I THINK THE MARKETS HAVE TOPPED

Ahhh a challenge. i love a challenge. Well in the spirit I will be my usual counter intuitive self and go against the grain with a prediction of 11,000 Dow or better, S and P at 1150 or better. I will not bore anyone with my wacky reasoning since this is all for fun.
 
[quote author="muzie" date=1255929527][quote author="awgee" date=1255687260]Panda, awhile back were there not quite a few folks in here ganging up on you for buying gold and saying you did not know anything about investing? For someone who does not know anything, you seem to have been right, and they were wrong.</blockquote>


Gold has had a 55% run-up in two years. But 90% of that run had already happened from Aug 07-Mar 08. The rest after that was all volatility due to liquidity issues in all markets.



Imho those who really saw things early with prescience acted way back in Q3 '07. Those that came later were just following the herd - and as gold has stuck around at 900$ for most of the last two years, I wouldn't be screaming victory over a 5% yearly return at this point. The easy money (and boy was it easy) in gold was back in '07.



If someone was lucky enough to pick the bottom in gold, good for them. Though if we'll be comparing bottoms stocks would have been just fine too.



I have no strong opinion on gold as I don't understand it well. It's just not clear to me how great Gold did when you take away the effects of fortunate timing. Clearly anyone who's been investing in gold for a year or so with regular contributions has not come out ahead so far.</blockquote>


The "easy money" in gold was late last year/early this year when gold miners were selling at less than cash value. The market valued gold reserves at a negative value. I wouldn't scream victory at 5% either, but the 81% APY I'm at for 09 so far is less than depressing.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1255922680][quote author="graphrix" date=1255914759][quote author="PANDA" date=1255865591]I am predicting that S&P 500 will be around 750 by Dec 31, 2009. A Drop of 30% from now until then. Graphix, Bondtrader, Trojanman, Awgee, Morekaos, let's play a game.



Post up your best guess where S&P 500 will be at on Dec 31, 2009 and let's see who gets closest to it by year end.</blockquote>


S&P will not be below 950 but above 950 at the end of year.</blockquote>


Thanks Graphrix. I also want to hear from the other IHB economic gurus... MoreKaos, Novas, Bondtrader, Trojanman, and Optimus.



Panda's Challenge: Where will the S&P500; be at on December 31th, 2009?



Graphrix - 950

Panda - 750



Graphrix, I think we may see a very near term / short term recovering on the dollar against foreign currencies and then resuming its downturn for the long run. It will be nothing like the dollar rally we saw in October 2008.</blockquote>


Panda, you can put me down for 1020
 
S&P500; Dec 31, 2009 prediction. It seems that we have all bases covered.

October 19, 2009 - S&P at 1100.



Graphrix - 950

Panda - 750

Bondtrader - 1020

MoreKaos- 1150



Thanks Bondtrader. Where do you see the dollar at on Dec 31 2009?
 
S&P500; Dec 31, 2009 prediction. It seems that we have all bases covered.

October 19, 2009 - S&P at 1100.



Graphrix - 950

Panda - 750

Bondtrader - 1020

Awgee - 1085

MoreKaos- 1150



Anyone want to take the average of Graphix and Panda? 850 Anyone????
 
S&P500; Dec 31, 2009 prediction. It seems that we have all bases covered.

October 19, 2009 - S&P at 1100.



Graphrix - 950

Panda - 750

Bondtrader - 1020

Awgee - 1085

MoreKaos- 1150

IHO - 888



Predictions for S&P 500 on Dec 31, 2009 is now closed. It would be quite funny if IHO wins this. Let the Games Begin :)
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1255914759]S&P will not be below 950 but above 950 at the end of year.</blockquote>


I have to quote myself since panda did not read what I said. I did not say the S&P would be at 950 at the end of the year... now did I.
 
S&P500; Dec 31, 2009 prediction. It seems that we have all bases covered.

October 19, 2009 - S&P at 1100.



Graphrix - 950

Novas - 951

Panda - 750

Bondtrader - 1020

Awgee - 1085

MoreKaos- 1150

IHO - 888



Alright Novas, I will make an exception. You will be the last one in! Let the Games Begin :)
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1255940427][quote author="muzie" date=1255929527][quote author="awgee" date=1255687260]Panda, awhile back were there not quite a few folks in here ganging up on you for buying gold and saying you did not know anything about investing? For someone who does not know anything, you seem to have been right, and they were wrong.</blockquote>


Gold has had a 55% run-up in two years. But 90% of that run had already happened from Aug 07-Mar 08. The rest after that was all volatility due to liquidity issues in all markets.



Imho those who really saw things early with prescience acted way back in Q3 '07. Those that came later were just following the herd - and as gold has stuck around at 900$ for most of the last two years, I wouldn't be screaming victory over a 5% yearly return at this point. The easy money (and boy was it easy) in gold was back in '07.



If someone was lucky enough to pick the bottom in gold, good for them. Though if we'll be comparing bottoms stocks would have been just fine too.



I have no strong opinion on gold as I don't understand it well. It's just not clear to me how great Gold did when you take away the effects of fortunate timing. Clearly anyone who's been investing in gold for a year or so with regular contributions has not come out ahead so far.</blockquote>


As close as I can tell, the Panda Challenge was started around the beginning of September of 2008. I guess I would not be saying anything if I was talking about 5%, but then I am not data mining and choosing my dates or prices. I will let the data speak for itself.





Current Rank Previous day?s rank Account Value (USD) Today?s change in value Overall%

1. awgee 1 $165,366.78 $0.00 65.37%

2. golfplan18 2 $121,611.40 $0.00 21.61%

3. graphrix2 3 $121,138.47 $0.00 21.14%

4. ukyo116 4 $100,115.38 $0.00 0.12%

5. skekker 5 $77,996.09 $0.00 -22.00%



But then, maybe it is just fortunate timing.

By the way, what makes you think the folks Panda is calling on are not invested? With da real?

I am not going to tell you what my actual portfolio consists of, but if you care to see if your investing/trading ideas hold up, join the Panda Challenge.

Typing is cheap. Show us whatcha got.</blockquote>




No Awgee I'm not interested in a pissing contest with you, thanks - though you can be confident your one-year record is most likely much better than mine, if that is important to you. It's not to me.



I am interested in exchanging investment principles & ideas. I couldn't care less if somebody made 10 million in the markets if they can't demonstrate with foolproof logic the principles behind their investments. Not implying that you don't know what you're doing, just that your particular virtual or real brokerage transactions and how successful they were are of absolutely no interest to me.



This is why I take issue with the "see Panda, you made money, thus you were right" attitude. Teach a man to fish and all that. If you made money but aren't sure why, then might as well buy lottery tickets. I think Panda knows more than everybody would think. But some of us were concerned as he seemed very easy to influence, particularly from people who like to think they've got everything all figured out perfectly...
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1256002967]S&P500; Dec 31, 2009 prediction. It seems that we have all bases covered.

October 19, 2009 - S&P at 1100.



Graphrix - 950

Novas - 951

Panda - 750

Bondtrader - 1020

Awgee - 1085

MoreKaos- 1150

IHO - 888



Alright Novas, I will make an exception. You will be the last one in! Let the Games Begin :)</blockquote>
S&P will end the year between 1,120 to 1,180
 
[quote author="muzie" date=1256010364][quote author="awgee" date=1255940427][quote author="muzie" date=1255929527][quote author="awgee" date=1255687260]Panda, awhile back were there not quite a few folks in here ganging up on you for buying gold and saying you did not know anything about investing? For someone who does not know anything, you seem to have been right, and they were wrong.</blockquote>


Gold has had a 55% run-up in two years. But 90% of that run had already happened from Aug 07-Mar 08. The rest after that was all volatility due to liquidity issues in all markets.



Imho those who really saw things early with prescience acted way back in Q3 '07. Those that came later were just following the herd - and as gold has stuck around at 900$ for most of the last two years, I wouldn't be screaming victory over a 5% yearly return at this point. The easy money (and boy was it easy) in gold was back in '07.



If someone was lucky enough to pick the bottom in gold, good for them. Though if we'll be comparing bottoms stocks would have been just fine too.



I have no strong opinion on gold as I don't understand it well. It's just not clear to me how great Gold did when you take away the effects of fortunate timing. Clearly anyone who's been investing in gold for a year or so with regular contributions has not come out ahead so far.</blockquote>


As close as I can tell, the Panda Challenge was started around the beginning of September of 2008. I guess I would not be saying anything if I was talking about 5%, but then I am not data mining and choosing my dates or prices. I will let the data speak for itself.





Current Rank Previous day?s rank Account Value (USD) Today?s change in value Overall%

1. awgee 1 $165,366.78 $0.00 65.37%

2. golfplan18 2 $121,611.40 $0.00 21.61%

3. graphrix2 3 $121,138.47 $0.00 21.14%

4. ukyo116 4 $100,115.38 $0.00 0.12%

5. skekker 5 $77,996.09 $0.00 -22.00%



But then, maybe it is just fortunate timing.

By the way, what makes you think the folks Panda is calling on are not invested? With da real?

I am not going to tell you what my actual portfolio consists of, but if you care to see if your investing/trading ideas hold up, join the Panda Challenge.

Typing is cheap. Show us whatcha got.</blockquote>




No Awgee I'm not interested in a pissing contest with you, thanks - though you can be confident your one-year record is most likely much better than mine, if that is important to you. It's not to me.



I am interested in exchanging investment principles & ideas. I couldn't care less if somebody made 10 million in the markets if they can't demonstrate with foolproof logic the principles behind their investments. Not implying that you don't know what you're doing, just that your particular virtual or real brokerage transactions and how successful they were are of absolutely no interest to me.</blockquote>


There is no foolproof logic for any investment strategy.



The pissing contest was important enough for you to put down anyone who would brag about 5%.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1256010745]

There is no foolproof logic for any investment strategy.



The pissing contest was important enough for you to put down anyone who would brag about 5%.</blockquote>


... sigh.



Yes Awgee I made this post entirely to put you & Panda down. You read it 100%.



And there is no such thing as foolproof logic so why use logic at all, right? Let me spell it out for you. If a company doubles its earnings tomorrow, and it's sustainable, it is foolproof logic you'll make money. You know why? Because if even if no one in the universe wants to buy the darn stock, the earnings will find your way into your pocket through dividends. You're not dependent on the ideas of the mob. Same ideas as the cash flow real estate investor who doesn't give a shit about home appreciation because all he needs is rents to cover his income. Yes, he's not guaranteed to find rents or tenants, but I didn't say foolproof investment, I said foolproof <strong>logic</strong>. Relationships.



There's no foolproof logic in gold. There's no cash flow. If everybody in the world buys in the theory that gold hedges inflation (even though there's been a bunch of studies showing that gold shows no strong correlation with inflation over the long term), then good for you, you make money. But that's just guessing which meme will become popular. It's got nothing to do with buying assets that provide durable income. But suit yourself. Clearly you're winning and that's all that counts right?



Getting sidetracked here, didn't mean to turn this into a gold bash fest. I'm interested in the arguments on gold, the ones I've heard just don't pass the smell test for me. This is probably the wrong thread for this too.
 
That was an interesting last 45 minutes of trading today. It looks like we'll get to celebrate the Dow breaking 10,000 every day now!
 
[quote author="Oxtail" date=1256186426]That was an interesting last 45 minutes of trading today. It looks like we'll get to celebrate the Dow breaking 10,000 every day now!</blockquote>
An analyst comes out and downgrades Wells and the whole market tanks? Sure seems like the bid boys want to bring the market down a bit.
 
Sold all domestic equities yesterday. Regardless of the technicals, I can't imagine earnings growth is going to justify 25-30x P/Es over the next year.
 
[quote author="CapitalismWorks" date=1256190010]Sold all domestic equities yesterday. Regardless of the technicals, I can't imagine earnings growth is going to justify 25-30x P/Es over the next year.</blockquote>


It's not. Today was the top...the way the market closed. Bye bye.



The earnings blowout was it...all the estimates were lowered to such a level it was easy to beat the EPS by 50%+ easy.
 
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