irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
That doesn?t answer my question but I appreciate the post.
When would be next housing Bottom?
- Thread starter OCLuvr
- Start date
Irvine bottom in about 2 years according to this expert:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4cwXifDaCjE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4cwXifDaCjE
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
That?s what they said in 2016, and then 2017, and then 2018, now in 2019 they said in two years. Ok great!
Liar Loan
Well-known member
USCTrojanCPA said:
I get what you're saying, but paper losses are still losses. If they have a sudden need to sell or move due to job loss, health scare, or divorce, they will have to bring money to closing.
Also regarding Irvine's "shadow inventory" of new homes, I know that is the prevailing wisdom around here, but I don't buy it. Part of the desirability of Irvine is the ability to buy a new home. Once new homes stop being built, that part of Irvine's desirability will go away and the market will adjust. At that time, it will be just like any number of other non-coastal cities in OC that are built out.
irvinehomeowner said:
Wise men say
Only fools rush in
-Elvis Presley (The King)
I also bought my first place in 2006 and yes, by holding on for 11 years, I was able to recoup most of what I paid. Yet, it would have been better to rent during that time. Renting would have allowed us to save more money and not have the stress and hassle of a depreciating asset that eventually I needed to rent out and landlord.
Our next purchase was in 2010 and that was a much better time to buy when rents were more than the carrying costs of our new house.
I agree everybody should also do what's in the best interests of their personal situation, but it's not advisable to ignore math and market conditions when you buy. If prices, interest rates, and rents are all falling, it makes absolutely no sense to rush in to buying, especially if you are a first time buyer. Take your time (several years if necessary), and make a purchase you will be 100% satisfied with, both in terms of a place to live and in terms of the price you paid.
paperboyNC said:
Trulia shows that rents are now declining in Irvine, so this isn't much of a risk. If they do try to raise it, you can always move to another place for cheaper, offsetting the cost of the move.
Sensible landlords will respond to rental comps if you present them, and if you are a good tenant that they want to keep. Most will meet your terms to avoid a costly turnover.
Unlike most people here, I don't know if Irvine will ever be fully built out. What do you guys think they're going to do with all those empty spaces all the way up to Laguna? There are also so much farm fields that can be converted into homes like East Wood Village.
Even if it's fully built out, I doubt it will ever be like the other non-coastal OC areas. Irvine will always be different from Tustin, Santa Ana, Aliso Viejo, or even Baker Ranch. Nothing wrong with those cities, but Irvine is just a different city. It's a family driven city. Newly married to growing families come to Irvine. That's the main difference from cities like Costa Mesa or Corona Del Mar. Irvine also has pros of the location being close to 405 and 5 freeways, highly rated schools, selective franchise/stores in plazas for safety, numerous activities (free or paid) for kids and families, keeping it clean with HOA and so much more to list are some things that Irvine sets apart from surrounding cities. Not to mention cops are chasing away homeless people (not saying this is good) to have a good reputation of the city itself for higher RE price values.
I'm not really saying Irvine is better. I myself don't like how Irvine keeps only typical franchise in plazas and nothing is open after 9pm. It's boring, but it's got its own value to differ from other cities that attract people to keep coming regardless of being fully built out or not.
Even if it's fully built out, I doubt it will ever be like the other non-coastal OC areas. Irvine will always be different from Tustin, Santa Ana, Aliso Viejo, or even Baker Ranch. Nothing wrong with those cities, but Irvine is just a different city. It's a family driven city. Newly married to growing families come to Irvine. That's the main difference from cities like Costa Mesa or Corona Del Mar. Irvine also has pros of the location being close to 405 and 5 freeways, highly rated schools, selective franchise/stores in plazas for safety, numerous activities (free or paid) for kids and families, keeping it clean with HOA and so much more to list are some things that Irvine sets apart from surrounding cities. Not to mention cops are chasing away homeless people (not saying this is good) to have a good reputation of the city itself for higher RE price values.
I'm not really saying Irvine is better. I myself don't like how Irvine keeps only typical franchise in plazas and nothing is open after 9pm. It's boring, but it's got its own value to differ from other cities that attract people to keep coming regardless of being fully built out or not.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Mety said:
I have friends who fall into different categories when it comes to Irvine. Most love it. They've even left Irvine to see how it is elsewhere but came back. Several have grown up in Irvine and want their kids to do the same. There are a few who don't want to live in Irvine but I consider that a "them" problem
.That's changing. Many business in DJ are open late (the tofu place used to be 24 hours) and even the TIC centers have non-franchise places that do quite well. Went to Pick Up Stix off Alton last week (they closed the one in Quail Hill) and the Omomo line was ridiculous... and they opened some new mango dessert place from Hong Kong (Hui Lan Shan?) and that line was all the way down to CVS.
The Great Park is still quite a ways from being finished and there is still that land south and east of the Spectrum so yeah... it will be a while before Irvine runs out of new homes. And if prices "crash", builders will just hit pause (I was told they never did that... but they did during the last crash) and keep Irvine values high.
irvinehomeowner said:Mety said:
I have friends who fall into different categories when it comes to Irvine. Most love it. They've even left Irvine to see how it is elsewhere but came back. Several have grown up in Irvine and want their kids to do the same. There are a few who don't want to live in Irvine but I consider that a "them" problem
That's changing. Many business in DJ are open late (the tofu place used to be 24 hours) and even the TIC centers have non-franchise places that do quite well. Went to Pick Up Stix off Alton last week (they closed the one in Quail Hill) and the Omomo line was ridiculous... and they opened some new mango dessert place from Hong Kong (Hui Lan Shan?) and that line was all the way down to CVS.
The Great Park is still quite a ways from being finished and there is still that land south and east of the Spectrum so yeah... it will be a while before Irvine runs out of new homes. And if prices "crash", builders will just hit pause (I was told they never did that... but they did during the last crash) and keep Irvine values high.
I think TIC has done some homework to accept those businesses. They probably chose ones that could benefit them either financially or culturally.
Zion Market at Irvine blvd also has some Korean franchises now and the line/wait is pretty long. Kitakana Ramen is also open at that Kang Ho Dong mall.
We need more burger places... Yeah, I'm a burger person. I'm just waiting for GP to have Shake Shack and Blue Bottle Coffee. Come on, you can do it, FivePoint!
Mety said:
There's a lot of burger places in Irvine that arent your normal fastfood chains like Five Guys, Habit, McDs, In N Out, etc.
Burger Lounge (highly recommended if you like those crisp patties which I do, occasionally want)
The Cut (also highly recommended, wasn't a fan of their brunch when we showed up one time, didn't know they had a brunch only menu)
BurntZilla (they got decent sliders, little pricey though)
The Counter (Not a huge fan, but occasionally go when I have a bogo coupon)
The Stand (Not a fan)
Mooyah (Not a fan, I don't even go with a bogo coupon)
Pretty close to Irvine
Peter's Gourmade Grill (Better when it was at the side of a gas station, haven't been in a few years now)
Hopdaddy (never been, but a coworker loves this place)
Mety said:
for all of the land currently zoned for development, irvine will eventually be built out just like every other surrounding city has seen over the past 50 years. regarding the land currently zoned for preservation or open space (such as along the 405 near woodbridge and adjacent to the unincorporated area between laguna beach), i find it highly unlikely that the city's constituents (and its elected officials) would completely throw in the towel on maintaining the current open space, let alone getting anything through ceqa. i see land zoned as agricultural being a much easier target, with some of the trailer parks still active in irvine being another likely option.
eyephone said:Mety said:
I had to respond. Not a word from him once I shared the fast food sales data. It all comes down who is a reliable source and who is not.
#NumbersDontLie
because fast food sales data > real estate development on a real estate oriented message board :
ps. i think you may have mistaken me for someone else regarding your in depth fast food discussions
Kings said:eyephone said:Mety said:
I had to respond. Not a word from him once I shared the fast food sales data. It all comes down who is a reliable source and who is not.
#NumbersDontLie
because fast food sales data > real estate development on a real estate oriented message board :
ps. i think you may have mistaken me for someone else regarding your in depth fast food discussions
That?s a negative. You weren?t part of the fast food conversation. My comment was not intended for you.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Liar Loan said:
I disagree. Irvine is unique in its location and reputation. Even when there are no longer new homes, it will still trade at a premium over surrounding non-coastal cities. That giant balloon alone will keep property values high.
It's because you didn't buy in Irvine.
That 11 years would have been more like 5 or 6 in Irvine and you would have profited any time after that. The same house we bought in 2006, was already over our buy price by 2011. And by 2017, it was almost 25% more.
The Irvine motto is "Slower to drop, faster to rise."
I think it depends on where and what you rent. Rents for SFRs in Irvine weren't much lower than our mortgage payment. We ended up renting for a while and paid more than our mortgage but that's because we wanted to live in a premium area. If you have ever rented an SFR from a bad landlord, there is other stress and hassle you have to deal with that soured us on renting and maybe that's why I'm a proponent of home ownership regardless of timing.
I agree more with the 2nd part of your statement than the 1st part. I think affordability and stability are the key components to deciding when to purchase. I am in that same group of people here who would rather pay more to own than to rent. I don't think that's an uncommon trait or else people wouldn't be paying $1m for an attached condo in Delano (that is an example of when I would rent instead of own
).As you said, the only reason I would wait several years, is if we just couldn't find the home that suited us for the price we could afford. If anything, that was the mistake we made, buying homes because they were cheaper but were in non-ideal locations or didn't have the right floorplan. We could have afforded more but were trying to be "pound wise".
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
akkord said:
I'm not really a burger person but to add to your list:
Burger Boss (in Tustin Legacy, so not really Irvine)
Krave (known for their Korean Fried Chicken but they also have good burgers)
Umami Burger (never been)
Ground House Burgers (in the Trade food hall off of Michelson)
I like Burntzilla and The Cut because they have tater tots and chicken sandwiches.
woodburyowner
Well-known member
irvinehomeowner said:The same house we bought in 2006, was already over our buy price by 2011. And by 2017, it was almost 25% more.
The Irvine motto is "Slower to drop, faster to rise."
This seems like an extreme corner case. 2006 was the peak of the market and by most accounts didn't get back to this level until 2016/2017. 2011/2012 is generally considered the bottom of the market.