Widespread Declines According to S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Indices

[ipoplaya_IHB]

I expanded the calculation of my "IPO-Shiller" index to cover all reported closes I have and came up with a value of around 214 for February and March sales:

http://www.ipoplaya.com/iposhiller.mht

The compositional mix of March closes brought the average up as there were more sales in newer areas that have been holding up better on average...

We are in July/August 2004 territory right now on average.

 

[Anonymous_IHB]

See bottom graph attibuted to IrrationalExuberance.com by http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/18/opinion/18tabarrok.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

 

[ipoplaya_IHB]

At least for the small sample set I am tracking, the March CS index average number for Irvine/Tustin has moved below the February average:

http://www.ipoplaya.com/iposhiller.mht

Recent closes, even in Northpark, which had been holding a decent premium, are at mid 2004 price levels...

 

[ipoplaya_IHB]

January Case-Shiller data release:

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/CSHomePrice_Release_032544.pdf

LA metro area showing a 3.7% decrease for the month of January...

The tiered data for the LA MSA is interesting. For the lower and middle tiers, price declines off peak have been 21% and 20% respectively. The upper tier, which are homes $673K and above, is only off 14% or so from peak as of January.

 

[ipoplaya_IHB]

My Case-Shiller Irvine numbers moved to http://www.ipoplaya.com/iposhiller.pdf