Author Topic: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?  (Read 14116 times)

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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #90 on: March 12, 2018, 08:08:25 AM »
The idea of the blockchain and shared ledgers is great... what is suspect is the mining of coins and how those who got in first... or even created the first bitcoin were able to do so with less effort than today.

My spider sense also tingles when we don't really know who invented bitcoin and how much currency they have to begin with.

And like IPOs, there are so many ICOs going on... it's hard to tell what is legit or not.

I like the idea of the blockchain... just not this currency tied to it.

I did some digging on this for my own benefit and came to the conclusion that what makes the  blockchain secure is also what makes it inefficient

the so-called mathematical puzzles being solved are nothing but millions and millions of guessing games being played to get to the next hash outcome. But that onerous and laborious process  is also what makes blockchain " unhackable " for a single entity

If they were to make it more efficient to speed it up, then it is possible someone can find a way to optimize it (in other words " hack it ")  and right there the integrity of the entire blockchain collapses.

You cant have one without the other .  And this is why you have these computers wasting away power equivalent of small countries energy consumption 24 / 7. ....  it is simply not scalable without also making it open to hacking attacks .

From what I understand, the "puzzles" were easier to begin with. As people threw more processing power at them, from CPUs to GPUs and now FPGA and finally ASIC... and more people mined, the time to guess the new hash has to be recalculated so that the time to produce new coins doesn't exhaust the limit before it's due (there is supposed to be a cap of 21 million bitcoin by around 2024).

So my concern isn't the security of it, it's the question of the initial start of it and who benefited most. Almost like a Ponzi (or even MLM) where the people at the top can reap all the rewards.

While decentralized currency is ideal in that no one entity controls it, the other problem, as we have seen, is there is no system to keep volatile valuation in check. At least with stocks, value is based on the profitability and performance of a company combined with demand, but for bitcoin... it's just demand and that's scary to me. Maybe it's like futures or VIX (USC's currency) but that's also why I don't get into those things either.

What I'm more interested in is the use of blockchain technology as a database and how it can be applied in other areas.
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Offline Kings

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #91 on: March 12, 2018, 11:20:10 AM »
All aboard!

Quote
Bitcoin Price Will Hit $1 Million by 2020 Says John McAfee

How high can cryptocurrency mania go? Bitcoin bull and anti-virus software pioneer John McAfee has revised his earlier prediction with a claim that bitcoin's price could hit $1 million by the end of 2020.

On July 17, 2017, McAfee made a big claim. He predicted that 1 bitcoin will be worth $5,000 per token by the end of 2017. Bitcoin's price hit a high of $19,303.74 on December 17, 2017 and closed the year at $12,629.81.

Using the same prediction model, McAfee previously claimed that bitcoin will hit $500,000 by the end of 2020. Since BTC prices surged much faster in 2017 than he had projected, McAfee revised his claim upward to $1 million by 2020.

https://www.investopedia.com/news/mcafee-tracker-predicts-1-bitcoin1m-2020/

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #92 on: March 12, 2018, 11:31:23 AM »
All aboard!

Quote
Bitcoin Price Will Hit $1 Million by 2020 Says John McAfee

How high can cryptocurrency mania go? Bitcoin bull and anti-virus software pioneer John McAfee has revised his earlier prediction with a claim that bitcoin's price could hit $1 million by the end of 2020.

On July 17, 2017, McAfee made a big claim. He predicted that 1 bitcoin will be worth $5,000 per token by the end of 2017. Bitcoin's price hit a high of $19,303.74 on December 17, 2017 and closed the year at $12,629.81.

Using the same prediction model, McAfee previously claimed that bitcoin will hit $500,000 by the end of 2020. Since BTC prices surged much faster in 2017 than he had projected, McAfee revised his claim upward to $1 million by 2020.

https://www.investopedia.com/news/mcafee-tracker-predicts-1-bitcoin1m-2020/

He is one crazy dude.  I watched him in the Libertarian debates for president and he was definitely the comedic relief.  It doesn't surprise me at all that he is a Bitcoin enthusiast because he basically believes there should be no governments.  I think he was also wanted for murder in South America, but he claims it was all a big misunderstanding.

Offline jajji

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #93 on: March 12, 2018, 11:35:32 PM »
McAfee is known to shill a different ICO every week.

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #94 on: March 14, 2018, 10:08:28 AM »
Buy at $8.5k, sell at $11k.  Rinse, Wash, Repeat.

Now's your chance.. The greatest bubble of all time just dropped below $8,500 on news that Google will no longer allow advertising of cryptocurrencies.  There is also rumor of more Chinese regulation coming down the pipe.



Offline Liar Loan

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #95 on: March 14, 2018, 10:25:54 AM »
Bitcoin’s bubble behaviour

The hyperbolic price movements of bitcoin since its early 2009 inception have been very bubble-like in nature. When one compares bitcoin’s five-year price momentum (adjusted for inflation) against that of previous asset bubbles, bitcoin dwarfs the runners-up – the Mississippi bubble of 1720 and the Amsterdam Tulip Mania of 1637. And among more recent examples, bitcoin far surpasses the IT bubble of the 1990s and the Japan bubble of the 1980s.



Moreover, bitcoin ticks all of the boxes that we consider to be essential criteria of any asset bubble:

-“New-era” thinking. Bitcoin is perceived to be an entirely new kind of currency and a monetary innovation in the internet age.

-Overtrading. Trading volumes have increased by almost fivefold in the last five years, according to BIS data.

-Ultra-easy monetary conditions. Accommodative policy is still in place globally, despite a series of rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve.

-A lack of financial regulation. The “Wild West” bitcoin environment is only gradually being addressed by regulators around the world.

-The launch of related financial instruments. New products related to the bubbling asset class are popping up – from CBOE and CME futures contracts to the launch of “ICOs” (initial coin offerings).

-Rising leverage. Not only has private-sector leverage increased to record highs globally, but leveraged speculation in bitcoin is increasing.

-Swindles. Bitcoin has become the instrument of choice for many criminals, thanks to its ability to exist entirely outside of traditional banking channels.

-Significant overvaluation. Many other asset classes are pricey in today’s market, but bitcoin’s valuation seems to be without peer.

This brings us to a key question: what is the fair value of a bitcoin? In our view, its intrinsic value must be zero: a bitcoin is a claim on nobody – in contrast to, for instance, sovereign bonds, equities or paper money – and it does not generate any income stream. Admittedly, one could make the same argument about gold, but gold has been widely accepted by humankind as a thing of value for more than two-and-a-half thousand years – compared to less than a decade for bitcoin.

Not a currency – and not ESG-friendly

So if bitcoin is flawed enough not to be considered a proper asset class, can it at least serve the purpose of being a currency? We believe the answer is no for several reasons:

-First, given the high cost of conducting transactions in bitcoin, it could only be used for paying big-ticket items.

-Second, given bitcoin’s tremendous price volatility, it does not qualify as a numeraire – a commonly accepted benchmark used to assign value to goods and services.

-Third, considering all the arguments we have previously presented, it seems all but impossible to use bitcoin as a store of value.

https://www.allianzgi.com/en/home/insights/investment-themes-and-strategy/beyond-the-bitcoin-bubble

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #96 on: March 15, 2018, 10:56:37 AM »
Congressional hearing on cryptocurrencies devolves into bitcoin bash fest
Quote
A House Financial Services subcommittee met Wednesday in what was supposed to be an overview of the cryptocurrency landscape. The two-hour hearing raised more questions than answers, and shined a light on some Congress members' deep skepticism around digital currency.

"Cryptocurrencies are a crock," Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Calif.) said to kick off his opening remarks. "They allow a few dozen men in my district to sit in their pajamas all day and tell their wives they're going to be millionaires."

Sherman accused the cryptocurrency community of using the term ICO to "lie to the public and convey the image that is like an IPO."

"They stole the intellectual property and trademark of legitimate investing and applied it to a fixed, fraudulent gambling scheme of no social benefit," Sherman said.

Huizenga referenced a soon-to-be published study of the ICO market by MIT professor Christian Catalini, which estimates that $270 million to $317 million of the money raised by coin offerings has "likely gone to fraud or scams."

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/14/congressional-hearing-devolves-into-bitcoin-bash-fest.html?recirc=taboolainternal

Offline Kings

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #97 on: March 15, 2018, 12:25:06 PM »
The IRS is going to have a field day with crypto traders that think they can get away with making 5-6 figure sums and not giving Uncle Sam his share.

Offline eyephone

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #98 on: March 15, 2018, 12:30:47 PM »
The IRS is going to have a field day with crypto traders that think they can get away with making 5-6 figure sums and not giving Uncle Sam his share.

Just like I previously said in my previous posts regarding the crackdown.

Offline marmott

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #99 on: March 16, 2018, 12:47:12 PM »
That for example: https://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/comments/84huks/i_just_discovered_that_i_owe_the_irs_50k_that_i/

Coinbase finally released a tax tool to help with filling taxes.

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Offline Halos

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #100 on: March 16, 2018, 09:11:02 PM »
Peter Thiel, or Brad Sherman....hmm, tough pick  ;D

Good overall interview...not just about BTC


Also, I posted the lucky buying opportunity for Irvine residents $8,880...you could of sold at 12K, and made a greater return than you have in the last year in the grand casino stock market.

Could go down further...but when it goes back up, you'll be kicking yourself for not buying

Is it the biggest bubble of all time?
http://www.visualcapitalist.com/worlds-money-markets-one-visualization-2017/

« Last Edit: March 17, 2018, 12:51:50 AM by Halos »

Offline Halos

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #101 on: March 16, 2018, 09:48:25 PM »
Everyone is expecting BTC to test the 6K low again, but seems to be a lot of buyers not trying to time the bottom this time around.



In February, everyone was expecting 5K, but was bought up by a mystery buyer who went on a spending spree, scooping up 400 million more worth of BTC at 6K (you will never be able to time the bottom).

http://queenwiki.com/blog/2018/02/mystery-billionaire-whale-buys-1billion-dollars-bitcoins/

Just today, BTC was about at the death cross, with 50 MDA crossing below the 200 MDA....until another mystery buyer shot up the price.



A lot of big money in crypto, but I guess Brad Sherman believes it's all a bunch of millennials in their pajamas

Offline Halos

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #102 on: March 16, 2018, 09:59:22 PM »
Buy at $8.5k, sell at $11k.  Rinse, Wash, Repeat.

Now's your chance.. The greatest bubble of all time just dropped below $8,500 on news that Google will no longer allow advertising of cryptocurrencies.  There is also rumor of more Chinese regulation coming down the pipe.



Cryptocurrency trading has been banned in China since September 17'...which was the main conduit for laundering money out of China. Be careful what you root for fellow Irvine residents  ;)

Now you might think China hates blockchain and cryptocurrency, but the opposite is true. They are very proud of the blockchain and cryptocurrency teams innovating in their country, and even awarded Achain founder Tony Cui the top award for "Innovation and Growth in Technology" last year....which is a very big deal if you are wondering.



https://twitter.com/achainofficial?lang=en

Another of my favorite Chinese cryptocurrencies is NEO, which again is backed by the Chinese government and held up on a pedestal
https://twitter.com/neo_blockchain?lang=en

China only banned cryptocurrency trading for it's citizens (for the time being) to close down the money laundering game. Word is China is working with a number of crypto trading exchanges to allow trading in China only for it's citizens (closed door system).
« Last Edit: March 16, 2018, 11:29:22 PM by Halos »

Offline Halos

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #103 on: March 17, 2018, 03:09:07 AM »
The IRS is going to have a field day with crypto traders that think they can get away with making 5-6 figure sums and not giving Uncle Sam his share.

What if I traded on an exchange outside the US jurisdiction (Asia) and have not given up any personal information to that exchange? How would they tax that? And what if I told you the exchange is the largest in the world, and could care less about the IRS or their tax policies?

Also, the post above about a reddit trader losing money overall but thinks he has to pay taxes on 50k is wrong. Capital gains and taxes work both ways....he will be able to write off the losses (capital loss deduction)  ;D
« Last Edit: March 17, 2018, 03:33:15 AM by Halos »

Offline Kings

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #104 on: March 17, 2018, 07:08:13 AM »
The IRS is going to have a field day with crypto traders that think they can get away with making 5-6 figure sums and not giving Uncle Sam his share.

What if I traded on an exchange outside the US jurisdiction (Asia) and have not given up any personal information to that exchange? How would they tax that? And what if I told you the exchange is the largest in the world, and could care less about the IRS or their tax policies?

Also, the post above about a reddit trader losing money overall but thinks he has to pay taxes on 50k is wrong. Capital gains and taxes work both ways....he will be able to write off the losses (capital loss deduction)  ;D

I would say best of luck to you and cross your fingers that your exchange doesn't change their tune on reporting to the IRS retroactively and/or you never get audited  ;)

 

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