There is a growing perception that the Fed is trapped. The economy is rapidly weakening, but any rate cuts are likely to fuel inflation. I don't know how familiar everyone here is with ECRI, but I tend to value their work highly.
This is just out this morning:
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKNAT00357920080104?rpc=44
<pre> NEW YORK, Jan 4 (Reuters) - U.S. inflation pressures
reached a 31 month-low in December due mostly to
disinflationary moves in measures of commodity prices, loans,
jobs and interest rates, a report said on Friday, paving the
way to further interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal
Reserve.</pre>
<pre> The Economic Cycle Research Institute's U.S. Future
Inflation Gauge (USFIG), designed to anticipate cyclical swings
in the rate of inflation, fell to 117.1 in December from 119.8
in November, revised from 119.7. The figure has not been this
low since May 2005, when it hit 116.4.</pre>
<pre> "The fact that average hourly earnings growth rose in
December is irrelevant engaging the future direction of
inflation," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.</pre>
<pre> "With the USFIG falling to a 31-month low, forward looking
inflation pressures are plummeting. Therefore, policymakers
need not be concerned about runaway inflation in 2008."</pre>
<pre> The index's downtick was partly offset by an inflationary
move in a measure of vendor performance, the report said.</pre>
<pre> The FIG's annualized growth rate, which smooths out monthly
fluctuations, fell to minus 4.6 percent from minus 0.7 in
November revised up from negative 0.9.</pre>
This is just out this morning:
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKNAT00357920080104?rpc=44
<pre> NEW YORK, Jan 4 (Reuters) - U.S. inflation pressures
reached a 31 month-low in December due mostly to
disinflationary moves in measures of commodity prices, loans,
jobs and interest rates, a report said on Friday, paving the
way to further interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal
Reserve.</pre>
<pre> The Economic Cycle Research Institute's U.S. Future
Inflation Gauge (USFIG), designed to anticipate cyclical swings
in the rate of inflation, fell to 117.1 in December from 119.8
in November, revised from 119.7. The figure has not been this
low since May 2005, when it hit 116.4.</pre>
<pre> "The fact that average hourly earnings growth rose in
December is irrelevant engaging the future direction of
inflation," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.</pre>
<pre> "With the USFIG falling to a 31-month low, forward looking
inflation pressures are plummeting. Therefore, policymakers
need not be concerned about runaway inflation in 2008."</pre>
<pre> The index's downtick was partly offset by an inflationary
move in a measure of vendor performance, the report said.</pre>
<pre> The FIG's annualized growth rate, which smooths out monthly
fluctuations, fell to minus 4.6 percent from minus 0.7 in
November revised up from negative 0.9.</pre>