different colors applied to a single house by the color consultant Mariam Tate. Architecture and neighborhood lack a timeless quality.



Bad planning, bad architecture, BK builders, Bottom feeder builders, Prison builder, and Bad feng shui (stagnant air) etc. Why should it command a higher price?



















[quote author="PANDA" date=1212188123]In your opinion, what would be the main reasons why Aliso Viejo would be on average $100,000 less than a home in Irvine? Is it the schools?, Is it the access to freeways? Access to work? Older Homes? AV seems to be a much nicer place to live than Garden Grove, but the average home prices seem to be at same level as that of Garden Grove.



I have been looking mostly in the Northern Irvine area for a home, but I mean AV does not seem to be like a bad location as it is closer to the pacific ocean than Northern Irvine. I do travel quite a bit so a close proximately to John Wayne Airport factors in to my home buying decision. Would the distance be the same to get to the airport from Portola Springs/Woodbury in Irvine compared to Aliso Viejo?



I am also looking for some office/warehouse spaces in AV. Where would most of them be located in AV? Are rents in AV equivalent to Irvine, or 10-20% less. If I were to purchase an 2000 - 2500 sq/ft office/warehouse in AV, by what percentage would they be cheaper than buying the same office/warehouse space in Irvine.



Panda.</blockquote>
 
Longer and less flexible commute to work for many. Also an inferior school district as compared to IUSD. Two other reasons it won't have the same premium as Irvine...



AV reminds me of a hilly VoC. Cute and trendy, trying to be something its not...
 
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