When would be next housing Bottom?

[Kenkoko]

I don't get the Irvine bashing. 

I don't get why pointing out possible decline on Irvine home prices = Irvine bashing.

 

[Irvinecommuter]

I don't get the Irvine bashing. 

I don't get why pointing out possible decline on Irvine home prices = Irvine bashing.

But all housing prices can decline...question is how much and how quickly recover.  Irvine falls a lot less than most communities and recovers a lot faster. 

I am not why this needs to be pointed out?

 

[Mety]

I don't get the Irvine bashing. 

I don't get why pointing out possible decline on Irvine home prices = Irvine bashing.

But all housing prices can decline...question is how much and how quickly recover.  Irvine falls a lot less than most communities and recovers a lot faster. 

I am not why this needs to be pointed out?

Irvinecommuter for mayor!

 

[Irvinecommuter]

I don't get the Irvine bashing. 

I don't get why pointing out possible decline on Irvine home prices = Irvine bashing.

But all housing prices can decline...question is how much and how quickly recover.  Irvine falls a lot less than most communities and recovers a lot faster. 

I am not why this needs to be pointed out?

Irvinecommuter for mayor!

I don't need to be mayor...just stating reality.  It's just weird to me why there is a need to create a counter narrative. 

 

[Mety]

I don't get the Irvine bashing. 

I don't get why pointing out possible decline on Irvine home prices = Irvine bashing.

But all housing prices can decline...question is how much and how quickly recover.  Irvine falls a lot less than most communities and recovers a lot faster. 

I am not why this needs to be pointed out?

Irvinecommuter for mayor!

I don't need to be mayor...just stating reality.  It's just weird to me why there is a need to create a counter narrative.

I was joking. Although I would vote for YF or BTB if he runs.

 

[meccos12]

Why aren't you questioning Inc or whoever has the same opinion that I do? Why aren't you calling out anyone else's history?

Because other people dont make false or extravagant claims as you do.  All opinions are welcome and moreso if it can be backed up with some evidence or data instead of one person's single experience or anecdotal evidence.  Do you see anyone else here claiming home prices dropped only 10% or that this slowdown is seasonal?  I have no issues with your opinion but rather in the manner in which you post false and misleading posts to make Irvine seem immune to the current downward pressures.  If it quacks like a duck, walks like a duck, looks like a duck, its a duck....  not Irvine. 

 

[meccos12]

Irvine has historically outperformed price appreciation over the years and will continue to do use into the future for many of the reasons IHO listed.  I'm not saying that Irvine prices can't drop, but they'll drop less than other cities in Orange County.

So why isn't meccos responding to USC on this? Because I didn't say it?

Meccos is waiting for the ripe time. I think the bashing between liar and meccos keep the forum interesting and showing their hands in the game. Personally, I would buy to live Irvine not for pure CAP and appreciation. That's easy to say because most of us here have bought during the low rides. Now, if I would to wait and buy I would pump the down talk to get price lower.

LOL CV,  only if I had that much power to influence prices.  You are more foolish than I thought if you think one or two people had that much influence on a blog that is visited by a small fraction of home buyers.  If you consider pointing out the obvious slowdown in housing "bashing" then I think I know where your hand is in the game.  If I was in the market to buy a house now and wanted prices to drop, I wouldnt need to bash housing on a blog, all I would need to do is wait.

 

[meccos12]

Irvine has historically outperformed price appreciation over the years and will continue to do use into the future for many of the reasons IHO listed.  I'm not saying that Irvine prices can't drop, but they'll drop less than other cities in Orange County.

So why isn't meccos responding to USC on this? Because I didn't say it?

Meccos is waiting for the ripe time. I think the bashing between liar and meccos keep the forum interesting and showing their hands in the game. Personally, I would buy to live Irvine not for pure CAP and appreciation. That's easy to say because most of us here have bought during the low rides. Now, if I would to wait and buy I would pump the down talk to get price lower.

I believe meccos12 only provided the current flow and the possible future prediction. So did eyephone also. I don't think they've ever bashed on Irvine except saying Delano is overpriced.

Well for some people anything negative or not positive about Irvine is considered bashing, even if the facts state so.
BTW I dont think I've ever said Delano was overpriced... even though it is.   

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Why aren't you questioning Inc or whoever has the same opinion that I do? Why aren't you calling out anyone else's history?

Because other people dont make false or extravagant claims as you do.  All opinions are welcome and moreso if it can be backed up with some evidence or data instead of one person's single experience or anecdotal evidence.  Do you see anyone else here claiming home prices dropped only 10% or that this slowdown is seasonal?  I have no issues with your opinion but rather in the manner in which you post false and misleading posts to make Irvine seem immune to the current downward pressures.  If it quacks like a duck, walks like a duck, looks like a duck, its a duck....  not Irvine.

So you hate strawman but look what you just did.

Find the post where I said all of Irvine dropped 10%. You won?t just like you can?t find the one where I said all of Irvine dropped 15% either. Who is revisionist now?

And I asked if it was seasonal because this is the time of year when prices and volume slows. As it has during the peak and the trough. You keep forgetting the part where I asked if this is not a seasonal slowdown, how much and how long. But you always gloss over that.

But all housing prices can decline...question is how much and how quickly recover.  Irvine falls a lot less than most communities and recovers a lot faster. 

So both USC and IC have said the same thing I did. Others have expressed the same sentiment which you say is not true. It?s not just my opinion now.

 

[eyephone]

I don't get the Irvine bashing. 

I don't get why pointing out possible decline on Irvine home prices = Irvine bashing.

But all housing prices can decline...question is how much and how quickly recover.  Irvine falls a lot less than most communities and recovers a lot faster. 

I am not why this needs to be pointed out?

Irvinecommuter for mayor!

I don't need to be mayor...just stating reality.  It's just weird to me why there is a need to create a counter narrative.

I was joking. Although I would vote for YF or BTB if he runs.

Since Belly bounced. Mety for city council.  ;D

 

[aquabliss]

Uh oh, ish just got real https://www.ocregister.com/2018/11/27/irvine-tustin-homebuying-cools-sales-tumble-14/

 

[irvinehomeowner]

And I actually don't think meccos is bashing Irvine... as I've said, he has to have some belief in Irvine's price stability because he bought here (at least I think he did).

But at the same time, he's making the same assumptions the numbers people made 10 years ago, fundamentals are not the only thing that affects Irvine pricing.

And I'm not sure where he and LL get this notion that Irvine didn't fall slower and recover faster. Maybe it's just anecdotal but even by the data, if a city has a smaller percentage fall than surrounding cities, doesn't that mean just that?

And I will stand by my contention that 28% is an extreme measurement and doesn't characterize the *sustained* drop in Irvine prices. I think Cares or Kings did a rolling 6 month average for 2016-17 compared to 2018 and that same methodology should be applied back during the crash. I even posted this before in Housing Analysis thread (and did mention the same 28% number in red):

I just checked Truila:
https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Irvine-California/market-trends/

If you look at the rolling average price from about 06-07 it's about $690k as the high. Then you look at 2012 and the average rolling low looks around $550k.

That's about 20%.

I can take the absolute high ($714k?) and the absolute low ($515k?) and that comes out to about 28% but I don't think that's a fair representation of prices for a reasonable time frame.

As Irvinecommuter said, you really have to cherry pick to get that 28% number, but LL likes to use that as his basis for Irvine not being "safer".

But let's visit his "safe" list and use his same measurement:

This mythology that Irvine is "safer" than other places to park your capital is betrayed by the facts - a 30% decline during the last downturn, and a 15-20% decline during the downturn before that. 

It's revisionist history to say that Irvine was safer, and is really a form of cognitive dissonance for those that want to convince themselves that prices can't go down.  If you really want safety, there are other places that will protect your "investment" much better.  Try CDM, NB, LB, etc.  Areas with long time owners and old money will weather the storm best. 

I'll do Newport because I used to want to live there:
https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Newport_Beach-California/market-trends/

High: ~Jul 07 - $1.6m
Low: ~Jul 12 - $862,500 (there is a lower low in 09 of $800k but I wanted to keep the time frame similar to Irvine)
Drop: 46%

So let's be fair and use a rolling average, a little hard to do with the graph but:

High: ~07-08 - $1.4m
Low: ~11-12 - $1.05m
Drop: 25%

Hmm... so using LL's extreme high/low, Irvine's 28% is much "safer" than Newport's 46%. Using the rolling average, Irvine's 20% to Newport's 25%, they are much closer to each other which is what I would expect.

Eyeballing Trulia data for both CDM and Laguna Beach shows even a higher drop using LL's method.

Now... I didn't really shop NB, CDM or LB back then but I would imagine the discounts were less depending on the stock you were shopping but that goes to my point that just the numbers don't tell the true story. They give you an idea but you really need to take into account what buyers and sellers were actually experiencing to get a better picture.

So, unless I did my calculations wrong, which city is "safer"?

 

[Mety]

Irvine is great. Just buy one for you and your family.

 

[Mety]

I don't get the Irvine bashing. 

I don't get why pointing out possible decline on Irvine home prices = Irvine bashing.

But all housing prices can decline...question is how much and how quickly recover.  Irvine falls a lot less than most communities and recovers a lot faster. 

I am not why this needs to be pointed out?

Irvinecommuter for mayor!

I don't need to be mayor...just stating reality.  It's just weird to me why there is a need to create a counter narrative.

I was joking. Although I would vote for YF or BTB if he runs.

Since Belly bounced. Mety for city council.  ;D

Yellow Belly will be back. Stay tuned.

 

[eyephone]

@mety

How do you know?

 

[Mety]

@mety

How do you know?

He always does. And we always know.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

So I've been looking at Trulia a bit more and it seems to confirm what several us have been saying in regards to Irvine's slowness to drop and quickness to recover.

Pick any city surrounding Irvine, and you will see one or more of these trends:

1. Prices start dropping earlier than Irvine's does
2. Prices drop farther than Irvine's does
3. Prices rise back up to peak later than Irvine does

Am I reading that data wrong?

 

[Liar Loan]

I don't get the Irvine bashing. 

I don't get why pointing out possible decline on Irvine home prices = Irvine bashing.

But all housing prices can decline...question is how much and how quickly recover.  Irvine falls a lot less than most communities and recovers a lot faster. 

I am not why this needs to be pointed out?

You are basing this opinion on a single data point ~ the last downturn.  There have been previous downturns where this wasn't the case.  Unless you can break down the reasons for why this occurred for the first time in 2008, and why it might happen again in the 2020's, it's not guaranteed that the same behavior will repeat.

For example ~ You can also say the 2001 recession had OC (including Irvine) outperforming the Bay Area.  San Francisco lost about 10% while LA/OC was flattish to slightly up.  Yet if you had predicted that to happen again during the next downturn (2008) the exact opposite occurred.  The Bay Area held up much better than LA/OC during the Great Recession on a relative basis.

So again, you need to break down the reasons why Irvine fared better in 2008 and determine if those same conditions will still apply in 2024.

 

[Liar Loan]

Irvine has historically outperformed price appreciation over the years and will continue to do use into the future for many of the reasons IHO listed.  I'm not saying that Irvine prices can't drop, but they'll drop less than other cities in Orange County.

So why isn't meccos responding to USC on this? Because I didn't say it?

Meccos is waiting for the ripe time. I think the bashing between liar and meccos keep the forum interesting and showing their hands in the game. Personally, I would buy to live Irvine not for pure CAP and appreciation. That's easy to say because most of us here have bought during the low rides. Now, if I would to wait and buy I would pump the down talk to get price lower.

I've always viewed it as my job to "keep things interesting" here.  However, it doesn't really show my hand in the game.  I'm not interested in buying in Irvine so it's just for the sake of trying to counter some of the pro-Irvine bias that I see posted here all too often.  I'm providing the perspective of a neutral third party.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I don't get the Irvine bashing. 

I don't get why pointing out possible decline on Irvine home prices = Irvine bashing.

But all housing prices can decline...question is how much and how quickly recover.  Irvine falls a lot less than most communities and recovers a lot faster. 

I am not why this needs to be pointed out?

You are basing this opinion on a single data point ~ the last downturn.  There have been previous downturns where this wasn't the case.  Unless you can break down the reasons for why this occurred for the first time in 2008, and why it might happen again in the 2020's, it's not guaranteed that the same behavior will repeat.

I see what you're saying here but I believe I observed the same price stickiness for Irvine during the 90s crash. A relative of mine who lived in South County had a greater price fluctuation than my friends in Irvine (so much so they wished they bought in Irvine instead). If there is a site with city by city data that goes back that far, please link me and I'll do some data churning to see if that's true like it was in 2006-2013.

And maybe the last crash was the first time Irvine exhibited better price stability (are you admitting that? ), but that could be because of the influx of FCBs (!) and why the predictions of percentage of drop for Irvine were inaccurate. Which actually helps solidify Irvine doing better in the 90s or else why would FCBs put their money into Irvine? And that demographic has only increased from then to now so it's not far fetched to think that Irvine pricing would remain stubborn (not immune mind you) for current and future downturns.

For example ~ You can also say the 2001 recession had OC (including Irvine) outperforming the Bay Area.  San Francisco lost about 10% while LA/OC was flattish to slightly up.  Yet if you had predicted that to happen again during the next downturn (2008) the exact opposite occurred.  The Bay Area held up much better than LA/OC during the Great Recession on a relative basis.

Not sure you can compare areas that are that geographically distant.

The better comparison would be proximate cities like Irvine, Tustin, Costa Mesa, Santa Ana, Aliso Viejo etc.

So again, you need to break down the reasons why Irvine fared better in 2008 and determine if those same conditions will still apply in 2024.

I think they well.

Although I'm confused because you are saying that "Irvine fared better in 2008" but originally you said it was "revisionist history".