I THINK THE MARKETS HAVE TOPPED

Sorry, I meant to post the Bloomberg article about this, but forgot.

Here is Zero Hedge's take:

<a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/putin-prepared-avoid-dollar-chinese-commodity-transactions">Putin Prepared to Avoid Dollar in Chinese Commodity Transactions</a>
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1255767333]Sorry, I meant to post the Bloomberg article about this, but forgot.

Here is Zero Hedge's take:

<a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/putin-prepared-avoid-dollar-chinese-commodity-transactions">Putin Prepared to Avoid Dollar in Chinese Commodity Transactions</a></blockquote>


Okay, so they swap yuan for rubles. Since the Chinese continue to artifically hold thier currency pinned to the US$, they effectively pay the same in yuan as in dollars. The only thing that changes is the they skip the trip to dollars. No oppourtunity to arbitrage with the currency peg.



<img src="http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2009/July/us-dollar-vs-chinese-yuan.gif" alt="" />



Good deal for the Russians tho.



<img src="http://www.exchange-rates.org/Chart.aspx?iso_code=RUB&base_iso_code=USD&mode=G&filter=180" alt="" />



Now the Russians can screw the Chinese for keeping thier currency peged.
 
Here is another good <a href="http://www.smartmoney.com/Investing/Economy/The-Dollar-s-Fall-Deal-With-It/">article </a>on why the dollar will probably not recover... I was trying to short oil all week; and lost my shirt... just really have to deal with the fact that even though the FED has to say they are trying to protect the dollar; they NEED the dollar to fall.
 
You can pick and choose all you want to convince yourself.

Bottom line, the dollar is toast. And if you are not prepared you will lose.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1255782624]You can pick and choose all you want to convince yourself.

Bottom line, the dollar is toast. And if you are not prepared you will lose.</blockquote>


Who's picking and choosing? You have many times said there will be radical inflation in food prices. Show me the proof.



Further, convince myself of what? You implied some conspiricy as a result of the US losing "reserve status". Okay, you're right - and the yuan still is pinned to the dollar. There is no arbitrage to be had of meaningful size. The Russians recive the same price in Rubles if the Chinese pay in dollars or in Yuan.



<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arbitrage">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arbitrage</a>



Agreed, the dollar is toast. Yay for my side! I don't shop at Wal Mart.



Prepared for what? To watch the the Chinese take it in the keester (as they attempt to keep the yuan weak with thier currency pin) and overpay for everything else, sans my alias?



Rodgers is playing coy and being disingenous, or doesn't know what he's talking about. I'm just holding the man to his word when he speaks publicly. China and India have millions of rural farmers that they need to find industries to work in. This is as much social policy on thier part as anything else. If, on the off chance you and Jim are right, and we have a currency crisis the Chinese have the most to lose out of anybody. Production will evenutally re-shore itself to the US.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1255831160]Ukyo,



I am big fan of GDX, but not at those prices.</blockquote>


I agree it could go lower, but relative to the price of gold, I still think its a decent purchase. It is looking rather bullish on its monthly chart.
 
[quote author="ukyo116" date=1255847196][quote author="PANDA" date=1255831160]Ukyo,



I am big fan of GDX, but not at those prices.</blockquote>


I agree it could go lower, but relative to the price of gold, I still think its a decent purchase. It is looking rather bullish on its monthly chart.</blockquote>


I am waiting and hoping for a short bear market rally on the dollar to maybe 80 short term, to buy more shares of GDX. With the dollar rock bottom at almost 75, right now is not time. I also like Silver Wheaton Corp. (SLW), but prices have jumped up so much right now. I would definitely wait for a pull pack.
 
I am predicting that S&P 500 will be around 750 by Dec 31, 2009. A Drop of 30% from now until then. Graphix, Bondtrader, Trojanman, Awgee, Morekaos, let's play a game.



Post up your best guess where S&P 500 will be at on Dec 31, 2009 and let's see who gets closest to it by year end.
 
I have no idea what the S&P will be on Dec. 31, 2009.

Re. games, put your foot in The Panda Challenge.

On the USD, I am looking at a one year chart. Obviously, there are much better chart technicians than myself, but this is what I see. And anybody, please feel free to chime in and show me where I am wrong.



Everything I read in the msfm is saying that the dollar is oversold.

Stochasitcs - looks low, but I would not describe it as oversold.

MACD - low, but calling it oversold would be a stretch. And extremely interesting to me on the MACD is that if you are looking at a stndard (12,26,9), it just crossed over at the beginning of the week, and on the one year, this particular crossover has been followed by declines and some rather large ones.

The chart itself - If one draws a standard downtrend channel, (I do not think anybody would disagree the dollar is trending down), current levels are at the top of that downtrend and would appear to have a great distance to fall to get to the lower portion of the channel.



Anybody?
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1255865591]I am predicting that S&P 500 will be around 750 by Dec 31, 2009. A Drop of 30% from now until then. Graphix, Bondtrader, Trojanman, Awgee, Morekaos, let's play a game.



Post up your best guess where S&P 500 will be at on Dec 31, 2009 and let's see who gets closest to it by year end.</blockquote>


S&P will not be below 950 but above 950 at the end of year.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1255914759][quote author="PANDA" date=1255865591]I am predicting that S&P 500 will be around 750 by Dec 31, 2009. A Drop of 30% from now until then. Graphix, Bondtrader, Trojanman, Awgee, Morekaos, let's play a game.



Post up your best guess where S&P 500 will be at on Dec 31, 2009 and let's see who gets closest to it by year end.</blockquote>


S&P will not be below 950 but above 950 at the end of year.</blockquote>


Thanks Graphrix. I also want to hear from the other IHB economic gurus... MoreKaos, Novas, Bondtrader, Trojanman, and Optimus.



Panda's Challenge: Where will the S&P500; be at on December 31th, 2009?



Graphrix - 950

Panda - 750



Graphrix, I think we may see a very near term / short term recovering on the dollar against foreign currencies and then resuming its downturn for the long run. It will be nothing like the dollar rally we saw in October 2008.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1255902297]

Everything I read in the msfm is saying that the dollar is oversold.

Stochasitcs - looks low, but I would not describe it as oversold.

MACD - low, but calling it oversold would be a stretch. And extremely interesting to me on the MACD is that if you are looking at a stndard (12,26,9), it just crossed over at the beginning of the week, and on the one year, this particular crossover has been followed by declines and some rather large ones.

The chart itself - If one draws a standard downtrend channel, (I do not think anybody would disagree the dollar is trending down), current levels are at the top of that downtrend and would appear to have a great distance to fall to get to the lower portion of the channel.

Anybody?</blockquote>


I do not use stochasitcs when I look at charts. I saw the exact same thing when I looked at MACD, further convincing me that the dollar has farther to go. In terms of sentiment, even those in the gold bug camp are not convinced of the price of gold and are preparing for a pullback.



Against gold, the dollar is lower than the time it was at 72 (early 2008) on the index.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1255865591]I am predicting that S&P 500 will be around 750 by Dec 31, 2009. A Drop of 30% from now until then. Graphix, Bondtrader, Trojanman, Awgee, Morekaos, let's play a game.



Post up your best guess where S&P 500 will be at on Dec 31, 2009 and let's see who gets closest to it by year end.</blockquote>


Why play a game? If you really think that then buy yourself a truckload of S&P puts at that level for that month. If it works you'll never have to worry about if you can afford that Irvine house you've been fixated on ever again ;-). Why waste time fooling around?



Other than that - is indexing or anti-indexing the only acceptable strategy nowadays... There are stocks with sound fundamental who are hedged against a dollar collapse, unrelated to housing, and recession-resistant. Why does everything have to be an all-in bet for/against the S&P?



If you like gold miners but not at this level, then sell puts for the level you want. There's really no excuse for <em>not doing anything</em>, if people are half as confident as they sound like they are :). There's always a way to implement a particular view in the market without staying on the sidelines.
 
Muzie.. it is really good to see you back. Where have you been? Hope you did not sell your miners and gold last year. I know it was really painful late last year.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1255687260]Panda, awhile back were there not quite a few folks in here ganging up on you for buying gold and saying you did not know anything about investing? For someone who does not know anything, you seem to have been right, and they were wrong.</blockquote>


Gold has had a 55% run-up in two years. But 90% of that run had already happened from Aug 07-Mar 08. The rest after that was all volatility due to liquidity issues in all markets.



Imho those who really saw things early with prescience acted way back in Q3 '07. Those that came later were just following the herd - and as gold has stuck around at 900$ for most of the last two years, I wouldn't be screaming victory over a 5% yearly return at this point. The easy money (and boy was it easy) in gold was back in '07.



If someone was lucky enough to pick the bottom in gold, good for them. Though if we'll be comparing bottoms stocks would have been just fine too.



I have no strong opinion on gold as I don't understand it well. It's just not clear to me how great Gold did when you take away the effects of fortunate timing. Clearly anyone who's been investing in gold for a year or so with regular contributions has not come out ahead so far.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1255929115]Muzie.. it is really good to see you back. Where have you been? Hope you did not sell your miners and gold last year. I know it was really painful late last year.</blockquote>


Hello Panda. How are you? I hope you did well!



Oh yes I got rid of gold and miners a long time ago. I'm fine with that - I realized back then I just didn't understand gold well enough to be 100% comfortable if it dropped by half or more. Back then I knew significant temporary drops were likely even if I made the right pick, so that was an important criteria. Currencies, inflation, and the political meanderings of nations around the dollar are complex issues I can't say I understand well. And to be honest I doubt many people here do - it seems many rely on the simple "government debt=lower dollar" relationship, which although sensible seems like a very single-faceted way to look at the situation imho. The fact gold is not technically a "productive" asset also makes me suspicious.



Pain is good :). With 50%+ of my portfolio in bank stocks shorts last summer you would think I should have made out like a bandit. But that's where being 100% comfortable is important, and where I failed :). I was over my risk threshold, and couldn't hold on. Crisis like these are very good to test one's mettle, and now I'm confident in the future I will handle these things differently.



There were losses, but in retrospect it was much ado about nothing. I've got strong job income coming in still that allowed me replenish some of the missing funds, and thus my accounts are still at personal highs. Overall the losses represent maybe 10-12% of funds at current levels.



These days I try to stay away from macro as I simply don't want to deal with guessing government meddling, and try to focus on micro as much as possible.
 
[quote author="muzie" date=1255929527][quote author="awgee" date=1255687260]Panda, awhile back were there not quite a few folks in here ganging up on you for buying gold and saying you did not know anything about investing? For someone who does not know anything, you seem to have been right, and they were wrong.</blockquote>


Gold has had a 55% run-up in two years. But 90% of that run had already happened from Aug 07-Mar 08. The rest after that was all volatility due to liquidity issues in all markets.



Imho those who really saw things early with prescience acted way back in Q3 '07. Those that came later were just following the herd - and as gold has stuck around at 900$ for most of the last two years, I wouldn't be screaming victory over a 5% yearly return at this point. The easy money (and boy was it easy) in gold was back in '07.



If someone was lucky enough to pick the bottom in gold, good for them. Though if we'll be comparing bottoms stocks would have been just fine too.



I have no strong opinion on gold as I don't understand it well. It's just not clear to me how great Gold did when you take away the effects of fortunate timing. Clearly anyone who's been investing in gold for a year or so with regular contributions has not come out ahead so far.</blockquote>


As close as I can tell, the Panda Challenge was started around the beginning of September of 2008. I guess I would not be saying anything if I was talking about 5%, but then I am not data mining and choosing my dates or prices. I will let the data speak for itself.





Current Rank Previous day?s rank Account Value (USD) Today?s change in value Overall%

1. awgee 1 $165,366.78 $0.00 65.37%

2. golfplan18 2 $121,611.40 $0.00 21.61%

3. graphrix2 3 $121,138.47 $0.00 21.14%

4. ukyo116 4 $100,115.38 $0.00 0.12%

5. skekker 5 $77,996.09 $0.00 -22.00%



But then, maybe it is just fortunate timing.

By the way, what makes you think the folks Panda is calling on are not invested? With da real?

I am not going to tell you what my actual portfolio consists of, but if you care to see if your investing/trading ideas hold up, join the Panda Challenge.

Typing is cheap. Show us whatcha got.
 
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