Who are all these buyers?

irvinehomeowner said:
2. Loan not price:
...If a household makes $200k and they buy a $1mil house with a $400k loan, that's only 2x as opposed to 4x. Not to mention all those 100% cash down transactions in Irvine! ;)
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I agree. Wouldn't that also support my theory that there is a substantial amount of cash down payments being made? I mentioned that the "need" to make cash down payments was largely because that is what it would take to make a home affordable. So if someone can put down $500,000 on a $600,000 house, a $100,000 mortgage should be no great problem for anyone in Orange County to handle, by a long shot.

That's why I am really curious what the demographic makeup is of the buyers...if there is a trend....

I understand some sold at the top of the bubble, and some make 2X, 3X, 4X, 10X whatever the true median income is, but honestly, how many people can that possibly be? Is there really enough people as outliers on the far outside edge of the Bell Curve in income and savings rates to not only have all the cash for the down payment, but actually want to live in Irvine over everywhere else they could obviously afford to live in? (And as waitin4ever mentioned seem to be choices mostly between condos and duplexes, some houses).

Or is there a demographic, as I suggest, that earns smack inside the middle of the Bell Curve, but are just more accustomed to saving instead of spending and have, over time, accumulated large amounts of cash even based on what we might consider healthy but relatively average incomes for this area?
 
My point is that the median home price in Irvine will buy you a large 3-bedroom attached condo or a small 3-bedroom detached condo.  Good luck finding a 4-bedroom home with 2,000/sf built after 1990 anywhere near the median price.  In most other cities in OC, you can actually buy a detached home for the median price (due to lower pricing and lower condo count).

waitin4ever said:
USC what was your point. were you saying that the prices in irvine are even more unbelievable because
they are so much more than median income calculation despite being condo's!!!.


USCTrojanCPA said:
CTNative said:
The I-R-V said:
"...Asians don't necessarily have better FICO scores, income, etc... There are plenty of those living in Garden Grove, Westminster, Fo Valley, Tustin, etc that are Asians who don't fit your stereotype.  Those buying in Irvine in general need to have better credit and more money than your average OC resident and I don't see a pattern based on race."
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Asians do in fact have higher FICO scores and are more likely to qualify for a mortgage loan than whites, blacks or Latinos. Again, not saying this is a bad thing; it just is what it is. We don't hear about it in the media much because it has no political value. Asian-Americans are too small a group in the U.S. to be used yet as political pawns in class warfare elections. I'm sure that will change at some point. Right now it's more popular to keep the black-white thing going.

From Thomas Sowell, "What Constitutes Discrimination", July 8, 2009:

"The same notion ? and the same confusion ? applies in many other situations. If a higher proportion of blacks than whites get turned down for mortgage loans, then that too can be taken as evidence of racial discrimination.

It doesn?t matter if blacks and whites are different on innumerable factors that go into mortgage loan decisions, as are Hispanics or Asian Americans as well.

All these groups have different credit scores, different incomes, and many other differences. Why is it surprising that they have different loan-approval rates? While the issue is often posed in terms of whites versus non-whites, whites also get turned down for mortgage loans more often than Asian Americans, who usually have higher credit scores."

On a different subject, I know I cited $111,000 as the income for Irvine households specifically, but the income for Orange County households is only $74,862 (U.S. Census Bureau-2008). So where a house is supposed to cost 3X gross income, for your typical Orange County household a $600K house is 8X their income. Just seems so hard to believe that there are enough $200K+ earners in a county where the median household income is only $74K that all want to live in Irvine. It would seem like they are ALL moving to Irvine.

Please also see my response (Reply #11) to "traceimage" above as it addresses some of your other comments...
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You miss one very important point, the majority of housing in Irvine are condos (which have lower sales prices). 
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CTNative said:
irvinehomeowner said:
2. Loan not price:
...If a household makes $200k and they buy a $1mil house with a $400k loan, that's only 2x as opposed to 4x. Not to mention all those 100% cash down transactions in Irvine! ;)
Click to expand...

I agree. Wouldn't that also support my theory that there is a substantial amount of cash down payments being made? I mentioned that the "need" to make cash down payments was largely because that is what it would take to make a home affordable. So if someone can put down $500,000 on a $600,000 house, a $100,000 mortgage should be no great problem for anyone in Orange County to handle, by a long shot.

That's why I am really curious what the demographic makeup is of the buyers...if there is a trend....

I understand some sold at the top of the bubble, and some make 2X, 3X, 4X, 10X whatever the true median income is, but honestly, how many people can that possibly be? Is there really enough people as outliers on the far outside edge of the Bell Curve in income and savings rates to not only have all the cash for the down payment, but actually want to live in Irvine over everywhere else they could obviously afford to live in? (And as waitin4ever mentioned seem to be choices mostly between condos and duplexes, some houses).

Or is there a demographic, as I suggest, that earns smack inside the middle of the Bell Curve, but are just more accustomed to saving instead of spending and have, over time, accumulated large amounts of cash even based on what we might consider healthy but relatively average incomes for this area?
Click to expand...
I'm sure I'm not going out on a limb when I say this, but the large downpayments and all cash buyers are keeping Irvine prices as high as they are.  If you look at cities like Aliso Viejo, Foothill Ranch, Mission Viejo, Anaheim Hills, Yorba Linda, etc you'll see lower average downpayments and very few all cash buyers around the median home price range.
 
I don't think Irvine home price will get better for the next 50 years ..... the Chinese will  keep coming with cash to do grocery(home) shopping.

A Chinese couple were looking to buy a million dollar home with 4 beds and baths on Christmas day and wonder why no one is selling on that day :'(
They pointed at those under construction Carmel 2 houses and wonder if they can buy one of those on that day :'(

Only 1% of the 1,330,141,295 Chinese in China are rich (133,014,129) and if 0.001% of them or their children (133,014) want to buy a house in Irvine... That only China Chinese, what if 5% are rich and 0.001% of that 5% want to buy a home in Irvine.

I think at least 50% of the new 2010 home buyers are Asian and 25% are Chinese .... the % will only get higher as the news have spread across the ocean about Irvine and more will be coming. If you want to know the answer, walk around the new home neighborhood and talk to the Asian and they will tell you the home in Irvine is CHEAP and many own more than one in Irvine.

I cry every night wondering how those people can afford to buy those 10 million dollars home in Newport .......






 






 
USCTrojanCPA said:
I'm sure I'm not going out on a limb when I say this, but the large downpayments and all cash buyers are keeping Irvine prices as high as they are.  If you look at cities like Aliso Viejo, Foothill Ranch, Mission Viejo, Anaheim Hills, Yorba Linda, etc you'll see lower average downpayments and very few all cash buyers around the median home price range.
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Myself and surely many others would second you on this. As an Asian I was asked by a bank agent at one of the builder sales offices if I was planning to make a cash purchase.  ;)

A gravy train of cash buyers is great for Irvine real estate...as long as we'll see this continue well into the future, or conventional buyers come back into the market to replace them if they decide to leave real estate for equities or other investments...or simply don't see things as rosy for RE as they did before. Of course, this could be balanced out from builders putting new developments on hold.
 
I don't understand why a rich Chinese person who has servants, and no language barrier in his homeland would want to come to Irvine and buy a house. So he can buy his own groceries and cut his own grass?
 
If you saw the conditions in China from all perspectives - economic, social, political, religious, et al, perhaps taking some of your funds off the table and heading towards another country would be in your families best interests. Many people assume that being rich in China is just grand. It might be akin to being the tallest midget at the carnival. 

They are voting with their feet by coming here.

My .02c

Soylent Green Is People.
 
Yeah that one-child argument would make sense if we're talking about a poor, destitute rural farmer. But that guy isn't going to buy a house in Irvine anytime soon.

The rich chinese people just pay the fine every year, and have 10 kids if they want (the average is around 3 for the upper 1% who do have children in China).
 
sgip said:
If you saw the conditions in China from all perspectives - economic, social, political, religious, et al, perhaps taking some of your funds off the table and heading towards another country would be in your families best interests. Many people assume that being rich in China is just grand. It might be akin to being the tallest midget at the carnival. 

They are voting with their feet by coming here.

My .02c

Soylent Green Is People.
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You sound like someone who has never been to China. I go to China for business 8-9 times a year. Your point would be true if we were talking about Guizhou, but the rich chinese don't live in Guizhou.

Shanghai has a higher average standard of living (based on median salary, housing affordability, educational attainment, etc) than any city in California (including San Francisco), and best of all, Shanghai isn't bankrupt like California is. It's laughable to think a rich chinese person from Shanghai, one of the most economically vibrant cities in the world, would move to bankrupt California to "escape" some imaginary hell hole that racist non-Chinese assume China to be.
 
At some point in time the race card would be jacked out. Regrettably it was sooner rather than later.

My first post in this thread offended some. My apologies for any hurt feelings.

You could substitute any nationality for China and Chinese and the thought is still the same. If a German wanted to flee Hamburg because they see the collapse of the Euro coming and decided to buy in Westpark, they still are voting with their feet. Perhaps if a Coptic Christian wanted to leave Alexandria because of religious persecution and purchased in Northpark, they are still saying something about their belief about the conditions in their home country. Still yet, one can also point to the loss of 108,000 people from Orange County in 2010 who fled to Utah, Texas, Washington and points unknown because of the "state of the State" here.

The rich German, the affluent Egyptian, and wealthy former Orange County dweller probably looks back at their homeland thinking I'm glad I'm no longer the tallest midget at that carnival.  Every country has their problems. I'm not here to say that the United States is flawless. There's a great deal of "China envy" out there which I'm guessing is reciprocal - there may be plenty of people everywhere else saying there's no better place to be than the US.  Time will tell which view is right. For now, given immigration trends, it seems that more people want to come here than leave.  That's not racist. It's statistics.

My .02c

Soylent Green Is People.
 
IndieDev said:
Yeah that one-child argument would make sense if we're talking about a poor, destitute rural farmer. But that guy isn't going to buy a house in Irvine anytime soon.

The rich chinese people just pay the fine every year, and have 10 kids if they want (the average is around 3 for the upper 1% who do have children in China).
Click to expand...
Maybe they want their 1 to 3 children to have a more "open" education?

IUSD FTW!
 
Yeah that makes sense. Instead of 1 on 1 private teaching from a PhD, they should put their children into the "35 per classroom" IUSD where they'll absorb half of the material of their peers due to language barriers.  :p
 
sgip said:
At some point in time the race card would be jacked out. Regrettably it was sooner rather than later.

My first post in this thread offended some. My apologies for any hurt feelings.

You could substitute any nationality for China and Chinese and the thought is still the same. If a German wanted to flee Hamburg because they see the collapse of the Euro coming and decided to buy in Westpark, they still are voting with their feet. Perhaps if a Coptic Christian wanted to leave Alexandria because of religious persecution and purchased in Northpark, they are still saying something about their belief about the conditions in their home country. Still yet, one can also point to the loss of 108,000 people from Orange County in 2010 who fled to Utah, Texas, Washington and points unknown because of the "state of the State" here.

The rich German, the affluent Egyptian, and wealthy former Orange County dweller probably looks back at their homeland thinking I'm glad I'm no longer the tallest midget at that carnival.  Every country has their problems. I'm not here to say that the United States is flawless. There's a great deal of "China envy" out there which I'm guessing is reciprocal - there may be plenty of people everywhere else saying there's no better place to be than the US.  Time will tell which view is right. For now, given immigration trends, it seems that more people want to come here than leave.  That's not racist. It's statistics.

My .02c

Soylent Green Is People.
Click to expand...

More random drivel with vague references to "Germans" and net U.S immigration, but not actually addressing the topic of rich Chinese people buying real estate in Irvine.

The internet.
 
IndieDev said:
Yeah that makes sense. Instead of 1 on 1 private teaching from a PhD, they should put their children into the "35 per classroom" IUSD where they'll absorb half of the material of their peers due to language barriers.  :p
Click to expand...
Yeah, but that one PHD will only teach them what the PRC wants him to teach them*. Chinese kids love Justin Bieber too (luckily graphrix lives in the USofA).

*I have no idea if that's true, just feeding into the China stereotype of controlled education.
 
Actually this is my third wave of Asian influx buyers. During the late 1980's I helped quite a few Japanese to relocate to the United States. During the 1990's we financed wave after wave of FCB, mostly from Hong Kong and Shanghai purchase homes in the Hacienda Heights / Walnut area. My Mandarin skills are very thin now, but I still have a few banking contacts overseas who assisted in the transfer of funds from one continent to another. I'd say 1/4 of my borrowing clients today are Asian.

There aren't specific singular reasons for people relocating here - no matter the ethnicity. You have to look at general trends first, hoping to spot themes along the way.

My .02c

Soylent Green Is People
 
irvinehomeowner said:
IndieDev said:
Yeah that makes sense. Instead of 1 on 1 private teaching from a PhD, they should put their children into the "35 per classroom" IUSD where they'll absorb half of the material of their peers due to language barriers.  :p
Click to expand...
Yeah, but that one PHD will only teach them what the PRC wants him to teach them*. Chinese kids love Justin Bieber too (luckily graphrix lives in the USofA).

*I have no idea if that's true, just feeding into the China stereotype of controlled education.
Click to expand...

Being uneducated about something is forgivable.

The rich in China live like kings, I've seen it first hand. They listen to whatever music they want, browse whatever websites they want, and can read any material they want. The Chinese government is corrupt like no other, and for rich people, that's a huge benefit to living in China. One child laws, zoning permits, and just about any municipal law mean nothing to rich Chinese. Money talks even louder in China than it does in the U.S. I never pay for airfare, a single luxury hotel room, a meal at a restaurant run by Michelin star Chefs, whenever I am in China for business.

I just don't see why someone rich living in a place where they are waited upon hand and foot by the low and high, would come to "Irvine" and buy a 2,400 sqft home with a 3,000 sqft lot, and shop for their own groceries at 99 Ranch.
 
IndieDev said:
sgip said:
At some point in time the race card would be jacked out. Regrettably it was sooner rather than later.

My first post in this thread offended some. My apologies for any hurt feelings.

You could substitute any nationality for China and Chinese and the thought is still the same. If a German wanted to flee Hamburg because they see the collapse of the Euro coming and decided to buy in Westpark, they still are voting with their feet. Perhaps if a Coptic Christian wanted to leave Alexandria because of religious persecution and purchased in Northpark, they are still saying something about their belief about the conditions in their home country. Still yet, one can also point to the loss of 108,000 people from Orange County in 2010 who fled to Utah, Texas, Washington and points unknown because of the "state of the State" here.

The rich German, the affluent Egyptian, and wealthy former Orange County dweller probably looks back at their homeland thinking I'm glad I'm no longer the tallest midget at that carnival.  Every country has their problems. I'm not here to say that the United States is flawless. There's a great deal of "China envy" out there which I'm guessing is reciprocal - there may be plenty of people everywhere else saying there's no better place to be than the US.  Time will tell which view is right. For now, given immigration trends, it seems that more people want to come here than leave.  That's not racist. It's statistics.

My .02c

Soylent Green Is People.
Click to expand...

More random drivel with vague references to "Germans" and net U.S immigration, but not actually addressing the topic of rich Chinese people buying real estate in Irvine.

The internet.
Click to expand...

More like mindless drivel.  This isn't about race.  If you haven't even been to China then your opinion is not wanted.  The only midget here is the One World Trade Center (541m) being built in America compared to the Shanghai Tower (632m) being built in China.
 
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