Woodbury East Opening July 11, 2009

[quote author="socalhousingbubble" date=1242435678]Sounds like a good time to dust off an old blog posting and reflect on the then and now.



<a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/the-supply-side-postponements-and-pent-up-supply/">http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/the-supply-side-postponements-and-pent-up-supply/</a>



SCHB</blockquote>
What a great post! Would be great to have an update with pics. I miss the old IHB with multiple bloggers.
 
[quote author="bkshopr" date=1242437431]



The only way that I can see the benchmark pricing not influencing existing resales is no consumer demand for new homes and thus no validation of benchmark prices. No new home sales and therefore no comps to interrupt the declining price momentum.



</blockquote>


BK, it sounds like you think once some new sales start happening again, they will pull up the prices of resales. I am interpreting this correctly?





SCHB
 
[quote author="socalhousingbubble" date=1242449639][quote author="bkshopr" date=1242437431]



The only way that I can see the benchmark pricing not influencing existing resales is no consumer demand for new homes and thus no validation of benchmark prices. No new home sales and therefore no comps to interrupt the declining price momentum.



</blockquote>


BK, it sounds like you think once some new sales start happening again, they will pull up the prices of resales. I am interpreting this correctly?





SCHB</blockquote>


Yes, in theory when shoppers buy the new homes and that validate the benchmark prices. Home sellers living close to the new homes then would adjust their asking price and reference the 10% saving for buying a slightly used home.



If we want to see prices come down then we must not buy new homes at benchmark prices.



Your post indicated previous moth balled projects is a good one and if the consumers continue to ignore buying then Woodbury East someday would be like Floral Park where there are no two houses alike!
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1242518619]Why is the HOA in Woodbury East higher than that of Woodbury?</blockquote>
hyen10?
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1242518619]Why is the HOA in Woodbury East higher than that of Woodbury?</blockquote>


They needed additional $$ to pay for the four letters after Woodbury. Try adding 'East' on all those signs and paperwork--the extra ink cartridges just kill you. ;-)
 
I live in Woodbury and my wife and I go on walks a lot around the square. We walked through the Woodbury East area a couple weeks ago. It was on a Sunday and no one was around. Looks like there 2 groups of models ready to open. The first WLH that was opened some time back just needs to be dusted off. The second one is detatched condos with groups of 6-8 units where all the front doors face inside to a common area. You can see the tops of these from driving on Sand Canyon (over the wall). Reminded me a lot of Cortile in Woodbury.
 
[quote author="Aqua Bliss" date=1242627658]I live in Woodbury and my wife and I go on walks a lot around the square. We walked through the Woodbury East area a couple weeks ago. It was on a Sunday and no one was around. Looks like there 2 groups of models ready to open. The first WLH that was opened some time back just needs to be dusted off. The second one is detatched condos with groups of 6-8 units where all the front doors face inside to a common area. You can see the tops of these from driving on Sand Canyon (over the wall). Reminded me a lot of Cortile in Woodbury.</blockquote>


Yeah, those two products are on hold. I give it another year or two before they can reopen.
 
[quote author="Shamu" date=1242782105]Does anybody know how much is the mello roos?</blockquote>


Welcome Shamu.



Here is a <a href="http://tax.ocgov.com/tcweb/search_page.asp">link from the OC County Treasurer office</a> you can lookup the Mello Roos and taxes on OC properties.



You might want to use the search function at the top of the screen to see other threads on mello roos. Many of the answers to common questions have been discussed on the forum several times in the past. Enjoy.



<em>"Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime."

--Chinese Proverb</em>
 
According to Lansner these are selling <a href="http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2009/05/19/hmmn-new-townhomes-for-under-400000/22707/">in the high $300,000's.</a>
 
[quote author="24inIrvine" date=1242862354]I'm guessing thats for just plan A.



So lets say 390,000 for 1180 sq. ft......330 $/sq. ft. Pretty close to BK's number</blockquote>


My guess of benchmark pricing is what makes it worthwhile for Bren to consider building homes again. Anything less he would just let the land sit.



I am not saying that this is the benchmark prices consumers should accept for a new home. Consumers wanting a new home will have no choice due to TIC's monopoly.



Voc and Ladera are the alternatives. Toxic land and bad school district pretty much eliminate TIC's competitions. For those who are willing to risk living on toxic land will still face impact enrollment to existing Irvine schools. IUSD's politic is to limit expansion along the Jamboree corridor and promote new schools in the Northern Sphere (NSP) quadrant of Irvine. NSP is the area of Woodbury, PS, Stonegate, Woodbury East, and etc.



It is all strategy! It is really important to support your political candidates.
 
[quote author="IACRenter" date=1242798238][quote author="Shamu" date=1242782105]Does anybody know how much is the mello roos?</blockquote>


Welcome Shamu.



Here is a <a href="http://tax.ocgov.com/tcweb/search_page.asp">link from the OC County Treasurer office</a> you can lookup the Mello Roos and taxes on OC properties.



You might want to use the search function at the top of the screen to see other threads on mello roos. Many of the answers to common questions have been discussed on the forum several times in the past. Enjoy.



<em>"Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime."

--Chinese Proverb</em></blockquote>


Thank You IAC. I should have known better =)...
 
[quote author="bkshopr" date=1242865889]It is all strategy! It is really important to support your political candidates.</blockquote>


It is even better to have the mayor (or sibling) live in your tract.
 
[quote author="bkshopr" date=1242865889]

My guess of benchmark pricing is what makes it worthwhile for Bren to consider building homes again. Anything less he would just let the land sit.

</blockquote>


Why? The Irvine Company was more than happy to sell land at a fraction of todays value pre-bubble. You think they are stubborn-WTF-price-demanding like some of the individual owners that IR profiles? I think they are more rational than that.
 
[quote author="bigmoneysalsa" date=1242889204][quote author="bkshopr" date=1242865889]

My guess of benchmark pricing is what makes it worthwhile for Bren to consider building homes again. Anything less he would just let the land sit.

</blockquote>


Why? The Irvine Company was more than happy to sell land at a fraction of todays value pre-bubble. You think they are stubborn-WTF-price-demanding like some of the individual owners that IR profiles? I think they are more rational than that.</blockquote>


The Irvine company is drinking the kool-aid. I will enjoy this train wreck. And even if IC starts dropping prices to keep selling it will bring on another world of knife catchers that will walk from the homes. So another ghost town like Portola springs, delicious.
 
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