Will Barack Obama be our next President?

IrvineRenter_IHB

IrvineRenter_IHB

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During the Great Depression, the last time the nation witnessed house price declines on the scale we are seeing now, America turned to a new president for hope. Franklin Roosevelt gave radio addresses known as “<a linkindex="13" href="http://www.mhric.org/fdr/fdr.html">fireside chats</a>.” He used these chats to outline his policy programs (many of which made the depression worse,) but the primary service President Roosevelt provided the nation was the dispensing of hope. There was not much the President or anyone else could do about the problems of the Great Depression, just as there is not much anyone can do about the Great Housing Bubble. Franklin Roosevelt’s chats during the Great Depression and Ronald Reagan’s speeches during the worst of the recession of the early 1980s gave Americans comfort and hope. If we are in a deep recession at election time (which seems likely,) our next President will be called on to do the same. The election will become less about issues and intellectual competence and more about inspiration and emotional comfort. People vote for emotional reasons; people want to believe in their leaders and be inspired by them. When <a href="http://www.barackobama.com/index.php">Barack Obama</a> wrote “The Audacity of Hope,” he hoped to inspire a generation with his words. Given the sorry state of our national economy, Americans may turn to this man, not because he is the best qualified to be President, but because is the best at dispensing hope.
 
<p>This presumes he wins the nomination. Which is no safe bet, considering his latest poll numbers are going the wrong way. Remember, FDR wasn't elected until 3 years after the Crash of '29. America had 3 years to stew in the Depression before "hope" came along. Obama doesn't have that kind of time and, unless we get slammed in the next two months, his message of hope is going to get buried under the detailed plans Clinton will be offering as a solution. As a political tactic, 'hope' only works when you have nothing left, as in 1980 and 1932.</p>
 
There's not a whole lot Clinton can do at this point to win the nomination, so the poll numbers aren't all that important when it comes down to the nomination.





Whether or not Obama can win the general, I have my doubts. McCain is winning so overwhelmingly in whites and he'll probably win a nice chunk of the Latinos...





I'm not allowing myself to get my hopes up.
 
<p>I'll say it again... I DON'T trust CLINTON. Does anybody really believe she WON'T be like her husband? I bet she'll make back room deals as she can.</p>

<p>Also, lets not forget that Clinton has given away a LARGE amount of our military technology to China in consideration for their buying stuff from his constituent companies.... </p>

<p>Frankly the Dems will make a very, VERY bad mistake and FORCE many people to vote against her. Anyway good luck</p>

<p>-bix</p>
 
You got to admit that the democrats are either very brave or very reckless trying to make history by trying to elect the first woman or African American as President of America.
 
<p>I'd like to point out that; any of the 3 candidates would probably do a better job than the current president. </p>

<p>Or so I hope....</p>
 
I run hot and cold on Obama's prospects. His unifying message is certain good at drawing support from independents and the previously non-political. But, he really means it and so when people like Wright get caught saying some pretty offensive stuff he just disavows the specific statement and refuses to throws them under the bus. I think like Obama does but most Americans want blood for even mildly impugning the US.<p>



Besides his inspirational message, I like him because he has the best plan for dealing with the <a href="http://www.barackobama.com/issues/economy/#home-ownership">housing mess</a>. He's been proposing laws against mortgage fraud for 2 years. Hillary wants a 3 month foreclosure moratorium - now that's a recipe for disaster. McCain doesn't even *have* a plan - I guess he's waiting for the free market pony to give us all a ride.
 
While I "hope" Barack can become the next president, I don't think the majority of the American people as a whole is ready to accept a black president, much less a black president with a <a href="http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/02/28/MNKGVABG8.DTL">Muslim sounding name</a> like Barack Obama. At least <a href="http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/WSJ-20080312-poll.pdf">13% in the recent WSJ poll </a>mistakenly believe Obama is Muslim.





I think you may be giving the American people a little too much credit (ask the subprime lenders - Hiyo!!). Ya know, the ones who bought houses with money that they didn't have (thus spawning this blog), thought invading Iraq was the right thing to do, and made American Idol the most popular TV program in years.





This is why Barack won't win:


1) He's black


2) His name is Barack Obama.


3) White guys are afraid of him. (Winex thinks he's "dangerous.")





This is why Hillary won't win:


1) She's a woman.


2) She's "unlikeable."


3) White guys are afraid of her.





This is why McCain will win:


1) He's a guy.


2) He's white.


3) He has a "normal" American name.


4) No one will accuse him of being Muslim.


5) White guys think he could be their war hero dad or grandpa. Or at the very least, a guy they could share a beer with.


6) Despite all the right wing bluster around McCain not being "conservative" enough, they WILL vote for McCain to keep Barack and Hillary out of office.





Goooooo Democracy!
 
The main reason I think McCain will probably not win the election is the toxicity of Republicans in general is still high after the 107th Congress and the Bush tenure. This will be a particularly difficult obstacle to overcome if the economy is very bad come November because the Republicans will receive most of the blame (I am not arguing they deserve it, but they will receive it.)
 
I know one conservative couple that voted has voted Republican since Reagan who has told me they will vote for Obama if he gets the nom. They like his message of unity. That gives me hope.
 
<p>Thats called an Obamacan. Republicans for Obama.</p>

<p>Normally Political threads tend to get a bit heated. Especially when the ultra right starts ranting. </p>

<p>But I will throw my 2 Cents at the thread. I too as an Independent for the last 2 Elections support Obama and have registered as a Dem. this time. Its not that he has the most experience. Its that he has the attitude and the perceived ethics to do the job I have not seen since the Kennedy Era. Oops I tipped my age. The issue of Black and White is meaningless. I watched his speech about race the other day. Classic line when he mentioned his White Grandmother using racial epitaphs. The race issue is almost the same watching someone like Tiger Woods. He has transended the subject of race and with his attitude and professional skills. No one would dare to be foolish enough to try to play the race card with him or his wife.</p>

<p>I do wish Obama the best of luck. But it is an uphill battle. Hillary Clinton is going to fight and use every political trick in the book and saddly that hurts the Dems and gives McCain the advantage at least for now. Time will tell and the young people voting for the first time will help Obama. I also think the War in Iraq will hurt Senator McCain in the General Election. Time will tell. The Democratic Convention in Denver should be some good entertainment this year !</p>

<p> </p>

<p> </p>

<p> </p>
 
<p>I mentioned this on the Ron Paul thread, but I freely admit that I was very impressed by his speech on race. Will it be enough to get my vote? Probably not by itself, but if it was combined with an equally frank plan then it could be enough to override my objections to his liberal agenda because I consider adressing racial issues to be of a larger importance.</p>

<p>So far, I have yet to see more than a speech.</p>
 
<em>The issue of Black and White is meaningless. I watched his speech about race the other day. Classic line when he mentioned his White Grandmother using racial epitaphs. The race issue is almost the same watching someone like Tiger Woods. He has transended the subject of race and with his attitude and professional skills. No one would dare to be foolish enough to try to play the race card with him or his wife.</em>





Of course no one in the Republican mainstream is going to say outright that "don't vote for Obama because he's black." However, as they say, there is more than one way to skin a cat. Play up the Muslim origins of Obama's name, preying on the current American xenophobia felt toward Muslims. Call Obama "dangerous" because one of his confidants seems to associate with attitudes that recall the black power movements in the 60s. Those tactics serve to undermine one of Barack's greatest strengths - personifying progressive change by being a mixed race person - by selectively exaggerating the parts of his identity that are unpalatable to white voters.





Race is one of those taboo issues that white America generally has swept under the rug and declared over with. It's not that simple. Stephen Colbert captures this idea brilliantly by declaring that he "doesn't see color," while actively courting a "new black friend." While Loving v. Virginia's decision declared state anti-miscegenation laws unconstitutional about 40 years ago, interracial relationships are still actively discouraged and looked down upon in parts of the country. Bob Jones University, for example, dropped its prohibition on interracial dating only 8 years ago.
 
<p>Frankly, I find it funny that Obama got tagged with the Rev's hate message. IMHO, Obama has been playing the race card continuously and effectively since the beginning. If you question his qualifications he turns it into a race issue and accuses the person of being devisive and politics as usual.</p>

<p> </p>

<p>As for MD, it's playing the race card too. Playing the fear card and implying not voting for Obama or Clinton means you're racist. Yes racist because you're not voting for them because you're closet afraid of them.</p>

<p> </p>

<p>As for Obama, I won't vote for him unless he changes and has a plan instead of just idealistic words. I really dislike McCain, but I still won't vote for Obama unless he really starts telling the truth instead of the continuous lipservice to hollow ideals with no plans. In the end, I fear ungrounded idealism more than corrupt mainstreamism. The reason is simple,the result is Jim Jones or the status quo.</p>
 
<em>"Play up the Muslim origins of Obama's name, preying on the current American xenophobia felt toward Muslims. Call Obama "dangerous" because one of his confidants seems to associate with attitudes that recall the black power movements in the 60s."</em>





These things will work well in the South, but Obama isn't going to carry any Southern states anyway. In our current electoral college breakdown, the South is solidly Republican, so race baiting will just be preaching to the choir. I don't think some of those tactics will work well outside of the south with independent voters who will likely determine the outcome of this election.





Another thing Obama has going for him is that he is the antithesis of George Bush. If America has any desire to mend fences around the world, electing a black man who was openly against the Iraq war with a name like Barack Obama would be a major step forward. Electing another white guy with a military background is not the road to reconciliation, unless you think McCain will be a "Nixon to China" kind of thing.
 
<em>Playing the fear card and implying not voting for Obama or Clinton means you're racist. Yes racist because you're not voting for them because you're closet afraid of them.





As for Obama, I won't vote for him unless he changes and has a plan instead of just idealistic words. I really dislike McCain, but I still won't vote for Obama unless he really starts telling the truth instead of the continuous lipservice to hollow ideals with no plans. In the end, I fear ungrounded idealism more than corrupt mainstreamism. The reason is simple,the result is Jim Jones or the status quo.





</em>NSR, I find it ironic that you point out that I play the "fear" card, and yet you conflate Barack's "ungrounded idealism" with perhaps a slippery slope toward the Jonestown Massacre. I also find it interesting that you would pick Jim Jones out of the batsh*t religious megalomaniac basket. Why not more recent cult leaders like David Koresh or Warren Jeffs?
 
muffdaddy, It pains me to see the blind ignorance you're spouting on this thread.





Hilary won't win because she's a woman? Obama won't win because he's black? People think he's Muslim and therefore will not vote for him?





How big of a sexist, racist bigot can you be?





Whats wrong with a woman president? A black president? A Muslim president? An Asian president? Jesus F-ing Christ man...are you a troll or just that ignorant?





You should be ashamed for your comments. People give their lives each and every day for this country, to offer the rest of us freedom, liberty and equality, and so that everyone in this country can can contribute what they have to the betterment of society. To discount people, their potential, and their worth based on gender or race is intolerant.
 
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