When do you plan on buying and where in Irvine?

O

organicpop_IHB

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I would really like to buy a SFR home but when do you foresee such homes becoming affordable in Irvine?

Most of the homes I've looked at have sold in less than a month and sometimes in a couple of weeks.

I am getting a little antsy and wondering if I should rent yet again or just bite the bullet.



I did a search and I know this has been addressed somewhat but I wanted to get some more feedback...



Also, is $250 a sq ft still a reality or not? If so, what's your educated guess as to when. Thanks.
 
It's highly unlikely Irvine will ever be really "affordable". You want affordable, rent, or look in Tustin or Santa Ana or Anaheim (or Riverside, where I'm at-we are past affordable and are now in the "dirt cheap" category ($110-115/sq ft area), although east of here, out in the desert, prices drop to close to half that).



As for getting to $250/sq ft in Irvine, it's looking less likely all the time. Redfin has Irvine SFR sold stats hovering between $320/sq ft and $343/sq ft since September. In fact, since mid-May, they have been at or above $338/sq ft. That being said, summer is the prime home buying season-prices may drop a bit, due to seasonal factors, in the fall and winter. But other than that, I think one could argue we are at the bottom, for Irvine at least.
 
^ Geotpf: I'm just curious.... if you think we're pretty much at bottom now, then what is your take on the mounting number of NODs and the info provided from Foreclosure Radar such as <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/2295/P125/#118923">this?</a> Sometimes I, too, think current price levels can be sustained until I am reminded of what is going on behind the scenes. What's your .02?
 
IMHO Irvine prices reaching $250/sqft levels for a SFR is unlikely, although one can never be sure, if the sh?t hits the fan, we sure can get there.



As SoCal pointed out above and if you look at charts on Foreclosure radar etc., there is a lot of NOD activity as well as Trustee sales going on, along with the option arm resets, longer foreclosure process, the bottom IMHO would be somewhere close to late 2011, early 2012..
 
[quote author="organicpop" date=1248577487]I would really like to buy a SFR home but when do you foresee such homes becoming affordable in Irvine?

Most of the homes I've looked at have sold in less than a month and sometimes in a couple of weeks.

I am getting a little antsy and wondering if I should rent yet again or just bite the bullet.



I did a search and I know this has been addressed somewhat but I wanted to get some more feedback...



Also, is $250 a sq ft still a reality or not? If so, what's your educated guess as to when. Thanks.</blockquote>


You asked the question, maybe you should answer first... where have you been looking, and when exactly is your time frame? Can you give addresses of the sold homes? Share yours and we'll more willing to share ours...
 
[quote author="SoCal78" date=1248587531]^ Geotpf: I'm just curious.... if you think we're pretty much at bottom now, then what is your take on the mounting number of NODs and the info provided from Foreclosure Radar such as <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/2295/P125/#118923">this?</a> Sometimes I, too, think current price levels can be sustained until I am reminded of what is going on behind the scenes. What's your .02?</blockquote>


I've been hearing this for months-but this big upcoming wave of REOs never seems to materialize. I think a lot of people are just getting loan mods instead of having their properties turn into REOs.
 
[quote author="Geotpf" date=1248712610][quote author="SoCal78" date=1248587531]^ Geotpf: I'm just curious.... if you think we're pretty much at bottom now, then what is your take on the mounting number of NODs and the info provided from Foreclosure Radar such as <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/2295/P125/#118923">this?</a> Sometimes I, too, think current price levels can be sustained until I am reminded of what is going on behind the scenes. What's your .02?</blockquote>


I've been hearing this for months-but this big upcoming wave of REOs never seems to materialize. I think a lot of people are just getting loan mods instead of having their properties turn into REOs.</blockquote>


I'm working on the data that proves you wrong, and I will be posting about it soon. You have no idea what the shadow inventory is, or the amount in foreclosure, or how poorly the MBS pools are performing... do you? And loan mods... LOL... that is just future REO inventory. Think about that for a minute... NODs are continuing at a steady pace, but 60% of those who have loan mods now will re-default 6 months later. Mmmm... even a meth lab jockey in the 909 has the basic math skills to figure out what is about to happen. But then again... you just recently bought a place, so it is obvious you have an inherent bias to not see these things.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1248713629][quote author="Geotpf" date=1248712610][quote author="SoCal78" date=1248587531]^ Geotpf: I'm just curious.... if you think we're pretty much at bottom now, then what is your take on the mounting number of NODs and the info provided from Foreclosure Radar such as <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/2295/P125/#118923">this?</a> Sometimes I, too, think current price levels can be sustained until I am reminded of what is going on behind the scenes. What's your .02?</blockquote>


I've been hearing this for months-but this big upcoming wave of REOs never seems to materialize. I think a lot of people are just getting loan mods instead of having their properties turn into REOs.</blockquote>


I'm working on the data that proves you wrong, and I will be posting about it soon. You have no idea what the shadow inventory is, or the amount in foreclosure, or how poorly the MBS pools are performing... do you? And loan mods... LOL... that is just future REO inventory. Think about that for a minute... NODs are continuing at a steady pace, but 60% of those who have loan mods now will re-default 6 months later. Mmmm... even a meth lab jockey in the 909 has the basic math skills to figure out what is about to happen. But then again... you just recently bought a place, so it is obvious you have an inherent bias to not see these things.</blockquote>


OUCH
 
[quote author="roundcorners" date=1248693695][quote author="organicpop" date=1248577487]I would really like to buy a SFR home but when do you foresee such homes becoming affordable in Irvine?

Most of the homes I've looked at have sold in less than a month and sometimes in a couple of weeks.

I am getting a little antsy and wondering if I should rent yet again or just bite the bullet.



I did a search and I know this has been addressed somewhat but I wanted to get some more feedback...



Also, is $250 a sq ft still a reality or not? If so, what's your educated guess as to when. Thanks.</blockquote>


You asked the question, maybe you should answer first... where have you been looking, and when exactly is your time frame? Can you give addresses of the sold homes? Share yours and we'll more willing to share ours...</blockquote>


I don't mind answering. I have been lurking but not asking b/c I thought some people were very defensive, like your post.

Kindness goes a long way. Perhaps, you didn't intend to, but I found your tone, rather off-putting. Most people are very helpful and I only posted to see what others thought.

I am thinking of buying b/c I'm not sure if it'll get better or worse and I'd like a place in Irvine. Riverside is not an option.



Recently, I looked at 10 Shenandoah and 12 Phillipsburg. The first was gone in 10 days and the second, less than a month, I believe.

I'm looking mainly at Northwood. I have no time frame. Just if I find something I can afford and like.



Thanks in advance for any helpful and kind answers.
 
[quote author="organicpop" date=1248577487]I would really like to buy a SFR home but when do you foresee such homes becoming affordable in Irvine?

Most of the homes I've looked at have sold in less than a month and sometimes in a couple of weeks.

I am getting a little antsy and wondering if I should rent yet again or just bite the bullet.



I did a search and I know this has been addressed somewhat but I wanted to get some more feedback...



Also, is $250 a sq ft still a reality or not? If so, what's your educated guess as to when. Thanks.</blockquote>


<em>Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy.</em> - Warren Buffett







The majority will buy out of fear and will be knifecatchers. There are very few who have the patience and foresight to wait until the bottom.







The sheeple are fleeced.







If the one area you are looking in, Irvine, does not decline in price as 98% of Southern California is, maybe it would be better to look someplace else?
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1248713629][quote author="Geotpf" date=1248712610][quote author="SoCal78" date=1248587531]^ Geotpf: I'm just curious.... if you think we're pretty much at bottom now, then what is your take on the mounting number of NODs and the info provided from Foreclosure Radar such as <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/2295/P125/#118923">this?</a> Sometimes I, too, think current price levels can be sustained until I am reminded of what is going on behind the scenes. What's your .02?</blockquote>


I've been hearing this for months-but this big upcoming wave of REOs never seems to materialize. I think a lot of people are just getting loan mods instead of having their properties turn into REOs.</blockquote>


I'm working on the data that proves you wrong, and I will be posting about it soon. You have no idea what the shadow inventory is, or the amount in foreclosure, or how poorly the MBS pools are performing... do you? And loan mods... LOL... that is just future REO inventory. Think about that for a minute... NODs are continuing at a steady pace, but 60% of those who have loan mods now will re-default 6 months later. Mmmm... even a meth lab jockey in the 909 has the basic math skills to figure out what is about to happen. But then again... you just recently bought a place, so it is obvious you have an inherent bias to not see these things.</blockquote>


I'm talking about Irvine. Prices in Riverside have still been falling, at least until very recently (mid-May or early June). Prices in Irvine stopped falling in September for houses, and in February for condos. That really looks like a bottom, IMHO.



Look at these Redfin graphs:



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/city/15935/CA/Riverside">Riverside</a>

<a href="http://www.redfin.com/city/9361/CA/Irvine">Irvine</a>



Why have prices flattened in Irvine? There has supposed to be a big surge of REOs for months-it's just not happening. It's not happening in Riverside either, frankly, but prices were still falling until recently. There's simply no supply-everything gets snapped up quickly.



As for my place, I bought it at $85/sq ft, when the average for the city is currently $112/sq ft, so I'm very happy with my purchase.
 
[quote author="organicpop" date=1248724696][quote author="roundcorners" date=1248693695][quote author="organicpop" date=1248577487]I would really like to buy a SFR home but when do you foresee such homes becoming affordable in Irvine?

Most of the homes I've looked at have sold in less than a month and sometimes in a couple of weeks.

I am getting a little antsy and wondering if I should rent yet again or just bite the bullet.



I did a search and I know this has been addressed somewhat but I wanted to get some more feedback...



Also, is $250 a sq ft still a reality or not? If so, what's your educated guess as to when. Thanks.</blockquote>


You asked the question, maybe you should answer first... where have you been looking, and when exactly is your time frame? Can you give addresses of the sold homes? Share yours and we'll more willing to share ours...</blockquote>


I don't mind answering. I have been lurking but not asking b/c I thought some people were very defensive, like your post.

Kindness goes a long way. Perhaps, you didn't intend to, but I found your tone, rather off-putting. Most people are very helpful and I only posted to see what others thought.

I am thinking of buying b/c I'm not sure if it'll get better or worse and I'd like a place in Irvine. Riverside is not an option.



Recently, I looked at 10 Shenandoah and 12 Phillipsburg. The first was gone in 10 days and the second, less than a month, I believe.

I'm looking mainly at Northwood. I have no time frame. Just if I find something I can afford and like.



Thanks in advance for any helpful and kind answers.</blockquote>


Sorry, Organ... its hard to determind tone here... Welcome,, yes there has been similar <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/5437/">threads </a>done throughout the years... I feel your frustration, was not trying to add to it... you might feel more ressured that there are a lot of people in the same boat, at least we can all dialog together,, I felt so helpless and alone last week when the site was down... almost pulled the trigger and bought without all you guys!!
 
I'm less bearish than a lot on these boards. But I do think a lot of the buying going on right now is seasonal, from those who just can't wait any longer. I'm going to wait and see what happens to prices and open market REO sales in October/November of this year before making any decisions.
 
[quote author="Cuatro" date=1248736216]I'm less bearish than a lot on these boards. But I do think a lot of the buying going on right now is seasonal, from those who just can't wait any longer. I'm going to wait and see what happens to prices and open market REO sales in October/November of this year before making any decisions.</blockquote>


Good idea the demand will decrease because of the season and the supply will increase because of the ending of the 3 month foreclosure moratorium.
 
To answer the question in the title of your post, I like old Northwood, something like <a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/17-Alba-W-92620/home/4785614">this</a>. I love the retro kitchens, smaller homes with bigger lots and full grown landscaping that blocks the view of the neighbors.
 
I still say rent if your situation doesn't mind it.



You're still either paying less or equal to what you would be paying if you buy and it will give you time to figure things out.



For those who are timing the bottom... it's not going to be a one-day sale where all RE will bottom and then the next day it will be back up to 40%. Prices are going to be flat for quite a while because there just isn't any outside forces to rapidly inflate them like in the past.



And even if you miss the "absolute" bottom... 5% more isn't going to kill you like 20% less will now.



To futher answer the OP's question... we would like to buy a newer home. As much as many of you don't like the new stucco boxes... the floorplans and features are just better to us than the older homes. We like our laundry room upstairs. We like big master baths with dual closets and a vanity. We like that new home smell and not having to maintain it as much as older homes. So for us, we would like to see what happens in Laguna Crossings... it's closer to the 405 and to the beach areas and we like the elevated area.
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1248742657]I still say rent if your situation doesn't mind it.



You're still either paying less or equal to what you would be paying if you buy and it will give you time to figure things out.



For those who are timing the bottom... it's not going to be a one-day sale where all RE will bottom and then the next day it will be back up to 40%. Prices are going to be flat for quite a while because there just isn't any outside forces to rapidly inflate them like in the past. </blockquote>


Even though I just called bottom (for Irvine at least), I absolutely agree. Prices will be flat for quite awhile. In fact, they probably will fall in the fall/winter, due to normal seasonal variations. 4th quarter of this year is probably a good time to buy, if you want to buy soon.



But you are right about renting being the best deal as well. Even though Irvine's close to or at the bottom, it's nowhere near rental parity, and, apparently, will never be so. Looks like it will always be cheaper to rent than to own in Irvine, at least for several decades. (Some condos (not like in the North Korean towers) are a bit closer than houses, but even for condos, the math still doesn't seem to work out.)
 
[quote author="organicpop" date=1248577487]Also, is $250 a sq ft still a reality or not? If so, what's your educated guess as to when. </blockquote>


That's what I am waiting too. I am looking for a SFR in Northwood or Northwood II and I hope they will go lower a little lower than $250 psf in 12 to 18 months. It will be an interesting winter to watch.
 
[quote author="cran" date=1248755534][quote author="organicpop" date=1248577487]Also, is $250 a sq ft still a reality or not? If so, what's your educated guess as to when. </blockquote>


That's what I am waiting too. I am looking for a SFR in Northwood or Northwood II and I hope they will go lower a little lower than $250 psf in 12 to 18 months. It will be an interesting winter to watch.</blockquote>


Camellia in Northwood II and Carlyle in Northwood Pointe. If you have the budget then Mahogany and Rosegate.
 
I think we went through a period of insane appreciation from 2004 to 2006.

Then prices plummeted between 2007 to 2009.



Personally, I think we will have a normal market from 2010 to 2012.

Meaning, if you want to buy a home you like, buy it. If you want so stay renting, rent.

It's merely a matter of what's best for you.



I would definitely buy a home in a decent area once I find one... eventually.
 
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