Which one would you choose and why?

[Ochomebuyer]

We'll need inventory levels to increase for things to calm down because as of now we have less than 1.5 months of inventory which is a strong seller's market.

Do you think inventory levels will increase when mortgage rates drop?

When do you think mortgage rates will drop?

 

[usctrojancpa]

Do you think inventory levels will increase when mortgage rates drop?

When do you think mortgage rates will drop?

I think rates would have to drop into the 5s in order to unlock materially more inventory. That being said, when rates come down that much you'll get a lot of financed buyers that have gone to sidelines come back into the market which will increase demand more than supply increases. Some of my buyers who are buying today think rates will come down in the next 2-3 years so they rather lock down the price now and then refi the rate later (as the saying goes...you can refi the rate but you can't refi the price).

 

[Ochomebuyer]

I think rates would have to drop into the 5s in order to unlock materially more inventory. That being said, when rates come down that much you'll get a lot of financed buyers that have gone to sidelines come back into the market which will increase demand more than supply increases. Some of my buyers who are buying today think rates will come down in the next 2-3 years so they rather lock down the price now and then refi the rate later (as the saying goes...you can refi the rate but you can't refi the price).

When do you think rates will come down?

 

[OCtoSV]

When do you think rates will come down?

the more astute question is what will drive spreads back to their historic levels from current 300 bps level?

 

[The Motor Court Company]

I think rates would have to drop into the 5s in order to unlock materially more inventory. That being said, when rates come down that much you'll get a lot of financed buyers that have gone to sidelines come back into the market which will increase demand more than supply increases. Some of my buyers who are buying today think rates will come down in the next 2-3 years so they rather lock down the price now and then refi the rate later (as the saying goes...you can refi the rate but you can't refi the price).

Need a deep recession for Fed to lower rates and when that happens it will curb demand as job losses ramp up and when price starts to fall more sellers will rush to the exit and buyers will hesitate to buy and making a positive feedback loop as prices keep dropping

 

[CalBears96]

Need a deep recession for Fed to lower rates and when that happens it will curb demand as job losses ramp up and when price starts to fall more sellers will rush to the exit and buyers will hesitate to buy and making a positive feedback loop as prices keep dropping

Again, this may happen in other parts of the country, but not in OC, especially in Irvine, since they refinanced at super low rates so they have no incentive to sell.

 

[B2FiNiTY]

When do you think rates will come down?

My guess is late next year at the EARLIEST. At most one more rate hike to go... finally starting to see some tightening in the market lately after such a run in 2023.

 

[CalBears96]

My guess is late next year at the EARLIEST. At most one more rate hike to go... finally starting to see some tightening in the market lately after such a run in 2023.

I agree. Either late next year or 2025.

 

[freedomcm]

Will there be any effect on inventory/price if short-term rentals are effectively banned?

 

[usctrojancpa]

When do you think rates will come down?

I don't think that rates will materially come down until 2025 and 2026 as inflation is a bit sticky so the Fed will need to stay tighter for longer than most people think.

 

[usctrojancpa]

Will there be any effect on inventory/price if short-term rentals are effectively banned?

It will be minimal in Irvine and in most parts of Orange County.