Who's buying now?

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norcaljeff_IHB

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Where are all those posters asking why we haven't bought? Where are you guys? lol I guess you don't read the financial parts of your paper. Who would want to own RE right now? It will only follow stocks to the bottom. There are millions of people who were already in debt only to see their stock or retirement accounts evaporate. How long will it take to get back to the market highs of 2006? 1 generation? 2? Maybe longer? Who's gonna buy in Irvine? I know, I know "Irvine has a lot of rich people, good schools, jobs, etc." Well that all changed in the past 6 weeks. You think those hedge fund manager on Wall Street are still buying $30M apartments? Second homes? Hell no, they are looking for work! 2/3s of them will crater, maybe more, so where's that money now? It sure isn't in the bank. Citi is now below $5. Buffet is taking a bath as well. No one is immune in this environment folks. Oh yea, forgot about the oil millionaires all going out buying new homes and toys....NOPE! That $107 oil premium is gone, and still falling. Those Google dot commers coming to the rescue? Nope! That's gone too. People living paycheck to pay check who lose one of those pay checks and they take the whole neighborhood down.



So, why aren't you buying? lol :)
 
[quote author="norcaljeff" date=1227249987]Where are all those posters asking why we haven't bought? Where are you guys? lol I guess you don't read the financial parts of your paper. Who would want to own RE right now? It will only follow stocks to the bottom. There are millions of people who were already in debt only to see their stock or retirement accounts evaporate. How long will it take to get back to the market highs of 2006? 1 generation? 2? Maybe longer? Who's gonna buy in Irvine? I know, I know "Irvine has a lot of rich people, good schools, jobs, etc." Well that all changed in the past 6 weeks. You think those hedge fund manager on Wall Street are still buying $30M apartments? Second homes? Hell no, they are looking for work! 2/3s of them will crater, maybe more, so where's that money now? It sure isn't in the bank. Citi is now below $5. Buffet is taking a bath as well. No one is immune in this environment folks. Oh yea, forgot about the oil millionaires all going out buying new homes and toys....NOPE! That $107 oil premium is gone, and still falling. Those Google dot commers coming to the rescue? Nope! That's gone too. People living paycheck to pay check who lose one of those pay checks and they take the whole neighborhood down.



So, why aren't you buying? lol :)</blockquote>


I'm not buying yet because prices haven't been falling in Irvine for the better part of a year... I will own here, hopefully sooner rather than later.
 
Prices have been falling, sorry I have been memorizing Irvine prices for the last 5 years, I should know. It's the Schiller index that Ipoplaya calculated that are not down.
 
[quote author="WestparkRenter" date=1227252994]Prices have been falling, sorry I have been memorizing Irvine prices for the last 5 years, I should know. It's the Schiller index that Ipoplaya calculated that are not down.</blockquote>


I?m with you on this and agree about the declines.

Ipop means well, it just takes him a while.

He?s still wearing Polo (Green Bottle), know what I mean?
 
[quote author="WestparkRenter" date=1227252994]Prices have been falling, sorry I have been memorizing Irvine prices for the last 5 years, I should know. It's the Schiller index that Ipoplaya calculated that are not down.</blockquote>


I wish my math was coming out the same as your perception WPR...
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1227255603][quote author="WestparkRenter" date=1227252994]Prices have been falling, sorry I have been memorizing Irvine prices for the last 5 years, I should know. It's the Schiller index that Ipoplaya calculated that are not down.</blockquote>


I wish my math was coming out the same as your perception WPR...</blockquote>


I even remember the price before I came down to Irvine, my realtor said to wait for Spring 2004 because there will more listings. From Nov 2003 to Mar of 2004 all of the sudden everyting popped up 50%.

BTW, I talked to a few people that were gunho into buying property last year, they seem to be saying prices are too high, so who's buying.
 
Someone is buying... or escrows wouldn't be closing and IPO and usc would still be in their condos.



And also... November/December tends to be the slowest time of the year for sales.
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1227257281]Someone is buying... or escrows wouldn't be closing and IPO and usc would still be in their condos.



And also... November/December tends to be the slowest time of the year for sales.</blockquote>


You better hope so, aren't you selling?
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1227257281]Someone is buying... or escrows wouldn't be closing and IPO and usc would still be in their condos.



And also... November/December tends to be the slowest time of the year for sales.</blockquote>
There's still enough cash rich knife catchers out there to carry Irvine for a bit more, but sooner or rater Irvine has to take a hit just like all the surrounding cities.
 
[quote author="High Gravity" date=1227258767][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1227258620] sooner or rater Irvine has to take a hit </blockquote>


Ethnic pun?</blockquote>
Haha Nope, typo.
 
[quote author="SoCal78" date=1227252695]I literally would not buy today if I won the lotto.</blockquote>


That's the smartest thing I've read in a long time :)
 
Granted it wasn't Irvine, but we bought this year, closed in May. Had I known what I know now, we would have waited. Financially, we would be in a much better position if we were still in our dirt cheap rental in CDM and the $4K deposit I didn't want to lose when I first came here would have been better off forfeited. But, I'm here on this board, the rest of the county isn't. Had it not been for all you grumpy pessimistic bears, we would have just bought the house and thought life was wonderful.



You see, we were one of those couples who had been itching to own, but refused to pay the prices in '05-'07. Yeah, we could have bought something back then where we could have even afforded the actual note, but we weren't about to trade down and sacfrice what you had to for a POS house or a condo. So, we were so psyched when an SFR was actually affordable, less than what a condo would have cost.



My point is that there are many more of us out there and there isn't a plethora of news saying it's stupid to buy right now. It's only here and really reading between the lines of economic and RE articles that will make many people think that it's better to wait. Most of us are just average people, above average in our speciality, but just average when it comes to interpreting the economy and the direction of the RE market.



My husband and I are both quite intelligent human beings who both read a lot and we bought this year. I think there are more people like us out there who just want own a home and finallly can than all the bears here think. The IHB thinking, while very insightful and full of analysis, is really the minority. The majority see a home they can finally afford and jump on it.
 
[quote author="tenmagnet" date=1227258130][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1227257281]Someone is buying... or escrows wouldn't be closing and IPO and usc would still be in their condos.



And also... November/December tends to be the slowest time of the year for sales.</blockquote>


You better hope so, aren't you selling?</blockquote>
These are not the droids you are looking for.
 
I was seriously looking for a place in Turtle Ridge for about 1M. I have now called off the search. I made a couple of offers and the sellers are living in Fantasyland. I will keep an eye on the market but I will probably buy next winter for 20-25% less than now. I don't think that most people realize the magnitude of how bad that this economy is going to get. 10% unemployment in So Cal is knocking on the door. My wife and I are sponsoring two famalies this year for the holidays. The church that does this said they have had 5X the amount of calls as last year. In a year 2008 will look like a picnic. One more thing that I don't think that I've seen anybody talk about. I put my down payment (350K) in cds and money markets about 18 months ago. My friends said that I should keep it in the market. Yeh right. But how many people who were looking a few months ago had a large percentage of their down payment sitting in the market. Those buyers will not be able to buy until the market fully recovers which could be many many years. This is another piece of the puzzle that says this housing market will get much worse. I think we will see another 20% minimum drop in the Irvine housing market. My two cents.
 
[quote author="hbguybill" date=1227439232]I was seriously looking for a place in Turtle Ridge for about 1M. I have now called off the search. I made a couple of offers and the sellers are living in Fantasyland. I will keep an eye on the market but I will probably buy next winter for 20-25% less than now. I don't think that most people realize the magnitude of how bad that this economy is going to get. 10% unemployment in So Cal is knocking on the door. My wife and I are sponsoring two famalies this year for the holidays. The church that does this said they have had 5X the amount of calls as last year. In a year 2008 will look like a picnic. One more thing that I don't think that I've seen anybody talk about. I put my down payment (350K) in cds and money markets about 18 months ago. My friends said that I should keep it in the market. Yeh right. But how many people who were looking a few months ago had a large percentage of their down payment sitting in the market. Those buyers will not be able to buy until the market fully recovers which could be many many years. This is another piece of the puzzle that says this housing market will get much worse. I think we will see another 20% minimum drop in the Irvine housing market. My two cents.</blockquote>
We don't put any money in the market that we will need withing 5 years.

It's CDs for us.

I think that's the general rule (I could be wrong).
 
<a href="http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-foodbank23-2008nov23,0,6313298.story">http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-foodbank23-2008nov23,0,6313298.story</a>
 
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