99% Survival rate

[Irvinecommuter]

Illogical. That was the word I was looking for, but couldn't remember!

Anyways, I think you are in your own bubble. But that's ok. Most people are.

What bubble are you speaking of?

 

[Irvinecommuter]

But 1% and 99% are the scientific numbers, not emotions and feelings.

Yes...1% of 330 million people is 3.3 million. 

More data and facts:  250K dead, 11 million cases.

Arizona, Missouri, Washington, Minnesota, SD, ND, and a whole host of other states are at or near full capacity for ICU beds.

The impact varies state by state with certain areas showing much more rapid increases in hospitalizations. As of Monday, hospitalizations are rising in 47 states, according to data collected by The COVID Tracking Project, and 22 states are seeing their highest numbers of COVID-19 hospitalizations since the pandemic began.

An increase in COVID-19 hospitalizations statewide is also associated with higher mortality, according to a recent study that analyzed the relationship between COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths.

"It's an indicator that you're going to have more deaths from COVID as you see the numbers inch up in the hospital," says Pinar Karaca-Mandic, professor and academic director of the Medical Industry Leadership Institute at the University of Minnesota.

Specifically, Karaca-Mandic's research found that a 1% increase of COVID-19 patients in a state's ICU beds will lead to about 2.8 additional deaths in the next seven days.

She says a statewide level of 20% COVID-19 hospitalizations may not look all that alarming, but that number doesn't capture the constraints on the health care system in adding more ICU beds.

Edit: https://www.npr.org/sections/health...surging-where-are-hospitals-reaching-capacity

You may not think there are emotions and feelings there...but there are plenty.

 

[Mety]

1)  Religion by definition is "illogical"...it requires faith with means belief without factual basis.  For example, being a Christian means that you believe an unknown deity made himself a human being and sacrificed himself for to bring everlasting life for the entirety of humanity.  There is no "logic" there...you either believe it or not.  It is highly personal and impossible to prove.

Sorry, but that is not Christianity. As much as you try to defend false information, I try to sort out things that can mislead people in Christian faith.

In Christian faith, you believe God because He made Himself known to you. He is not an unknown deity. He made heavens and earth, everything you see around. He made Himself known that way before anything. Then once you realize you're not worthy to be with such a powerful holy deity, God reveals His Son Jesus for the only way you can be with God the Father ultimately. To know more about Jesus is by hearing the gospel, by hearing The Holy Bible. As you know more and more, of course with doubts time to time, everything becomes very logical He created things the way He did. It is a very logical faith once you actually know. And you can prove by how the one faithful man/woman loves.

 

[Mety]

Illogical. That was the word I was looking for, but couldn't remember!

Anyways, I think you are in your own bubble. But that's ok. Most people are.

What bubble are you speaking of?

I was talking to IHO.

 

[Irvinecommuter]

1)  Religion by definition is "illogical"...it requires faith with means belief without factual basis.  For example, being a Christian means that you believe an unknown deity made himself a human being and sacrificed himself for to bring everlasting life for the entirety of humanity.  There is no "logic" there...you either believe it or not.  It is highly personal and impossible to prove.

Sorry, but that is not Christianity. As much as you try to defend false information, I try to sort out things that can mislead people in Christian faith.

In Christian faith, you believe God because He made Himself known to you. He is not an unknown deity. He made heavens and earth, everything you see around. He made Himself known that way before anything. Then once you realize you're not worthy to be with such a powerful holy deity, God reveals His Son Jesus for the only way you can be with God the Father ultimately. To know more about Jesus is by hearing the gospel, by hearing The Holy Bible. As you know more and more, of course with doubts time to time, everything becomes very logical He created things the way He did. It is a very logical faith once you actually know. And you can prove by how the one faithful man/woman loves.

That's seems like a highly subjective and personal experience that cannot be proven scientifically or with logic.  As certain as you are about God and Jesus as Christian, you will find others who express equal certainty about being a Muslim, a Buddhist, a Jew, a Hindu, or an agnostic.

It's not logical at all...it may make sense to you but it is literally the opposite of logic.

By definition...Faith:

strong belief in God or in the doctrines of a religion, based on spiritual apprehension rather than proof.

I will give you another example...how do you know that God created the world?  How do you prove it to a nonbeliever?  Is it something you can demonstrate and prove?

 

[Mety]

But no one was asking which side was more logical.

You have put it nicely that favors your position, but still have not proven about the long term effects of Covid in health. You only demonstrated what you believe with sources you might have on your own from articles, etc.

Logic is logic...logic may not fit your personal feeling or sense but that does not negate objective logic.  You can continue to argue that 1+1 is not 2 but that doesn't change the logic or math of it.

You seem to be confusing logic with personal preference and subjective "common sense".

How exactly would you like to it to be proven?  Conversely, what is your evidence that there are no material long-term effects?

"Logic is logic like math is math" does sound correct, but the issue is that which logic are we talking about? You can say my logic is like math 1+1=2. Sure, but your logic might be illogical to others. You don't think so? You say that is a subjective common sense, but how do you know your logic is not a subjective common sense? You say 1% of the US population is huge. Yes, that is logical. But others might say 1% is a too small of a number. That is logical too. You don't think so? What makes your logic deserves to be the only logic where there is a counter logic which is also true? My point here is not to prove I'm more logical. My point here is what you say logical might actually be a preference subjective matter after all. Of course, you won't admit it.

I'm not in a position to prove or debunk the long term effects. You guys are the ones who say there are long term effects with Covid. YOU need to prove it. I'll say though, we're less than a year having this virus. How can we determine it'll have long term effects while we have only studied this virus less than a year? Am I being illogical?

 

[qwerty]

You guys shut down as soon as covid is compared to the flu. The flu is also a highly contagious and deadly disease. Yes, not as deadly as covid, I get it.

In 2018 there were 2.8M deaths in the US. If that was 4.5M per year due to covid does that mean we change our way of life? Why was the 2.8M acceptable and 4.5M is not? Where is the line and who decides? Everyone has a viewpoint

All policies/laws/rules are generally based on what the majority wants and to some extent on religious beliefs. Generally most reasonable people can come to an agreement on what that is and whether it?s beneficial to society. Covid is unique because of the negative economic impact the shutdowns have and governments seem to think that is the only way to get things under control.

So one side cares about the money and the other cares about the lives. No right or wrong answer.

If you really want to apply logic you do what?s best for the majority and that would be for the 99% survivors. It can easily be argued that it?s illogical to ruin everything for the 1%.

 

[Mety]

You guys shut down as soon as covid is compared to the flu. The flu is also a highly contagious and deadly disease. Yes, not as deadly as covid, I get it.

In 2018 there were 2.8M deaths in the US. If that was 4.5M per year due to covid does that mean we change our way of life? Why was the 2.8M acceptable and 4.5M is not? Where is the line and who decides? Everyone has a viewpoint

All policies/laws/rules are generally based on what the majority wants and to some extent on religious beliefs. Generally most reasonable people can come to an agreement on what that is and whether it?s beneficial to society. Covid is unique because of the negative economic impact the shutdowns have and governments seem to think that is the only way to get things under control.

So one side cares about the money and the other cares about the lives. No right or wrong answer.

If you really want to apply logic you do what?s best for the majority and that would be for the 99% survivors. It can easily be argued that it?s illogical to ruin everything for the 1%.

You see, IC and IHO? qwerty is following the logic he believes. What say you?

 

[Irvinecommuter]

You guys shut down as soon as covid is compared to the flu. The flu is also a highly contagious and deadly disease. Yes, not as deadly as covid, I get it.

In 2018 there were 2.8M deaths in the US. If that was 4.5M per year due to covid does that mean we change our way of life? Why was the 2.8M acceptable and 4.5M is not? Where is the line and who decides? Everyone has a viewpoint

All policies/laws/rules are generally based on what the majority wants and to some extent on religious beliefs. Generally most reasonable people can come to an agreement on what that is and whether it?s beneficial to society. Covid is unique because of the negative economic impact the shutdowns have and governments seem to think that is the only way to get things under control.

So one side cares about the money and the other cares about the lives. No right or wrong answer.

If you really want to apply logic you do what?s best for the majority and that would be for the 99% survivors. It can easily be argued that it?s illogical to ruin everything for the 1%.

1)  No..no one shut down because COVID is like the flu...we have flu season every year...zero shutdowns.  We had SARS and H1N1...again no shutdowns.  Rather than concluding that COVID is the same as the other diseases we have previously dealt with...shouldn't it make more sense to see COVID as unique and much more impactful?

2)  2.8 million is acceptable?  How much time, money, and energy do we spend a year on trying to reduce heart disease, cure cancer, and reduce death?  How many of the 2.8 million are acute death?  Dying is a nature way of life and most people can accept it...having people die suddenly and unexpected however is completely different

3)  You have not even discussed the impact on the healthcare/medical system...hospitals are being overwhelmed by COVID cases, which is affecting healthcare professionals and the medical care system.  That has significant short and long term issues.

4)  Yes...in a way it is a money v people analysis but if we were being economically logical about this, we would have done this right the first time and be on the path to recovery now...instead we acted like babies and children and are now paying the price for it.  Government is not shutting down cause it's hilarious or fun...it's a last resort measure.  Again...had we done things properly...there would be no need for a shutdown...Taiwan never shutdown.

5)  Again...you are talking about risk.  1% risk is not small...it is incredibly high...casinos are built on 1 to 2% difference in risk.

 

[eyephone]

As I previously stated you should consider more than covid deaths. You should also consider the covid survivors with serious health conditions due to covid.

 

[Irvinecommuter]

You see, IC and IHO? qwerty is following the logic he believes. What say you?

I say when it comes to healthcare and public policy issues, I follow what the experts and scientists say. 

Just like when there is a lawsuit, I follow the advice of counsel and what the judges say rather than just make up my own set of laws and procedures.

 

[Mety]

1)  Religion by definition is "illogical"...it requires faith with means belief without factual basis.  For example, being a Christian means that you believe an unknown deity made himself a human being and sacrificed himself for to bring everlasting life for the entirety of humanity.  There is no "logic" there...you either believe it or not.  It is highly personal and impossible to prove.

Sorry, but that is not Christianity. As much as you try to defend false information, I try to sort out things that can mislead people in Christian faith.

In Christian faith, you believe God because He made Himself known to you. He is not an unknown deity. He made heavens and earth, everything you see around. He made Himself known that way before anything. Then once you realize you're not worthy to be with such a powerful holy deity, God reveals His Son Jesus for the only way you can be with God the Father ultimately. To know more about Jesus is by hearing the gospel, by hearing The Holy Bible. As you know more and more, of course with doubts time to time, everything becomes very logical He created things the way He did. It is a very logical faith once you actually know. And you can prove by how the one faithful man/woman loves.

That's seems like a highly subjective and personal experience that cannot be proven scientifically or with logic.  As certain as you are about God and Jesus as Christian, you will find others who express equal certainty about being a Muslim, a Buddhist, a Jew, a Hindu, or an agnostic.

It's not logical at all...it may make sense to you but it is literally the opposite of logic.

By definition...Faith:

strong belief in God or in the doctrines of a religion, based on spiritual apprehension rather than proof.

I will give you another example...how do you know that God created the world?  How do you prove it to a nonbeliever?  Is it something you can demonstrate and prove?

If I were to say I had a power to prove that by one post here, that would be illogical, wouldn't it?

Not sure if you've studied science deeply, but more and more you get to know how this universe runs and how a small creature in this universe, a human, is functioning with cells, molecules, and all the biological components, you WILL come to conclude there must be a God who makes and controls all these. Sure, that is an emotional belief. But that is also a logic concluded by many scientists.

 

[Mety]

You see, IC and IHO? qwerty is following the logic he believes. What say you?

I say when it comes to healthcare and public policy issues, I follow what the experts and scientists say. 

Just like when there is a lawsuit, I follow the advice of counsel and what the judges say rather than just make up my own set of laws and procedures.

You mean experts and scientists YOU CHOOSE to listen to? Are you sure all 100% of them are saying the same thing?

 

[eyephone]

You see, IC and IHO? qwerty is following the logic he believes. What say you?

I say when it comes to healthcare and public policy issues, I follow what the experts and scientists say. 

Just like when there is a lawsuit, I follow the advice of counsel and what the judges say rather than just make up my own set of laws and procedures.

This might sound funny. But people are brainwashed to believe covid is fake or not serious.

 

[Mety]

You see, IC and IHO? qwerty is following the logic he believes. What say you?

I say when it comes to healthcare and public policy issues, I follow what the experts and scientists say. 

Just like when there is a lawsuit, I follow the advice of counsel and what the judges say rather than just make up my own set of laws and procedures.

This might sound funny. But people are brainwashed to believe covid is fake or not serious.

Yeah, that's funny. Who said that? I don't think anyone said that here.

 

[Irvinecommuter]

If I were to say I had a power to prove that by one post here, that would be illogical, wouldn't it?

Not sure if you've studied science deeply, but more and more you get to know how this universe runs and how a small creature in this universe, a human, is functioning with cells, molecules, and all the biological components, you WILL come to conclude there must be a God who makes and controls all these. Sure, that is an emotional belief. But that is also a logic concluded by many scientists.

And there are plenty of people and scientists who believe the opposite..because humans cannot prove God.  He either is or is not.  You certainly cannot prove that your version of God is the "right" version...you cannot even prove the existence of God because our minds are so tiny that we cannot fathom.  Conversely...you cannot disprove God or religion because they are not proveable things.

Point is that faith is belief in the absence of objective proof or logic.  You hold those belief regardless of what the outside world or proveable facts are. 

Logic requires proveability and replication...God by definition is not proveable to anyone outside of yourself.

Even in the Bible, God had to reveal Himself in physical ways such as a burning bush or having a big fish swallow a person for that person to believe. 

 

[Irvinecommuter]

Yeah, that's funny. Who said that? I don't think anyone said that here.

That doesn't matter because there are plenty of people who do...including Trump and various GOP leaders who repeatedly stated that COVID is overblown, overhyped by the media, and will go away as soon as the November elections are over.

 

[Irvinecommuter]

You see, IC and IHO? qwerty is following the logic he believes. What say you?

I say when it comes to healthcare and public policy issues, I follow what the experts and scientists say. 

Just like when there is a lawsuit, I follow the advice of counsel and what the judges say rather than just make up my own set of laws and procedures.

This might sound funny. But people are brainwashed to believe covid is fake or not serious.

Watching and listening to those who are downplaying COVID sound like what I hear on People's Court or Pro per parties...it totally make sense in their mind on how the law should be and what they think is right when in fact they are completely off-base. 

 

[Irvinecommuter]

You see, IC and IHO? qwerty is following the logic he believes. What say you?

I say when it comes to healthcare and public policy issues, I follow what the experts and scientists say. 

Just like when there is a lawsuit, I follow the advice of counsel and what the judges say rather than just make up my own set of laws and procedures.

You mean experts and scientists YOU CHOOSE to listen to? Are you sure all 100% of them are saying the same thing?

I choose to listen?  No...it's what almost all of the scientists and experts say...I don't need 100% agreement to make decisions. 

If you go to 10 doctors and 9 of them say you have cancer and need treatment...do you say...hey I probably don't have cancer cause not all ten agree?

 

[Irvinecommuter]

But no one was asking which side was more logical.

You have put it nicely that favors your position, but still have not proven about the long term effects of Covid in health. You only demonstrated what you believe with sources you might have on your own from articles, etc.

Logic is logic...logic may not fit your personal feeling or sense but that does not negate objective logic.  You can continue to argue that 1+1 is not 2 but that doesn't change the logic or math of it.

You seem to be confusing logic with personal preference and subjective "common sense".

How exactly would you like to it to be proven?  Conversely, what is your evidence that there are no material long-term effects?

"Logic is logic like math is math" does sound correct, but the issue is that which logic are we talking about? You can say my logic is like math 1+1=2. Sure, but your logic might be illogical to others. You don't think so? You say that is a subjective common sense, but how do you know your logic is not a subjective common sense? You say 1% of the US population is huge. Yes, that is logical. But others might say 1% is a too small of a number. That is logical too. You don't think so? What makes your logic deserves to be the only logic where there is a counter logic which is also true? My point here is not to prove I'm more logical. My point here is what you say logical might actually be a preference subjective matter after all. Of course, you won't admit it.

I'm not in a position to prove or debunk the long term effects. You guys are the ones who say there are long term effects with Covid. YOU need to prove it. I'll say though, we're less than a year having this virus. How can we determine it'll have long term effects while we have only studied this virus less than a year? Am I being illogical?

No...the effects of the disease is not debatable.  What we do in response to that those effects are.  As you said...whether 3.3 million death is acceptable is subjective but that decision needs to be based upon 3.3 million...not hey..it's not really 3.3 million. 

That's the mark difference...almost every argument I have had on this issue starts with 1) COVID is not that bad, 2) most people don't die from it, and 3) it's not really 250K. 

The debate should start with...250K are dead and our medical system is being stretched to the limit...are we okay with that and if we are, what are we willing to accept.  Is 500K death okay?  What about 1 million?

In many ways, I am okay with Qwerty's analysis on issues (although I disagree with them) because he recognize the risk and simply states that he is okay with the outcomes.  Most people are not willing to accept those outcome and try to belittle or ignore those potential outcome because it does not fit their beliefs or narratives. 

Just come out and say that you are okay with like 400K death by January because it probably won't affect you and you think being with your family and friend to eat turkey is more important.  Not this "oh my goodness George Washington and the gang are turning over in their graves" bit.

There is evidence that COVID has longterm effects...one year is long term.  You confuse long term from permanent.