Woodbridge - hitting bottom???

M

movingaround_IHB

New member
<p>I just was doing a quick search on condos in Woodbridge (which is where we want to buy eventually). I checked rentals for a 3 bed around 1200 sq feet rent it about 2200 - 2500. 2500 X 160 would be 400,000 and I noticed that there actually are condos in Woodbridge with 3 bedrooms listed at prices between 400,000 to 500,000 range. </p>

<p>Please correct me if I am wrong but are the condos getting close to bottom - or am I doing these calculations wrong? Looking at single family homes they are nowhere near the rent ratio suggested in this blog but the condo numbers surprised me a bit.</p>
 
I noticed this 3bd/1.25ba 1135 sq ft for $399,900 in Woodbridge the other day:





<a href="http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=968127">http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=968127</a>
 
I understand that most would agree there is still farther down to go - but it was interesting for me to find something in Irvine that I could buy and get pretty close to saving money on rent - granted, in this market I don't want to put any of my savings down on a house - maybe I need a no money down loan! ha ha!
 
Not even close to the bottom......





A place like this that needs a major remodel should sell for about $220,000.





You can rent a 3 bedroom 2 bath 1200 sq foot unit from the Irvine company for $2400. With the IC you get professional managemen, pools, tubs etc.





I believe that rental asking prices by condo owners are high right now becasue the owners believe that they will get the asking price that will make them not lose to much money. After the units sit on the market for 6 months or so, they will reduce prices. My guess is that place like this should rent for about $1700.
 
<p>I agree, not even close to the bottom.</p>

<p>This is just the START of the real crash!</p>

<p>The foreclosure #'s are just STARTING to ramp up now.</p>

<p>The credit crunch eliminated 70%+ of CA homebuyers from even being ABLE to buy, if they wanted to... That was just in August!</p>

<p>The sales #'s for August will be out soon, they will be horrid. They will push 'on market' inventory well into YEARS of supply. Sept. will be even worse (due to the locks that were in place for August that were obtained before the lockdown).</p>

<p>Years of inventory + the bank owned (foreclosed) properties exploding + inability to get a loan = the real crash.</p>

<p>COMING SOON!!! 2008!!!</p>

<p>(In all caps with three exclamation points so that realtors will understand)</p>

<p> </p>
 
<p>I noticed the same a couple weeks ago. The primary problem I'm having in equating rent to own is reliable <strong>comparable</strong> rental value. The wishing prices seem to be moving from the MLS to Craigslist as rentals. Outside Irvine, I've watched units sit for months empty as owners, some long-term owners, moved slowly down from $2500 to $2000 after remodeling a place they had been renting for $1800.</p>

<p> </p>
 
I don't recommend buying a 3 bed town home or condo with only 1 full bath. Trust me, I lived in a 3 bed, 1.5 bath town home with my parents before, and having only 1 bath tub/shower upstairs with 3 bedrooms didn't work. Get at least a 3/2 if possible.
 
<p>movingaround,</p>

<p>Your math is correct, but as others have pointed out, the rental numbers may not be right, and there may be other costs associated with the property requiring a deeper discount. However, this pricing is certainly heading in the right direction.</p>
 
<p>There are a couple things to remember:</p>

<p>Traditionally renting from the private landlord is less expensive than renting from a corporate Apartment (for comparables). A huge swath of private rentals were removed from the market by specuvestors cashing in on the boom pushing IAC's and other corporate apartment complexes to near capacity occupency. That in turn drove massive rent increases. This pulled private market rents up too. Making worse is the specuvestors putting units pulled off the rental market in hopes of flips back on but flooding the market with wish rent pricing to minimize their bleeding. This has a reinforcing affect on private landlords as they look at the paper and Craigslist seeing place after place well above their current rent. </p>

<p>In the end, I suspect the rental market rates are going to unwind from a bubble just like property values will. There are a horde of empty properties on the MLS and still sitting in speculators hands, not to mention the REOs. When they return to the market, occupency rates will plummet. You won't see the price reduction in the reports though. The rental reports in the paper only publish the major complexes MSRP rates. Their real rates are not disclosed, nor do they factor concessions such as one month free etc.</p>

<p> </p>
 
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