Where are we headed?Irvine home prices?

[usctrojancpa]

Bw - there are price reductions in Austin, Texas.

There needs to be context to the price reductions.  Are those properties prices above current closed comps?  If so, then that just means that buyers aren't willing to help the seller and listing agent set the model match closed comp record.  If not, then yes prices are dropping.  It also matters the months of inventory in Austin as well...the same 1-3 months of inventory is a seller's market, 4-6 months of inventory is a neutral market, and 6+ months of inventory is a buyer's market.  That metric applies to every market.

Reducing the price feature on Redfin is just an indicator or maybe not.
I just took a quick glance at the following cities: OKC, Miami, Houston, Vegas, Dallas

It looks like there are multiple price reduction listings.

There are always going to be price reductions whether the market is a seller's market, a neutral market, or a buyer's market so there being price reductions means nothing without more data/information.  What matters is how many months of inventory there is on the market.  Do you have that data for each of those markets?

 

[IrvineBug22]

USC what is Irvine at currently for months of inventory?

 

[usctrojancpa]

USC what is Irvine at currently for months of inventory?

There are 697 active listings on the market right now and the average monthly sales in the past 3 months is 266.67 so there is 2.61 months of inventory out on the market right now in Irvine.

 

[Halos]

Hopefully this is contained to Seattle
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/02/sea...nder-pressure-as-chinese-buying-dries-up.html

"Stephen Saunders is a managing broker with Coldwell Banker Seattle and works with Chinese investors in the Seattle market. "It's drying up," he said"

"It's not necessarily the decline in the currency, it is the increasing restrictions on getting money out. It's just getting tighter and tighter"

"Seattle could see the opposite of the buying frenzy it had two years ago"

 

[eyephone]

Thanks for sharing. What do you expect high tarriffs on Chinese products? I assume who ever owns the factories are not going to spend.
Also, the buy low sigh theory comes into factor.

(my comment is for entertainment purposes only and should not be used for any decision.  )

Hopefully this is contained to Seattle
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/02/sea...nder-pressure-as-chinese-buying-dries-up.html

"Stephen Saunders is a managing broker with Coldwell Banker Seattle and works with Chinese investors in the Seattle market. "It's drying up," he said"

"It's not necessarily the decline in the currency, it is the increasing restrictions on getting money out. It's just getting tighter and tighter"

"Seattle could see the opposite of the buying frenzy it had two years ago"

 

[qwerty]

Eyephone = real estate genius and predictor of the future.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

Thanks for sharing. What do you expect high tarriffs on Chinese products? I assume who ever owns the factories are not going to spend.
Also, the buy low sigh theory comes into factor.

(my comment is for entertainment purposes only and should not be used for any decision.  )

Hopefully this is contained to Seattle
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/02/sea...nder-pressure-as-chinese-buying-dries-up.html

"Stephen Saunders is a managing broker with Coldwell Banker Seattle and works with Chinese investors in the Seattle market. "It's drying up," he said"

"It's not necessarily the decline in the currency, it is the increasing restrictions on getting money out. It's just getting tighter and tighter"

"Seattle could see the opposite of the buying frenzy it had two years ago"

I was more entertain when someone keeps saying that the prices keep going to the moon.

 

[usctrojancpa]

Hopefully this is contained to Seattle
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/02/sea...nder-pressure-as-chinese-buying-dries-up.html

"Stephen Saunders is a managing broker with Coldwell Banker Seattle and works with Chinese investors in the Seattle market. "It's drying up," he said"

"It's not necessarily the decline in the currency, it is the increasing restrictions on getting money out. It's just getting tighter and tighter"

"Seattle could see the opposite of the buying frenzy it had two years ago"

I see bank accounts from these Chinese buyers and the money is still coming over, just in smaller chunks.  Also, some are using US Chinese banks (Cathay, East West, etc) to finance the purchase homes with putting 50% down.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

The demands is always there. If they can't move large amount at once, they will find a different ways and slower movements. Same as organic buyers here in OC. I am pretty certain that those looking would love to buy, IF they can.

 

[Halos]

https://www.theepochtimes.com/the-next-real-estate-bubble-is-popping_2609889.html

"In beautiful Orange County, for example, home sales in luxury venues such as Newport and Laguna Beach have slowed to a trickle"

Irvine domino has yet to fall, but it's next in line.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

https://www.theepochtimes.com/the-next-real-estate-bubble-is-popping_2609889.html

"In beautiful Orange County, for example, home sales in luxury venues such as Newport and Laguna Beach have slowed to a trickle"

Irvine domino has yet to fall, but it's next in line.

So can I being stupid, greedy, and not financially stable go out and buy a house, right now that I like?

 

[Halos]

https://www.theepochtimes.com/the-next-real-estate-bubble-is-popping_2609889.html

"In beautiful Orange County, for example, home sales in luxury venues such as Newport and Laguna Beach have slowed to a trickle"

Irvine domino has yet to fall, but it's next in line.

So can I being stupid, greedy, and not financially stable go out and buy a house, right now that I like?

Greed is definitely what got us here, and desperation to move funds from Communist regimes hellbent on devaluing their currency.

Different bubble...different catalysts

The headwinds just keep piling up...https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article215762120.html

 

[irvinebullhousing]

This suggested that, greedy and fear all in one instance, where the greedy wants more safe heaven silos to park their money, devaluing currency, which would lessen their wealth. If certain group or individuals does not moving their wealth abroad.

This would then result in more purchase and more investment outside of their country whether in residential or commercial.

This would then continue to push higher assets prices, would it not?

So they want to crack down on shell corp and reveal true identity of people making the transaction, so what, they could easily substitute a distance uncle, aunt, niece, nephew so on and so on the transactions, paper documents.

If they can fake moving money, they can easily fake other tasks to obtain and hold.

 

[Halos]

This suggested that, greedy and fear all in one instance, where the greedy wants more safe heaven silos to park their money, devaluing currency, which would lessen their wealth. If certain group or individuals does not moving their wealth abroad.

This would then result in more purchase and more investment outside of their country whether in residential or commercial.

This would then continue to push higher assets prices, would it not?

So they want to crack down on shell corp and reveal true identity of people making the transaction, so what, they could easily substitute a distance uncle, aunt, niece, nephew so on and so on the transactions, paper documents.

If they can fake moving money, they can easily fake other tasks to obtain and hold.

Market Cap of Bitcoin/Crypto will tell you if Irvine RE will go higher or lower (stealth wealth transfer).

The "money" coming over is not necessarily "capital" but rather leveraged debt from dodgy collateral in mainland laundered over quickly.

Watch the Shanghai Composite, Yuan offshore value, and value of Bitcoin....you will then have an glimpse into the future.

 

[Kenkoko]

Chinese economy is in a downward spiral. Shanghai index has drop more than 20% since beginning of the year. And more importantly, has drop below 2016 lowest point. They are in a bear market. Stock has dropped 45% since 2015.
I am not predicting doom for Irvine home prices but I do think we will see Chinese buying slow down in Irvine market soon.

 

[Kings]

Chinese economy is in a downward spiral. Shanghai index has drop more than 20% since beginning of the year. And more importantly, has drop below 2016 lowest point. They are in a bear market. Stock has dropped 45% since 2015.
I am not predicting doom for Irvine home prices but I do think we will see Chinese buying slow down in Irvine market soon.

china is losing the trade war

 

[fortune11]

Chinese economy is in a downward spiral. Shanghai index has drop more than 20% since beginning of the year. And more importantly, has drop below 2016 lowest point. They are in a bear market. Stock has dropped 45% since 2015.
I am not predicting doom for Irvine home prices but I do think we will see Chinese buying slow down in Irvine market soon.

china is losing the trade war

Trade war has not even begun ...

Now you should respond by saying ?but market looks ahead ?

Now w this logic try and explain how yuan devaluation will not help the exports and thereby lessen the hit from tariffs ?

But but ... er...  yuan going down means capital flight, no ?
So ... where is money going ? Safer havens ? Geez , I wonder what those safer havens are ? Surely it can?t those s__hole countries trump was talking about .

But then see the US stock markets - it is up so much , this must mean we are winning the trade war , no ?  Hmm ... maybe it has to do with the best earnings season is a decade , propelled by tax cuts ?

Ultimately system is very complicated . We and the media have he desire to reduce everything to ?x happened , must mean y ? . The point is , no one knows

The only good  leading data point , and one I keep coming back to , is what USC outlined before  ? inventory levels .  That will be the least unreliable (notice my phrasing) indicator of all .

 

[irvinebullhousing]

Chinese economy is in a downward spiral. Shanghai index has drop more than 20% since beginning of the year. And more importantly, has drop below 2016 lowest point. They are in a bear market. Stock has dropped 45% since 2015.
I am not predicting doom for Irvine home prices but I do think we will see Chinese buying slow down in Irvine market soon.

china is losing the trade war

Trade war has not even begun ...

Now you should respond by saying ?but market looks ahead ?

Now w this logic try and explain how yuan devaluation will not help the exports and thereby lessen the hit from tariffs ?

But but ... er...  yuan going down means capital flight, no ?
So ... where is money going ? Safer havens ? Geez , I wonder what those safer havens are ? Surely it can?t those s__hole countries trump was talking about .

But then see the US stock markets - it is up so much , this must mean we are winning the trade war , no ?  Hmm ... maybe it has to do with the best earnings season is a decade , propelled by tax cuts ?

Ultimately system is very complicated . We and the media have he desire to reduce everything to ?x happened , must mean y ? . The point is , no one knows

The only good  leading data point , and one I keep coming back to , is what USC outlined before  ? inventory levels .  That will be the least unreliable (notice my phrasing) indicator of all .

Fortune11 provided a simple answer to a complicated, convoluted, highly manipulated methods involving money movements not just China, but around the globe. For me I like what fortune11 mentioned is that, can I see everyday around me that I can be somewhat certain that a melt down is imminent or much further down the road is, are we loosing jobs in this economy, are homes inventory all of a sudden swelled in level. I see none of those currently and into the short term future. Are buyers in the past 6 years bought have substantial skins in the game and most are well financed in Irvine. This is Irvine market that we put the laser focus on only. From what I see seller not rushing to sell and still lots of cashed purchased homes by foreigners still being use as a vacation home and sit empty for the most part of the year. Chinese money flight only guarantee further buy and hold without distress for sale. I don?t know and many don?t know what gonna happen 1-2 year from now.

 

[eyephone]

?Housing demand sees biggest drop in more than 2 years

Housing demand fell 9.6 percent in June, compared with June 2017, according to a monthly index from Redfin. That is the largest decline since April 2016.

The number of people requesting home tours fell 6.1 percent annually in June.

While supply declined overall, Redfin noted a large increase in listings in some of the most supply-starved markets, which is where home prices have overheated most.?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cn...d-sees-biggest-drop-in-more-than-2-years.html

 

[Kings]

Chinese economy is in a downward spiral. Shanghai index has drop more than 20% since beginning of the year. And more importantly, has drop below 2016 lowest point. They are in a bear market. Stock has dropped 45% since 2015.
I am not predicting doom for Irvine home prices but I do think we will see Chinese buying slow down in Irvine market soon.

china is losing the trade war

Trade war has not even begun ...

Now you should respond by saying ?but market looks ahead ?

Now w this logic try and explain how yuan devaluation will not help the exports and thereby lessen the hit from tariffs ?

But but ... er...  yuan going down means capital flight, no ?
So ... where is money going ? Safer havens ? Geez , I wonder what those safer havens are ? Surely it can?t those s__hole countries trump was talking about .

But then see the US stock markets - it is up so much , this must mean we are winning the trade war , no ?  Hmm ... maybe it has to do with the best earnings season is a decade , propelled by tax cuts ?

Ultimately system is very complicated . We and the media have he desire to reduce everything to ?x happened , must mean y ? . The point is , no one knows

The only good  leading data point , and one I keep coming back to , is what USC outlined before  ? inventory levels .  That will be the least unreliable (notice my phrasing) indicator of all .

sorry, phrasing.

china will lose the trade war

better?