New Listing - Bowen Court Plan 1 in Woodbury (14 Costa Brava)

jbot747 said:
Case in point, here is a comp (2br/1.5ba/1100sqft) on the same street that last sold for $400k, that has been on the market since June for $550-
http://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Irvine-CA-92620/79812609_zpid/96954_rid

Doesn't seem like there was a greater fool, and it will probably get delisted, with them stuck in that condo unless they drop their asking price by about 20-30%.

But what do I know, I have never worked for a commission...
Click to expand...

You know, you really sound like someone who's soar because they didn't buy before price started going up significantly in late 2012.  You were waiting for a 20-30% drop in prices, huh?  Have you not learned that the Fed and other central banks can kick the can down the road longer than you think? 

Since you like throwing around linking to listing, I'll throw up a relevant CLOSED COMP for you...
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/101-Nature-92620/home/12253633

This was the model match that closed a few months ago...as you can see in the 3rd picture, it was not upgraded at all.  So yeah, the listing price is fair.  But hey, you might think that this is an outlier and no other small detached condos closed around $500/sf....
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/14-Iceberg-Rose-92620/home/12257357
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/23-Arboretum-92620/home/7211920

Nope sorry, looks like there are a few more than closed for over $500/sf.  I don't remember saying that housing is going to the moon....I think I mentioned that it'd be flatish in the near term.  If you think you'll be able to buy a place in Irvine for 20-30% discount compared to today's lower prices you are smoking some good stuff because there are loads of buyers that are ready to buy once we get a 5-10% pullback in prices.  Also, loans have been fully underwritten since 2009 and the buyers since that time have been much stronger than back in the 2005-2006 ninja loan bubble days.  I know this first hand since I've purchased and refi'ed several properties. 
 
jbot747 said:
I am paying about $2100 for a 2br/2ba there, so I don't know what to say about the prices on their website. I know I have negotiated with them at every renewal, starting in 2011 when I was paying $1980/month.

What I do know is that when everyone thinks its a great time to buy, and interest rates are low, it's about the worst time one could buy (historically) I am sorry, but that condo in question will fall AT LEAST 20-30% in price, I of course just can't say when... (assuming someone will buy it for that much in the first place)
Click to expand...

I call BS on your negotiation with IAC....one thing I know is that they don't negotiate, especially when the rental market is good.  IAC can be as flexible as a bar of steel.
 
And IMHO, both those other buyers overpaid. I don't remember saying that just because this condo would lose value (essentially the entire 20% down) within the next year or two, that nobody else went and did something equally stupid with the purchase of a similar home this summer.

But I guess that's how it always is with a bubble, monkey see monkey do. Not sure why you are taking this opinion so personally, it's not like I am the only one who holds it.... and I am pretty sure the FED did all the can kicking before the bubble burst, but it didn't prevent it.
 
jbot747 said:
You two sound like an infomercial, with the scripted dialog between two people to get people to nod along with them. I'd rather continue to pay the $2100/month for the 2br/2ba in the village then commit to a $500k 1br condo that will be worth $400 by the end of next year.
Click to expand...

You have to admit,  you guys do sound like a ridiculous scripted dialogue.  I thought the same thing but didnt say anything.  Im sure many others think the same.
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
jbot747 said:
Case in point, here is a comp (2br/1.5ba/1100sqft) on the same street that last sold for $400k, that has been on the market since June for $550-
http://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Irvine-CA-92620/79812609_zpid/96954_rid

Doesn't seem like there was a greater fool, and it will probably get delisted, with them stuck in that condo unless they drop their asking price by about 20-30%.

But what do I know, I have never worked for a commission...
Click to expand...

You know, you really sound like someone who's soar because they didn't buy before price started going up significantly in late 2012.  You were waiting for a 20-30% drop in prices, huh?  Have you not learned that the Fed and other central banks can kick the can down the road longer than you think? 

Since you like throwing around linking to listing, I'll throw up a relevant CLOSED COMP for you...
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/101-Nature-92620/home/12253633

This was the model match that closed a few months ago...as you can see in the 3rd picture, it was not upgraded at all.  So yeah, the listing price is fair.  But hey, you might think that this is an outlier and no other small detached condos closed around $500/sf....
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/14-Iceberg-Rose-92620/home/12257357
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/23-Arboretum-92620/home/7211920

Nope sorry, looks like there are a few more than closed for over $500/sf.  I don't remember saying that housing is going to the moon....I think I mentioned that it'd be flatish in the near term.  If you think you'll be able to buy a place in Irvine for 20-30% discount compared to today's lower prices you are smoking some good stuff because there are loads of buyers that are ready to buy once we get a 5-10% pullback in prices.  Also, loans have been fully underwritten since 2009 and the buyers since that time have been much stronger than back in the 2005-2006 ninja loan bubble days.  I know this first hand since I've purchased and refi'ed several properties. 
Click to expand...

I agree with USC in terms of the fully underwritten, stronger buyers compared to before.  We have neighbors in our rental place that could not qualify because they didn't have the 12 months reserve.  The builder bank didn't even qualify them even though they had the down payment and plenty of monthly income to meet payments because of the shortfall in the reserve.  So yes, they are way more strict and sticking to that formula even if it means lost sales and phases not moving as fast.

Also, I believe that we are going the way of the negative interest rate like Japan, Europe, etc.  The Man (or Woman) is not going to let the economy go into the hole if there is some tools in their bags left.  And the NIRP is a tool they have not used yet (look at some of the other countries that have been using it for awhile already, everything takes a lot longer than we realize and inflation is real.)
 
jbot747 said:
You two sound like an infomercial, with the scripted dialog between two people to get people to nod along with them. I'd rather continue to pay the $2100/month for the 2br/2ba in the village then commit to a $500k 1br condo that will be worth $400 by the end of next year.
Click to expand...

I don't know who the two are but if you're talking about me, what I say is my OPINION but I've been around a LONG time.

I've bought houses at the peak, I've seen my house go down in value or nowhere and crazy up.

I've been thru stock bear markets and bull markets and a bubble.

I've seen interest rates rise like crazy and fall way farther than I thought they EVER would.

I've seen resale prices pressured because builders sweetened their own inventory.

To say houses in Irvine will drop 20-30% by end of next year has absolutely NO precedent AT ALL. Yes, we COULD see that kind of drop but not in 15 months. That type of thing requires a more liquid product that can be sold quicker, like stocks or bonds.

I do believe there ARE cycles in housing and stocks mostly due to the business cycle but the fed has been trying (successfully for quite some time) to repeal the business cycle and there is NO reason to think they will reverse course and let things go downhill just to have rates rise.

I put my last house up for sale a little after your article was written and have been in my new place for 10 months. Guess what? Rates are even lower than when I was looking to get a loan and the author of your article is still waiting for that drop.
 
jbot747 said:
And IMHO, both those other buyers overpaid. I don't remember saying that just because this condo would lose value (essentially the entire 20% down) within the next year or two, that nobody else went and did something equally stupid with the purchase of a similar home this summer.

But I guess that's how it always is with a bubble, monkey see monkey do. Not sure why you are taking this opinion so personally, it's not like I am the only one who holds it.... and I am pretty sure the FED did all the can kicking before the bubble burst, but it didn't prevent it.
Click to expand...
20% down in the next year or two is a pretty bold prediction...

I hear what you're sayin about buy low sell high, and lower price with higher interest rate > higher price low interest rate.

But what if you're wrong on the timing. Let's say the down cycle doesn't happen instead of next year or two, it's five years and so on.  Or it goes down 10% and not meeting your 20-30% threshold. You'd be stuck paying rising (IAC monopoly rent) for that duration (would the flexibility of rental > locked in current monthly mortgage?).  Some people don't have the luxury of time, growing family, etc.


 
USCTrojanCPA said:
jbot747 said:
I am paying about $2100 for a 2br/2ba there, so I don't know what to say about the prices on their website. I know I have negotiated with them at every renewal, starting in 2011 when I was paying $1980/month.

What I do know is that when everyone thinks its a great time to buy, and interest rates are low, it's about the worst time one could buy (historically) I am sorry, but that condo in question will fall AT LEAST 20-30% in price, I of course just can't say when... (assuming someone will buy it for that much in the first place)
Click to expand...

I call BS on your negotiation with IAC....one thing I know is that they don't negotiate, especially when the rental market is good.  IAC can be as flexible as a bar of steel.
Click to expand...

I do agree that it's almost impossible to negotiate with IAC. I've thrown every trick in the book at them to no avail. They are pretty ruthless.

However, it is misleading to say this is just $1600 a month. There's HOA and I'm guessing MR as well. Some repairs that come with owing a proprety. Also the 100k invested elsewhere would have some return as well. If it was me, I'd spend a little more to get a 2-bedroom, it's way easier to sell. Very few people are looking to buy a 1-bedroom in Irvine.
 
I live in IAC apartments for years before owning, they don't negotiate. If they throw you a bone it's something minor.  They often start with pretty sweet promotions to begin with, so they aren't looking to give more away.

To add to what others are saying, some people who purchased with strong finances 4-5 years ago or now looking to move up.  There is no timing the market for those people if you need more space for children or elderly folks to care for in the home.
 
Agreed, I was only able to get them to not raise my rent once, and had to go down to the wire on not renewing my lease to the point where I had to be ready to move. That being said I moved to Irvine in 2011, and my rent started at $1980 for a 2br/ba in Cambria (the cheapest part of the village)

As for the rest of what this thread has devolved to (swear I wasn't trying to troll)

Thought this was an interesting and somewhat objective tool-
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/upshot/buy-rent-calculator.html?_r=0

 
jbot747 said:
Agreed, I was only able to get them to not raise my rent once, and had to go down to the wire on not renewing my lease to the point where I had to be ready to move. That being said I moved to Irvine in 2011, and my rent started at $1980 for a 2br/ba in Cambria (the cheapest part of the village)

As for the rest of what this thread has devolved to (swear I wasn't trying to troll)

Thought this was an interesting and somewhat objective tool-
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/upshot/buy-rent-calculator.html?_r=0
Click to expand...

welcome to talkirvine.  get used to it. 
 
hello said:
jbot747 said:
Agreed, I was only able to get them to not raise my rent once, and had to go down to the wire on not renewing my lease to the point where I had to be ready to move. That being said I moved to Irvine in 2011, and my rent started at $1980 for a 2br/ba in Cambria (the cheapest part of the village)

As for the rest of what this thread has devolved to (swear I wasn't trying to troll)

Thought this was an interesting and somewhat objective tool-
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/upshot/buy-rent-calculator.html?_r=0
Click to expand...

welcome to talkirvine.  get used to it.
Click to expand...

All on here welcome all opinions and values your input.  If we all sounds the same then there wouldn't be a discussion or talk. Hopefully, your input provides lessons learned from past experience which translate into wisdoms, and best choice for your current circumstances.
 
I personally was tired of seeing my rent go up by 7-8% every year and it pushed us to buy a 3-bedroom place although we only need a 1-bedroom for a couple more years. But I think most people that are tired of dealing with rent would go for a 2 or 3 bedroom place rather than a 1-bedroom for a few years. The upside of a 1-bedroom in Irvine is low.
 
Thanks for the kind words.  It was a team effort with the seller and I working together.  Having a home that shows as well as this home does never hurts either.  haha
 
You guys! Stop the infomercial already!

Just kidding - good job USC!

(I may or may not have been paid to be part of this scripted dialogue)
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
Offer received and with a counter from each side we are opening escrow tomorrow.  :D
Click to expand...
Congratz !! I followed this thread and your other posts too !! I am new to TI, but I have already started referring you to my friends - that TI user by this name seem to be very knowledgeable person and to try contacting you !! We recently bought a house. I wish I followed TI and found you before I bought the house !!
 
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