Woodbury East Opening July 11, 2009

H

High Gravity_IHB

New member
5/14/09 email from TIC:





Come say hello to Woodbury East, the newest of the Villages of Irvine. Register today and explore our website to see what a big difference this new address can make in your life. All the right things come together in this incredibly convenient place. The scope of Woodbury East is intimate - just 500 homes - but the rewards are huge. It?s social, practical, convenient, active, smart and - best of all, offers the kind of value that makes sense for you today and tomorrow.

Walking close to Woodbury Town Center

Award-winning Irvine schools nearby

Village amenities just a short walk from home



Mark your calendar to visit Woodbury East! You can learn more about this special place online today. The Palm Club and the village parks will offer plenty of enjoyment. Consider them your invitation to have more fun around home. Your next step is the most important: Register for updates on the July Grand Opening of Woodbury East. We?ll be glad to keep you informed.



<a href="http://www.villagesofirvine.com/Villages-And-Residences/Woodbury-East-Overview.aspx?type=neighborhood&Id=41">Woodbury East website</a>
 
Looks like they are just going to build the townhomes/condos. Truthfully, they should do well *IF* they are priced right. IE 2001 prices....300's.
 
Do you remember the triplex that I mentioned earlier and the bag of chip theory? The website is a triplex product.
 
[quote author="PadreBrian" date=1242355416]Looks like they are just going to build the townhomes/condos. Truthfully, they should do well *IF* they are priced right. IE 2001 prices....300's.</blockquote>


Prices are going up in Irvine of late and they are nowhere near 2001 levels. We'll probably be lucky to see 2003 prices around here. People will probably gobble these places up.



I'd guess the largest plan (1500sf 3/2.5) will be priced in the low $500K range.
 
[quote author="bkshopr" date=1242363151]Do you remember the triplex that I mentioned earlier and the bag of chip theory? The website is a triplex product.</blockquote>


I also remember your "value village during downturn" theory. Looks like that prediction is coming right on schedule. And I agree with IPO that there will be lines around the models on opening day if these are priced starting in the mid-$4's or so.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1242365281][quote author="PadreBrian" date=1242355416]Looks like they are just going to build the townhomes/condos. Truthfully, they should do well *IF* they are priced right. IE 2001 prices....300's.</blockquote>


Prices are going up in Irvine of late and they are nowhere near 2001 levels. We'll probably be lucky to see 2003 prices around here. People will probably gobble these places up.



I'd guess the largest plan (1500sf 3/2.5) will be priced in the low $500K range.</blockquote>


I tend to agree. That would be on par with what similar existing Woodbury product is reselling for - like <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/155-Sanctuary-92620/home/7211043">155 Sanctuary</a> and <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/49-Regal-92620/home/7214635">49 Regal</a>. Woodbury would have a premium over Woodbury East as you don't have to cross any major roads to get to the Town Center shops but Woodbury East would have the newness premium to offset this.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1242365281]I'd guess the largest plan (1500sf 3/2.5) will be priced in the low $500K range.</blockquote>
But that's only $333/sft. Unless there's that BagOChips math I'm not accounting for and it translates into $375/sft.



Either way... that still seems pretty expensive. And to think in 1999 I thought 1900sft SFRs that were going for $300k+ was high.



EDIT: A decimal point turns dreams into reality!
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1242366576][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1242365281]I'd guess the largest plan (1500sf 3/2.5) will be priced in the low $500K range.</blockquote>
But that's only $3.33/sft. Unless there's that BagOChips math I'm not accounting for and it translates into $3.75/sft.



Either way... that still seems pretty expensive. And to think in 1999 I thought 1900sft SFRs that were going for $300k+ was high.</blockquote>


$525,000 / 1500sf = $350.00 per sf



$3.33 per sf would put one of those condos at $5,000...
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1242367807][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1242366576][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1242365281]I'd guess the largest plan (1500sf 3/2.5) will be priced in the low $500K range.</blockquote>
But that's only $3.33/sft. Unless there's that BagOChips math I'm not accounting for and it translates into $3.75/sft.



Either way... that still seems pretty expensive. And to think in 1999 I thought 1900sft SFRs that were going for $300k+ was high.</blockquote>


$525,000 / 1500sf = $350.00 per sf



$3.33 per sf would put one of those condos at $5,000...</blockquote>
Hehe... one can dream can't he? Fixing now...
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1242366576][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1242365281]I'd guess the largest plan (1500sf 3/2.5) will be priced in the low $500K range.</blockquote>
But that's only $3.33/sft. Unless there's that BagOChips math I'm not accounting for and it translates into $3.75/sft.



Either way... that still seems pretty expensive. And to think in 1999 I thought 1900sft SFRs that were going for $300k+ was high.</blockquote>


$375/sf for detached home and for attached you would subtract 10% for the detached premium.



375x90%=$337.5/sf



Hm, I think Bren is monitoring this site very closely?



He may someday build you a firestation on one spare lot.
 
[quote author="bkshopr" date=1242368261][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1242366576][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1242365281]I'd guess the largest plan (1500sf 3/2.5) will be priced in the low $500K range.</blockquote>
But that's only $3.33/sft. Unless there's that BagOChips math I'm not accounting for and it translates into $3.75/sft.



Either way... that still seems pretty expensive. And to think in 1999 I thought 1900sft SFRs that were going for $300k+ was high.</blockquote>


$375/sf for detached home and for attached you would subtract 10% for the detached premium.



375x90%=$337.5/sf



Hm, I think Bren is monitoring this site very closely?



He may someday build you a firestation on one spare lot.</blockquote>
Ahhh... $375 is for detached.



I can see clearly now the rain is gone...



(as long as the firestation has a wide driveway... I'll take it)
 
[quote author="bkshopr" date=1242368261][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1242366576][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1242365281]I'd guess the largest plan (1500sf 3/2.5) will be priced in the low $500K range.</blockquote>
But that's only $3.33/sft. Unless there's that BagOChips math I'm not accounting for and it translates into $3.75/sft.



Either way... that still seems pretty expensive. And to think in 1999 I thought 1900sft SFRs that were going for $300k+ was high.</blockquote>


$375/sf for detached home and for attached you would subtract 10% for the detached premium.



375x90%=$337.5/sf



Hm, I think Bren is monitoring this site very closely?



He may someday build you a firestation on one spare lot.</blockquote>
I think Bren is already on the boards...he goes by asianinvasion and tenmagnet. haha
 
[quote author="NewToOC" date=1242366282]

I tend to agree. That would be on par with what similar existing Woodbury product is reselling for - like <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/155-Sanctuary-92620/home/7211043">155 Sanctuary</a> and <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/49-Regal-92620/home/7214635">49 Regal</a>. Woodbury would have a premium over Woodbury East as you don't have to cross any major roads to get to the Town Center shops but Woodbury East would have the newness premium to offset this.</blockquote>


I remember one of the sales reps at WB East mentioned that there might be a pedestrian bridge across the 133 to the Great Park in the master plan. That would certainly increase the value of WB East. They might have dropped the idea due to cost and slow buildout of WB East and Great Park.
 
Woodbury East seems to starts sooner than my expectation, although the village is at a convenient location to freeways, town center, spectrum...but there is the 133 toll road behind = freeway next to it, does it seem as a big minus to all of you?
 
[quote author="hesitating" date=1242396759]Woodbury East seems to starts sooner than my expectation, although the village is at a convenient location to freeways, town center, spectrum...but there is the 133 toll road behind = freeway next to it, does it seem as a big minus to all of you?</blockquote>


While the 133 is a freeway, it is not in the same class as a real freeway like the 5 or 405. The 133 is small and has fairly light traffic so it should not be much of a problem. The very similar 241 runs right next to West Irvine and Northpark and the people I know who live there say they barely notice it.
 
When WE had its first (aborted) opening in Fall 2007, I toured the JLH models, which were the only ones being marketed at the time. Now it's another development by another builder. I guess JLH abandoned that project when it filed for bankruptcy...I wonder what will happen to those models.
 
It is sad to see that consumers are willing to compromise themselves to living in a sandwiched box with no yard, no identity, no privacy and no curb appeal.



This triplex may be around 16.5 units per acre with 1358 sf being the average that the total footage per acre is 22,407.



22,407 x $338/sf=$7.6 million sale revenue per acre and that confirm my bench mark theory that each acre plot must yield around $7.5 million to cover expediture associated with building a community and land cost.



Resale homeowners are in the process of adjusting their home prices to follow TIC's benchmark pricing.



As TIC's PR get to be widely publicized other un-informed home sellers will quickly follow. I think we will not reach the bottom price due to TIC's benchmark pricing interuption. More projects are scheduled to be release in other locations and home sellers will adjust their prices accordingly.



The window of opportunity of buying cheap resale is cut short by TIC's new home release.



Should this theory be reversed that TIC becomes deperate for cash and wants to compete with cheap resale so new home prices fall to $200/sf. Bren being the top 20th richest man finally realized he has cash flow issue.
 
Sounds like a good time to dust off an old blog posting and reflect on the then and now.



<a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/the-supply-side-postponements-and-pent-up-supply/">http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/the-supply-side-postponements-and-pent-up-supply/</a>



SCHB
 
[quote author="socalhousingbubble" date=1242435678]Sounds like a good time to dust off an old blog posting and reflect on the then and now.



<a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/the-supply-side-postponements-and-pent-up-supply/">http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/the-supply-side-postponements-and-pent-up-supply/</a>



SCHB</blockquote>


Thank you for the reference. I missed the original posting.



The only way that I can see the benchmark pricing not influencing existing resales is no consumer demand for new homes and thus no validation of benchmark prices. No new home sales and therefore no comps to interrupt the declining price momentum.



TIC is smarter this time around by building a smaller attached 3 unit building with quicker sale absorption to commensurate construction than the previously failed 18 attached unit Celadon with just 2 buyers unable to break ground.
 
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