graphrix_IHB
New member
<p>After reading the <a href="http://www.ocregister.com/money/ccit-sales-home-1808496-month-county">OCR article</a> that this July was the worst on record since 1988 when DataQuick started collecting the data I had to look into it further. As you can see from the chart (I'd post it but we've already pissed off OCR) the last time July was this bad was 1995 with about 2600 sales. I can't seem to find 95's July sales in DQ's or OCR's archives so going by the chart I think 2600 is fair. For 95 I have 2528 for May, 3162 Sept., 2762 Oct., and 2669 for November. </p>
<p>First lets take a look at the May sales data and the housing stock from <a href="http://www.dof.ca.gov">www.dof.ca.gov</a> . In 1994 OC had 553,552 SFRs and condos with the 2528 sales that would equal .45% of the housing stock changing hands. In 2006 OC had 643,189 SFRs and condos with the 2675 sales that would equal .41% of the housing stoc changing hands. That means the adjsuting for housing stock the sales were worse by -8.9% in 2007 compared to 1995. </p>
<p>For August I will take Steve Thomas' average pending sales from mid-February to mid-July of 2095. Then I will take the average sales of for the last six months and adjust accordingly for the current sales and pendings. Taking the average from the 5/7 to 6/18 for the pending sales it is down 7.9% from the 2095 and the July sales are down 10.6%. This is 3.4% higher than the pendings probably because of the fallout rate. The current pendings coming into August are down 10.2% and sales should be down 13.7% to 2063. But wait it gets better since the article sites that the fallout rate is higher at 10% the sales could be down as much as 18% for 1961 sales. </p>
<p>August 95 had 3162 sales for .57% of the housing stock and 07 would be .3%. August 92 was ugly with 1886 sales but a housing stock of 546,364 that is still .35%. If somehow August ends up below 1886 which it could you would have dig up home sales from the early 80s bust. August 92 had one of the worst drops in the early 90s of 34.3% from the 2872 in 91 and 3011 in 90. </p>
<p>As for Pat Veling's comments. He needs to compare apples to apples. From July 94 to July 95 employment improved and was only going down in the early 90s. So he can say that the county BK was an effect and I will have to double check the fleeing industries but with employment up I doubt it. It had more to do with the low rates on ARMs in late 92 and 93 that were adjusting that hurt. Anyone want to blame the OCR for touting ARMs back then? His foreclosure to sales stat is off too. Knowing him it is annualized even though he ignores the trends and in July the ratio was 1 in 6.5.</p>
<p>First lets take a look at the May sales data and the housing stock from <a href="http://www.dof.ca.gov">www.dof.ca.gov</a> . In 1994 OC had 553,552 SFRs and condos with the 2528 sales that would equal .45% of the housing stock changing hands. In 2006 OC had 643,189 SFRs and condos with the 2675 sales that would equal .41% of the housing stoc changing hands. That means the adjsuting for housing stock the sales were worse by -8.9% in 2007 compared to 1995. </p>
<p>For August I will take Steve Thomas' average pending sales from mid-February to mid-July of 2095. Then I will take the average sales of for the last six months and adjust accordingly for the current sales and pendings. Taking the average from the 5/7 to 6/18 for the pending sales it is down 7.9% from the 2095 and the July sales are down 10.6%. This is 3.4% higher than the pendings probably because of the fallout rate. The current pendings coming into August are down 10.2% and sales should be down 13.7% to 2063. But wait it gets better since the article sites that the fallout rate is higher at 10% the sales could be down as much as 18% for 1961 sales. </p>
<p>August 95 had 3162 sales for .57% of the housing stock and 07 would be .3%. August 92 was ugly with 1886 sales but a housing stock of 546,364 that is still .35%. If somehow August ends up below 1886 which it could you would have dig up home sales from the early 80s bust. August 92 had one of the worst drops in the early 90s of 34.3% from the 2872 in 91 and 3011 in 90. </p>
<p>As for Pat Veling's comments. He needs to compare apples to apples. From July 94 to July 95 employment improved and was only going down in the early 90s. So he can say that the county BK was an effect and I will have to double check the fleeing industries but with employment up I doubt it. It had more to do with the low rates on ARMs in late 92 and 93 that were adjusting that hurt. Anyone want to blame the OCR for touting ARMs back then? His foreclosure to sales stat is off too. Knowing him it is annualized even though he ignores the trends and in July the ratio was 1 in 6.5.</p>