What is the Median House profile (not price) in Irvine

R

recovering_homeowner_IHB

New member
Hi all,



Sometimes in the main blog, I read comments about how people won't pay this and that for a small matchbox in Irvine because it doesn't seem like you should pay 500k for a matchbox.



So, my question is, given all the available housing inventory in total (regardless of for sale or not), what is the profile of a MEDIAN HOUSE in Irvine?



Given the large amounts of condos and townhouses prevalent in Irvine, if you line up all the house types from end to end:

1. Studio

2. 1 Bedroom Attached Condo/townhouse

3. 2/3 Bedroom Attached Condo/townhouse

4. 1 bedroom Detached Condo/townhouse

5. 2/3 bedroom Detached Condo/townhouse

6. Various zero lot line stuff detached

7. 2 bedroom SFRs

8. 3 bedroom SFRs

9. 4 bedroom SFRs

10. 5+ bedroom SFRs

11. Estates, etc.



Would the median house (the middle house in this lineup) in Irvine be a 3 bedroom attached condo/townhouse...something like a 1400 square foot Woodbury residence (for example)?



That would give non-Irvinites better perspective regarding what the median income can buy in terms of the median house. If median income is 91k and median house is a 1400 sqft attached woodbury townhouse, then applying some fundamental analysis, it should be around 91k x 4 = 364k theoretically?



Could someone more knowledge than me shed some light on this?
 
The median Irvine housing unit, with regards to owner-occupied or rented by families, i.e. disregarding all the apartments, is a 1600sf 3/2. Could be attached or detached as the price point, between $575-600K, could buy you either depending on area of Irvine.



I would venture that my old condo, a 1622sf 3/2.5 detached Cal Pac 4-pac model is fairly reprensentative of the "median" Irvine home.
 
Hi IPO,



Are you using the median home price for sale in Irvine to come up with the median house profile, or do you have some way to know that a 3/2 1600 sqft pad is really the median house in Irvine using some other statistical model?



I currently rent a 3/3 1400 sqft home in West Park for 2600/month, and i guess the extra bath makes up for the 200 square feet from your median house above...so let's call it even and let's consider my current rental the median home



That amounts to 31,200/year, and no way would I be able to pay for this rental if my income was 91k/year (or even 110k/year for family income)...



So if my income and rental figures above don't jive, and just using rental rates, the median house MUST be smaller than my current rental.



IPO: am I missing something?
 
[quote author="recovering_homeowner" date=1231314386]Hi IPO,



Are you using the median home price for sale in Irvine to come up with the median house profile, or do you have some way to know that a 3/2 1600 sqft pad is really the median house in Irvine using some other statistical model?



I currently rent a 3/3 1400 sqft home in West Park for 2600/month, and i guess the extra bath makes up for the 200 square feet from your median house above...so let's call it even and let's consider my current rental the median home



That amounts to 31,200/year, and no way would I be able to pay for this rental if my income was 91k/year (or even 110k/year for family income)...



So if my income and rental figures above don't jive, and just using rental rates, the median house MUST be smaller than my current rental.



IPO: am I missing something?</blockquote>


I am using closed sale data for 2008 as my indicator of median... If you look at private leases for all of 2008, the medians are $2500/month rent, 1500sf, 3/2.



So, it is probably pretty safe to assume the median property, again excluding apartments, is 1500-1600sf and 3/2.



My guess is that the median household income for owner-occupied housing is above that $91K figure as people below it are more likely to be apartment dwellers. My guess is a household income of $100-110Kish to support the 1500-1600sf Irvine 3/2 median. The spend on housing is definitely still too high to be sustainable.
 
The OP is asking a very different question. He's asking the same question I've asked before, that is: what is the real property mix of available housing.
 
I'm too lazy to search the link, but there was a census on the OCR recently. It had a lot of information, including what OP is asking.
 
Roo, <a href="http://mortgage.freedomblogging.com/2008/12/29/oc-supply-of-distressed-homes-for-sale-drops-7/5078/">do you mean this chart?</a> or a different one? the OCR has the most useless search functionality...
 
[quote author="Roo" date=1231331251]I'm too lazy to search the link, but there was a census on the OCR recently. It had a lot of information, including what OP is asking.</blockquote>


Here is a link to our IHB thread on <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/3879/">Irvine's US Census data</a>.



Here is the original link to the <a href="http://www.ocregister.com/articles/income-education-housing-2250979-race-employment">OC Register article</a> regarding the US Census for Irvine.



Hope this helps.
 
[quote author="recovering_homeowner" date=1231314386]Hi IPO,



Are you using the median home price for sale in Irvine to come up with the median house profile, or do you have some way to know that a 3/2 1600 sqft pad is really the median house in Irvine using some other statistical model?



I currently rent a 3/3 1400 sqft home in West Park for 2600/month, and i guess the extra bath makes up for the 200 square feet from your median house above...so let's call it even and let's consider my current rental the median home



That amounts to 31,200/year, and no way would I be able to pay for this rental if my income was 91k/year (or even 110k/year for family income)...



So if my income and rental figures above don't jive, and just using rental rates, the median house MUST be smaller than my current rental.



IPO: am I missing something?</blockquote>


Most apartment owners will require that you make 2.5 to 3 times the rent to ensure that you can afford the rent. So at rent of $2600 per month that would require an income of $78K to $93K per year, depending on if you use the 2.5X or 3.0X standard. So the 'market' would determine that you absolutely can afford a rent of $2600 with the median income.



Each person is different...you may choose to save more, or dedicate less to housing. But based on that simple math, it would seem that your rental fits the median profile perfectly.
 
[quote author="IACRenter" date=1231338207][quote author="Roo" date=1231331251]I'm too lazy to search the link, but there was a census on the OCR recently. It had a lot of information, including what OP is asking.</blockquote>


Here is a link to our IHB thread on <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/3879/">Irvine's US Census data</a>.



Here is the original link to the <a href="http://www.ocregister.com/articles/income-education-housing-2250979-race-employment">OC Register article</a> regarding the US Census for Irvine.



Hope this helps.</blockquote>


Thanks, I was hoping for something more. Particularly, the mix of attached versus detached with the # bedrooms. Having the data that shows 25% of the homes are 4 or more bedrooms helps.
 
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