Villages of Columbus - Columbus Grove - Cantara

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<strong>Development:</strong> <a href="http://www.villagesofcolumbus.com/" target="_blank">Villages of Columbus</a>


<strong>Village:</strong> <a href="http://www.villagesofcolumbus.com/pages/villages/index.php?village=columbus%20grove" target="_blank">Columbus Grove</a>


<strong>Tract:</strong> <a href="http://www.lennar.com/findhome/community.aspx?COMID=2164&DIVID=OCHLEN" target="_blank">Cantara</a> (68 single family detached homes) in the City of Tustin


<strong>Builder:</strong> <a href="http://www.lennar.com/" target="_blank">Lennar</a>


<strong>Schools:</strong> Irvine School District (<a href="http://www.iusg.org" target="_blank">IUSD</a>): Stone Creek Elementary, Deerfield Elementary, Lakeside Middle, Venado Middle, Irvine High


<strong>Tax Rate:</strong> The anticipated total effective tax rate is approximately 1.8%, which is inclusive of all Community Facilities District (CFD) rates.


<strong>HOA Dues:</strong> Estimated at $175/month


<strong>


Plans:</strong>


Residence 1 - 4bd/3ba - 2580 to 2582 sq. ft.


Residence 2 - 5bd/4ba - 2765 to 2806 sq. ft.


Residence 3 - 5bd/4ba - 3109 to 3137 sq. ft.





<strong><u>PRICING</u>





Phase ? ( effective as of January 3rd, 2007)


</strong> Residence 1 - Unavailable


Residence 2 - Unavailable


Residence 3 - From $1,005,000





<strong>Phase ? (Prices as of January 28, 2007)</strong>


Residence 1 - Unavailable


Residence 2 - Unavailable


Residence 3 - From $969,000


<strong>


Neighborhood 5, June move-in (As of February 19, 2007)</strong>


Homesite & plan lot size price




<p> 244 (2B) 5401 950k


245 (3AR) 5749 978k


246 (2B) 6272 955k


247 (3B) 6795 989k


248 (1AR) 8102 945k "sold"


249 (2A) 5183 939k


250 (3B) 4878 969k


251 (1BR) 4051 910k</p>

<strong>Prices as of April 15, 2007</strong>





Phase 5


Lot 246 (must have fallen out of escrow) Plan 2B, 6272 sf lot: 919k for 5/18 close

<p>Phase 6


Lot 252 Plan 2A 4878 sf lot: 935k for 8/14 close


Lot 253 Plan 3A 5782 sf lot: 1025k for 8/16 close "sold"


Lot 254 Plan 1B 5140 sf lot: 920k for 8/20 close "reserved"


Lot 255 Plan 3AR 4229 sf lot: 965k for 8/22 close


Lot 256 Plan 1A 4225 sf lot: 910k for 8/24 close


Lot 257 Plan 2A 4225 sf lot: 930k for 8/28 close


Lot 258 Plan 3BR 4356 sf lot: 970k for 8/30 close</p>

<p>Build-out


Lot 147 Plan 1AR 4051 sf lot : 915k for 10/29 close


Lot 148 Plan 2BR 4225 sf lot: 944k for 10/30 close</p>

<p> </p>

<strong>Prices as of June 19, 2007</strong>


<p>Only 4 homes left</p>

<p>Last Phase - Neighborhood 6, October move-in


</p>

<p>Plan Price


Plan 1 859K


Plan 2 895K


</p>

<p><strong>Prices as of September 9, 2007</strong>


</p>



<p>All three models still available through owner broker, plus Lennar is also offering one that fell through (found that out from the Lennar folks at Westbourne. The prices on the models have come down:</p>

<p>Model Prices as of 9/9/07 (without realtor and close of escrow by October 5):</p>

<p>Plan 1 - 16612 Sonora - $999,000</p>

<p>Plan 2 - 16610 Sonora - $1,019,000</p>

<p>Plan 3 - 16608 Sonora - $1,109,000</p>

<p>Offered by Lennar - Includes $50k in flooring, ready for immediate move in:</p>

<p>Plan 1A/2 - Homesite 256 - 15506 Sonora - $859,000</p>


 
<p>Deposit is 30k</p>

<p>Also given the drop in the Lantana pricing, I called the office today. The design and sq footage of the two tracts is fairly similar, so I expect the prices to be somewhat comparable as well (as is, they are 100k+ more than Lantana now).</p>

<p>Lady said next phase's prices aren't coming down, and made some comment about how Lantana and Cantara are not comparable. Whatever. </p>

<p>Maybe they'll rethink when the number of visitors drops even more (usually a ghost town)</p>
 
<p>"Lady said next phase's prices aren't coming down, and made some comment about how Lantana and Cantara are not comparable. Whatever."</p>

<p>Very astute to notice that. It reminds me of a comment I read on another blog the other day.</p>

<p>"I expect the large builders such as Pardee, Lennar, KB Homes, etc... to adjust prices downward quickly in new developments. They may be reluctant to do so in close-out phases but when a new community (with a new name) is built, they'll be at market prices."</p>

<p>So I wonder if we are going to see a lot of this in Irvine/Tustin in the next couple of years - newer developments will be priced significantly lower than older ones of comparable quality. The new developments will have new names and new floorplans, giving the builder just enough cover to lower prices without pissing off people in the older developments who didn't get as good a deal. Definitely something to keep an eye out for.</p>
 
"So I wonder if we are going to see a lot of this in Irvine/Tustin in the next couple of years - newer developments will be priced significantly lower than older ones of comparable quality. The new developments will have new names and new floorplans, giving the builder just enough cover to lower prices without pissing off people in the older developments who didn't get as good a deal. Definitely something to keep an eye out for."





You called it. They may even have to "update" their floorplans to help disguise the price change, but per square foot prices will almost certainly decline until we reach market equilibrium. The builders will lead the market lower.
 
<p>This is probably the reason a place like Cortile (Woodbury) has been so sticky on the downside. They are nearing the end of their releases, and they've had several units just languishing since October with no price reductions and very little increase in incentives (maybe another $3k).</p>

<p>The more units that have already sold, the more painful it is to lower prices. If they adjust previous owners, it's a big pool to pay back. If they don't, there are a lot of people pissed off and potentially protesting outside the sales office.</p>

<p>We saw Meriwether (Columbus Square) do a quick adjustment to their plan 1, when there wasn't much water under the bridge (units sold). They are now overdue for a cut on their plan 2s and 3s, but they've closed enough already that it's too painful. In the big scheme of things, it is still early for them ( I think they are delivering phase 3 of 9 or 10), so it could happen.</p>

<p>Something will have to give.</p>

<p>SCHB</p>
 
"the two main builders have more breathing room with prices at VOC"





That may not be the case because they paid a large premium for that land. The Irvine Company may dictate price, but since their basis is nearly zero, they have much more room to lower price if necessary. They just don't want to because they won't make as much money. If prices drop a great deal, Lennar and Lyon will be building at a loss because their land basis is so high.
 
I went to these model homes. Very nice. If you guys saw my post on the Savannah discussion you can see that I liked the Front Porches. I really like how the Residence 1 in Cantara has a seperate Parlor area with french doors going out to a Front Porch. VERY NICE !
 
<p><strong>Residence 1</strong></p>

<p><img alt="" src="http://www.obeo.com/tourimages/32/324795/324795_500.jpg" /></p>

<p> </p>

<p><strong>Residence 2</strong></p>

<p><strong><img alt="" src="http://www.obeo.com/tourimages/32/324797/324797_500.jpg" /></strong></p>

<p><strong>Residence 3</strong></p>

<p><img alt="" src="http://www.obeo.com/tourimages/32/324796/324796_500.jpg" /></p>

<p> </p>

<p> </p>
 
<p>The way I see it, <strong><em>Lantana and Cantara really AREN'T comparable;</em></strong> Firstly, <strong>Lantana</strong> is on the "Irvine side" of Columbus Grove. Secondly, Lantana is true "single family" style homes, with the traditional look and feel and backyard. They really think they've got something there that was very special and that buyers would pay a premium for - especially when the other neighborhoods of the Irvine section all were selling like hotcakes. <strong>Cantara,</strong> while absolutely charming, is on the Tustin side which has an entirely different feel. Also, the homes have more of a 'detached condo' type of design with alley-loaded garages and "side yards" instead of "back yards." Because of these reasons, I definitely think the Cantara homes should be much less than Lantana - but of course, you have to consider that Lennar is the builder of Cantara and they do the "everything's included" thing, which of course they have to bill into the price.</p>

<p>Overall, the problem with ALL of these builders is that they basically <u>refuse</u> to price any of their homes, or design any of them, in the price ranges buyers are looking for... low-mid $700s, and low-mid $800's. These two pricing groups are all but missing in the newest developments. Even Kensington Court, which acted like they were pricing in the $700's, really ended up in the eights by the time you got to the largest model!</p>

<p>It's unfortunate, <strong>but if Lantana had been priced CORRECTLY from the start,</strong> with Residence 1 say, at $850, and in $50k increments from there (which is where they're at now, right?), I truly believe they would've been practically sold out by now. They obviously originally priced so they had no where to go but down. </p>

<p>I, for one, considered buying a Lantana this past June... <em>But, I refused to live staring at and hearing the concrete factory</em> for $900,000+ !!! </p>
 
<p>Neighborhood 5, June move-in</p>

<p>Homesite & plan lot size price</p>

<p>244 (2B) 5401 950k</p>

<p>245 (3AR) 5749 978k</p>

<p>246 (2B) 6272 955k</p>

<p>247 (3B) 6795 989k</p>

<p>248 (1AR) 8102 945k "sold"</p>

<p>249 (2A) 5183 939k</p>

<p>250 (3B) 4878 969k</p>

<p>251 (1BR) 4051 910k</p>
 
<strong>Lantana and Cantara really AREN'T comparable.</strong> <strong>Lantana should be price less than the Cantara</strong>. Although Lantana is on Irvine side, Cantara enjoy the same benefits(school district, club house...etc), and a beautiful view with FRESH AIR. On the other hand, Lantana lots are located in the very bad location of Irvine. Backyard is next to the HIGH voltage Powerline. You can hear the current ran on top of you from the backyard. Beside the Irvine Waste Management can be view from your second floor, and certainly the smell from the trash will be an issue that need to be address.
 
<p>I have been a silent reader of this forum for a while now. But decided to take the plunge at Cantara despite the abundance of bearish advice. I felt I was getting a pretty good deal and didn't want to wait 2 years to buy. I think the discount pricing does take care of some more downside that is yet to come. But of couse if we go down 30-40% as many here predict then I am screwed. Also wanted to let folks know that there are deals to be made if you look around and wait for an opportunity.</p>

<p>I am buying a Cantara Plan 3 from their Phase 4 that fell out out of escrow, and they want to get rid of it quickly. The price they are giving me is $899K + $26K worth of free upgrades + $6K for closing. What do you guys think of this deal?</p>
 
finally_buyin: Assuming you can use some of that $26K for points and such, that translates to $278/sq ft (unless I'm missing something?)...





Considering the Irvine address, Irvine schools, and new construction, it would seem that this is a amazing deal relative to the other builders and resales.





The general conclusion I've come up with is that if you can tolerate the lack of option flexibility, there are much better deals to be had in new construction, whereas buying a home at phase release (or close to it) yields fewer incentives, and prices closer to resale market...





Great job!





OCR
 
<p>OCR, It's not quite that great. The 26K is towards options that they had already planned into this home (I have a quick closing). It worked for me as I liked the options. However there is the additional 6K that they will pay towards closing costs. It works out to $287/sq ft which still looks pretty good. Also Cantara doesn't have an Irvine address. It is in Tustin with Irvine schools. </p>

<p>There is absolutely no doubt that new homes is the way to go if you are buying in this market. I wanted to be in the western part of Irvine and was looking at resales in Westpark for quite some time. They didn't have much at less than $400/sq ft. This made columbus grove pretty attractive to me. </p>
 
<p>finally buyin,</p>

<p>It looks like you got a smokin deal compared to the resale market. Why do you feel like you are screwed if prices go down? It sounds like you are happy with what you got for your money.</p>
 
The home pricing for new build appears lower than resale; however, if you look at the new cost for Mello-roos and HOAs, it's more, or a wash at best.
 
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