2010 Woodbury/WB East New Home Collection

[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1258616040]I guess it was okay for Irvine to be overpriced when everywhere else was overpriced (yes... I'm looking at you Inland Empire and geotpf) but now that those areas have dropped substantially, it's kind of hard to justify paying so much more than everywhere else.



Hence... IHO's trips to South County recently.



(why am I talking about myself in the 3rd person PANDA style?)</blockquote>


Honestly, Irvine will always be overpriced compared to most everywhere else. Its overpriced for a reason and a good reason at that.
 
[quote author="CK" date=1258444797][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1258443650]I also think there is a stigma in buying in places like Ladera Ranch and Aliso Viejo in regards to Mello Roos and HOAs. Sure, there are similar costs in Irvine, but they feel there is value in those costs in Irvine infrastructure and amenities whereas in LR and AV... not so much.



I think CK is actually a more hardcore Irvinite than I am... because I've actually been looking in Aliso, Laguna Niguel, Mission Viejo and even San Diego-- err-- Clemente (almost the same distance right?).</blockquote>


Yes I am...trust me, I've gone through the whole process. Gone to open houses and researched schools and neighborhoods everywhere from Villa Park on down to Ladera Ranch --- but each time the answer comes back the same. I know on this board I may be in the minority in wanting nothing but Irvine --- but I am comfortable in knowing I have weighed all the options. This city is not for everyone, but for us it is the pefect mix of everything we value.</blockquote>
If prices don't come down in Irvine and you can't find something that you would like to buy, are you willing to rent for the longer term in Irvine? I mean, why pay a 25-30% premium to own a home in Irvine when you still live here by rent? It's an easy answer for me.
 
[quote author="Fishy333" date=1258616675][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1258616040]I guess it was okay for Irvine to be overpriced when everywhere else was overpriced (yes... I'm looking at you Inland Empire and geotpf) but now that those areas have dropped substantially, it's kind of hard to justify paying so much more than everywhere else.



Hence... IHO's trips to South County recently.



(why am I talking about myself in the 3rd person PANDA style?)</blockquote>


Honestly, Irvine will always be overpriced compared to most everywhere else. Its overpriced for a reason and a good reason at that.</blockquote>


Reason says, "Amen!"
 
[quote author="Fishy333" date=1258616675][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1258616040]I guess it was okay for Irvine to be overpriced when everywhere else was overpriced (yes... I'm looking at you Inland Empire and geotpf) but now that those areas have dropped substantially, it's kind of hard to justify paying so much more than everywhere else.



Hence... IHO's trips to South County recently.



(why am I talking about myself in the 3rd person PANDA style?)</blockquote>


Honestly, Irvine will always be overpriced compared to most everywhere else. Its overpriced for a reason and a good reason at that.</blockquote>
Agreed, Irvine will trade at a premium to most other cities in Orange County for the foreseeable future. Every buyer has their reasons for their purchase and what they feel is a fair value for the home (not everyone looks at a home from an objective analytical investment).
 
[quote author="USCTrojanCPA" date=1258616626][quote author="PANDA" date=1258441855][quote author="CK" date=1258372844][quote author="PANDA" date=1258370749]



LOL. CK you know me too well and you are absolutely correct about the statement you made above. Irvine's inventory is so freakin tight right now at 500, it is to the point of being ridiculous! I won't lose my focus and keep my eyes on the prize. You too CK!</blockquote>


Yep, we are still focused. I'm seriously starting to have doubts about where Irvine ultimately lands --- but still holding out *hope* for that $250/sq ft median I had convinced myself would come to pass. I'm now coming up on my 3 year anniversary of reading IHB, and thought things would be more normalized than they are by this point. I mean, seriously --- it's almost 2010 and here we are with:



- Irvine homes are down what, 10% from peak? Yeah, there are some big losers down 30%+, but overall its just not that bad here compared to surrounding areas.



- A house on our very street just sold for $365/sq ft (over asking price with multiple bids). Uh, yeah. That's great if you own on this street. Not so great if you want to own on this street.



- Shadow inventory is still, well, in the shadows



- TIC held for a couple years, and is now confident enough to roll out a boat load of new homes. They are a lot of things, but stupid business people I think not.



- And last but certainly not least --- Irvine Renter is now selling houses



So WTF? Is this it? Is this the bottom? Is the big bang we were all waiting for just a big busto?



But all that said, Panda --- even if this is it, we are still not ditching Irvine. There ARE properties here for every price range...and even if our $550k target only gets us a really nice townhouse (and it would get us that today) or an older SFR, we are fine. I'm not willing to compromise on the location. Others may feel differently, but IMO a big backyard is not worth it you are spending all your time on a commute, or live so damn far out none of your friends want to come see you on the weekends.</blockquote>


These words from above from CK are coming from a true die hard Irvine fan. When unemployment rises to 15%, mortgage rates are at 10%, DOW is at 6000 and when T-man tells everyone here that buying Irvine real estate is a loser by 2012... If $600k only buys me IPO's 1600 sq/ft detach condo or a nice townhouse in Irvine that is what I shall buy because Panda is also a die hard Irvine fan.</blockquote>
For now, there is no blood on the streets of Irvine and if interest rates stay below 6% and the economy doesn't fall off a cliff, I would not look for Irvine home prices to come down more than 5-10% from current value at most. There's a good bit of demand out there for Irvine homes and the lack of inventory is causing a frenzy for desperate buyers which results in them bidding up properties due to frustration. Think about it, we went from over 1,300 homes on the market about 2 years ago to less than 500 today (2.5 month supply). That's called a strong seller's market.</blockquote>


Panda wants to see some Asian blood NOW!
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1258617328][quote author="USCTrojanCPA" date=1258616626][quote author="PANDA" date=1258441855][quote author="CK" date=1258372844][quote author="PANDA" date=1258370749]



LOL. CK you know me too well and you are absolutely correct about the statement you made above. Irvine's inventory is so freakin tight right now at 500, it is to the point of being ridiculous! I won't lose my focus and keep my eyes on the prize. You too CK!</blockquote>


Yep, we are still focused. I'm seriously starting to have doubts about where Irvine ultimately lands --- but still holding out *hope* for that $250/sq ft median I had convinced myself would come to pass. I'm now coming up on my 3 year anniversary of reading IHB, and thought things would be more normalized than they are by this point. I mean, seriously --- it's almost 2010 and here we are with:



- Irvine homes are down what, 10% from peak? Yeah, there are some big losers down 30%+, but overall its just not that bad here compared to surrounding areas.



- A house on our very street just sold for $365/sq ft (over asking price with multiple bids). Uh, yeah. That's great if you own on this street. Not so great if you want to own on this street.



- Shadow inventory is still, well, in the shadows



- TIC held for a couple years, and is now confident enough to roll out a boat load of new homes. They are a lot of things, but stupid business people I think not.



- And last but certainly not least --- Irvine Renter is now selling houses



So WTF? Is this it? Is this the bottom? Is the big bang we were all waiting for just a big busto?



But all that said, Panda --- even if this is it, we are still not ditching Irvine. There ARE properties here for every price range...and even if our $550k target only gets us a really nice townhouse (and it would get us that today) or an older SFR, we are fine. I'm not willing to compromise on the location. Others may feel differently, but IMO a big backyard is not worth it you are spending all your time on a commute, or live so damn far out none of your friends want to come see you on the weekends.</blockquote>


These words from above from CK are coming from a true die hard Irvine fan. When unemployment rises to 15%, mortgage rates are at 10%, DOW is at 6000 and when T-man tells everyone here that buying Irvine real estate is a loser by 2012... If $600k only buys me IPO's 1600 sq/ft detach condo or a nice townhouse in Irvine that is what I shall buy because Panda is also a die hard Irvine fan.</blockquote>
For now, there is no blood on the streets of Irvine and if interest rates stay below 6% and the economy doesn't fall off a cliff, I would not look for Irvine home prices to come down more than 5-10% from current value at most. There's a good bit of demand out there for Irvine homes and the lack of inventory is causing a frenzy for desperate buyers which results in them bidding up properties due to frustration. Think about it, we went from over 1,300 homes on the market about 2 years ago to less than 500 today (2.5 month supply). That's called a strong seller's market.</blockquote>


Panda wants to see some Asian blood NOW!</blockquote>
Not gonna happen until one or more of the following 4 things happen:



1. Inventory levels increase by over 50% from current levels

2. Interest rates get above 6%-7%

3. The US economy takes a big dump and unemployment goes above 12-15%

4. Asian economies take a big dump from current levels



Until then, he prepared to deal with multiple bidders are decently priced (compared to comps) Irvine homes.
 
Seriously.. it is not the FCBs that piss me off about Irvine, but if the banks start remodifying every milliion dollar loan for woodbury homeowners who are about to foreclose down to $400k so that they can keep their homes would certainly piss me off. Rewarding the irresponsible and punishing the responsible is not right.
 
[quote author="Fishy333" date=1258616675]

Honestly, Irvine will always be overpriced compared to most everywhere else. Its overpriced for a reason and a good reason at that.</blockquote>
Well... there's overpriced and then there's OVERoverpriced.



Back when the median was lower, a 10-20% difference wasn't much... but nowadaways, that difference can be $100-$200k. And for bigger homes, that difference is more like 40%... I saw some 3000sft homes in South County that were in the mid $700ks... compared to Irvine ones that would probably be $1m or higher... I dunno... my love for Irvine may not be worth $300k.
 
By the way... TIC is working hard on selling their new 2010 collection... I get emails weekly... the latest is trying to use the kitchen as a lure... how do they know I like to eat?

<blockquote>

Subject: <strong>New kitchens with all the ingredients coming January!</strong>

It?s no surprise that kitchens are the most popular room in the house. That?s why The 2010 New Home Collection will deliver kitchens that work better for everyone in all eight neighborhoods coming to the Villages of Woodbury and Woodbury East. Look forward to the perfect space for everday living and those special family gatherings.



Kitchens are often called the heart of the home. People inevitably gather there to help cook or just visit with the chef. Explore all 25 innovative floorplans online to see several plans with enlarged kitchen islands that flow effortlessly into Great Rooms. Pantries offer prized storage space just where it?s needed. Explore the neighborhood where you could enjoy a great new space for the whole family. Be sure to tell us which neighborhoods you want to be added to the interest list for and remember to mark your calendar for December 3rd, when Priority Registration begins!

</blockquote>
 
[quote author="USCTrojanCPA" date=1258616769]

If prices don't come down in Irvine and you can't find something that you would like to buy, are you willing to rent for the longer term in Irvine? </blockquote>


Yes.



We do want to buy the house we lease now, but why would we buy it when we can live in the same place for $2k less every month? Even with the low interest rates, our rent payment pencils out to about a $450k purchase price (incl tax/hoa, etc). I don't think there is any way we could buy it today for a penny under $650k. So we wait -- we are locked in until the end of 2010, so we've got some time. If the owner decides to sell at the end of next year, then we will have a decision to make.
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1258619573][quote author="Fishy333" date=1258616675]

Honestly, Irvine will always be overpriced compared to most everywhere else. Its overpriced for a reason and a good reason at that.</blockquote>
Well... there's overpriced and then there's OVERoverpriced.



Back when the median was lower, a 10-20% difference wasn't much... but nowadaways, that difference can be $100-$200k. And for bigger homes, that difference is more like 40%... I saw some 3000sft homes in South County that were in the mid $700ks... compared to Irvine ones that would probably be $1m or higher... I dunno... my love for Irvine may not be worth $300k.</blockquote>
One of my buyers is in escrow for a 3,000+sf 5bedroom home with a 3-car garage in a gated community in Laguna Niguel for less than $270/sf of a home that is very nicely upgraded. This home would easily be easily be around $1.2M in Irvine. That's about a $400k premium.
 
[quote author="CK" date=1258620596][quote author="USCTrojanCPA" date=1258616769]

If prices don't come down in Irvine and you can't find something that you would like to buy, are you willing to rent for the longer term in Irvine? </blockquote>


Yes.



We do want to buy the house we lease now, but why would we buy it when we can live in the same place for $2k less every month? Even with the low interest rates, our rent payment pencils out to about a $450k purchase price (incl tax/hoa, etc). I don't think there is any way we could buy it today for a penny under $650k. So we wait -- we are locked in until the end of 2010, so we've got some time. If the owner decides to sell at the end of next year, then we will have a decision to make.</blockquote>
I'm sorta in the same boat as you, I like being in Irvine mainly due to the general central location to where I need to be and I have no issues renting here for a long while. When it is time for me to buy, it will not be in Irvine though.
 
[quote author="USCTrojanCPA" date=1258620873][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1258619573][quote author="Fishy333" date=1258616675]

Honestly, Irvine will always be overpriced compared to most everywhere else. Its overpriced for a reason and a good reason at that.</blockquote>
Well... there's overpriced and then there's OVERoverpriced.



Back when the median was lower, a 10-20% difference wasn't much... but nowadaways, that difference can be $100-$200k. And for bigger homes, that difference is more like 40%... I saw some 3000sft homes in South County that were in the mid $700ks... compared to Irvine ones that would probably be $1m or higher... I dunno... my love for Irvine may not be worth $300k.</blockquote>
One of my buyers is in escrow for a 3,000+sf 5bedroom home with a 3-car garage in a gated community in Laguna Niguel for less than $270/sf of a home that is very nicely upgraded. This home would easily be easily be around $1.2M in Irvine. That's about a $400k premium.</blockquote>
And there is no Mello Roos in Laguna Niguel... that's another $5k or more savings a year.
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1258621404][quote author="USCTrojanCPA" date=1258620873][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1258619573][quote author="Fishy333" date=1258616675]

Honestly, Irvine will always be overpriced compared to most everywhere else. Its overpriced for a reason and a good reason at that.</blockquote>
Well... there's overpriced and then there's OVERoverpriced.



Back when the median was lower, a 10-20% difference wasn't much... but nowadaways, that difference can be $100-$200k. And for bigger homes, that difference is more like 40%... I saw some 3000sft homes in South County that were in the mid $700ks... compared to Irvine ones that would probably be $1m or higher... I dunno... my love for Irvine may not be worth $300k.</blockquote>
One of my buyers is in escrow for a 3,000+sf 5bedroom home with a 3-car garage in a gated community in Laguna Niguel for less than $270/sf of a home that is very nicely upgraded. This home would easily be easily be around $1.2M in Irvine. That's about a $400k premium.</blockquote>
And there is no Mello Roos in Laguna Niguel... that's another $5k or more savings a year.</blockquote>
I totally forgot about that. That $5k per year in Mello translates to about $70k-$80k in value if you capitalize it. The HOA is around $100/mo. So the premium is around $500k now...Irvine is nice and all but not that nice. Plus my buyer told me the schools in that part of LN are actually pretty good too. Funny thing was that he sold a small home in Irvine back in 2008 for over $415/sf that was half the size of this home for only about $150k less than what they will be paying for the new home.
 
[quote author="USCTrojanCPA" date=1258623318][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1258621404][quote author="USCTrojanCPA" date=1258620873][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1258619573][quote author="Fishy333" date=1258616675]

Honestly, Irvine will always be overpriced compared to most everywhere else. Its overpriced for a reason and a good reason at that.</blockquote>
Well... there's overpriced and then there's OVERoverpriced.



Back when the median was lower, a 10-20% difference wasn't much... but nowadaways, that difference can be $100-$200k. And for bigger homes, that difference is more like 40%... I saw some 3000sft homes in South County that were in the mid $700ks... compared to Irvine ones that would probably be $1m or higher... I dunno... my love for Irvine may not be worth $300k.</blockquote>
One of my buyers is in escrow for a 3,000+sf 5bedroom home with a 3-car garage in a gated community in Laguna Niguel for less than $270/sf of a home that is very nicely upgraded. This home would easily be easily be around $1.2M in Irvine. That's about a $400k premium.</blockquote>
And there is no Mello Roos in Laguna Niguel... that's another $5k or more savings a year.</blockquote>
I totally forgot about that. That $5k per year in Mello translates to about $70k-$80k in value if you capitalize it. The HOA is around $100/mo. So the premium is around $500k now...Irvine is nice and all but not that nice. Plus my buyer told me the schools in that part of LN are actually pretty good too. Funny thing was that he sold a small home in Irvine back in 2008 for over $415/sf that was half the size of this home for only about $150k less than what they will be paying for the new home.</blockquote>


There's one thing I'd have to add to my purchase price if I lived in South County and it's the toll road. $8/day x 2 cars x 5 / weeks x 4 week / month = $320 / month in fees. Unless the 5/405 drive is not as bad as I imagine...
 
[quote author="Roo" date=1258626195][quote author="USCTrojanCPA" date=1258623318][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1258621404][quote author="USCTrojanCPA" date=1258620873][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1258619573][quote author="Fishy333" date=1258616675]

Honestly, Irvine will always be overpriced compared to most everywhere else. Its overpriced for a reason and a good reason at that.</blockquote>
Well... there's overpriced and then there's OVERoverpriced.



Back when the median was lower, a 10-20% difference wasn't much... but nowadaways, that difference can be $100-$200k. And for bigger homes, that difference is more like 40%... I saw some 3000sft homes in South County that were in the mid $700ks... compared to Irvine ones that would probably be $1m or higher... I dunno... my love for Irvine may not be worth $300k.</blockquote>
One of my buyers is in escrow for a 3,000+sf 5bedroom home with a 3-car garage in a gated community in Laguna Niguel for less than $270/sf of a home that is very nicely upgraded. This home would easily be easily be around $1.2M in Irvine. That's about a $400k premium.</blockquote>
And there is no Mello Roos in Laguna Niguel... that's another $5k or more savings a year.</blockquote>
I totally forgot about that. That $5k per year in Mello translates to about $70k-$80k in value if you capitalize it. The HOA is around $100/mo. So the premium is around $500k now...Irvine is nice and all but not that nice. Plus my buyer told me the schools in that part of LN are actually pretty good too. Funny thing was that he sold a small home in Irvine back in 2008 for over $415/sf that was half the size of this home for only about $150k less than what they will be paying for the new home.</blockquote>


There's one thing I'd have to add to my purchase price if I lived in South County and it's the toll road. $8/day x 2 cars x 5 / weeks x 4 week / month = $320 / month in fees. Unless the 5/405 drive is not as bad as I imagine...</blockquote>
$320/mo = $50k-$60k in a capitalized value over 30 years using 6% or about 10% of my buyer's savings.
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1255831423]Pricing structure for the SFRs is interesting:



2 - Montecito

Brookfield Homes

2,156 - 2,336 Sq. Ft.

From the High $600,000's



3 - Sonoma

TRI Pointe Homes

2,350 - 2,622 Sq. Ft.

From the High $700,000's



4 - Carmel

The New Home Company

2,616 - 3,046 Sq. Ft.

From the High $800,000's



5 - Villa Rosa

Lennar

2,615 - 3,161 Sq. Ft.

From the Low $1,000,000's



So Carmel is the same size range as Villa Rosa but will sell for $100k less? Poor Lennar.



Also... by the map, it shows that Carmel will be in the same area as Montecito.</blockquote>


Here's what the <a href="http://www.villagesofirvine.com/Villages-And-Residences/Woodbury-Homes.aspx">website for Woodbury</a> says now:

La Casella - from the mid $600,000s

Montecito - from the low $700,000s

Sonoma - from the mid $700,000s

Carmel - from the low $900,000s

Villa Rosa - from the low $1,000,000s



Here's <a href="http://www.villagesofirvine.com/Villages-And-Residences/Woodbury-East-Homes.aspx">Woodbury East</a>:

Ivy - from the high $300,000s

Santa Rosa - from the low $300,000s

Monterey - from the high $400,000s

Coronado - from the high $500,000s

Santa Cruz - from the mid $600,000s
 
[quote author="Matchbox" date=1256086660]Here's another showing Montecito's shared driveway.</blockquote>


But when looking at the pictures, the road doesn't really seem like a shared driveway - looks more like a regular cul-de-sac road, without the cul-de-sac. Since all homes are supposed to have FULL driveways, according to the Villages of Irvine site (under home amenities), this really doesn't look like a "shared driveway" or a "motorcourt", but just a regular small road. Does anyone else agree?
 
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