Cetara Orchard Hills The Groves Shea Homes

leect

New member
Howdy!

Looks like they have some new homes coming up by Shea in Orchard Hills. It's next to Taylor Morrison but higher on the hill.

Anyone have any info on this yet?

 

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https://www.talkirvine.com/index.php/topic,16812.msg357134.html#msg357134

Here's the floor plans:

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The last of the view lots at the Groves.  But I heard these prices will be close to what Trevi view lots started at.  Smaller too.
 
leect said:
Howdy!

Looks like they have some new homes coming up by Shea in Orchard Hills. It's next to Taylor Morrison but higher on the hill.

Anyone have any info on this yet?

I'm trying to find out same information.  Did you hear more information on release and pricing?  The Shea sales office seem to think pricing will start under $2M and opening in July 2020.
 
variable229 said:
leect said:
Howdy!

Looks like they have some new homes coming up by Shea in Orchard Hills. It's next to Taylor Morrison but higher on the hill.

Anyone have any info on this yet?

I'm trying to find out same information.  Did you hear more information on release and pricing?  The Shea sales office seem to think pricing will start under $2M and opening in July 2020.

The construction of the model homes are underway.  Late July/Early Aug release sounds like a reasonable timeline.  I will probably guess starting at mid $1.8mm to low $1.9mm.
 
eyephone said:
iacrenter said:
Introducing $2M homes in this pandemic market. Bad timing?

To some people this is nothing.

I remember USC mentioning the market above $1.5M really starts to drop off even pre pandemic. Now add in Great Depression levels of unemployment, diminished FCB activity, and poor consumer confidence.  I?m guessing a high broker coop and free upgrades right off the bat.
 
Most of the wealthy haven?t lost their jobs or wealth.  It?s those retail and fast food workers on the edge of poverty with no savings that are hardest hit.

Granted the wealthy will take advantage of this time to get some deals and build their wealth on the other side.
 
aquabliss said:
Most of the wealthy haven?t lost their jobs or wealth.  It?s those retail and fast food workers on the edge of poverty with no savings that are hardest hit.

Granted the wealthy will take advantage of this time to get some deals and build their wealth on the other side.

Not necessarily true.
 
eyephone said:
aquabliss said:
Most of the wealthy haven?t lost their jobs or wealth.  It?s those retail and fast food workers on the edge of poverty with no savings that are hardest hit.

Granted the wealthy will take advantage of this time to get some deals and build their wealth on the other side.

Not necessarily true.

Depends what kind of people buy $2M homes in Irvine. For instance, many doctors lost significant income due cancellation of elective surgery. A business owner of a car dealership, restaurant, or small hotel would also be hurting. If you were a true 1%er it wouldn?t matter, but are they the typical buyers of $2M tract homes.
 
iacrenter said:
eyephone said:
aquabliss said:
Most of the wealthy haven%u2019t lost their jobs or wealth.  It%u2019s those retail and fast food workers on the edge of poverty with no savings that are hardest hit.

Granted the wealthy will take advantage of this time to get some deals and build their wealth on the other side.

Not necessarily true.

Depends what kind of people buy $2M homes in Irvine. For instance, many doctors lost significant income due cancellation of elective surgery. A business owner of a car dealership, restaurant, or small hotel would also be hurting. If you were a true 1%er it wouldn%u2019t matter, but are they the typical buyers of $2M tract homes.

Pay cuts, hospital layoffs, small business hurting, overall spending down (business and consumer). Read the news big companies are laying off.

It is not just retail. The next ball to drop is state and local government regarding budget shortfall.
 
eyephone said:
iacrenter said:
eyephone said:
aquabliss said:
Most of the wealthy haven%u2019t lost their jobs or wealth.  It%u2019s those retail and fast food workers on the edge of poverty with no savings that are hardest hit.

Granted the wealthy will take advantage of this time to get some deals and build their wealth on the other side.

Not necessarily true.

Depends what kind of people buy $2M homes in Irvine. For instance, many doctors lost significant income due cancellation of elective surgery. A business owner of a car dealership, restaurant, or small hotel would also be hurting. If you were a true 1%er it wouldn%u2019t matter, but are they the typical buyers of $2M tract homes.

Pay cuts, hospital layoffs, small business hurting, overall spending down (business and consumer). Read the news big companies are laying off.

It is not just retail. The next ball to drop is state and local government regarding budget shortfall.

I don't know about others, but myself practicing at least from now to the end of the year with extreme cautions and defense play at all level. There is alot of FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) but in my opinion, there is much more risk of downward pressure here and short gain. Like you mention above. The key phrase I got from J-Powell with the CBS 60 minutes interview "There is no limit to our printing and digitize the dollars" meaning they can continue to buy up and give away. So ask this, will this somehow, someday, save the system when all we do is just taking handout and very little produce and little consumption. Is that sustainable? And the health issues is not going away, if anything it will jump higher / faster.

 
I was not happy with Bernanke showering the economy with money back in 2010.  I thought it was bad policy, but 10 years of crazy growth shows that it worked.  We benefited from the Keynesian printing of USD.

Now we are on the precipice of a new great depression, and the solution is yet again to print money to infinite. 
Some say the great depression would have been less severe if we had printed money to save ourselves, but it was probably not possible because USD was still tied to gold.  Perhaps krugman was right and we should print and spend our way out of this mess.

The future can suck it, we need money now.
 
I went to check out the view lots.  The highest elevation is near the street Leafy Pass.  But from the top, the view was not that great.  I think once Palermo and the iPac homes are done, you will just see rooftops.  The viewline seems a bit far out and not that great.  $2.3-2.4 for view lots for 4100-4300 sq ft seems steep to me.  It will be justifiable if the view was higher.  But who knows.
 
Here's the lot map from the city's doc.
 

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I'm hoping the pricing isn't too crazy. Not that I can afford it lol.

It's in the super rich area side of Orchard hills too.
 
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