What do you guys think?

rkp said:
IndieDev said:
Are people paying more down because they simply have to for affordability(market) reasons? Or is it because, in general, the savings rate for individuals has suddenly shot up?
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This is what I was referring to with my point on demographics changing.  Anecdotal but in my indian community, its very common for children to live with their parents until they get married.  Esp for girls.  Heck one of my wife's closest girlfriends makes 6 figures and is early 30s still living with her parents.  Lets not debate good or bad - its just the culture and we should understand how these large downpayments happen.  Think about the amount of money saved if you are working and living and eating for mostly free. 

On IHB, AZDave always comments about down payments coming from previous equity but that isnt the case in my community.  Most of my friends saved a ton by living at home until they were married, and some even for a year or 2 after they were married and then putting a large amount down.

In addition to the living at home, the savings culture is just different.  We drive nice cars and spend money but its nothing compared to what my non-indian friends spend.  Heck, my wife and I compile how much we have earned and spent at the end of every year and even though our income has gone up by about $150K since we graduated college, our total spend has only gone up by $20K per year.  All that extra money goes to savings.  I havent even tried to be frugal or be money conscious and savings comes so easy as its how we were raised.
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rkp, I actually like that you've formed a coherent theory that could actually fit and explain higher down payments. I think we can have great conversations in the future.

However, I have to admit, I only asked that question because I already knew the answer. The U.S personal savings rate is actually not that much different in 2011 than it was in the late 1990s right before the bubble, and fundamentals were at least nominally guiding the market.http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/PSAVERT.txt

1997-01-01  4.5
1997-02-01  4.6
1997-03-01  4.8
1997-04-01  4.8
1997-05-01  5.1
1997-06-01  4.9
1997-07-01  4.4
1997-08-01  4.3
1997-09-01  4.5
1997-10-01  4.4
1997-11-01  4.6
1997-12-01  4.7
1998-01-01  5.7
1998-02-01  5.8
1998-03-01  6.0
1998-04-01  5.7

>>Bubble Era Begins

1999 - 2007

>>Bubble Era ends

2008-11-01  5.4
2008-12-01  5.7
2009-01-01  5.6
2009-02-01  5.0
2009-03-01  5.6
2009-04-01  6.6
2009-05-01  8.2
2009-06-01  6.7
2009-07-01  6.1
2009-08-01  5.1
2009-09-01  5.7
2009-10-01  5.3
2009-11-01  5.6
2009-12-01  5.8
2010-01-01  5.7
2010-02-01  5.4
2010-03-01  5.3
2010-04-01  6.0
2010-05-01  6.2
2010-06-01  6.3
2010-07-01  6.1
2010-08-01  6.1
2010-09-01  5.8
2010-10-01  5.4
2010-11-01  5.3
2010-12-01  5.4
2011-01-01  5.4
2011-02-01  5.0
2011-03-01  4.9
2011-04-01  4.9
2011-05-01  5.0

The more likely answer to this question is that people are spending more of their disposable income towards housing, which is not a normal market condition.
 
Yep, I agree with IndieDev, some of my friends bought home in Irvine, just for the sake owning a home in irvine (due to various reasons including safety, schools, infrastructure etc...). But really they have stretched a lot to make the mortgages (not sure about other buyers though). I understand the benefits of Irvine, but @ what cost? Do people really believe the cost differences reflect the real benefit differences compared to similar areas in OC?
 
ps99472 said:
Don't know much about Oak Creek... it is close to the hospital... 405 is also close as well... Easy access to daycare/preschool along the holiest part of Irvine on Alton Pkwy between Culver and Jeffrey.  Far from Ranch 99 (if you consider an extra 5 minutes far)...  405 for me is the biggest killer...  but it seems these condos are a good distance away.
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Having lived in Oak Creek for three years now, here's what I think the pros and cons are for this community:

Pros:
Diverse community, definitely not dominated by Asians (coming from an Asian).
Mostly young families with elementary school age kids.
Wide range of fairly modern floorplans
The Alton shopping plazas are within easy walking distance.
Oak Creek Elementary is considered a pretty good school (rated 10 by Great Schools) and is within walking distance from most parts of the community.
Although it is gated, it doesn't have an on-site guard station you have to go through as a visitor.  I hate those with a passion.
Easy access to major roads - 405 and 133 are very close, 5 isn't too far away, and traffic on Jeffrey is much improved now that they have finished the railroad overpass.
Oak Creek has three different pools, a small clubhouse, multiple tot lots, etc.  The HOA fees seem very reasonable for what you get.
The Cypress homes feel like SFRs - some have decent sized yards (especially compared to what passes for a yard in Woodbury or Quail Hill).

Cons:
Proximity to 405.  Freeway noise is noticeable at all times, even on the north side of Alton.  I would never live in the homes south of Dove Creek - too close to the freeway.  I think those homes tend to go for a discount compared to the rest of the neighborhood.

 
ocbuyer said:
23 hawkcreek in the same tract, smaller floorplan, was asking 600k and is in escrow for less, i believe
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23 Hawkcreek has slab problems too. I'm surprised it's even going for 600k.
 
oakcreekrenter said:
ps99472 said:
Don't know much about Oak Creek... it is close to the hospital... 405 is also close as well... Easy access to daycare/preschool along the holiest part of Irvine on Alton Pkwy between Culver and Jeffrey.  Far from Ranch 99 (if you consider an extra 5 minutes far)...  405 for me is the biggest killer...  but it seems these condos are a good distance away.
Click to expand...

Having lived in Oak Creek for three years now, here's what I think the pros and cons are for this community:

Pros:
Diverse community, definitely not dominated by Asians (coming from an Asian).
Mostly young families with elementary school age kids.
Wide range of fairly modern floorplans
The Alton shopping plazas are within easy walking distance.
Oak Creek Elementary is considered a pretty good school (rated 10 by Great Schools) and is within walking distance from most parts of the community.
Although it is gated, it doesn't have an on-site guard station you have to go through as a visitor.  I hate those with a passion.
Easy access to major roads - 405 and 133 are very close, 5 isn't too far away, and traffic on Jeffrey is much improved now that they have finished the railroad overpass.
Oak Creek has three different pools, a small clubhouse, multiple tot lots, etc.  The HOA fees seem very reasonable for what you get.
The Cypress homes feel like SFRs - some have decent sized yards (especially compared to what passes for a yard in Woodbury or Quail Hill).

Cons:
Proximity to 405.  Freeway noise is noticeable at all times, even on the north side of Alton.  I would never live in the homes south of Dove Creek - too close to the freeway.  I think those homes tend to go for a discount compared to the rest of the neighborhood.
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Another positive about Oak Creek is that the Mello Roos is fairly low too.  I wouldn't mind living a home in Oak Creek, but it's hard to find a home that meets my needs...full driveway and a downstairs bedroom under $700k.
 
frank69m said:
IndieDev said:
ocbuyer said:
23 hawkcreek in the same tract, smaller floorplan, was asking 600k and is in escrow for less, i believe
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23 Hawkcreek has slab problems too. I'm surprised it's even going for 600k.
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dumb question, but how would u know?
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When this home was listed last Fall, it was actually part of the listing description. After it went REO, it disappeared. Perhaps the bank fixed the problem, one would hope for the new buyers.
 
:eek: Maybe it's just me, but I still think $705k for a 2k sq ft detached condo in Oakcreek is expensive. But its just me..m
 
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