Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022

[irvine buyer]

Where's the misinformation police when you need them...oh wait, they're mostly partisan shills.  It amazes me how several key administration staffers have flip-flopped on the definition of a recession versus what they stated on record in the past.  Then there was this meeting with CEO's of major companies where Biden told them all that our country was not in a recession; and then proceeded to ask them if they thought the country was in recession.  Of course they said no.  Who wants to be the one to contradict the President and face harrassment by the media.  This is classic echo chamber behavior and I wouldn't be surprised if Biden says at some point that we are not in a recession because a room full of CEO's told him so.

[Liar Loan]

How much does Irvine's price drop during the 2008 financial crisis?

Around 25% from peak to trough with desirable SFR homes declining 15-20% and attached condos declining 30-35%. 

So if I say this, certain people think I'm biased... but this is what I've been saying for years.

Those over 50% drops in Irvine that were predicted never happened. Even 40% is more an exception than the the rule.

This is you rewriting history.  What you said for years was that Irvine declined by 15%.  Period.  End of story.

Others were treating you like some kind of expert and quoting the 15% number, saying it showed how strong Irvine was compared to other cities.

The actual data did not agree with your personal observations though.  PPSF in Irvine dropped 28% peak-to-trough.

[irvinehomeowner]

How much does Irvine's price drop during the 2008 financial crisis?

Around 25% from peak to trough with desirable SFR homes declining 15-20% and attached condos declining 30-35%. 

So if I say this, certain people think I'm biased... but this is what I've been saying for years.

Those over 50% drops in Irvine that were predicted never happened. Even 40% is more an exception than the the rule.

This is you rewriting history.  What you said for years was that Irvine declined by 15%.  Period.  End of story.

Others were treating you like some kind of expert and quoting the 15% number, saying it showed how strong Irvine was compared to other cities.

The actual data did not agree with your personal observations though.  PPSF in Irvine dropped 28% peak-to-trough.

Find the post Liar.

USC said SFRs 15-20%... I also said in homes that "I was looking at". Go find the post and then you can apologize for lying once again.

And 28% is a far cry from 40-50%+ that other people were predicting/claiming.

Period. Exclamation point.

[Liar Loan]

How much does Irvine's price drop during the 2008 financial crisis?

Around 25% from peak to trough with desirable SFR homes declining 15-20% and attached condos declining 30-35%. 

So if I say this, certain people think I'm biased... but this is what I've been saying for years.

Those over 50% drops in Irvine that were predicted never happened. Even 40% is more an exception than the the rule.

This is you rewriting history.  What you said for years was that Irvine declined by 15%.  Period.  End of story.

Others were treating you like some kind of expert and quoting the 15% number, saying it showed how strong Irvine was compared to other cities.

The actual data did not agree with your personal observations though.  PPSF in Irvine dropped 28% peak-to-trough.

Find the post Liar.

USC said SFRs 15-20%... I also said in homes that "I was looking at". Go find the post and then you can apologize for lying once again.

And 28% is a far cry from 40-50%+ that other people were predicting/claiming.

Period. Exclamation point.

Prices declined by about double what you were claiming.  Whoever predicted a 40% decline would have been closer to the mark than you.  And of course they deserve credit for predicting the decline in advance, when almost nobody believed it was possible (not even USC), while you were making the 15% false claim after the fact.

[irvinehomeowner]

Still haven't shown me this post where I made this 15% claim for all housing in Irvine. So you're still lying.

It's okay, you are wrong about this, you were wrong in 2018-2022 so you are spamming all the threads on TI so that you can finally say you were right.

Good job.

And no more responses until you find that post. I know where it is but I don't want to put more egg on your face.

[Ready2Downsize]

Every time I think prices are high in Irvine, I take a look at parts of the Bay to see real craziness. Many of those buyers are in tech and could be remote and if they could, why would they spend $4.125m ($635k over asking) for this:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Cupertino/7646-Berland-Ct-95014/home/1418200

Compared to places like Cupertino and Saratoga, Irvine is dirt cheap still. I know the job market is different there but anecdotally I'm aware of several who sold in the Bay and bought in Orange County.

It's because of Monta Vista High... the realtors even mention it in the first sentence.  So they are selling not just the house, but the illusion that the buyer's kid will get into an Ivy...

I make this point all the time - Irvine is a smokin deal if remote works for you. The higher you go the harder that is to pull off, and all the biggies want people back in the office. Saratoga is full of (mostly) Asian/South Asian CEOs and some very nice wineries, and over the hill is Santa Cruz. Cupertino is the original aspirational Asian/South Asian suburb. I did some alumni recruiting for the Viterbi School of Engineering and they held a separate session just for the Cupertino high schools. I would wager that the Bay area’s top high schools in aggregate get more UC/USC admit slots than SoCals best. Maybe Stanford/Ivies too.

I’m down here right now and it is such a refreshing change, even watching the local news. It feels so much more relaxed and less serious.

You probably already know this, but San Francisco prices are already down from 2021:

Home Prices Are Starting to Buckle in Tech-Fueled San Francisco

The median house price in the city dropped 3% from a year earlier to $1.89 million in June, according to a report Thursday by brokerage Compass Inc., after cresting above a record $2 million in the previous three months.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-07/san-francisco-home-prices-start-to-fall-as-headwinds-mount?srnd=premium

The Bay Area Housing Market Is Cooling More Rapidly Than Anywhere Else in the Country

Five of the 10 U.S. housing markets that have cooled fastest this year are in northern California–San Jose, Oakland, San Francisco, Sacramento and Stockton

https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-markets-cooling-fastest-bay-area-2022/

SF is cratering - rents down there 26% as well. Silicon Valley housing market has stalled to some extent though the $4M+ market which is usually mostly cash transactions is still robust. I am firmly convinced that rates are headed to 10% in order to puncture housing specualtion, and I look forward to buying my south OC retirement pad in a few years at 10%+ rates and a steep discount to current pricing.

You can't have mortgage rates (which are longer term) be 10% if we are in a recession and the yield curve is inverted.  Can the Fed bump the Fed Funds rates to 5%, 6%, or 8%?  Maybe but that's what short term rates are.  To get mortgage interest rates to 10% you'll need inflation to increase materially from today and if we are in recession or going into one that won't happen. Mortgage rates have already begun to roll over a bit as is. Hard to have high mortgage rates when there is demand destruction due to people losing their jobs.

Your conventional thinking logic is flawed as you're not accounting for the impact of MBS QT, which hasn't even started yet (what will the securitization market look like), nor are you considering mortage rates traded at a discount to inflation only 3 times in the last 50 years as so astutely analyzed in Lansners's recent article:
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Our parents faced double digit mort rates in a recession - so will we

I don't agree with you.  The longer term rates are the ones that anticipate inflation and now we have an inverted yield curve which basically signals that a recession is coming with longer term bond rates down over 1/2% from the peak.  The Fed will have to pivot again once they see that inflation reverses.  Not only has oil started to roll over but so have a lot of other commodities, as have car prices and home prices.  Where's the inflation going to come from if all these commodities are rolling over?  Oh and if we get more layoffs, you'll get declining earnings growth by workers.  I have this funny feeling that the Fed will be back cutting rates sometime in 2023.

1. Rents.
2. Ongoing War. Gas is lower but still up significantly
3. China COVID. Lockdowns there can impact supply chain.

1. Rents won't go up if we are in recession, rents drop slightly or worst case stay flattish
2. The ongoing war is more of a problem for Europe and as we go into recession the demand for oil/gas drops
3. This is true but the line of container ships waiting outside of the LA/LB port is down over 80% from this time last year so that tells me demand is down because it's not like the port got more efficient

Recession definition is 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP. We are probably in one right now and I wouldn't be shocked.

With that said, we have a tight labor market. Unemployment rate is 3.6% I believe? So unless there is a mass layoff that occurs, we will probably run into stagflation and that's where inflation will not "cool" off. Rents will continue to stay high or elevated. Also, we are in a world of globalization. If one part of the world falls, we are not immune to it. Just like how gas prices are going up here and we are complaining about $6 per gallon when Europe is probably $10+ per gallon. If gas prices remain elevated, it means inflation will not cool as everything requires gas to deliver goods to the stores. Price pressures will remain. Consumers are still spending but not at the rate as it use to. Probably has something to do with low unemployment rate. What are you going to do if groceries are up 10-15%? Not eat? Costco can't even tell me when chicken thighs will be on a scheduled basis. They're saying there will continue to be a shortage for the next 6 months. And let's not even get started about China zero covid policy and how much of an impact that can have to the entire world. Ask Elon Musk and he can tell you how that has impacted his business.

I can definitely be wrong about this, but I really don't see any event where inflation will slow down near term unless massive layoffs happen. Especially with China's covid policy and the war going on.  Though once we start seeing layoffs happen and unemployment ticking up I think things will go down and the Fed will then act accordingly to lower rates. But that isn't showing in the data yet.

Just got back from Cali. Paid $4.99 for gas at FV costco. Costco is no longer the lowest station in a few areas and Berri brothers beats them in FV now. Gas got me to the interior of AZ where I paid $3.95 tonight at Costco. (Sam's club competition gets it this low (probably same as FV). So.......... stations CAN lower prices.

When the price of oil drops, gas follows and so does things made with oil. Cali has eliminated diesel gas tax which will help every trucker forced to fill up here after loading their stuff from Cali docks.

I don't believe chicken isn't going to come down. Eggs were under a buck a dozen last week here. Chicken will follow.... it always does.

Last week pork chops were under a buck a pound here. Week or two before london broil was under $2 per pound. Beef is being slaughtered due to the drought not providing enough grain. Of course this will rebound later from smaller herds but for now beef is probably going to be on sale due to higher supply.

There were four legacy homes here for sale sitting doing nothing. Within a day or two of each other three suddenly are pending. Builder here just sold both models, one home where u can pick everything on the lot with a large lot premium, two spec homes within the last couple days. Builder offered a refrigerator and washer/dryer but didn't budge on price. I got a discount for paying cash and redfin rebate (which they are not paying any more) and paid $165K less than what they are getting now for the same options/plan (early dec pricing).

Looking like the drop in rates has moved some buyers back into the market to me. If rates continue to fall, I expect more buyers will show up and sop up the inventory.

Powell can raise all he wants but for now it's not looking like recession to me.

[irvine buyer]

While we lament about stock market losses and opine about how much Irvine home prices will drop; most Talkirvine forum members are not the people severely affected by this stagflation environment we are in.  To the bottom half this is a recession regardless of the narrative.  Look at food bank data and you'll see not only record demand but record number of new patrons (who by the way are employed).  Look at data regarding delinquent utility bills, including cellular.  Look at commentary from retailers such as Walmart about how their customer base spending has changed...lower checkout averages with less discretionary and more private label.  Look at credit card balance data.  I could go on and on.

The low unemployment numbers are misleading.  Not only is it a lagging indicator, but we have an employment economy where there is a shortage of certain workers but yet a glut of other workers who cannot find employment or need to get re-certified to regain employment.  Many in this latter group are no longer counted as seeking employment.

In the 1970's, inflation rose in the early '70's only to come back down for a couple years and then rise again into the infamous '79 to '81 period a lot of people remember.  I have no clue if this will happen again but just because prices are coming down does not mean we are in the clear.  A main cause of our current inflation (too much government spending) has not been curtailed and I believe that if our economy gets worse there will be even more government spending.  Supply chain disruptions will get worked out but the result may be a partial de-globilization of manufacturing which will have upward pressure on prices.  I predict oil prices (a big component affecting our inflation levels) will rise again as much of the western world continues its quest to eliminate fossil fuels.

[The California Court Company]

well said. please tip extra if you can and donate extra food to local food bank

[OCtoSV]

OMFG - 361 SFRs/condos/townhomes for sale in Irvine under $2M. Tick tick boom!

[USCTrojanCPA]

OMFG - 361 SFRs/condos/townhomes for sale in Irvine under $2M. Tick tick boom!

Just to give some perspective, we had 1,059 active listings at the end of July 2019 and today we have 482 active listings at the end of July 2022.  Historically inventory levels tend to peak out in July/August and start falling once we get past Labor Day.

[irvinehomeowner]

Prices declined by about double what you were claiming.  Whoever predicted a 40% decline would have been closer to the mark than you.  And of course they deserve credit for predicting the decline in advance, when almost nobody believed it was possible (not even USC), while you were making the 15% false claim after the fact.

Still haven't found the post to prove your lie?

Once again, I said that in the SFRs that *I was looking at* (3CWG homes), most were 15% with some as high as 20% but those were more undesirable. There is a whole thread that details this. I NEVER said that ALL of Irvine only dropped 15%.

And... my 20% is closer to 28% than **YOUR** 40%.

And to reiterate this is also what USC observed:

How much does Irvine's price drop during the 2008 financial crisis?

Around 25% from peak to trough with desirable SFR homes declining 15-20% and attached condos declining 30-35%. 

It is Liar Loan making false claims... as usual.

One other fallacy here which was also detailed in that thread... an XX% drop does NOT translate to an XX% discount for home buyers. Way too many variables with the major one being that other thing we discuss called timing.

[Liar Loan]

Prices declined by about double what you were claiming.  Whoever predicted a 40% decline would have been closer to the mark than you.  And of course they deserve credit for predicting the decline in advance, when almost nobody believed it was possible (not even USC), while you were making the 15% false claim after the fact.

Still haven't found the post to prove your lie?

Once again, I said that in the SFRs that *I was looking at* (3CWG homes), most were 15% with some as high as 20% but those were more undesirable. There is a whole thread that details this. I NEVER said that ALL of Irvine only dropped 15%.

And... my 20% is closer to 28% than **YOUR** 40%.

And to reiterate this is also what USC observed:

How much does Irvine's price drop during the 2008 financial crisis?

Around 25% from peak to trough with desirable SFR homes declining 15-20% and attached condos declining 30-35%. 

It is Liar Loan making false claims... as usual.

One other fallacy here which was also detailed in that thread... an XX% drop does NOT translate to an XX% discount for home buyers. Way too many variables with the major one being that other thing we discuss called timing.

You were saying 15% so often that it got to the point that others, including one of the high profile realtors here on TI, were quoting you.  You never made any attempt to correct them by saying it was only 3CWG's that you personally viewed that you were talking about.

It wasn't until I questioned your number, then busted the myth with real closed sales data, that you were forced to concede that prices fell by more than 15%.  After I busted the 15% myth, a whole host of other posters chimed in to say that in their anecdotal experience, 4bd homes in Irvine did indeed fall by around 30%.

Not a single poster took your side.

[OCtoSV]

OMFG - 361 SFRs/condos/townhomes for sale in Irvine under $2M. Tick tick boom!

Just to give some perspective, we had 1,059 active listings at the end of July 2019 and today we have 482 active listings at the end of July 2022.  Historically inventory levels tend to peak out in July/August and start falling once we get past Labor Day.

how much has the median risen since July 2019? I'm guessing a lot.

[The California Court Company]

not really following this back and forth, all I get is better be patient and buy a unicorn (like 3CWG) which will hold the value better in a downturn.   

Prices declined by about double what you were claiming.  Whoever predicted a 40% decline would have been closer to the mark than you.  And of course they deserve credit for predicting the decline in advance, when almost nobody believed it was possible (not even USC), while you were making the 15% false claim after the fact.

Still haven't found the post to prove your lie?

Once again, I said that in the SFRs that *I was looking at* (3CWG homes), most were 15% with some as high as 20% but those were more undesirable. There is a whole thread that details this. I NEVER said that ALL of Irvine only dropped 15%.

And... my 20% is closer to 28% than **YOUR** 40%.

And to reiterate this is also what USC observed:

How much does Irvine's price drop during the 2008 financial crisis?

Around 25% from peak to trough with desirable SFR homes declining 15-20% and attached condos declining 30-35%. 

It is Liar Loan making false claims... as usual.

One other fallacy here which was also detailed in that thread... an XX% drop does NOT translate to an XX% discount for home buyers. Way too many variables with the major one being that other thing we discuss called timing.

You were saying 15% so often that it got to the point that others, including one of the high profile realtors here on TI, were quoting you.  You never made any attempt to correct them by saying it was only 3CWG's that you personally viewed that you were talking about.

It wasn't until I questioned your number, then busted the myth with real closed sales data, that you were forced to concede that prices fell by more than 15%.  After I busted the 15% myth, a whole host of other posters chimed in to say that in their anecdotal experience, 4bd homes in Irvine did indeed fall by around 30%.

Not a single poster took your side.

[irvinehomeowner]

Prices declined by about double what you were claiming.  Whoever predicted a 40% decline would have been closer to the mark than you.  And of course they deserve credit for predicting the decline in advance, when almost nobody believed it was possible (not even USC), while you were making the 15% false claim after the fact.

Still haven't found the post to prove your lie?

Once again, I said that in the SFRs that *I was looking at* (3CWG homes), most were 15% with some as high as 20% but those were more undesirable. There is a whole thread that details this. I NEVER said that ALL of Irvine only dropped 15%.

And... my 20% is closer to 28% than **YOUR** 40%.

And to reiterate this is also what USC observed:

How much does Irvine's price drop during the 2008 financial crisis?

Around 25% from peak to trough with desirable SFR homes declining 15-20% and attached condos declining 30-35%. 

It is Liar Loan making false claims... as usual.

One other fallacy here which was also detailed in that thread... an XX% drop does NOT translate to an XX% discount for home buyers. Way too many variables with the major one being that other thing we discuss called timing.

You were saying 15% so often that it got to the point that others, including one of the high profile realtors here on TI, were quoting you.  You never made any attempt to correct them by saying it was only 3CWG's that you personally viewed that you were talking about.

It wasn't until I questioned your number, then busted the myth with real closed sales data, that you were forced to concede that prices fell by more than 15%.  After I busted the 15% myth, a whole host of other posters chimed in to say that in their anecdotal experience, 4bd homes in Irvine did indeed fall by around 30%.

I've always had that caveat about the homes I was looking at because I was actively shopping from 2008 on... find the post where I applied to ALL. You can't.

This is just more lies from you because you are absolutely wrong here.

And you didn't bust anything... it was meccos12 who asked for clarity on what homes I was shopping that I only saw a 15-20% drop so I pointed him to that thread.

Not a single poster took your side.

Wrong again. There were other posters who also did not observe a 40%+ drop in homes they were looking at, I even have a thread asking if anyone realized such a large discount from the 06-10 drop. And are you ignoring USC's post above that I've quoted twice now?

Sorry Liar... just like in 2018-19... you can't get anything right.