UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

[quote author="FairEconomist" date=1234175184]The graph is misleading in that the past two recessions were pretty mild. If you want to say it's something really different, you should compare to 74-75. You'd have to adjust for the increased size of the labor force as well.</blockquote>


I've been meaning to look this up, and adjust for labor force, but participation rate throws that off too. Regardless of that, the BLS doesn't provide data beyond 1990. Finding that info for 82, and 74-75 is not easy. Do you have a better source? Seriously, I would love to compare the data and see what it would look like. But again, the whole participation rate throws things off, and it is most likely higher today than it was then.
 
See 2nd graph which is % instead of absolute numbers



<A href="http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/02/job-losses-during-recessons.html">http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/02/job-losses-during-recessons.html</A>
 
You can always count on CR. He does amazing work:



<img src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/SZCIDv4ozKI/AAAAAAAAEf4/zzXkVww1hCg/s1600/JobLossesPostWarII.jpg" alt="" />
 
If the momentum continues, then we got 81 beat no problem. Only have to 48, 53, and 58 as being the worst since the depression. I hope beating 81 will be the worst of it, but I wouldn't bet on it. No_vas... what's the over under on it?
 
Depends on how many Little Hoovers we have in the Senate. If they stop the stimulus bill (which, like Krugman, I think isn't big enough) there won't be a line to make.
 
yes, it will be quite informative to see the adjusted value in six months.



will it be at -3%, or -5%.



(all my digits are crossed that it won't be at GD levels of -10%)
 
One thing that I don't know how it is reflected, is the difference in the current era with 1099 employment. Are all of those out of work real estate salespeople, mortgage brokers, non-RE salesforce, and all the "consultants" counted in this number? or U6? what is that number now?
 
<strong>UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT



SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA</strong>



In the week ending Feb. 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 623,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 631,000. The 4-week moving average was 607,500, an increase of 24,000 from the previous week's revised average of 583,500.



The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.6 percent for the week ending Jan. 31, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.6 percent.



The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Jan. 31 was 4,810,000, an increase of 11,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,799,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,745,250, an increase of 73,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 4,671,500.



<strong>UNADJUSTED DATA</strong>



The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 706,267 in the week ending Feb. 7, an increase of 24,091 from the previous week. There were 377,457 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008.



The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.4 percent during the week ending Jan. 31, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 5,940,432, an increase of 133,551 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 2.5 percent and the volume was 3,328,590.





Extended benefits were available in North Carolina, Oregon, and Rhode Island during the week ending Jan. 24.



Initial claims for UI benefits by former Federal civilian employees totaled 1,629 in the week ending Jan. 31, an increase of 43 from the prior week. There were 2,048 initial claims by newly discharged veterans, a decrease of 663 from the preceding week.



There were 20,211 former Federal civilian employees claiming UI benefits for the week ending Jan. 24, a decrease of 685 from the previous week. Newly discharged veterans claiming benefits totaled 27,936, an increase of 1,176 from the prior week.



States reported 1,488,236 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending Jan. 24, a decrease of 249,926 from the prior week.



The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending Jan. 24 were in Michigan (7.4 percent), Oregon (6.9), Idaho (6.8), Wisconsin (6.1), Pennsylvania (5.9), Nevada (5.7), Montana (5.6), Indiana (5.5), Alaska (5.4), New Jersey (5.4), and Rhode Island (5.4).



The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending Jan. 31 were in California (+20,001), North Carolina (+8,663), Ohio (+4,738), Georgia (+4,392), and Kansas (+3,232), while the largest decreases were in Virginia (-1,937), New Jersey (-1,551), Missouri (-1,370), Oklahoma (-1,199), and Connecticut (-1,000).
 
<strong>Unemployment Hits Another All-Time High</strong>





WASHINGTON (AP) ? The number of unemployed workers receiving unemployment benefits jumped to an all-time high near 5 million earlier this month, while new jobless claims remain well above 600,000. Both figures were worse than expected and <strong>new projections from the Federal Reserve show unemployment rising for the rest of this year</strong>.



The Labor Department reported Thursday that the number of people receiving regular unemployment benefits edged up to 4.99 million, marking the fourth straight week those receiving benefits have been at a record level.



The continuing claims figure underscores the difficulty people are having in this recession finding another job, which means they are forced to receive benefits for a longer period.



An additional 1.5 million people are receiving benefits under an extended unemployment compensation program approved by Congress last year, bringing the total number of people receiving unemployment benefits to 6.54 million for the week ending Feb. 7.



New applications for unemployment benefits totaled 627,000 last week, the same as the previous week, according to the department. But that was still more than the 620,000 claims economists expected.



Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co., said Wednesday it will cut nearly 5,000 jobs, or almost 7 percent of the biggest U.S. tire maker's work force, this year after it posted a fourth-quarter loss and revenue sank 21 percent. The cuts follow the elimination of about 4,000 jobs in the second half of last year.



General Motors Corp. and Chrysler on Tuesday filed plans with the government more than doubling their request for aid to a total of $39 billion and announced plans for thousands more job cuts. GM alone said it would cut 47,000 jobs globally by the end of the year - 19 percent of its work force, and Chrysler said it will cut 3,000 more jobs.



The Fed released a new economic forecast on Wednesday that reduced its growth forecast for 2009 and increased its unemployment rate projections. The new forecast predicts that unemployment will hit between 8.5 and 8.8 percent this year, up from the current level of 7.6 percent.













<a href="http://www.knx1070.com/Unemployment-Hits-Another-All-Time-High/3882256">Unemployment Hits Another All-Time High</a>
 
<strong>UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT



SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA</strong>



In the week ending Feb. 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 627,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised figure of 627,000. The 4-week moving average was 619,000, an increase of 10,500 from the previous week's revised average of 608,500.



The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.7 percent for the week ending Feb. 7, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.6 percent.



The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Feb. 7 was 4,987,000, an increase of 170,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,817,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,839,500, an increase of 92,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 4,747,000.



<strong>UNADJUSTED DATA</strong>



The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 615,232 in the week ending Feb. 14, a decrease of 94,921 from the previous week. There were 325,754 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008.



The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.5 percent during the week ending Feb. 7, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 5,959,930, an increase of 10,719 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 2.5 percent and the volume was 3,315,409.



Extended benefits were available in Alaska, Michigan, North Carolina, Oregon, Puerto Rico, and Rhode Island during the week ending Jan. 31.



Initial claims for UI benefits by former Federal civilian employees totaled 1,483 in the week ending Feb. 7, a decrease of 146 from the prior week. There were 1,998 initial claims by newly discharged veterans, a decrease of 50 from the preceding week.



There were 21,105 former Federal civilian employees claiming UI benefits for the week ending Jan. 31, an increase of 894 from the previous week. Newly discharged veterans claiming benefits totaled 27,830, a decrease of 106 from the prior week.



States reported 1,551,146 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending Jan. 31, an increase of 61,727 from the prior week.



The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending Jan. 31 were in Michigan (8.1 percent), Idaho (7.0), Oregon (7.0), Pennsylvania (6.4), Wisconsin (6.3), Nevada (5.9), Alaska (5.8), Montana (5.6), Rhode Island (5.6), and Indiana (5.5).



The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending Feb. 7 were in Kentucky (+8,419), Arkansas (+4,142), Illinois (+3,630), Texas (+3,392), and Missouri (+3,217), while the largest decreases were in California (-5,249), Tennessee (-1,718), Iowa (-1,413), Connecticut (-1,267), and South Carolina

(-1,059).
 
<strong>UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT



SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA</strong>



In the week ending Feb. 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 667,000, an increase of 36,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 631,000. The 4-week moving average was 639,000, an increase of 19,000 from the previous week's revised average of 620,000.



The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.8 percent for the week ending Feb. 14, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.7 percent.



The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Feb. 14 was 5,112,000, an increase of 114,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,998,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,932,250, an increase of 89,250 from the preceding week's revised average of 4,843,000.



The fiscal year-to-date average for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment for all programs is 4.466 million.

<strong>

UNADJUSTED DATA</strong>



The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 602,730 in the week ending Feb. 21, a decrease of 17,221 from the previous week. There were 329,925 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008.



The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.6 percent during the week ending Feb. 14, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 6,098,530, an increase of 126,384 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 2.5 percent and the volume was 3,298,510.



Extended benefits were available in Alaska, Michigan, North Carolina, Oregon, Puerto Rico, and Rhode Island during the week ending Feb. 7.



Initial claims for UI benefits by former Federal civilian employees totaled 1,244 in the week ending Feb. 14, a decrease of 252 from the prior week. There were 1,941 initial claims by newly discharged veterans, a decrease of 75 from the preceding week.



There were 19,559 former Federal civilian employees claiming UI benefits for the week ending Feb. 7, a decrease of 1,675 from the previous week. Newly discharged veterans claiming benefits totaled 28,129, an increase of 97 from the prior week.



States reported 1,393,834 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending Feb. 7, a decrease of 157,312 from the prior week.



The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending Feb. 7 were in Michigan (7.5 percent), Oregon (7.3), Idaho (7.0), Wisconsin (6.4), Pennsylvania (6.2), Nevada (5.9), Montana (5.7), Rhode Island (5.7), Alaska (5.6), Indiana (5.5), and New Jersey (5.5).



The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending Feb. 14 were in New Jersey (+2,093), Virginia (+912), Rhode Island (+493), Vermont (+106), and South Dakota (+22), while the largest decreases were in California (-16,550), Kentucky (-7,741), Pennsylvania (-6,547), Illinois (-6,248), and New York (-3,955).
 
Thank you for the "Thank You's" on this thread guys!



I always wonder as I am posting these if anyone is reading them, or even still interested... so this helps me know you guys are still reading the updates! Thanks!
 
[quote author="Girl In the OC" date=1235793440]Thank you for the "Thank You's" on this thread guys!



I always wonder as I am posting these if anyone is reading them, or even still interested... so this helps me know you guys are still reading the updates! Thanks!</blockquote>
Thank you, it's better than trying to hunt for this data on yahoo finance. I wonder if we will ever reach a 1,000,000+ weekly claim number.
 
<span style="font-size: 13px;"><strong>US economy could lose 8 million jobs this year</strong></span>

Posted Mar 04 2009, 06:13 AM by Douglas McIntyre



<a href="http://blogs.moneycentral.msn.com/topstocks/archive/2009/03/04/the-us-economy-could-lose-eight-million-jobs-this-year.aspx">US economy could lose 8 million jobs this year</a>



"Using the U.S. government?s count, about 2.4 million people lost their jobs in America last year. That does not include people who have been jobless for an extended period and are no longer looking for jobs. In January, another 598,000 people were put onto the streets by their employers, moving the unemployment rate up to 7.6%."



"According to MarketWatch, the average forecaster thinks the economy shed 640,000 jobs last month. Some of the estimates are well over 700,000. The impression that the employment situation is getting worse was confirmed by Ben Bernanke?s comments testimony to the Senate yesterday."



"The awful result of doing the math about job loss is that the monthly average increase in unemployment this year could be 650,000 to 700,000 jobs. Between the end of last year and next New Year?s eight million people could be put out of work. The fact that the number is staggering does not make it improbable."



"In the final analysis, the market may have to go through the tragedy of a sell-correction which combines agony and duration. What may happen is that the economy will run through a cycle in which unemployment increases until labor costs fall to a nearly unimaginable level. Businesses will begin to hire again because they will have access to skilled workers at a fraction of what those people would have cost them a year ago. If that is the solution to the labor problem, the end of the recession is a long march from here."
 
thanks



i'm wondering what the real rate is, though. U-6, iirc. think of all those people working part time, plus all the discouraged workers.



then add in all the 1099 contractors, consultants, brokers and salespeople.



do you think we are at 20% total yet?
 
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1236236497]thanks



i'm wondering what the real rate is, though. U-6, iirc. think of all those people working part time, plus all the discouraged workers.



then add in all the 1099 contractors, consultants, brokers and salespeople.



do you think we are at 20% total yet?</blockquote>


Not yet, but getting closer every month. I manually calculated the U6 by adding in the 9.9 million part time/marginally attached to the labor force and the unemployed, and the true unemployment rate is 13.2%.



It will be interesting to see what the OC numbers for January looked like. I'm just waiting for their "computer upgrade" to be complete.
 
<blockquote> Not yet, but getting closer every month. I manually calculated the U6 by adding in the 9.9 million part time/marginally attached to the labor force and the unemployed, and the true unemployment rate is 13.2%.</blockquote>


It will be interesting to see what the OC numbers for January looked like. I?m just waiting for their ?computer upgrade? to be complete.





but what about the 1099 contractors, consultants, brokers and salespeople. and the discouraged workers



iirc, the latter could represent up to another 5-8%, and the former a few percent (probably more in places like Irvine)
 
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1236249690]<blockquote> Not yet, but getting closer every month. I manually calculated the U6 by adding in the 9.9 million part time/marginally attached to the labor force and the unemployed, and the true unemployment rate is 13.2%.</blockquote>


It will be interesting to see what the OC numbers for January looked like. I?m just waiting for their ?computer upgrade? to be complete.





but what about the 1099 contractors, consultants, brokers and salespeople. and the discouraged workers



iirc, the latter could represent up to another 5-8%, and the former a few percent (probably more in places like Irvine)</blockquote>


Just for you... I will do a manual calculation when the January numbers come out. I have a pretty good idea on how to do it, and I have been meaning to do it. Now that I know someone really wants to see it, then I will do it. I think it will push OC to near double digit rates, but either way, it will be ugly. Just consider that the labor force is about the same as it was in 2004, and with 1% population growth... that can't be good.
 
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