Where is the Next Emerging RE market in SoCal?

[quote author="Panda "]
Personally, I am thinking that it would be great to have my primary residence in Irvine but expanding my income RE investing portfolio in Gwinette County as i see a much bigger upside then investing in Irvine.

[/quote]

Ok, I didn't realize you were talking about it from an investment standpoint. But even at that, I would think being a landlord from almost 3,000 miles away would be tough, even with a management company. How about the next emerging Southern California market? Because you know there will be another. Just a matter of Graceomalley telling us where it is.

My wife and I have thought about buying something in Chino Hills as investment property, and just continuing to rent in Irvine for the foreseeable future. But not sure if that is the right direction. Maybe Chino Hills has already passed its peak margin potential, too.

This LA Times article on Chino Hills (which also draws comparisons to Irvine) has had me wondering about the potential in Chino Hills for three years:

http://articles.latimes.com/2007/apr/12/local/me-chinohills12

So the big question is, do properties like these two rebound from $200 sq ft? Or are they still inflated? I tend to think these are probably fairly close to rent equiv.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Chino-Hills/5729-Doverton-Way-91709/home/4196561

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Chino-Hills/16273-Avalon-Ct-91709/home/4196764
 
[quote author="ck"]
[quote author="Panda "]
Personally, I am thinking that it would be great to have my primary residence in Irvine but expanding my income RE investing portfolio in Gwinette County as i see a much bigger upside then investing in Irvine.

[/quote]

Ok, I didn't realize you were talking about it from an investment standpoint. But even at that, I would think being a landlord from almost 3,000 miles away would be tough, even with a management company. How about the next emerging Southern California market? Because you know there will be another. Just a matter of Graceomalley telling us where it is.

My wife and I have thought about buying something in Chino Hills as investment property, and just continuing to rent in Irvine for the foreseeable future. But not sure if that is the right direction. Maybe Chino Hills has already passed its peak margin potential, too.

This LA Times article on Chino Hills (which also draws comparisons to Irvine) has had me wondering about the potential in Chino Hills for three years:

http://articles.latimes.com/2007/apr/12/local/me-chinohills12

So the big question is, do properties like these two rebound from $200 sq ft? Or are they still inflated? I tend to think these are probably fairly close to rent equiv.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Chino-Hills/5729-Doverton-Way-91709/home/4196561

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Chino-Hills/16273-Avalon-Ct-91709/home/4196764

[/quote]

Any chance that new residential homes will be built south of San Clemente and north of Oceanside San Diego??? <!-- s:) -->:)<!-- s:) -->

CK, Chino Hills is actually good one. I would love to hear BK's thoughts on where he thinks the next emerging RE markets in Southern California will be.
 
Just for fun. A 2.5 mile radius around an area of the 91709 zip code.

jjmofc.jpg



I always get blown away when I look at the Orange County defaults that are out there but then when I pull up anything in Riverside or San Bernardino county, it makes me think OC is not that bad.
 
[quote author="25inIrvine"]Just for fun. A 2.5 mile radius around an area of the 91709 zip code.

I always get blown away when I look at the Orange County defaults that are out there but then when I pull up anything in Riverside or San Bernardino county, it makes me think OC is not that bad.[/quote]

Thanks. That is interesting. Given all that, I am surprised how well Chino Hills has held up in relation to the rest of the 909/951.
 
[quote author="ck"]
[quote author="Panda "]
Personally, I am thinking that it would be great to have my primary residence in Irvine but expanding my income RE investing portfolio in Gwinette County as i see a much bigger upside then investing in Irvine.

[/quote]

Ok, I didn't realize you were talking about it from an investment standpoint. But even at that, I would think being a landlord from almost 3,000 miles away would be tough, even with a management company. How about the next emerging Southern California market? Because you know there will be another. Just a matter of Graceomalley telling us where it is.

My wife and I have thought about buying something in Chino Hills as investment property, and just continuing to rent in Irvine for the foreseeable future. But not sure if that is the right direction. Maybe Chino Hills has already passed its peak margin potential, too.

This LA Times article on Chino Hills (which also draws comparisons to Irvine) has had me wondering about the potential in Chino Hills for three years:

http://articles.latimes.com/2007/apr/12/local/me-chinohills12

So the big question is, do properties like these two rebound from $200 sq ft? Or are they still inflated? I tend to think these are probably fairly close to rent equiv.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Chino-Hills/5729-Doverton-Way-91709/home/4196561

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Chino-Hills/16273-Avalon-Ct-91709/home/4196764

[/quote]
Isn't it interesting how these same homes would sell for around $750k in Irvine, $250k in Temecula, and $200k in Las Vegas?
 
Rancho Cucamonga, CA
Moreno Valley, CA

What do you guys think about these cities for the next emerging RE markets to invest in? All I know is that the job and population growth is very strong in these two cities. Are they considered newer cities compared to Irvine? I have very little knowledge about these two cities. Any information would be welcome.
 
[quote author="Panda "]Rancho Cucamonga, CA
Moreno Valley, CA

What do you guys think about these cities for the next emerging RE markets to invest in? All I know is that the job and population growth is very strong in these two cities. Are they considered newer cities compared to Irvine? I have very little knowledge about these two cities. Any information would be welcome. [/quote]

The less knowledge you have about these two cities, the better. I'm trying to think of a politically correct way to describe the non-commutable Inland Empire (too far east to commute to OC or LA job centers --- or anything east of about Corona or Chino). I can't think of anything politically correct or nice to say, so I'll stop there.
 
CK, looking the map i think you are right aobut RC and MV.. too far to the east. I think Chino Hills is a good one as Diamond Bar has similar demographics of Irvine but the homes are much older. You can still commute to LA/OC job centeres from Chino Hills. I am assuming that Chino Hills is a much newer area where people from Diamond Bar would move to.

Any Mell roos in Chino Hills? Can you cash flow positive with 20% down?
 
PANDA:

You can study as much as you want with statistics. The textbook approach is never the right answer. The environmental and perception factors are not represented in a one page chart.

Limited knowledge and narrow mindedness are the primary reasons herd exists and why they believe toilet paper and paper towels are the cheapest at Costco.

Let me put it this way. One can read "The Joy of Sex" for a thousand time and know the entire theory really well but without practice he is no Casanova.
 
[quote author="Panda "]I am assuming that Chino Hills is a much newer area where people from Diamond Bar would move to. What do you think?[/quote]

Yes is the answer to that question. Definitely yes. One of our friends partnered in the opening of a Yakitori/Shabu restaurant out there last year, and it is doing well...and certainly supported by the growing Asian population. We go out there from time to time to partake in the *insider* discount, feels just like we are at any restaurant in the Marketplace or Spectrum.

Check out their FB page or the Yelp reviews to get an idea of the demographic in Chino Hills, Panda.

http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100000220716137

http://www.yelp.com/biz/ichikawa-shabu-fondue-yakitori-and-sushi-chino-hills
 
I have always wondered a Taiwanese sushi restaurant is any better than a Japanese sushi restaurant?

I know for a Chinese restaurant not having a Chinese owner meant the restroom is clean, an "A" from county health rating, no staff smoking in the restroom, fewer roaches and rats and nicer attitude waiters but lousy food.
 
Although Chino Hills and Diamond Bar are nice areas... they face the issue of "inlanditis". That's why coastal communities usually have a premium.

And while Irvine isn't really coastal, it's not too far from it and other important areas like job centers, a university, shopping and an airport.

Places like Fountain Valley and Costa Mesa are similar in location... but not master-planned. While many have disdain for the homogenous nature of Irvine... it also makes it desireable as there is less variation between areas compared to other cities. Don't get me wrong, there are rundown areas in Irvine but you will find they are nicer than their counterparts in other cities.

I think someone said on the IHB OCReader that if you bulldozed a large area of Costa Mesa and built a brand new community similar to Woodbury... you would get the same hype and pricing. I never responded but I don't really agree... because you still have to deal with the rest of Costa Mesa. There are parts that are nice... but there are also parts that are quite seedy (maybe FreedomCM has more to say on that).

EDIT: It was actually on OCReader about the CM bulldoze thing.
 
Both Fountain Valley and Costa Mesa were master planned by well known architects of that era. Cliff May master planned a large portion of CM.

Here is a link for FV

http://74.125.155.132/search?q=cache:F0ZmK4b7F4wJ:www.fountainvalley.org/visitors/facts/history.html+was+fountain+valley+master+planned&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us

The Motorola Brick phone and Oki Phone were first introduced consumers thought those were the best "master planned technology" ever. Consumers paid over $600 for them.

Study history my friend. CM and FV were "pagers".
El Camino was Motorola Brick Phone,
Westpark was Palm Pilot,
Northpark was Blackberry,
and Woodbury is the current Iphone.

Master-planned communities may be nice for the current time because the concept is based on trend and current consumer research just like technology. Taste and preference change among consumers. Trust me in 10 years you would be embarrassed to carry an Iphone.
 
[quote author="irvinehomeowner"]
I think someone said on the IHB that if you bulldozed a large area of Costa Mesa and built a brand new community similar to Woodbury... you would get the same hype and pricing. I never responded but I don't really agree... because you still have to deal with the rest of Costa Mesa. There are parts that are nice... but there are also parts that are quite seedy (maybe FreedomCM has more to say on that).[/quote]

I actually tend to think if they put a "Woodbury" in Costa Mesa it would be a wild success. There are a lot of people who really like CM...and probably also would like the convenience of new construction there.

Putting a new community into Costa Mesa might be similar to the Playa Vista project in West LA a few years ago. That area has a similar relationship to the water as CM, and is bordered by one nice area (Marina Del Rey) and a couple somewhat seedy areas --- Westchester, Playa Del Rey, LAX). If I recall, putting new homes in the middle of that already established area was a pretty big success.
 
Maybe I should have said not master-controlled. Many cities have Master Plans but the execution of Irvine's and more to the extent of how they've maintained it is notable.

There are other factors at play here of course in regards to average age of homes, number of newer communities, public perception (schools and safety)... things that can't really be reversed.

And again, the variance in those cities is much more noticeable... at least in my opinion. In regards to CK's post, I believe there was a new area of construction in early 2000 and it did do well (Mesa Verde and Adams) and a quick Redfin search shows they are still selling at Irvine-esque prices ($330+/sf)... but would you live there? I guess I have to clarify my opinion by saying that it depends on where in Costa Mesa they bust a scorched earth... because there are tons of infill projects (small new home builds) in the 55/Newport area that aren't selling very well.

And although anecdotal, Irvine just feels newer than both FV and CM... not just due to newer construction but how most of their retail centers have been modernized through the years (Irvine is only about 10-20 years older than them).

At the same time, I will add that I have thought about living in either city at one time in my life... both of them are very close to beaches and also close to the 405. If I had to choose, I would probably go with Costa Mesa (although it would be nice to live next to Fry's).

And maybe I should have said this earlier... but this is just my opinion... so your feelings may differ. Maybe FV and CM should hire TIC to be their PR reps.
 
It is all in the game of perception. This is why PR and marketing exist to launch a product. Tylenol and generic pills are both made from the same ingredients. One due to the brand polishing must have sell at a higher price to recover the cost of branding. Sometimes in order to compete with a brand manufacturer would package less pills but to match the generic price. Sounds familiar?

CK mentioned about seediness. I know a city hired a marketing and rebranding firm to bring life back to the forbidden streets of Pasadena. Old Town was once a place for male and female hookers, drug pushers and abusers shooting up in back alleys', pawn and porn shops, and where Mike Brady contracted AIDS from a male prostitute.

Look at how vibrant Old Town now. The same buildings and brick alleys still exist. They have not changed at all. the physical built environment is virtually the same but the ambiance of the businesses, restaurants, and people are what made it alive.

The same would hold true in the reverse timeline scenario. Spring and Main street in Downtown LA were once home to the west coast banking, financial and stock exchange, 5 star hotels and movie palaces. Once called the Wall Street of the West this part of downtown was abandoned by the people. At 7th and Main Ralphs started his grocery produce market in 1900's. His grocery delivery boy ventured out and started his market gig in OC called Alpha Beta and built himself a mansion in Floral Park across the street from the Segerstrom house.

The same story also applied to Floral park when the Caucasian residents fled to MV, Costa Mesa, Newport, and Corona Del Mar during the 60's

Henry wanted to build his SCP in North Santa Ana in 1960's but the city did not give him the tax incentive so he went down south to the Costa Mesa/ Santa Ana border to build his shopping center. Because Santa Ana was the brand city and Sears the major anchor insisted on the Santa Ana address therefore a part of the mall was built in Santa Ana and being advertised as such.

The will of the people has a lot to do with success to communities. The idea of branding marketing is really like motivational speeches to psych up the mind believing in the products.
 
First, "Grace", do you have any accessible info on Cliff May planning parts of FV or CM?

Second, as to new developments in CM:

There are four that are 'communities', rather than infill:

a: the one IHO mentioned west of harbor, south of adams. this is ~50 SFR build 2000-2002, 2000sf-3000sf. They originally sold for ~$400k, went as high as ~$1200k, and are now selling for $750k-$900k ($250/sf-$300/sf). only one has sold for more than $300/sf in the past three years.

b. Cornerstone, west of harbor at fair, next to the 'developmental center'. This is ~30 detached condos ~2000sf that sold for ~$800k when new and are now going for $550-$600, ~$250/sf.

c. Corte/Via. This is ~50 SFR and ~75 attached condos near the IKEA, north of the 405. These were build in 2004, sold for ~$750k, went up to ~$1000, and are now selling for ~600k, ~$325/sf (for the SFR). for the condos, it was ~$550k, peaking ~$800k, and now ~$500k, ~$325/sf.

d. about 30 SFR near mesa del mar, off fairview. one, citrus ~2000sf SFR was built in 1998. sold ~$300k, peaked ~$850k, and now going around $600k (~$300/sf).

There are also two brand new infills with ~10 units, Coronado in mesa del mar, SFR ~2250sf priced ~$700k (~$325/sf). And Pacific, on the west bluffs (some with ocean views). they are ~1800sf, priced ~$1000k last year, and now down to ~$750k ($500sf).
 
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