Widespread Declines According to S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Indices

[mediaboyz_IHB]

Widespread Declines According to S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Indices

LA area down 13.7% YOY with declines seeming to accelerate...Oct/Nov down 3.6% and Nov/Dec down 3.1%.

<a target="_blank" href="http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/CSHomePrice_Release_022603.pdf">http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/CSHomePrice_Release_022603.pdf</a>

 

[Nude_IHB]

That's a pretty chart... pretty effen ugly.

 

[WINEX_IHB]

Actually that's year over year, not year to date. But 13.7% is still a big drop.

 

[mediaboyz_IHB]

Thanks Winex - corrected YTD --> YOY

 

[IrvineRenter_IHB]

S&P/Case-Shiller National 1987-2007

 

[IrvineRenter_IHB]

S&P/Case-Shiller Los Angeles 1987-2007

 

[Daedalus_IHB]

IR, are those inflation adjusted?

 

[IrvineRenter_IHB]

No, those are raw index numbers.

You can read about the methodology here.

 

[IrvineRenter_IHB]

A quick look at those charts will give you some idea how far prices have yet to fall.

 

[lawyerliz_IHB]

Miami is down 17%, and still nothing is selling.

 

[bigmoneysalsa_IHB]

And from the monthly index, LA is at 233.03 as of Dec 2007. Down 14.9% from peak.

 

[ipoplaya_IHB]

 

[ipoplaya_IHB]

"IR, are those inflation adjusted?"

This one is, if I did it right:

 

[Nude_IHB]

Ipop, that looks like a cross section of the west coast of Chile.

 

[ipoplaya_IHB]

Picky, picky, picky... Not gonna make it pretty when I whipped it up in five minutes.

 

[IrvineRenter_IHB]

It will be interesting to see inflation adjusted declines in a few years when we are closer to the bottom. I suspect we will see 70% to 80% declines on an inflation adjusted basis.

 

[ipoplaya_IHB]

Oh sure, Nude gets a thanks for cracking on my lovely Chile graph and I get zippo... What a tough crowd this is!

 

[Daedalus_IHB]

Bro, you gotta let it sit for more than an hour. Some of us bitter owners have a lot of work to do around the house.

 

[ipoplaya_IHB]

You'll get a kick out of this IR - maybe...

I took 10 recent sales in Irvine and applied the Case-Shiller valuation methodology, at least what I think it is, and came up with an average value of 210.585. That is almost 10% below the December number! Wowzer.

Tell me if this is right if you will:

I took the CS index value of the month the home previously sold in, calculated the multiple/ratio of the recent selling price vs. the previous sales price, and then applied that multiple to the index value at the time of previous sale to derive the current index value:

Previous Sale Date

Previous Sale Price

Current Sale Price

Previous Sale CS

Current Sale CS

ravendale

2-May-02

$544,500.00

$920,000.00

128.73

217.51

galena

2-May-02

$556,500.00

$936,000.00

128.73

216.52

teardrop

1-Jan-06

$968,500.00

$859,000.00

265.92

235.85

emerald

1-Sep-04

$1,200,000.00

$1,212,000.00

215.08

217.23

atlanta

18-Dec-01

$385,000.00

$640,000.00

120.65

200.56

kernville

4-Dec-02

$740,000.00

$1,159,000.00

143.26

224.38

hawkcreek

1-Sep-05

$730,000.00

$615,000.00

255.85

215.54

mineral

1-Sep-00

$360,000.00

$645,000.00

108.94

195.18

rhode

23-Jun-98

$385,500.00

$920,000.00

86.97

207.55

parma

1-Jun-01

$570,000.00

$859,000.00

116.47

175.52

Average

210.59

 

[IrvineRenter_IHB]

Your calculation looks correct to me. The Case-Shiller methodology does have a few tweaks to round outliers, and of course, they are looking at a broader area, but I suspect your number will be close to theirs when it is published.