A Message to all in the Irvine Housing Blog:

[IrvineRealtor_IHB]

at the risk of adding fuel to this fire...

"Let's see the comps."

parameters: last 6 months, all condos, 4 bedrooms, 2000-2900sqft

search area:

Good luck,

IR2

 

[no_vaseline_IHB]

at the risk of adding fuel to this fire...

"Let's see the comps."

parameters: last 6 months, all condos, 4 bedrooms, 2000-2900sqft

search area:

Good luck,

IR2

Deuce:

How do you look those up by date?

And how does the appraiser excuse 78 Fringe Tree?

"Well, you know, that one's on a superfund site and gets a big discount!"

In my experence the most recent closed sale is the most meaningful. When you get one this far from the rest of them..................

Lets look at 143 Hyde Park:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/143-Hyde-Park-92606/home/12527474

Property History for 143 HYDE Park

Date Event Price Appreciation Source

Dec 17, 2008 Relisted -- -- Oodle #875862010

Nov 10, 2008 Off Redfin -- -- Oodle #875862010

Nov 04, 2008 Price Changed $615,000 -- SoCalMLS #S541478

Oct 24, 2008 Price Changed $599,999 -- SoCalMLS #S541478

Sep 30, 2008 Price Changed $615,000 -- SoCalMLS #S541478

Sep 12, 2008 Relisted -- -- SoCalMLS #S541478

Jul 24, 2008 Listed $600,000 -- SoCalMLS #S541478

Jun 02, 2008 Relisted -- -- Oodle #875862010

May 23, 2008 Off Redfin -- -- Oodle #875862010

Nov 06, 2007 Listed $749,000 -- Oodle #875862010

Cliffs Notes:

- Listed for 408 days + still not closed

- Listed from $750K-600K and still not closed

Lets recap Aussie style:

(embedded video no longer available)

 

[ipoplaya_IHB]

And how does the appraiser excuse 78 Fringe Tree?

In my experence the most recent closed sale is the most meaningful. When you get one this far from the rest of them..................

Vas, even you can't be crazy enough to think that the auction price is a) going to be an influential comp on the appraiser or b) will even be an influential price to consider for most buyers. People look at closed MLS sales for comps, both buyers and appraisers. When I refinanced and even sold my condo, the appraiser looked at resales of REOs, discounted them some because they were as-is transactions, but I don't believe they picked up any auction transactions.

Think about this. A place goes back to the bank for 1st TD balance, say $500K, they spin it out on to the market, and it re-sells to the general buyer pool for $600K. This, you will admit, is quite common... So, was the $500K auction price a viable comp? If so, does that mean prices are trending up? If this example were repeated many times on properties, as it has been of late, does this mean the RE recession is over?

All cash buyers create a very restricted demand pool. They can't possibly make the overall market price if exponentially more demand awaits, via mortgage financing, for the exact same property in a non-auction setting. They only make the price in their particular market, which is NOT the same as the one created by the general pool of mortgage-backed buyers and sellers represented by RE agents.

 

[kevin_IHB]

If you are right, then I and many, many, many others will walk and I will have no qualms whatsoever about starting over.

So although you fault the IHB community for observing the bubble bursting as some how greedy, you would walk away from your arms-length negotiated financial responibilites and make everyone else foot the bill for your bad investment? You would actively worsen the economy (with "no qualms whatsoever") and you have the gall to come here and act as if you have some sort of moral high ground?

 

[no_vaseline_IHB]

When I worked special assets, that was absolutely the case. When we figured out asset values we took the most recent transaction data we had.

We did not have two pools for "distressed-cash only-sold at auction" and "financed". If you are telling me this two year old property needs $225K in rehabing I'll bite (ie your "as is" comps the appraiser tossed out) but I don't think you are. You don't have a hundred sales either, or even twenty. You have six.

It is my contention you cannot ignore the auction given the recent comps simply because there isn't enough data.

 

[ipoplaya_IHB]

When I worked special assets, that was absolutely the case. When we figured out asset values we took the most recent transaction data we had.

We did not have two pools for "distressed-cash only-sold at auction" and "financed". If you are telling me this two year old property needs $225K in rehabing I'll bite (ie your "as is" comps the appraiser tossed out) but I don't think you are. You don't have a hundred sales either, or even twenty. You have six.

It is my contention you cannot ignore the auction given the recent comps simply because there isn't enough data.

I hear you, but the next sale I sale that has a recent auction price below the following retail sale, I'll post and see what you would make of it.

With the most recent sales logic, that would suggest that prices were going up...

 

[no_vaseline_IHB]

If this home sells for $700K the auction is sold for previously can be (should be) disregarded in good faith.

Given the action of 143 Hyde Park (400+ days on the market), I sincerely don't think this home sells for $700K.

 

[Oscar_IHB]

This makes me wish I had more thumbs AND that I could post pics in raid chat.

 

[jbenko_IHB]

pew pew...dps...raid chat? This sounds like WOW talk.

 

[graphrix_IHB]

You are all working on 10% of the knowledge of this story. No, the person starting the thread is not a disgruntled homeowner, they are someone pretending to be me to invite attacks. Second, my beef with IR has zero to do with housing prices and everything to do with bullying, closedmindedness and general malice. I have been dealing with this for the better part of two years. But don't let facts stop you from putting in your 2 cents! And don't give me that tired garbage about irresponsiblility. I owned a $2M home, until my husband got cancer and our outlook changed. I put hundreds of thousands down on my current home, not including upgrades. Looking back, I wish I had put nothing down, but it's water under the bridge.

So you are saying you put a couple $100k down, and you had enough to pay cash, but you didn't. So basically you should have around $500k in cash today, or maybe more if you were smart and invested wisely.

Um, could it be because I don't have $450,000 in loose change hiding in my sofa cushions (not to mention the ability to absorb clouded-title risk)? Ya think? It went for hundreds of thousands less than it should have. THAT is criminal. How the hell can a bank be stingy on a loan mod of 2% and then take a hit like this? This is a huge story. I assure you the comps support well north of $700k. That trustee should be sued to kingdom come.

Wait!? I thought you had all kinds of cash from your previous real estate deals, and now you don't have the chump change to save the comps? You blame the trustee, but it isn't the trustee that bought this loan from a pool of garbage for $0.40 on the dollar that makes the profit when it sells for $0.60 on the dollar at the auction, now is it? A loan mod? Please, these people probably couldn't afford the payment if they mod'd the loan down to $479k and gave them a 2% rate. Why would they do that when they can make their profit now, instead of lose more later? This place would never sell at the auction for $700k, nor will it sell in the resell market for $700k.

Well, the market doesn't care about your new rules. The prices per sq ft in this community are (low/high/avg) $252.83/$303.36/$385.41). That trustee accepted $178.77. Fringe Tree will sell in the $650,000 range. If you are right, then I and many, many, many others will walk and I will have no qualms whatsoever about starting over. Hell, I'd love to have lower expenses. Trust me, there are ways if you know what you are doing. Of course, no one will be employed at that point, so it is all moot.

Well... aren't you the biggest hypocrite ever. You have cast your endless shame on the people who walk away, and now you are admitting you would do it yourself. Then you brag about your cash that you "could" have used on a down payment, but then when it comes time to pony up to actually do it, you don't have it. How you have the audacity to say that you have never worked in RE is truly appalling, you have, and you are currently licensed to do so. You are a hypocrite, and you are a liar, and a compulsive liar at that. You try to shame IR, but really you need to look in the mirror, as you would see that you are truly the shameful person. Of course you might just lie to yourself to make yourself feel better.

 

[awgee_IHB]

and I think some of them are absolutely nuts about where they think prices will bottom.

Yeah, they, (we), may be absolutely nuts, but we have been right.

Ten out of ten people thought we were nuts when we sold our home.

 

[Janet_IHB]

Wow, where to begin?

How about here:

Its one thing to live in a Condo.

But a Condo thats stacked like an IAC Rental for $ 700,000. with 2+ common walls ?

(Um....all the floors belong to me and there is one common wall)

And its in what was originally planned as an industrial area.

(Um...this was military housing and agricultural areas)

With a Cement Processing plant and a Waste Management Facility with Open garbagewithin 1000 feet ? That may be ok if you never go outside in your neighborhood.

(Um....it is a hell of a lot further than 1,000 feet and the WM facility SORTS recycleables, furniture, etc.)

(Like I said: "You don't know jack about it"!)

(Here are the real comps (since June 1), you would think an unbiased realtor would know to pull the complex only.)

Total number of properties found: 8

Click on Any MLSNO to Preview and Select Listings:

Search Functions

Number of properties displayed: 8 out of 250 maximum.

Residential

Fri, Dec 19, 2008 06:58 AM RES MLS # Status P V H T Q Type A/D Address City Area Zip TGNO Trct/M Bd B t/f Sty Gar SqFt Yr Blt Price DOM

1 P665053 A 18 H T Q CONDO A 78 Fringe Tree IR CG 92606 860C3 KENC/D 4 3/2 3 2 A 2,685 2006 $699,000 25

2 U8003586 A 10 H T Q CONDO A 46 Fringe Tree IR CG 92606 860D2 KENC/3 3 4/3 S 2 2,400 2007 $749,000 132

3 S546403 S 12 H T Q CONDO A 44 Honey Locust IR CG 92606 860C3 KENC/2 3 3/2 2 2 2,125 2006 $565,000 24 *

4 P653497 S 19 H T Q CONDO A 46 Honey Locust IR CG 92606 860C3 KENC/3 3 3/2 3 2 A 2,472 2006 $625,000 13

5 S531756 S 8 H T Q CONDO A 39 JUNEBERRY IR CG 92606 860C3 KENC/1 3 3/2 2 2 2,125 2007 $610,000 43

6 S531748 S 10 H T Q CONDO A 27 Juneberry IR CG 92606 860C3 KENC/1 3 3/2 2 2 2,125 2006 $645,000 10

7 S531653 S 11 H T Q CONDO A 44 Fringe Tree IR CG 92606 860C3 KENC/3 3 3/2 2 2 2,472 2007 $695,000 16

(And what's this?)

8 U8001648 S 15 H T Q CONDO A 21 Juneberry IR CG 92606 860C4 KENC/0 4 3/3 S 2 A 2,685 2007 $799,000 80 *

 

[Janet_IHB]

And take a close looks at IR2's comps. Do the math on these smaller, paritally non-Irvine, all non-IUSD school units and you will come out with........$799,000!

 

[Janet_IHB]

Oh, what to say to the loan officer comments other than you know squat about what I did and did not do. I rated bonds (which were more straightforward back then) and I also worked in wholesale for many years. Neither of these things involved talking people into loans. I have also never seen an option arm up-close.

 

[Janet_IHB]

From Graphrix:

"Well… aren’t you the biggest hypocrite ever. You have cast your endless shame on the people who walk away, and now you are admitting you would do it yourself. Then you brag about your cash that you “could” have used on a down payment, but then when it comes time to pony up to actually do it, you don’t have it. How you have the audacity to say that you have never worked in RE is truly appalling, you have, and you are currently licensed to do so. You are a hypocrite, and you are a liar, and a compulsive liar at that. You try to shame IR, but really you need to look in the mirror, as you would see that you are truly the shameful person. Of course you might just lie to yourself to make yourself feel better."

Please show me where I said I could have put down even more cash? You can't because I didn't. On the topic of walking away, yes I did say it was unethical before, and I still frown upon it. However, if banks continue to act in the irresponsible way they have (especially those who have themselves been bailed out), I am certainly not going to absorb more than the $400,000 I already have invested. It is enough, and I won't be the last person in Irvine to keep ponying up. Yes, I hold a license, and recently got into working with REOs, but I have never sold a single home to anyone, ever. I was in lending, as you know. I really want you to back up your compulsive liar statement. You can't, but you CAN apologize.

 

[Janet_IHB]

And one final thing: my comments about frowning on walking away were directed at those who "buy and bail". That is a completely different story. That is pure opportunism. If I had to do so it would be because I am not bulletproof, and experience the same economic issues as everyone else.

 

[irvine_home_owner_IHB]

(And what's this?)

8 U8001648 S 15 H T Q CONDO A 21 Juneberry IR CG 92606 860C4 KENC/0 4 3/3 S 2 A 2,685 2007 $799,000 80 *

I'm new here so I'm unaware of the history between you and other IHBers... but is this a 2007 comp?

If it is, you said you are not a realtor or an appraiser so you may not know that this won't get used for establishing an appraisal today. When we sold our house, they didn't go beyond 3 months to find comps because of how fast the market has been dropping the last 2 years. And considering we are almost in 2009... who would use that as a baseline for the same unit today?

 

[Janet_IHB]

It's from June, 2008. It shows built in 2007, but I think it was built as early as 2005-2006.

 

[no_vaseline_IHB]

Oh, what to say to the loan officer comments other than you know squat about what I did and did not do. I rated bonds (which were more straightforward back then) and I also worked in wholesale for many years. Neither of these things involved talking people into loans. I have also never seen an option arm up-close.

LIAR!

I am an honest mortgage broker with access to really great rates and fantastic service. Please email me if I can help you now or in the future!

Best Regards,

Janet XXXX

janet.XXXX@XXXXXXXXXX.com

I can post the cite if you want, but I won't unless you ask becasue I don't want to discuss your "real name". So much for "Honest Broker". More like "Totally Standard".

 

[NewToOC_IHB]

IPO, there is a model match within 6 months at $799,000 - it's on Juneberry. Regardless, you are the only person here who has the cajones to tell it like it is. There isn't a need to be rude to me....or you.

This interrupted for Spanish lesson for the day: It's cojones. Cajon means a drawer or a box. Continue rant...