Author Topic: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?  (Read 20512 times)

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Offline daedalus

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #15 on: December 13, 2017, 01:12:43 AM »
The end is near.

At the gym tonight there were 2 young guys discussing bit coin.  I know they were young because they were marveling at how much bit coin has gone up recently, saying nothing has ever gone up that much so fast before.  Clearly they were not around to make and lose fortunes daytrading the likes of BRCM, JNPR, NTAP, QCOM, GBLX and, my favorite, INFY. 

They went back and forth for a little bit, debating about whether it's some kind of bubble.  They finally agreed, more or less, that it was.  Then they started discussing the best way to invest in it.  One guy pondered how far it might fall and at what price might be the best place to jump in.  The other guy replied that the best way to get in is to start now and put a small amount in at regular intervals.  First guy objects, and asks, if it's a bubble, why get in now?   Second guy replies--and this is a direct quote--"well, that's how you're supposed to invest in other things, like risky stocks." 

He actually characterized stocks as "risky" in the context of a discussion about bitcoin.  I almost dropped a bar on my head.

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Offline nosuchreality

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #16 on: December 13, 2017, 07:01:12 AM »
Nutshell, there's a max of 21 million bitcoins (currently only around 16 million) and a rather large number of people that want to move money around via that channel such that only 16 million pieces of exchange is a rather nasty bottleneck.

I hear these numbers thrown around a lot by my friends that are into Bitcoin, but currently there are 800 different crypto-currencies in "circulation" so really the number of digital "coins" that can be mined is infinite.  These are just digital sets of 1's and 0's after all. 

Bitcoin's only real advantage is being first to market, as far as I can tell.

Technically correct, but ask someone what Ethereum is and you'll get a blank stare let alone any of the others.  Frankly I won't touch any of them at this point because it seems like playing with stock back in the days of Rockfeller and Joe Kennedy before there was an SEC and regulations.  They're thinly traded and your bitcoin value upon liquidation depends on which trading platform you use.

I saw a stat for one of the exchanges that trades bitcoin, back in August when the coin split into bitcoin cash and bit coin, over half didn't deal with their accounts to get the bitcoin cash.

All that said, if it blows back to $600 it'll take the wind out, but I'm not sure it'll remove the mass of money that wants to move around without government intervention. 

Gold, silver, puka shells, pesos, dollar.  Money is only worth something if someone will agree to take it in exchange for products and services.

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #17 on: January 04, 2018, 03:23:31 PM »


Quote
Noted investor Jeremy Grantham, who called the last two major market bubbles, said bitcoin is a bubble that may crash soon.

"This is a true, crazy mini-bubble of its own I expect," Grantham, co-founder of Boston-based investment management firm GMO, said in a Wednesday letter to clients.

In the letter, Grantham also included a chart illustrating how large and how rapid the bitcoin price surge has been in the last two years compared with other historical bubbles.

"As you can see, Bitcoin dwarfs even the legendary South Sea Bubble!" he said. "Having no clear fundamental value and largely unregulated markets, coupled with a storyline conducive to delusions of grandeur, makes this more than anything we can find in the history books the very essence of a bubble."

Other well-known investors have said for months that bitcoin is in a bubble, and compared it to the tulip bulb mania or speculation in Beanie Babies. J.P. Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon called the digital currency a "fraud."

But none of the criticism has deterred bitcoin's surge so far, or prevented others from predicting further gains.

And although bitcoin has struggled in the last two weeks to stay above $15,000, prices of other cryptocurrencies have surged dramatically. The market value of all cryptocurrencies has multiplied roughly 38 times from this time last year to more than $770 billion Thursday, according to CoinMarketCap.

Former Fortress hedge fund manager Mike Novogratz has also said cryptocurrencies like bitcoin are the "biggest bubble of our lifetimes," with a lot of money to be made on the way up.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/04/investor-who-called-two-market-crashes-says-bitcoin-is-a-bubble.html
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Offline Irvinecommuter

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #18 on: January 04, 2018, 03:42:13 PM »
Fundamentally, bitcoin undermines national sovereignty.  Why would any first or second world country ever allow cryptocurrency as it would undermine their own currencies?   It is not trackable, outside of the traditional banking industry, and used by criminals. 

You would need some sort of 3rd world revolt but the stakesholders in 3rd world uses US currencies and thus would not want the change anyways.

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #19 on: January 04, 2018, 04:05:42 PM »
 8)
« Last Edit: January 05, 2018, 03:26:26 AM by Panda »
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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #20 on: January 04, 2018, 04:25:26 PM »
If I make IrvineCoin it will go bonkers. :)
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Offline morekaos

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #21 on: January 09, 2018, 07:56:07 AM »
This has every call sign of a mania.  True believers, no fundamentals, new and ingenious ways of justifying astronomical valuations, amateurs making zillions and tempting other fools into the greater fool loop.  It will last longer that people expect and the nay-sayers have to start questioning themselves...then it will collapse spectacularly!!!

uh-oh...the naysayers are starting to question their beliefs...that was fast.

Jamie Dimon says he regrets calling bitcoin a fraud

and believes in the technology behind it
J.P. Morgan Chase CEO said he regrets calling bitcoin a fraud.
"The blockchain is real," Dimon tells Fox Business.
Dimon remains concerned about how "governments are going to feel about bitcoin when it gets really big."

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/09/jamie-dimon-says-he-regrets-calling-bitcoin-a-fraud.html

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Offline Irvinecommuter

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #22 on: January 09, 2018, 09:23:37 AM »
This has every call sign of a mania.  True believers, no fundamentals, new and ingenious ways of justifying astronomical valuations, amateurs making zillions and tempting other fools into the greater fool loop.  It will last longer that people expect and the nay-sayers have to start questioning themselves...then it will collapse spectacularly!!!

uh-oh...the naysayers are starting to question their beliefs...that was fast.

Jamie Dimon says he regrets calling bitcoin a fraud

and believes in the technology behind it
J.P. Morgan Chase CEO said he regrets calling bitcoin a fraud.
"The blockchain is real," Dimon tells Fox Business.
Dimon remains concerned about how "governments are going to feel about bitcoin when it gets really big."

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/09/jamie-dimon-says-he-regrets-calling-bitcoin-a-fraud.html

Blockchain can be real...doesn't mean bitcoin or others like will be.  Nations can adopt blockchain technology.

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #23 on: January 09, 2018, 09:31:24 AM »
Bitcoin itself isn't a fraud, but the prices people are paying are built on speculation and hype.  There's no fundamental value to bitcoin or any of the other 800 currencies out there.

It used to be I only had 1-2 friends that were into crypto investing and they were true believers in the blockchain.  That was about 6 months ago.  Now I can't go anywhere without somebody talking about their bets on different currencies.  These aren't people investing based on their belief in the blockchain, but rather looking for the next lottery ticket, hoping for another 1,000% gain (Bitcoin would have to hit $150,000 for that to happen). 

It's all this dumb money that is driving prices higher right now.  It's the classic definition of a speculative bubble.  Just like '99 when people poured money into any company with a dotcom in the name, or '05 when people would pay any amount for a house because they could flip it 6 months later for a nice gain, or '11 when 'We buy gold' shops were everywhere and you couldn't go on any online forum without hearing about how we should all invest our life savings in gold coins.

This too will crash.
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Offline morekaos

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #24 on: January 09, 2018, 09:45:45 AM »
This reminds me of Enron.  It took major institutions to buy into the ideas of Enron.  Enron had a whole desk of traders who would trade weather futures to hedge agriculture and recreational companies (IE ski resorts and snow mobile manufacturers)  Today, it sounds ridiculous but it made some sense on the surface and in the end it collapsed spectacularly.  Now major banks are talking about setting up crypto trading desks...look out below!!!

Offline Irvinecommuter

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #25 on: January 09, 2018, 09:53:01 AM »
This reminds me of Enron.  It took major institutions to buy into the ideas of Enron.  Enron had a whole desk of traders who would trade weather futures to hedge agriculture and recreational companies (IE ski resorts and snow mobile manufacturers)  Today, it sounds ridiculous but it made some sense on the surface and in the end it collapsed spectacularly.  Now major banks are talking about setting up crypto trading desks...look out below!!!

But that was actually based upon actual products and needs...bitcoin is literally just made up currency with no support or basis.

Offline Soylent Green Is People

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #26 on: January 09, 2018, 10:07:09 AM »
As soon as Ralphs or Mobil Oil begins taking BitCoin/DogeCoin/Etherium it's always going to be a vaporous investment. If every day use happens, then it's an investment vehicle worth considering.

That said the crash happens either:

A) When your dopey neighbor/uncle/hairdresser says "I'm thinking about buying some bitecash"

or

B) When you have to ask the "how soon until BitCoin crashes?" question to begin with.

My .02c


Offline morekaos

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Re: How soon until Bitcoin crashes?
« Reply #27 on: January 09, 2018, 11:18:39 AM »
As soon as Ralphs or Mobil Oil begins taking BitCoin/DogeCoin/Etherium it's always going to be a vaporous investment. If every day use happens, then it's an investment vehicle worth considering.

That said the crash happens either:

A) When your dopey neighbor/uncle/hairdresser says "I'm thinking about buying some bitecash"

or

B) When you have to ask the "how soon until BitCoin crashes?" question to begin with.

My .02c



Than today is the day because I check both those boxes.

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Offline Irvinecommuter

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