badtime_IHB
New member
any1 know how much california, or orange country's share in this number?
U.S. July existing home sale pace fastest in 2 years (up 7.2%)
- Thread starter badtime_IHB
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OC sales are up 10% and OC prices are up 15%.
I've heard that this may be due to more relative sales in the higher end as it becomes more distressed, bringing the average price up. When the majority of house sales have been lower-end foreclosures, then you add to the mix some bigger end stuff, the average jumps. This is an analysis I may have heard on NPR, or read on some news sites.
What's your take on this point of view?
I get the impression you're a bull on the OC market having followed some of the other threads.
LOL! You are just posting the spin for fun now, aren't you?
http://i29.tinypic.com/xpnpe.jpg
* $424,000 median selling price that up $4,000 from July but is -5.4% vs. a year ago and -34% below June 2007’s peak of $645,000.
* Last month higher? Sept. 2008!
* The most recent median is 15% above the cyclical low hit in January 2009.
* Prices have been falling on a year-over-year basis since Sept. 2007 with the worst at -31.5% in August 2008.
* Single-family homes resell for 32% less than their peak pricing (June ‘07) while condos sell 39% below their peak in March 2006. Builder prices for new homes are 44% below their February ‘05 top.
* In this most recent period, O.C. shoppers bought 3,016 residences — that is +10.1% vs. year-ago buying activity. (From 1997-2006, monthly sales averaged 4,304 per month.) That means that sales are still 30% below average!
* July was 13th straight month of sales gains vs. the year-ago period. That follows 33 consecutive months where sales failed to beat the previous year’s pace.
Yes, things are better than the worst levels ever seen since the 80s, when the population was half of what it is today. Things are still worse than they were in the 90s, and the foreclosures are nearly double what they were in the 90s. Hope and faith is the only thing I see here.
Viva la roja!
Allmost all under 500k and it does not take to many higher end properties to close to raise the medium which is a joke as a statistic as it does not show what the true selling loses and consesions given buy the seller. The medium will go up as the high end starts going to hell and forclosures start mounting but that does not mean lower end home are going to appraiser for more.
It had to go up as 2008 was the worst sales year on record. But with 8,346 homes with NTS in July just in Orange County things are only getting worse as the upper end starts failing apart due to job loss, Alt-A and option arm readjustments and people in this catogory are 200k or more uspside down and will start walking and forclosing in droves. When the money runs out at the end of the year from the feds to buy and with high unemployment in 2010 sales will start dropping along with home prices. The next shoe to drop in a year or so is a lot these sales today are people who are buying to rent. The vacancy rate will continue to go higher and rates will drop causing a lot these sales to go belly up as they will not able to get the rents to cover the monthly nut and they will not be able to sell as they are now underwater and even more when you count in the cost to sell it. This is going to be an ugly market for 3 to 4 years and how long will people be able to survive.
Soylent Green Is People_IHB
New member
A better perspective on that report from a non-MSM source.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/ziprealty/
My .02c
Soylent Green Is People
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/ziprealty/
My .02c
Soylent Green Is People
OCCOBRA_IHB
New member
sales are good in the country with anything selling under $250k. What they dont tell you is that sales above 500k are 13% down, 1 million 23% down and over 2 million 32% down. It is spin and the higher end is whats going to collapse here in the next couple years. The number will still look good on the meduim but these are homes with toxic mortgages over a trillion dollars that have lost 200 to 300k or more and are going to go into foreclosure real quick with resets and no refinancing to be had that it is going to fry more banks every week for years. This is just spin on the low side that has nothing to do with the oc market.
asianinvasian_IHB
New member
OCCOBRA said:
OC sales are up 10% and OC prices are up 15%.
asianinvasian said:
I've heard that this may be due to more relative sales in the higher end as it becomes more distressed, bringing the average price up. When the majority of house sales have been lower-end foreclosures, then you add to the mix some bigger end stuff, the average jumps. This is an analysis I may have heard on NPR, or read on some news sites.
What's your take on this point of view?
I get the impression you're a bull on the OC market having followed some of the other threads.
graphrix_IHB
New member
asianinvasian said:
LOL! You are just posting the spin for fun now, aren't you?
http://i29.tinypic.com/xpnpe.jpg
* $424,000 median selling price that up $4,000 from July but is -5.4% vs. a year ago and -34% below June 2007’s peak of $645,000.
* Last month higher? Sept. 2008!
* The most recent median is 15% above the cyclical low hit in January 2009.
* Prices have been falling on a year-over-year basis since Sept. 2007 with the worst at -31.5% in August 2008.
* Single-family homes resell for 32% less than their peak pricing (June ‘07) while condos sell 39% below their peak in March 2006. Builder prices for new homes are 44% below their February ‘05 top.
* In this most recent period, O.C. shoppers bought 3,016 residences — that is +10.1% vs. year-ago buying activity. (From 1997-2006, monthly sales averaged 4,304 per month.) That means that sales are still 30% below average!
* July was 13th straight month of sales gains vs. the year-ago period. That follows 33 consecutive months where sales failed to beat the previous year’s pace.
Yes, things are better than the worst levels ever seen since the 80s, when the population was half of what it is today. Things are still worse than they were in the 90s, and the foreclosures are nearly double what they were in the 90s. Hope and faith is the only thing I see here.
Viva la roja!
OCCOBRA_IHB
New member
asianinvasian said:
Allmost all under 500k and it does not take to many higher end properties to close to raise the medium which is a joke as a statistic as it does not show what the true selling loses and consesions given buy the seller. The medium will go up as the high end starts going to hell and forclosures start mounting but that does not mean lower end home are going to appraiser for more.
OCCOBRA_IHB
New member
graphrix said:
It had to go up as 2008 was the worst sales year on record. But with 8,346 homes with NTS in July just in Orange County things are only getting worse as the upper end starts failing apart due to job loss, Alt-A and option arm readjustments and people in this catogory are 200k or more uspside down and will start walking and forclosing in droves. When the money runs out at the end of the year from the feds to buy and with high unemployment in 2010 sales will start dropping along with home prices. The next shoe to drop in a year or so is a lot these sales today are people who are buying to rent. The vacancy rate will continue to go higher and rates will drop causing a lot these sales to go belly up as they will not able to get the rents to cover the monthly nut and they will not be able to sell as they are now underwater and even more when you count in the cost to sell it. This is going to be an ugly market for 3 to 4 years and how long will people be able to survive.