Author Topic: Housing Analysis  (Read 321040 times)

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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #15 on: August 29, 2018, 01:42:34 PM »
Like I previously mentioned the music is slowing down.

I predict it will get colder as we move to fall and winter.

I predict we will have less daylight in the coming months.

I predict Thanksgiving will be in November.

I predict next year will be 2020.
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Offline fortune11

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #16 on: August 29, 2018, 01:44:02 PM »
Problem with the world "trouble" I have.  There is a billions and billions of private equity money waiting for this "trouble" to materialize which means it probably won't.

The thing with PE managers is they have to justify their decisions to investors.  Once the public believes the market is in a downturn, it becomes very difficult to convince jittery investors about the wisdom of catching a falling knife.

If you look at the last round of PE buying, it didn't really start until 2012.  I worked for one of the earliest funds in the REO-to-Rental space and even they were too late to the game.  All of the best deals got scooped up between 2009-2011 and it wasn't until after 2012 that PE started investing billions in the space.  By then, prices were already in a solid uptrend.

The moral of the story is PE didn't create the trend, but latched on to the already existing trend.  That's what will dictate their buy/sell actions this time around as well.

Its good that you have first hand experience here . I do know principles in the industry and what I gather is they have barely invested 20 percent of recent vintage funds (2016 onwards ) and the total undrawn capital exceeds 1 trillion now - mind you this is across a variety of vehicles not just traditional buyout PE. 

The good thing from their perspective is it is long term locked up money as opposed to daily liquidity mutual funds which are prone to falling prey to investor herd mentality both on the way up and the way down.

Offline eyephone

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #17 on: August 29, 2018, 01:45:01 PM »
Like I previously mentioned the music is slowing down.

I predict it will get colder as we move to fall and winter.

I predict we will have less daylight in the coming months.

I predict Thanksgiving will be in November.

I predict next year will be 2020.

Are you trying to clown?

I don’t have a conflict of interest. You ask a realtor questions on TI and you expect and objective answer.

Tough shi7

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #18 on: August 29, 2018, 01:49:16 PM »
Like I previously mentioned the music is slowing down.

I predict it will get colder as we move to fall and winter.

I predict we will have less daylight in the coming months.

I predict Thanksgiving will be in November.

I predict next year will be 2020.

Are you trying to clown?

I don’t have a conflict of interest. You ask a realtor questions on TI and you expect and objective answer.

Tough shi7

The last prediction was kind of clowny, obviously next year is 2024.

It's so easy to say "slowing down" at the end of summer... why don't you tell us something bold and useful... like a percentage drop that you are *predicting* and which markets it will affect.

Otherwise, you're saying nothing.
Once you go 3-car garage... your junk can never go back.
3CWG: 3-Car Wide Garage
FCB: Foreign Cash Buyer
I recommend:
www.irvinerealtorsite.com
member: Soylent Green Is People (loans/refis)

Offline Kings

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #19 on: August 29, 2018, 01:51:16 PM »
Like I previously mentioned the music is slowing down.

I predict it will get colder as we move to fall and winter.

I predict we will have less daylight in the coming months.

I predict Thanksgiving will be in November.

I predict next year will be 2020.

slow down there, nostradamus

Offline eyephone

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #20 on: August 29, 2018, 01:51:59 PM »
Like I previously mentioned the music is slowing down.

I predict it will get colder as we move to fall and winter.

I predict we will have less daylight in the coming months.

I predict Thanksgiving will be in November.

I predict next year will be 2020.

Are you trying to clown?

I don’t have a conflict of interest. You ask a realtor questions on TI and you expect and objective answer.

Tough shi7

The last prediction was kind of clowny, obviously next year is 2024.

It's so easy to say "slowing down" at the end of summer... why don't you tell us something bold and useful... like a percentage drop that you are *predicting* and which markets it will affect.

Otherwise, you're saying nothing.

Have you read the board?
People think nothing’s happening.

Offline eyephone

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #21 on: August 29, 2018, 02:05:14 PM »
Let me know if you have a counter argument or if you agree.

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #22 on: August 29, 2018, 02:16:22 PM »
Let me know if you have a counter argument or if you agree.

You haven't even presented an argument other than regurgitating someone else's articles or saying "I predict a slowdown".

Fire is hot, ice is cold.
Once you go 3-car garage... your junk can never go back.
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Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #23 on: August 29, 2018, 02:18:25 PM »
#slowdown is different than melt down. Slow down so people can catch their breath. Melt down = crashing. Crash ain’t going to happen anytime soon, if not ever will.

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #24 on: August 29, 2018, 02:23:48 PM »
But isn't #slowdown normal at this time of year?

And what "Housing Analysis" (his title) is eyephone doing?

Read his first post... what is eyephone contributing? The link? The copy/paste? He mentions that USC's data might not be objective but at least USC is giving us data and his opinion.
Once you go 3-car garage... your junk can never go back.
3CWG: 3-Car Wide Garage
FCB: Foreign Cash Buyer
I recommend:
www.irvinerealtorsite.com
member: Soylent Green Is People (loans/refis)

Offline eyephone

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #25 on: August 29, 2018, 02:27:10 PM »
Let me know if you have a counter argument or if you agree.

You haven't even presented an argument other than regurgitating someone else's articles or saying "I predict a slowdown".

Fire is hot, ice is cold.

You never posted in this thread until I posted that Warren Buffet is selling his second home at a price reduction. Is this a sign?

You can attack me, but that’s not going to solve the slowdown.

(No conflict of interest)

Offline eyephone

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #26 on: August 29, 2018, 02:28:17 PM »
Let me know if you have a counter argument or if you agree.

You haven't even presented an argument other than regurgitating someone else's articles or saying "I predict a slowdown".

Fire is hot, ice is cold.

I copied and pasted data from articles. Why recreate the wheel?

Offline eyephone

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #27 on: August 29, 2018, 02:29:10 PM »
Your the one drawing attention to this thread.

Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #28 on: August 29, 2018, 02:30:16 PM »
Let me know if you have a counter argument or if you agree.

Let’s put it this way Eyephone, you got real good and lucky when you purchased in the last down cycle, if it was in 2012. I don’t think you can replicate that luck again. Even when it slow, pricing is still high. I can’t buy my house for what I paid for it even with 20% decrease from today price.

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Housing Analysis
« Reply #29 on: August 29, 2018, 02:30:41 PM »
What does your Warren Buffet post have to do with anything?

I just posted after you said "Like I mentioned... I'm so smart... I'm the king of predictions... I'm so awesome" (well... I embellished).

Man, you and BTB have this thing with being "attacked"... this is a forum, we discuss our opinions and positions and from my viewpoint, I have no idea what your position is because it's so general and you have no detail to back it up.

The sun makes light.
Once you go 3-car garage... your junk can never go back.
3CWG: 3-Car Wide Garage
FCB: Foreign Cash Buyer
I recommend:
www.irvinerealtorsite.com
member: Soylent Green Is People (loans/refis)

 

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