2010 Woodbury/WBE New Home Pricing

[quote author="graceomalley"]Benchmark pricing $375/sf as predicted 18 months ago on flat land. Value village Stonegate $355/sf

Read old IHB forum posts.

Orchard Hills: $433/sf
Laguna Crossing $455/sf

I don't endorse these numbers but they are my calculation based on $4mi/acre plus infrastructure. Unless TIC is willing to accept a lower land price I do not see prices coming down.

Judging from the absorption I don't see prices coming down at all unless competition arises. VOC and Great Park are both in the coffin and resales are in shadow.

TIC again monopolizes the market. Timing and strategy could not have been better. Sheeple's desperation also fueled TIC's overwhelming success.

BagOChip allowed TIC to sell more quantity to lower value ratio starting in the $345/sf. Options would allow TIC to profit more by CA Room conversions.[/quote]


Wow. This is why I have so much repect for you like others. Thanks for sharing and keep posting here. Just have to excuse some of my thoughts being a sheeple and all. Hopfully I don't do it too much. I come in with the thought of it is what it is. There are just forces out there that I can't fight against. That's why I have fallen to APPLE (iPhone and recently converted and still learning how to use a Mac). <!-- s:) -->:)<!-- s:) -->
 
[quote author="graceomalley"]Chinese buyers are preventing Irvine from reaching the bottom. Other neighboring cities have see greater depreciation except for Irvine.

From an investment perspective it is best to buy low in the Irvine adjacent cities since they are the lowest right now and let the prices escalate. The margin is there while Irvine is safe but there is very little margin.

History of the last 3 recessions have shown the Irvine fringes RE prices rose the most but also were less stable.

The key is to know when to buy and to sell like stocks. Santa Ana and Tustin for examples had an increase of 350%. When you see a lot of risky construction products like high rise, podium and wraps that is when the right time to sell.

If you are not a risk taker then Irvine is a safe bet.

Asians are the biggest risk taker at the Casino but seldom a gambler with their home purchase.[/quote]

This is not a discussion on race or anything, but how about the Koreans? I see a lot of them when we were going out looking at resells. I mean, we sold our house to Koreans recently too. We definitely got more Korean business cards when our house was on the market.
 
[quote author="fe9000"]
[quote author="graceomalley"]Benchmark pricing $375/sf as predicted 18 months ago on flat land. Value village Stonegate $355/sf

Read old IHB forum posts.

Orchard Hills: $433/sf
Laguna Crossing $455/sf

I don't endorse these numbers but they are my calculation based on $4mi/acre plus infrastructure. Unless TIC is willing to accept a lower land price I do not see prices coming down.

Judging from the absorption I don't see prices coming down at all unless competition arises. VOC and Great Park are both in the coffin and resales are in shadow.

TIC again monopolizes the market. Timing and strategy could not have been better. Sheeple's desperation also fueled TIC's overwhelming success.

BagOChip allowed TIC to sell more quantity to lower value ratio starting in the $345/sf. Options would allow TIC to profit more by CA Room conversions.[/quote]


Wow. This is why I have so much repect for you like others. Thanks for sharing and keep posting here. Just have to excuse some of my thoughts being a sheeple and all. Hopfully I don't do it too much. I come in with the thought of it is what it is. There are just forces out there that I can't fight against. That's why I have fallen to APPLE (iPhone and recently converted and still learning how to use a Mac). <!-- s:) -->:)<!-- s:) -->[/quote]

This is why we need leaders and followers. The leaders need to dictate rules for the followers.

I have studied traits of followers. Once you know the Achilles' heel of the followers then market products to their needs.
 
Thanks BK as always for your input, even though it is hard to swallow sometimes... as IR mentioned on Sat, it will be interesting to see how the collection does at years end... interest rates have not where to go but up, and that will hopefully bring prices down a bit along with the end of the tax credits...

You also bring up a few good points about resale, from some accounts they are moving them a bit faster, I have to take a few WB New vs Old polls, but they got to come down a bit. For those who live at VOC, what is happening on the ground there? Are they still building & selling? Vernadas? Gables? Are there any empty land still around there?

The wild card here is still the Shadow Inventory again IR did a fairly good post last year. The banks are in control with this one; not FCBs. If I start to see some of these empty homes in WB that I've been keeping track of come online then, that should also bring the prices down.
 
VoC is done for now... only a few left I believe. But there is still quite a lot of empty space... the land that Shea (?) ran away from.
 
It all comes down to inventory levels...don't look for prices to go down when there is less than 3 months of inventory for sale. We'll need inventory levels to about double before prices will begin softening. Currently, demand is outpacing supply.
 
[quote author="USCTrojanCPA"]It all comes down to inventory levels...don't look for prices to go down when there is less than 3 months of inventory for sale. We'll need inventory levels to about double before prices will begin softening. Currently, demand is outpacing supply. [/quote]

We have overcome the static inertia phase. The current momentum will need quite a bit of friction to slow it down. The 2010 collection has not only created its own success made possible by sheeple but also renewed the faith of sellers to hold out as long as possible for the best benchmark prices.

I am afraid to announce it and to my displeasure that Irvine has scraped bottom with TIC again protecting its investment by carefully plotting every economic move. From here on will be price increase of how much or little.

This is the point of inflection from buyers market to sellers market. Irvine is the epicenter. Builders across the country will be in Irvine to view the 2010 Collection. It will be a faithful revival for the housing industry.

http://email.usedelivered.com/T/ViewEmail/y/89DB2395E2BE50EA/084AE23F7C8A7C67D9767B6002735221
 
[quote author="fe9000"]
[quote author="graceomalley"]Chinese buyers are preventing Irvine from reaching the bottom. Other neighboring cities have see greater depreciation except for Irvine.

From an investment perspective it is best to buy low in the Irvine adjacent cities since they are the lowest right now and let the prices escalate. The margin is there while Irvine is safe but there is very little margin.

History of the last 3 recessions have shown the Irvine fringes RE prices rose the most but also were less stable.

The key is to know when to buy and to sell like stocks. Santa Ana and Tustin for examples had an increase of 350%. When you see a lot of risky construction products like high rise, podium and wraps that is when the right time to sell.

If you are not a risk taker then Irvine is a safe bet.

Asians are the biggest risk taker at the Casino but seldom a gambler with their home purchase.[/quote]

This is not a discussion on race or anything, but how about the Koreans? I see a lot of them when we were going out looking at resells. I mean, we sold our house to Koreans recently too. We definitely got more Korean business cards when our house was on the market.[/quote]

Koreans do not have deep pocket like the Chinese. They are interested too but will not outbid the Chinese. Chinese enjoy winning and sometimes it can be costly to their pocket book and families.
 
[quote author="roundcorners"]Thanks BK as always for your input, even though it is hard to swallow sometimes... as IR mentioned on Sat, it will be interesting to see how the collection does at years end... interest rates have not where to go but up, and that will hopefully bring prices down a bit along with the end of the tax credits...

You also bring up a few good points about resale, from some accounts they are moving them a bit faster, I have to take a few WB New vs Old polls, but they got to come down a bit. For those who live at VOC, what is happening on the ground there? Are they still building & selling? Vernadas? Gables? Are there any empty land still around there?

The wild card here is still the Shadow Inventory again IR did a fairly good post last year. The banks are in control with this one; not FCBs. If I start to see some of these empty homes in WB that I've been keeping track of come online then, that should also bring the prices down.[/quote]

The truths are always hard to swallow. All good medicines taste bitter.
 
Oh C'mon BK are you serious? "Koreans don't have deep pockets like the Chinese!" Is that the reason why all the Koreans live in Northwood Point and the Chinese live in Turtle Rock?
 
[quote author="Panda "]Oh C'mon BK are you serious? "Koreans don't have deep pockets like the Chinese!" Is that the reason why all the Koreans live in Northwood Point and the Chinese live in Turtle Rock?[/quote]

Correction:

Chinese dominate Turtle Rock
More Koreans live in Northwood Pointe than other villages but Chinese out numbered Koreans 3:1 at NPointe.

Check Northwood HS for census.
 
I read an article in a January Business Week about the Chinese real estate bubble and how prices are above $300/sft over there. Imagine what their median income is and how that compares.

Maybe that's why we're seeing heightened FCB activity in Irvine.

And I do think Koreans have just as much access to cash as all the other Fs in FCB... look at Panda and all the gold he bought!
 
[quote author="graceomalley"]
[quote author="Panda "]Oh C'mon BK are you serious? "Koreans don't have deep pockets like the Chinese!" Is that the reason why all the Koreans live in Northwood Point and the Chinese live in Turtle Rock?[/quote]

Correction:

Chinese dominate Turtle Rock
More Koreans live in Northwood Pointe than other villages but Chinese out numbered Koreans 3:1 at NPointe.

Check Northwood HS for census.[/quote]

BK, serious question. Why do you think that there are two Koreans and no Chinese represented in the Irvine Council while the Chinese population far exceeds the Koreans in Irvine?

http://www.cityofirvine.org/council/default.asp
 
[quote author="irvinehomeowner"]

And I do think Koreans have just as much access to cash as all the other Fs in FCB... look at Panda and all the gold he bought![/quote]

Agreed! We had two offers on our house, both Koreans. Maybe they were in a different price point but no Chinese made an offer, or perhaps they thought the house is too small.
 
Sukhee is an amazing immigrant against all odd became a story of success. Having apprenticed with 2 previous mayors of Irvine Sukhee gained much insight into Irvine politic and developments.

His main supporters have been Asian business owners and scholars. Chinese supported him and rallied for him. I among many other Chinese business owners made large contribution to his campaign.

He may be Korean and in his heart he saw no division among Chinese and Koreans. He is a supporter of the Chinese Cultural Center and he is the voice among all Asians.

I wish there are more public servants like him but Chinese parents made a huge financial investment to be in the irvine school district preparing their children to be doctors and lawyers. Politicians, cops and firemen are definitely not on the list.

Does this explain why few Chinese are in Politic.
 
[quote author="graceomalley"]

I wish there are more public servants like him but Chinese parents made a huge financial investment to be in the irvine school district preparing their children to be doctors and lawyers. Politicians, cops and firemen are definitely not on the list.

Does this explain why few Chinese are in Politic.
[/quote]

Korean parents are the same exact way. I'm Korean and my brother is a doctor and I worked for a public accounting firm out of college. Trust me, when we were kids we thought being a fireman/cop/actor/musician/athlete was cool like anyone else...but that was viewed the same as if we told them that we dreamt of a career in being a server at sizzler.

I have 2 korean friends who want to be politicians in the future but in was NOT because of their parent's encouragement and/or influence. What their parents encouraged them to do is what they're doing now...working at top tier firms as attorneys.

As for cash, I'd say almost every Chinese person has cash no matter how bummy some may look. Korean's on the other hand, some have cash, some don't. And the ones that don't, do their best to keep up w/ the Kims and front. That's why if you go to any apartment complex in Ktown, any Korean church, club, restaurant, the entire parking lot is BMW's and Mercedes.

For most koreans, it's all about image. That's why they rike praces rike irbine so bery much.
 
And here I was surprised that haiku was giving us a normal post... until the very last sentence.

Bad HAIKU... BAD HAIKU!
 
[quote author="haiku"]
[quote author="graceomalley"]

I wish there are more public servants like him but Chinese parents made a huge financial investment to be in the irvine school district preparing their children to be doctors and lawyers. Politicians, cops and firemen are definitely not on the list.

Does this explain why few Chinese are in Politic.
[/quote]

Korean parents are the same exact way. I'm Korean and my brother is a doctor and I worked for a public accounting firm out of college. Trust me, when we were kids we thought being a fireman/cop/actor/musician/athlete was cool like anyone else...but that was viewed the same as if we told them that we dreamt of a career in being a server at sizzler.

I have 2 korean friends who want to be politicians in the future but in was NOT because of their parent's encouragement and/or influence. What their parents encouraged them to do is what they're doing now...working at top tier firms as attorneys.

As for cash, I'd say almost every Chinese person has cash no matter how bummy some may look. Korean's on the other hand, some have cash, some don't. And the ones that don't, do their best to keep up w/ the Kims and front. That's why if you go to any apartment complex in Ktown, any Korean church, club, restaurant, the entire parking lot is BMW's and Mercedes.

For most koreans, it's all about image. That's why they rike praces rike irbine so bery much.



[/quote]
Interesting info. Btw, which accounting firm did you work for out of college? I worked at PwC for 4+ years out of college.
 
[quote author="USCTrojanCPA"]
[quote author="haiku"]

Korean parents are the same exact way. I'm Korean and my brother is a doctor and I worked for a public accounting firm out of college. Trust me, when we were kids we thought being a fireman/cop/actor/musician/athlete was cool like anyone else...but that was viewed the same as if we told them that we dreamt of a career in being a server at sizzler.

I have 2 korean friends who want to be politicians in the future but in was NOT because of their parent's encouragement and/or influence. What their parents encouraged them to do is what they're doing now...working at top tier firms as attorneys.

As for cash, I'd say almost every Chinese person has cash no matter how bummy some may look. Korean's on the other hand, some have cash, some don't. And the ones that don't, do their best to keep up w/ the Kims and front. That's why if you go to any apartment complex in Ktown, any Korean church, club, restaurant, the entire parking lot is BMW's and Mercedes.

For most koreans, it's all about image. That's why they rike praces rike irbine so bery much.



[/quote]
Interesting info. Btw, which accounting firm did you work for out of college? I worked at PwC for 4+ years out of college.[/quote]

Deloitte. Loved it there but unfortunately took the bait of more money/higher title and went private. greed never pays.

Btw, no offense to any of those professions in my earlier post. Probably make more money and are happier. Just sharing the views of many korean parents and what it was like for me and my korean friends growing up.
 
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