Housing Analysis
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irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
OCtoSV said:
FED has no credibility, they've lost all of it, until they start acting, its all talk. It been that way for 13 years. So now they gonna start at all time high debts. Very believeable. Why so late? Hmmm, not believeable.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
zubs said:
Ask LL... he's the self-proclaimed expert.
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
zubs said:
PIPE DREAM....The cost of living will stay high, standard of living will go lower. WE the "FED", want high inflation to inflate away the debts of our sins.....
Sorry American for the real truth...
Liar Loan
Well-known member
irvinehomeowner said:
I don't know how to answer Zubs question, but home prices on a nationwide basis are between 30-40% overvalued depending on the valuation metric you want to use. My current feeling is this downturn will be a combination of the 80's and 90's downturns.
It will resemble the 80's in the sense that inflation will be unusually high and help bridge the gap between where prices are now and where they should be based on fundamentals, as the price of everything rises while home prices stall.
It will also resemble the 90's with around five years of stagnation in home prices and multiple single digit price drops along the way until we reach a cumulative 10-20% decline. Different areas might drop more depending on how far out of whack they are based on local incomes, rents, and construction costs.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Liar Loan said:
I see you've wisely backed away from your "Irvine Pain" wishes... err... predictions.
The problem in Irvine is even a 20% decline is still expensive.
$1m+ homes trading for $800k still seems pricey... it's crazy.
Liar Loan
Well-known member
irvinehomeowner said:
When I first pointed out that Irvine was slowing in 2018 it was unthinkable to you, and many others here, that Irvine prices could ever fall again. In fact, you were still pushing the myth that Irvine had only declined 15% during the GFC.
Now here we are readily accepting the fact that Irvine might drop 20% this cycle. So despite the constant criticism of my posts, I've been successful in persuading you that Irvine is quite possibly in for some real pain.
Please don't try to act like losing $200k+ is no big deal. Many homes in Irvine cost a lot more than $1M and a 20% decline would be even more painful for them.
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
Prices will not correct 30-40% because the replacement cost to build a home have already adjusted and won't go down going forward. What will probably happen is that you'll see prices be flattish (up/down a few %) for several years to let all the gains be digested. Similar thing happened after the late 2012 to late 2013 25% price run up. One of the big drivers that will keep prices crashing (barring any big black swan events) is the fact that housing was under built since the Great Recession so now there is a housing shortage and we see that in the frustratingly low inventory levels.
It's nice to see TI member who tend to be bullish add in the additional caveat "barring any big black swan events" in their takes.
I remember prior to COVID, whenever bears mentioned the great recession of 08, TI bulls would come out and dismiss it as "once in a life time event"
High property tax % on these newly built homes typically don't enter people's mind much in a raging bull market.
But now we are likely to be in a flat / moderately down price trend due to stagflation, it's probably going to be a lot less palatable.
A moderate decline of 10% price over 10 year means you'll still be burning 2-3% prop tax on today's market price point while losing 1% value yearly
I remember prior to COVID, whenever bears mentioned the great recession of 08, TI bulls would come out and dismiss it as "once in a life time event"
High property tax % on these newly built homes typically don't enter people's mind much in a raging bull market.
But now we are likely to be in a flat / moderately down price trend due to stagflation, it's probably going to be a lot less palatable.
A moderate decline of 10% price over 10 year means you'll still be burning 2-3% prop tax on today's market price point while losing 1% value yearly
Liar Loan
Well-known member
USCTrojanCPA said:
I believe this narrative was much more true for 2010-2020 than it will be for 2020-2030. The number of new homes for sale is the highest since 1979, excluding the mid-00's bubble. (See the chart below.) Given the population increases since the 1970's, we are at healthy levels of new home construction once again.
On the demand side, there was a demographic wave of millenials reaching prime home buying age, but that is going to flatten out in the next 1-2 years and stay flattened out for the rest of the decade, meanwhile Boomers are declining in numbers by an increasing amount each year.
There is going to be a triple whammy of supply hitting the market during the next 5-10 years:
-The most new homes under construction since 1973 (apartments and houses)
-Boomers selling due to ill health or death
-Lower household formation due to the lower marriage and birthrates of the past 14 years (i.e. less demand for apartments and starter homes)
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Liar Loan said:
You remind me of Aethewold from The Last Kingdom... double speak, passive/aggressive and straight out lying.
LIE #1
No one EVER said Irvine prices would not fall in 2018... what we did say is there would NOT be SIGNIFICANT drops (or what you called PAIN) and there was not. There is even a poll as proof... most responses were flattish or small decline.
LIE #2
What I did say about the 2006+ decline was that the homes **I** was specifically looking for (newer 3CWG homes) didn't drop more than 15%-20%. You (and many others) had said that **overall**, Irvine would drop 40% in that timeline... which was not the case.
LIE #3
And I did not say I was accepting that Irvine will drop 20% this cycle... what I am saying that even if it does, prices are still expensive because YOU couldn't predict how much Irvine prices would go UP since 2018.
Liar Liar Loan is such an appropriate name for you.
CalBears96
Well-known member
I see that Liar Liar has failed math.
Let say that there's a 20% drop this cycle. That's from the current peak, which is 60% gain from 2018. So where is that PAIN that those who bought in 2018 are going to feel when they'll still be up like 25-30%?
Let say that there's a 20% drop this cycle. That's from the current peak, which is 60% gain from 2018. So where is that PAIN that those who bought in 2018 are going to feel when they'll still be up like 25-30%?
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
Liar Loan said:USCTrojanCPA said:
I believe this narrative was much more true for 2010-2020 than it will be for 2020-2030. The number of new homes for sale is the highest since 1979, excluding the mid-00's bubble. (See the chart below.) Given the population increases since the 1970's, we are at healthy levels of new home construction once again.
On the demand side, there was a demographic wave of millenials reaching prime home buying age, but that is going to flatten out in the next 1-2 years and stay flattened out for the rest of the decade, meanwhile Boomers are declining in numbers by an increasing amount each year.
There is going to be a triple whammy of supply hitting the market during the next 5-10 years:
-The most new homes under construction since 1973 (apartments and houses)
-Boomers selling due to ill health or death
-Lower household formation due to the lower marriage and birthrates of the past 14 years (i.e. less demand for apartments and starter homes)
If 20 % drop in Irvine, double that 40% in Garbage Grove where you from.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Liar Loan said:
As is your duplicity and obfuscation of facts.
It's sad how far you've fallen... and you're trying to make up for it in volume of posts rather than recognition of your mistakes.
Did you find those posts you keep claiming backed up your assertions?
Maybe you need to resurrect meccos12 or IndieDev to help you out here.
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
Liar Loan said:
I dunno about fear, for me i would love Black Friday sale, wouldn?t you. But shelters is not like stocks or merchandises. You have 3 choices either homeless, rent or own.
Homeless-any time you can attain this.
Rent-very expensive in good schools district, or much cheaper in Garbage Grove where you are.
Own - Irvine can?t even find a home to buy even with full offer. Sellers laugh at your face. Expect to pay 200,000 or more in bidding war.
In Garbage grove, make sure you have new tires when you plan to live there, as potholes in every other street and the homeless call home.
sleepy5136
Well-known member
Isn?t a 20% drop only going back to 2021 prices? In that case, what?s there to be worried about?
CalBears96
Well-known member
sleepy5136 said:
That's what I'm talking about.