Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases
- Thread starter Cornflakes
- Start date
Most everybody is going to get this virus. Some small percent are going to die from ARDS/myocarditis regardless of treatment.
We need to avoid unnecessary deaths like Italy's situation aka "Rock, Papers, Scissors" vent selection which means pacing the infection rate aka flattening the curve.
So some variant of a local shutdown/social distancing whatever you call it is necessary but I don't agree with a total shutdown of the entire country.
But this also means you need more supplies (PPEs, vents) and staff to run the vents. Mean duration of intubation for survivors is what, 14 days? Eats up too many resources for this to be "business as usual."
We need to avoid unnecessary deaths like Italy's situation aka "Rock, Papers, Scissors" vent selection which means pacing the infection rate aka flattening the curve.
So some variant of a local shutdown/social distancing whatever you call it is necessary but I don't agree with a total shutdown of the entire country.
But this also means you need more supplies (PPEs, vents) and staff to run the vents. Mean duration of intubation for survivors is what, 14 days? Eats up too many resources for this to be "business as usual."
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
eyephone said:
Well, at 100,000 death ?We are doing a great job? said who???, And if 600,000 projected and 500,000 recorded death, ?We did a great job, it?s only 500,000 counts.? You get it? Whatever he touches, is great. Get it?
Liar Loan
Well-known member
morekaos said:
I saw that as well. Worldometers made this statement:
Due to delayed and incomplete reporting from New York State, we had to make adjustments to yesterday's totals in order to maintain the correct attribution of historical figures. US figures for Sunday, March 29 could still be incomplete.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Cornflakes
Active member
Kenkoko said:1 TI member voted for 10k and 2 TI members voted for less than 5000.
I get being optimistic but that strikes me as delusional.
We are probably going to be near 4000 even before April
Head in the sand >>> Optimist >>> Realist >>> Pessimist >>> Doomsday'er
All of us fall in the spectrum somewhere.
If the data doesn't start behaving real soon, I will be revising my estimate upward. If I had to pick a new number right now it would be 140,000.
My place on the spectrum is data-driven.
I'm mulling what impact the spread of the spread has on total #. Up to now, a few hotspots have been growing rapidly in sheer #s, driving overall count. Those places are taking measures to stem the spread. But many, many other dots on the map are just getting started. The curve is probably the same everywhere, but in the early days no one cares that there's another death every 5 days. But that eventually grows to 1 per day, 2 per day, 3 per day....until it becomes a hot spot. If they start erupting all over then my wildest fears will be a sore underestimation.
My place on the spectrum is data-driven.
I'm mulling what impact the spread of the spread has on total #. Up to now, a few hotspots have been growing rapidly in sheer #s, driving overall count. Those places are taking measures to stem the spread. But many, many other dots on the map are just getting started. The curve is probably the same everywhere, but in the early days no one cares that there's another death every 5 days. But that eventually grows to 1 per day, 2 per day, 3 per day....until it becomes a hot spot. If they start erupting all over then my wildest fears will be a sore underestimation.
160,000
At this rate I'll be upping my prediction every few days until the end of the month, where the reality of over 250,000 dead will be hitting all of us very hard.
The more I think about it, the more I am convinced that typical mathematical growth models will always underestimate the growth #s early on because they cannot take into account the growth of the spread.
At this rate I'll be upping my prediction every few days until the end of the month, where the reality of over 250,000 dead will be hitting all of us very hard.
The more I think about it, the more I am convinced that typical mathematical growth models will always underestimate the growth #s early on because they cannot take into account the growth of the spread.
nosuchreality
Well-known member
I've found not reading talkirvine, facebook after dinner and largely turning the news off after the morning check in, helps a great deal. In fact, I find checking google and CDC via the internet once a day to be much better than the breathless semi-panicked and repetitive reporting on the news. I also find it much calmer to look at the data on the CDC and datas site without all the talking heads.
CDC Provisional Death Counts Covid & All Causes
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm
I saw two on- duty active Riverside deputies died 51 an 52 yo. On set to dead so quick.
This weeks number will be an ugly jump on covid, next week's worse.
Ending on a bright note, watched Onward on Disney+ last night with the family. I thought it was very good and entertaining for the family. Watch it if you've got it. It's a good wind down from the worry of the day.
Edit: fix link
CDC Provisional Death Counts Covid & All Causes
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm
I saw two on- duty active Riverside deputies died 51 an 52 yo. On set to dead so quick.
This weeks number will be an ugly jump on covid, next week's worse.
Ending on a bright note, watched Onward on Disney+ last night with the family. I thought it was very good and entertaining for the family. Watch it if you've got it. It's a good wind down from the worry of the day.
daedalus said:
Edit: fix link
The distancing, work from home and sheltering is paying off. Right after my last post, the daily #s started to slow down.
It took 22 days from the 1st post to get to over 40,000. At this rate will will squeak over 80k in 10 days. Hopefully the measures we're taking snowball into smaller and smaller daily #s. It's possible we could be closer to 60k if we continue to move faster in the right direction.
Hopefully we'll always remember the number that could have been and know that the economic price paid was not without benefit, and that there was going to be an economic price to pay regardless of our actions.
It took 22 days from the 1st post to get to over 40,000. At this rate will will squeak over 80k in 10 days. Hopefully the measures we're taking snowball into smaller and smaller daily #s. It's possible we could be closer to 60k if we continue to move faster in the right direction.
Hopefully we'll always remember the number that could have been and know that the economic price paid was not without benefit, and that there was going to be an economic price to pay regardless of our actions.
aquabliss
Well-known member
Problem is we?ll never know if it was worth it. Who is tracking the deaths from economic depression? Not an easy number to track and doubt we?ll ever have an accurate one. I read of a couple B list celeb suicides this morning where families said the shelter in place orders added to their depression. What about all the diabetes and heart disease that comes out of families not being able to afford healthy food and eating dollar menu McDonald?s 3 times a week. I hope for no starving Americans but this is a real problem in other Midwest states. How about the drug use and OD for all those that end up homeless as a result. Was the economic price paid worth the benefit? We?ll have a better idea in a few years, but guarantee we?ll never know for sure.
It's amazing to see we have collectively shifted the focus off of the gigantic failure to test,trace,and contain.
We would never know the true price paid for not getting our sh*t together and executing the best option which was to test, trace, and contain.
Instead we are arguing over the opportunity cost of picking less sh*tty A over less shitty option B.
Is it the brainwashing of the mainstream media ?
We would never know the true price paid for not getting our sh*t together and executing the best option which was to test, trace, and contain.
Instead we are arguing over the opportunity cost of picking less sh*tty A over less shitty option B.
Is it the brainwashing of the mainstream media ?
qwerty
Well-known member
You have to move on. What is the point of dwelling over test, trace contain?
We need to deal with the present and future. Yes, testing, contain would have helped to potentially slow the spread. But it still would have spread. There is only so much testing, tracing and containing that can be done.
Now it?s time to figure out the best path going forward
We need to deal with the present and future. Yes, testing, contain would have helped to potentially slow the spread. But it still would have spread. There is only so much testing, tracing and containing that can be done.
Now it?s time to figure out the best path going forward
nosuchreality
Well-known member
Yes we do need to move on to figure out the path forward and testing is a huge part of that. Both studies cited on TI show similar results, using the same test and limited study.
While the implied death rate is better but still worse than the flu, the real concerning item in their stats that is being over looked is their implied spread in the general population is an entire years worth of flu infections in a month and a half. NY general data shows similar with 6x annual flu deaths in a month.
While the implied death rate is better but still worse than the flu, the real concerning item in their stats that is being over looked is their implied spread in the general population is an entire years worth of flu infections in a month and a half. NY general data shows similar with 6x annual flu deaths in a month.
qwerty said:
Qwerty do you work in PR? That was expert level sleight of hand, swapping out the loss of trillions of dollars and thousands of lives with ?testing, contain would have helped to potentially slow the spread?
If you were the spokesperson for the White house, less people would be less mad at President Trump
sgip
Well-known member
Perhaps the whole "testing is crucial" is too complex for a civilian like me to grasp. All I know is you can test clear on Monday and catch Coronavirus on a Tuesday. What good then was the test? Also with rapid and multiple testing options, the odds are that everyone will demand testing just because they have a seasonal allergy cough and sniffles. What a terrific waste of materials and time.
Because the Coronavirus is so contagious compared to ordinary flu, it's hard really to quantify comparative death rates. Coronavirus deaths might be 6x normal flu, but we don't shelter in place for normal flu. Had we not been locked down as we are with most other contagious diseases, I'd guess the spread would have been wider, and deaths higher - as seen in the Italian cases. Yes, it's a crushing blow to the economy, but so would 2m deaths as projected by some models.
My .02c
Because the Coronavirus is so contagious compared to ordinary flu, it's hard really to quantify comparative death rates. Coronavirus deaths might be 6x normal flu, but we don't shelter in place for normal flu. Had we not been locked down as we are with most other contagious diseases, I'd guess the spread would have been wider, and deaths higher - as seen in the Italian cases. Yes, it's a crushing blow to the economy, but so would 2m deaths as projected by some models.
My .02c