Where's the best place to blow $1 million on an SFR in Irvine?

I

iheartdebt

New member
The more I look and search for SFRs, and the more discussions I read, the more confused I get.  I'm hoping I can get some centralized replies on this thread, and I do apologize in advance if I'm asking something that's been covered.  It's time for a 2011 update  ;)

I'm pretty much only interested in Irvine for the school district (K-12), though Tustin Legacy could work.  New and used homes are both acceptable in the discussion, but 1 bed/full bath downstairs is a priority as well.  2 car garages, meh, but beggars can't be choosers.  Would love a 3.

Based on what I have seen, the market for SFRs is much more competitive than the condo/townhome (and TIC has less scheduled construction of the former and more of the latter).  In the past year, SFRs seem to have gone up in price by 10%, whereas condo/townhomes have dropped 5-10%.  Does my experience match yours?

Also, does anyone know if there are plans for new construction in the SFR, 3000-ish sq ft, $900-1.1k range in places like WB, SG, SGE areas in the immediate future?  Personally, Orchard seems too far out (buildout as well as physical distance) and too costly for me.  Same thing regarding Laguna Crossing or whatever it's gonna be called.  Lastly, I visited Las Colinas in Portola Springs and didn't like the layouts at all.  Which architect genius decided to toss a master bathtub jutting into the middle of the bathroom?  And the separated dual garage doors by a pillar in the middle?  But then again, no one in Irvine works on their own cars anymore as DIY car maintenance and getting your hands dirty is uncivilized...
 
iheartdebt said:
Also, does anyone know if there are plans for new construction in the SFR, 3000-ish sq ft, $900-1.1k range in places like WB, SG, SGE areas in the immediate future? 
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Have you looked at Carmel in Woodbury?

http://www.villagesofirvine.com/Villages-And-Residences/Woodbury-Overview.aspx?type=neighborhood&Id=47
 
If you are looking for "true" SFRs in Irvine/Tustin ranch area - I think below approximates can apply :
a. NEW >1 M (Year Built - 2005 and above)
b. LIKE NEW >800K (Year Built - 1995 - 2005)
c. LIKE OLD >700K (Year Built - 1985 - 1995)
d. OLDER > 500K (Year Built 1985  and below)
If you are sure about which of the above you are looking for, someone in this forum may have an answer. Ofcourse, there are other factors that influence the prices - like sq ft, lot size, location, upgrades, #beds, 3-car / 2-car etc.,
 
Yes, but last I checked, they were sold out.  Something like Carmel would be very similar to what I'm looking for (minus the effectively invisible yard sizes).  Their WB location is pretty central and convenient, not too close from the freeway and not too far (wondering/fearing what Sand Canyon and Jeffrey will look like when PS, WBE, SG, SGE are done).

It will be a sad day when the Great Park construction begins in earnest.  Coffee Crew morning bike rides blasting down Irvine Blvd at 30 mph will be a thing of the past.

test said:
iheartdebt said:
Also, does anyone know if there are plans for new construction in the SFR, 3000-ish sq ft, $900-1.1k range in places like WB, SG, SGE areas in the immediate future? 
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Have you looked at Carmel in Woodbury?

http://www.villagesofirvine.com/Villages-And-Residences/Woodbury-Overview.aspx?type=neighborhood&Id=47
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New to like new is preferable.  $1M, around 3000 sq ft, 5 bed, 1 downstairs.  Lot size, upgrades, don't care about as much.  3 car obviously, but will settle for 2.  Location, and other things to consider were the opinions I was seeking, within the factors stated above.

It feels like the competition for SFRs is picking up.  Just this past weekend, driving to several open houses in Northwood Pointe, WB and PS, there were always other shoppers coming and going at the same time.  Curious if you all think the trend will continue, or if new supply or planned supply (as well as short sales, foreclosures) will balance this out.

I feel that the townhome/condo market still has many issues, and we're far from out of the woods.  $4 gasoline and any municipal problems could easily rear their ugly heads, even though Irvine is probably "different" to a certain extent.

TustinRanchResident said:
If you are looking for "true" SFRs in Irvine/Tustin ranch area - I think below approximates can apply :
a. NEW >1 M (Year Built - 2005 and above)
b. LIKE NEW >800K (Year Built - 1995 - 2005)
c. LIKE OLD >700K (Year Built - 1985 - 1995)
d. OLDER > 500K (Year Built 1985  and below)
If you are sure about which of the above you are looking for, someone in this forum may have an answer. Ofcourse, there are other factors that influence the prices - like sq ft, lot size, location, upgrades, #beds, 3-car / 2-car etc.,
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Welcome Iheartdebt! Interesting post. My 1st question would be, do you really need to buy now? Can renting satisfy your living needs?

I only say this because, the home size and price range you are looking will be under tremendous price pressure as we move forward in this market. I can't be certain of the time frame but here are the head winds:
1) Tight credit / higher lending standards, especially for the Jumbo mortgage market
2) Ever increasing pool of shadow inventory for McMansions in the $1M+ category
3) Post 2012, TIC will not be the only new home game in town--Heritage Fields will put further price / feature pressure

If you really need to buy new within the next 12 months:
1) Woodbury near Carmel II has largish empty lots--IHO mentioned Irvine Pacific to build SFR 3000sqft+ homes (not sure of the exact time frame)

2) Laguna Altura--gated area near Quail Hill. Look at tract #17372, 86 homes on 15.7 acres. Lot sizes look decent. I didn't see any floor plans or prices yet.http://www.talkirvine.com/index.php?topic=1286.0

If you can wait post 2012 new construction:
1) Orchard Hills
2) Lambert Ranch
3) Heritage Fields
4) Later phases of Portola Springs
5) Laguna Altura ?South enclave
 
Welcome iheartdebt.  You aren't the only person who is frustrated with finding a 4bd/3ba home build after 1990.  I have a handful of Irvine buyers who are having no luck at finding what they are looking for right now.  I'm hoping that the inventory levels for these homes begins to pick up soon.  The fact is that most of the homes in Irvine are condos and townhomes so there aren't that many 4bd/3ba homes (especially now ones).  Areas like Quail Hill and Turtle Ridge command a steep premium for the type of home you are looking for.  Northpark, Northwood Pointe, Northwood II, and Woodbury sound like they might be your best options.  Good luck on your search!
 
iacrenter said:
Welcome Iheartdebt! Interesting post. My 1st question would be, do you really need to buy now? Can renting satisfy your living needs?

I guess I could buy a stasis pod, toss the wife in there, and thus putting the little guy that I ordered on hold, lol.  But yeah, I think I just really abhor the thought of moving, I'm lazy like that.

I only say this because, the home size and price range you are looking will be under tremendous price pressure as we move forward in this market. I can't be certain of the time frame but here are the head winds:
1) Tight credit / higher lending standards, especially for the Jumbo mortgage market

Definitely agree, whatever comes to pass will reduce borrowing power in this segment.  However, I'm not sure it will be enough to reduce the pent-up demand of many buyers who have been on the sidelines.  Those that have been putting off purchases by renting, or were saving the whole time because they never overbought during the bubble are putting a fair to substantial amount down these days.  These properties will probably not change hands for a longer than normal RE cycle.  Of course, my own perception is being affected by the type I associate with, so it's screwing with bias.

2) Ever increasing pool of shadow inventory for McMansions in the $1M+ category

Is this the consensus?  I'm not so sure.  I don't have access to any tools like MLS, but just scanning redfin, many areas that were completed in front of or during the peak have already seen a good amount of properties exchange hands.  Again, homes out of weak and into the strong.  Even if it's not via foreign, cash heavy buyers (which is another topic in itself - I can't see the global shift reversing in the next few decades, and the inflationary and debt-fueled policy our leaders have chosen certainly won't help), those with high cashflow salaries that are doing well in this poor employment market are only going to continue to flourish if/when the job market recovers.  Anyway, this paragraph is starting to swerve.  Originally, I was going to point out as an example, Quail Hill.  Seems like a lot of those blue house icons, filtered by 1, 2, 3 years.  Wondering how much more in the shadows in those places, especially if the banks are able to keep them on the trickle setting.

3) Post 2012, TIC will not be the only new home game in town--Heritage Fields will put further price / feature pressure

Guess I didn't really think of the base as Irvine, since growing up and driving back and forth past this area, it always seemed like just land.  And it's huge.  Oops.  Pretty clueless about it... is the whole place going to be IUSD?

If you really need to buy new within the next 12 months:
1) Woodbury near Carmel II has largish empty lots--IHO mentioned Irvine Pacific to build SFR 3000sqft+ homes (not sure of the exact time frame)

Hmm, yes.  And I guess I'm realizing from this thread that the places more at the extremities of Irvine are less desirable to me (1,2,4,5 listed below), but Woodbury sorta feels like a bunch of dwellings put in a compacter.  There's PA 40 afterwards, I suppose.  I feel like an insider using special code jargon 8)

2) Laguna Altura--gated area near Quail Hill. Look at tract #17372, 86 homes on 15.7 acres. Lot sizes look decent. I didn't see any floor plans or prices yet.http://www.talkirvine.com/index.php?topic=1286.0

If you can wait post 2012 new construction:
1) Orchard Hills
2) Lambert Ranch
3) Heritage Fields
4) Later phases of Portola Springs
5) Laguna Altura ?South enclave
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A nice Trojan huh?  You must not be in Ladera... oops, just playin'...  Are you finding that your aforementioned buyers fit the type that I think I'm seeing, shopping in the SFR $900-1M segment?

I think you're right as to the options that remain.  QH and TR felt a little impersonal the times I visited.  Would consider Woodbridge, but like I said previously, laziness.  Newer homes and older cars, not the other way around, for me.

USCTrojanCPA said:
Welcome iheartdebt.  You aren't the only person who is frustrated with finding a 4bd/3ba home build after 1990.  I have a handful of Irvine buyers who are having no luck at finding what they are looking for right now.  I'm hoping that the inventory levels for these homes begins to pick up soon.  The fact is that most of the homes in Irvine are condos and townhomes so there aren't that many 4bd/3ba homes (especially now ones).  Areas like Quail Hill and Turtle Ridge command a steep premium for the type of home you are looking for.  Northpark, Northwood Pointe, Northwood II, and Woodbury sound like they might be your best options.  Good luck on your search!
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iheartdebt said:
Lastly, I visited Las Colinas in Portola Springs and didn't like the layouts at all.
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I actually like Los Colinas better than the MonteSonoCarmel homes.
Which architect genius decided to toss a master bathtub jutting into the middle of the bathroom?
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That's called the VampireTub? (?2010 BK),
And the separated dual garage doors by a pillar in the middle?
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Totally agree. While maybe aesthetically more pleasing and architecturally safer, what if you have a wider vehicle? Or if you need to work on something in the garage but can't fit it through a single door. Maybe because there are no more new 3-car garages in Irvine, they need to create a market for 1-car garage doors.
 
IndieDev said:
That's already here if you're looking pre-1990. Post 1990 will follow soon enough.
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Maybe... although I don't see many homes I like that sold for $1mil and are now $750k.

Post 2010 is already in the $900ks. When an SFR with a motorcourt and no alternate living spaces upstairs or downstairs starts at $765k... that's worrisome.

But I'm crossing my fingers.
 
iheartdebt said:
A nice Trojan huh?  You must not be in Ladera... oops, just playin'...  Are you finding that your aforementioned buyers fit the type that I think I'm seeing, shopping in the SFR $900-1M segment?

I think you're right as to the options that remain.  QH and TR felt a little impersonal the times I visited.  Would consider Woodbridge, but like I said previously, laziness.  Newer homes and older cars, not the other way around, for me.

USCTrojanCPA said:
Welcome iheartdebt.  You aren't the only person who is frustrated with finding a 4bd/3ba home build after 1990.  I have a handful of Irvine buyers who are having no luck at finding what they are looking for right now.  I'm hoping that the inventory levels for these homes begins to pick up soon.  The fact is that most of the homes in Irvine are condos and townhomes so there aren't that many 4bd/3ba homes (especially now ones).  Areas like Quail Hill and Turtle Ridge command a steep premium for the type of home you are looking for.  Northpark, Northwood Pointe, Northwood II, and Woodbury sound like they might be your best options.  Good luck on your search!
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Could be that I'm really a Brojan since I went to undergrad at UCLA.  haha  The buyers that I do speak of have a budget of $650k to over $1m.  To say that they are frustrated is an understatement.  Most all of them want properties built in the 90s or earlier so that reduces the inventory that much more.
 
True, and at that price, someone still took a $200,000+ bath.

It's the Irvine market. It's completely out of whack with local rents and incomes.

To be honest, I'm surprised the prices have been this sticky. Irvine must be the Knifecatcher capital of the world.
 
It really is amazing that prices in irvine at one point had gone upto >500/sq ft. Now prices are around
275 (portola homes) to around 340 (montecarmelsonoma collection). even taking the high end of 340.

The prices today are about 30-35% lower than peak. Although it appears that Irvine is holding steady.

I believe the reason is probably because the job losses in irvine wasn't as bad as other places, so people have
holding on power. But I could be wrong.


IndieDev said:
True, and at that price, someone still took a $200,000+ bath.

It's the Irvine market. It's completely out of whack with local rents and incomes.

To be honest, I'm surprised the prices have been this sticky. Irvine must be the Knifecatcher capital of the world.
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