Housing Analysis

[irvinebullhousing]

I am really sympathetic to home buyers today. You have still rising price, rising rates, and a fierce bid up buyers. Its a real fight out there. The imbalance is never been higher. The only thing that can put more days of homes on the active inventory is higher rate. Rate need to go much higher to encourage cool things off. This is just to calm things down. With demographics data at its best than it has ever been for Socal and Irvine according to Housingwire, and higher mortgage rate will provide a much need inventory, rather than gone within days.

Do people go here to get advise to buy a house? If they are, then they are not ready to buy. I highly doubt people take our talk here into consideration when purchas a home into their decsion of pulling the trigger.

 

[CalBears96]

I am really sympathetic to home buyers today. You have still rising price, rising rates, and a fierce bid up buyers. Its a real fight out there. The imbalance is never been higher. The only thing that can put more days of homes on the active inventory is higher rate. Rate need to go much higher to encourage cool things off. This is just to calm things down. With demographics data at its best than it has ever been for Socal and Irvine according to Housingwire, and higher mortgage rate will provide a much need inventory, rather than gone within days.

Do people go here to get advise to buy a house? If they are, then they are not ready to buy. I highly doubt people take our talk here into consideration when purchas a home into their decsion of pulling the trigger.

Yes. Fact is, if I didn't get my house back in December, I wouldn't be able to afford to buy one right now. Fortunately, we were in the front of both Bluffs and Highland waitlist that we would have bought a smaller lot Highland 1 had we not got a purchase opportunity for Bluffs 2.

As I mentioned in another topic, base price for Bluffs 2 had gone up $220k since I bought. When I bought, base price was $1.48M and the last Bluffs 2 released (and already sold) was $1.7M.

 

[Liar Loan]

I'm sure we've all heard about the "demographic wave" fueling the surge in home buying.  Here are Census population estimates for last year.

The total US population only grew by 393k (+0.1%) and the prime homebuying age of 25-34 actually decreased by -188k (-0.4%)!!

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/04/lawler-more-on-demographics.html

 

[Ready2Downsize]

I'm sure we've all heard about the "demographic wave" fueling the surge in home buying.  Here are Census population estimates for last year.

The total US population only grew by 393k (+0.1%) and the prime homebuying age of 25-34 actually decreased by -188k (-0.4%)!!

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/04/lawler-more-on-demographics.html

Depends on where u live! Not true by any means where I am going.

Btw......... since u love links, here is one with an interactive chart for ya:
https://fortune.com/2022/04/27/how-...line-in-every-major-housing-market-corelogic/

Wonder what the odds (according to core logic) of the OC seeing prices go down in a year are?

My new area is very low.

 

[Liar Loan]

Wonder what the odds (according to core logic) of the OC seeing prices go down in a year are?

My new area is very low.

The odds in one year probably are low.  It takes time for a housing downturn to form.  A period of lower gains, followed by a period of 0% gains, follow by a period of slight declines, before a housing downturn really gets under way.

The real question is where will overvalued markets be in five years? 

From the link:

CoreLogic says 65% of U.S. regional housing markets are "overvalued." That includes every major market in states like Arizona, Florida, and Texas.

 

[Ready2Downsize]

OH! FIVE years from now. In the meantime, what should I do? I bought that spec home with upgrades and the builder is selling the same thing for another 10% since I bought it and every phase is snapped right up. They just raised prices another 3% this month (usual increase).

Walk thru is tomorrow so I should really know what to do with it. Live under a bridge for five years and hope I can get it for the spec price again after it keeps going up since there are lots of newcomers for the JOBS that are created there?

 

[usctrojancpa]

OH! FIVE years from now. In the meantime, what should I do? I bought that spec home with upgrades and the builder is selling the same thing for another 10% since I bought it and every phase is snapped right up. They just raised prices another 3% this month (usual increase).

Walk thru is tomorrow so I should really know what to do with it. Live under a bridge for five years and hope I can get it for the spec price again after it keeps going up since there are lots of newcomers for the JOBS that are created there?

No, not live under a bridge.  Go rent for 5 years and wait patiently for prices to go down before pulling the trigger.

 

[Ready2Downsize]

OH! FIVE years from now. In the meantime, what should I do? I bought that spec home with upgrades and the builder is selling the same thing for another 10% since I bought it and every phase is snapped right up. They just raised prices another 3% this month (usual increase).

Walk thru is tomorrow so I should really know what to do with it. Live under a bridge for five years and hope I can get it for the spec price again after it keeps going up since there are lots of newcomers for the JOBS that are created there?

No, not live under a bridge.  Go rent for 5 years and wait patiently for prices to go down before pulling the trigger.

I was GOING to rent while my house was built but it was cheaper to buy a place than rent even in December 2021 so I decided to just buy a place. Renting for five years where I'm going would really be a poor decision. Five years of rent at current rates would be 26% of the price of the house. Besides the mortgage there is little overhead. 2-3K at most per year in property taxes plus hoa and insurance.

I'm not a rent kind of girl anyway.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

I am really sympathetic to home buyers today. You have still rising price, rising rates, and a fierce bid up buyers. Its a real fight out there. The imbalance is never been higher. The only thing that can put more days of homes on the active inventory is higher rate. Rate need to go much higher to encourage cool things off. This is just to calm things down. With demographics data at its best than it has ever been for Socal and Irvine according to Housingwire, and higher mortgage rate will provide a much need inventory, rather than gone within days.

Do people go here to get advise to buy a house? If they are, then they are not ready to buy. I highly doubt people take our talk here into consideration when purchase a home into their decision of pulling the trigger.

Yes. Fact is, if I didn't get my house back in December, I wouldn't be able to afford to buy one right now. Fortunately, we were in the front of both Bluffs and Highland waitlist that we would have bought a smaller lot Highland 1 had we not got a purchase opportunity for Bluffs 2.

As I mentioned in another topic, base price for Bluffs 2 had gone up $220k since I bought. When I bought, base price was $1.48M and the last Bluffs 2 released (and already sold) was $1.7M.

The buyers today are financially responsible and extremely savvy with their money. They are typical move up buyers like you. First time buyers are SOL, its not a fair game. So this teaches frugality and living within your mean goes a long way. Perhaps there is some goods comes out of the years of living freely and carefree. To be able to buy, its almost like you have to be a perfect A++ profile and financially A+++, congrats to all the recent homeowners.

 

[Liar Loan]

OH! FIVE years from now. In the meantime, what should I do? I bought that spec home with upgrades and the builder is selling the same thing for another 10% since I bought it and every phase is snapped right up. They just raised prices another 3% this month (usual increase).

Walk thru is tomorrow so I should really know what to do with it. Live under a bridge for five years and hope I can get it for the spec price again after it keeps going up since there are lots of newcomers for the JOBS that are created there?

No, not live under a bridge.  Go rent for 5 years and wait patiently for prices to go down before pulling the trigger.

I was GOING to rent while my house was built but it was cheaper to buy a place than rent even in December 2021 so I decided to just buy a place. Renting for five years where I'm going would really be a poor decision. Five years of rent at current rates would be 26% of the price of the house. Besides the mortgage there is little overhead. 2-3K at most per year in property taxes plus hoa and insurance.

I'm not a rent kind of girl anyway.

Maybe I missed it in a previous thread, but why not stay living in your current Tustin home while waiting for the Arizona build to complete?  Levering up to a third home right now seems particularly suicidal.

On a relative basis, Tustin should hold up better than Arizona in the event of a downturn.

 

[Liar Loan]

Take note IHO - Here's a successful guy saying that "timing matters".  He doesn't parrot the realtor line that anytime is a great time to buy.

Investor Who Called Housing Top and Bottom Says It's Time to Sell

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor. 

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.

U.S. housing prices have more than doubled in the past decade and the house Kiesel bought for $2.9 million in 2012 now has an estimated value of $5.5 million, according to Redfin Corp.

He considers his home as an investment, refusing to form an emotional attachment to his property.

?It?s only a good investment if you buy it the right time,? he said. ?If I were to buy a house today, I would probably get max 2% return on it. And I can find other things I can make money on other than a house.?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...o-called-housing-top-and-trough-turns-bearish

 

[sleepy5136]

I am really sympathetic to home buyers today. You have still rising price, rising rates, and a fierce bid up buyers. Its a real fight out there. The imbalance is never been higher. The only thing that can put more days of homes on the active inventory is higher rate. Rate need to go much higher to encourage cool things off. This is just to calm things down. With demographics data at its best than it has ever been for Socal and Irvine according to Housingwire, and higher mortgage rate will provide a much need inventory, rather than gone within days.

Do people go here to get advise to buy a house? If they are, then they are not ready to buy. I highly doubt people take our talk here into consideration when purchase a home into their decision of pulling the trigger.

Yes. Fact is, if I didn't get my house back in December, I wouldn't be able to afford to buy one right now. Fortunately, we were in the front of both Bluffs and Highland waitlist that we would have bought a smaller lot Highland 1 had we not got a purchase opportunity for Bluffs 2.

As I mentioned in another topic, base price for Bluffs 2 had gone up $220k since I bought. When I bought, base price was $1.48M and the last Bluffs 2 released (and already sold) was $1.7M.

The buyers today are financially responsible and extremely savvy with their money. They are typical move up buyers like you. First time buyers are SOL, its not a fair game. So this teaches frugality and living within your mean goes a long way. Perhaps there is some goods comes out of the years of living freely and carefree. To be able to buy, its almost like you have to be a perfect A++ profile and financially A+++, congrats to all the recent homeowners.

not when you have a ton of FTHB having mommy/daddy $$

 

[hurijo]

I haven't been following all the threads here, but I just heard from a friend that a new development (Belmont in Cypress) is going a "best offer" route... for a new development! Have you guys heard of this? This is news to me.

 

[CalBears96]

I haven't been following all the threads here, but I just heard from a friend that a new development (Belmont in Cypress) is going a "best offer" route... for a new development! Have you guys heard of this? This is news to me.

This has been going on in several communities: Palermo at Orchard Hills (since September or October 2021?), The Oaks at Portola Hills (since October 2021), and recently Toll Brothers' The Meadows in Lake Forest.

 

[Liar Loan]

Time for a history lesson....

According to Robert Shiller's data below, home prices never used to go up on a nationwide basis.  Sure some local housing markets had inflation-beating appreciation, like SoCal and NYC, but nationwide, homes did not go up in value.  You could buy a random house in most places in the 1890's and resell it 100 years later, in the 1990's, and your capital gains would be nothing, adjusted for inflation.

In the 2000's that all changed, with nationwide home prices suddenly skyrocketing in the early 2000's by around 75% before abruptly crashing back to just above the long term median, as represented by the dotted orange line.  (I think home prices would have touched the long term median or perhaps overshot without extensive Fed intervention in the mortgage market, i.e. TARP, QE Infinity, buying crap mortgages from Bear Sterns, etc.)

Now here we are once again, with nationwide home prices that have skyrocketed to levels not seen since the the mid-00's housing bubble, on an inflation-adjusted basis.  There is absolutely no precedent for this price level to hold!  You can see that every prior housing cycle has reverted to the median (or close to it in the case of the mid-00's).  This time will be no different!!

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Hehe... LL spamming all over about rising rates and doubling down on his previous incorrect calls.

We all know that this can't keep going... but I guess you want to get credit for this time?

 

[Liar Loan]

Hehe... LL spamming all over about rising rates and doubling down on his previous incorrect calls.

We all know that this can't keep going... but I guess you want to get credit for this time?

It's easy for you to laugh.  You got yours, so who cares if others experience pain?

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Hehe... LL spamming all over about rising rates and doubling down on his previous incorrect calls.

We all know that this can't keep going... but I guess you want to get credit for this time?

It's easy for you to laugh.  You got yours, so who cares if others experience pain?

There you go changing your definition of "pain" again.

Didn't you say the "pain" Irvine homeowners would be experiencing would be the "significant" drop in prices?

Where was this concern a few years ago when you should have been telling first time homebuyers to purchase then so they wouldn't be experiencing your latest version of "pain" now? Oh wait... that was me who was telling people that they should buy when they can afford it because no one knows what's going to happen to prices with 100% certainty.

YOU were the guy who was telling everyone to wait because prices were going to drop... so again... YOU are the cause of their pain... shouldn't YOU be ashamed of yourself?

Yes... it's easy to laugh... at your ever-changing narrative.

 

[CalBears96]

Hehe... LL spamming all over about rising rates and doubling down on his previous incorrect calls.

We all know that this can't keep going... but I guess you want to get credit for this time?

It's easy for you to laugh.  You got yours, so who cares if others experience pain?

There you go changing your definition of "pain" again.

Didn't you say the "pain" Irvine homeowners would be experiencing would be the "significant" drop in prices?

Where was this concern a few years ago when you should have been telling first time homebuyers to purchase then so they wouldn't be experiencing your latest version of "pain" now? Oh wait... that was me who was telling people that they should buy when they can afford it because no one knows what's going to happen to prices with 100% certainty.

YOU were the guy who was telling everyone to wait because prices were going to drop... so again... YOU are the cause of their pain... shouldn't YOU be ashamed of yourself?

Yes... it's easy to laugh... at your ever-changing narrative.

I wonder how many times LL needs to move the goal post. "Who cares if others experience pain?" Really, dude? The ones "experience pain" are the ones who bought in 2018 and have a 60% GAIN now. GAIN, not fucking PAIN. Do you know how to spell? You are truly pathetic.

 

[zubs]

When real estate crashes, I'm sure the people who bought in 2018 when LL said not to buy....will be just fine.
In 2018 we already had a 6 year run of appreciation.  It was easy to forecast a crash....

Now in 2022, we are up even more....who are the brave souls who are buying in todays market?
Probably the ones hiding their cash from inflation. 


The pandemic caused so much money printing.
Perhaps we will go back to 2019 prices as the punchbowl is taken away.
But I doubt Jerome will let housing crash further than that.