The way we were

morekaos_IHB

morekaos_IHB

New member
I ran across this article and you really have to read it from top to bottom. It is just astonishing That in retrospect how did anyone not see this train wreck coming...I mean besides us. I thought it might be fun to see if anyone might have archived articles along this same vein. Anyway, enjoy a walk through California Gold.

Street sees 'gold rush'

"Owners on Lake Forest's Winnebago Lane tap reservoirs of cash from cheap loans and rising house prices to make their homes into castles."
 
Hahaha!...double digit gains? whoa!...and that Watts guy said, "You can forget about it. Not going to see it." This is his comment regarding buyers who wanted to wait for a possible spike in foreclosures. ......Yeah, FORGET ABOUT IT....hahaha....where is this guy now?
 
reason said:
Hahaha!...double digit gains? whoa!...and that Watts guy said, "You can forget about it. Not going to see it." This is his comment regarding buyers who wanted to wait for a possible spike in foreclosures. ......Yeah, FORGET ABOUT IT....hahaha....where is this guy now?
Click to expand...

If you want to really dig into an old doc and laugh. Read his outlook for 2006

"Why the Housing Bubble is Bogus!''

Presented By:

Gary Watts

www.impactre.com

Attached files
2006RealEstateOutlook.doc (162 B)
 
I can honestly say that we saw the housing crash coming. The stock market crash? Not so much.... :(

We cashed out of our HB house in early 2007 and moved out of state.

See here here

Note the square footage is not correct. It's 3/2 with 1742 square feet. We did a remodel in 2001.

I can only imagine what the buyers of our old house are thinking of the decline.

We loved our old house... maybe we'll see it foreclosed sometime in the near future. I know they had a large down payment, so they have alot of equity to burn.
 
formerSoCal said:
I can honestly say that we saw the housing crash coming. The stock market crash? Not so much.... :(

We cashed out of our HB house in early 2007 and moved out of state.

See here here

Note the square footage is not correct. It's 3/2 with 1742 square feet. We did a remodel in 2001.

I can only imagine what the buyers of our old house are thinking of the decline.

We loved our old house... maybe we'll see it foreclosed sometime in the near future. I know they had a large down payment, so they have alot of equity to burn.
Click to expand...

Welcome aboard!

From $199,500 in Oct. 1997 to $800k in April 2007. Yowzer!
 
SoCal78 said:
formerSoCal said:
I can honestly say that we saw the housing crash coming. The stock market crash? Not so much.... :(

We cashed out of our HB house in early 2007 and moved out of state.

See here here

Note the square footage is not correct. It's 3/2 with 1742 square feet. We did a remodel in 2001.

I can only imagine what the buyers of our old house are thinking of the decline.

We loved our old house... maybe we'll see it foreclosed sometime in the near future. I know they had a large down payment, so they have alot of equity to burn.
Click to expand...

Welcome aboard!

From $199,500 in Oct. 1997 to $800k in April 2007. Yowzer!
Click to expand...

Well our loan payoff was $262k, increased to pay for the remodel. Certainly not HELOC abuse.

But you can see with that appreciation, so fast, it bound to come to an end. I was telling people in 2005-06 to not even think of buying; just wait until the teaser rates reset... I hope they listened.

Now we have a friend that still lives in the tract over from us. Bought in 2001 or 02, for $385...refinanced for Mustang convert, refinanced again for a Suzuki Hayabusa, refinanced again for a Jaguar....I'd love to know what his loan balance is now.

Is there a way to find out? If I post an address?

Now if only we saw the stock market crash coming. However, I can honestly say that the money we're down in the stock market will come back sooner than the housing market in So Cal. I doubt our old house will ever be worth $800k again.
 
just like they mentioned on the house of cards, when you had pizza delivery man becoming mortgage "consultants" and making 20k/mo - that says it all. my wife and i saw the train coming, but i am shocked it took so long. i was thinking a year or two earlier. still shocked it went on that long but when things "look good" why fix it, right. people taking out HELOCs out of their home in lancaster to buy a 80k s class while making 45k at fed ex. my wife was starting to ask me, are you sure the prices are coming down, each year i would say yes, and the higher it goes with this 0% BS, the harder it will fall. we build up cash and look like a king, went on longer than i thought , but oh well, its here and i welcome it with open arms to some extent. just kinda odd that it is impacting friends and family even though i gave them "tips" along the way.
 
formerSoCal said:
SoCal78 said:
formerSoCal said:
I can honestly say that we saw the housing crash coming. The stock market crash? Not so much.... :(

We cashed out of our HB house in early 2007 and moved out of state.

See here here

Note the square footage is not correct. It's 3/2 with 1742 square feet. We did a remodel in 2001.

I can only imagine what the buyers of our old house are thinking of the decline.

We loved our old house... maybe we'll see it foreclosed sometime in the near future. I know they had a large down payment, so they have alot of equity to burn.
Click to expand...

Welcome aboard!

From $199,500 in Oct. 1997 to $800k in April 2007. Yowzer!
Click to expand...

Well our loan payoff was $262k, increased to pay for the remodel. Certainly not HELOC abuse.

But you can see with that appreciation, so fast, it bound to come to an end. I was telling people in 2005-06 to not even think of buying; just wait until the teaser rates reset... I hope they listened.

Now we have a friend that still lives in the tract over from us. Bought in 2001 or 02, for $385...refinanced for Mustang convert, refinanced again for a Suzuki Hayabusa, refinanced again for a Jaguar....I'd love to know what his loan balance is now.

Is there a way to find out? If I post an address?

Now if only we saw the stock market crash coming. However, I can honestly say that the money we're down in the stock market will come back sooner than the housing market in So Cal. I doubt our old house will ever be worth $800k again.
Click to expand...

PM me the address, and I can take a look for you.
 
morekaos said:
reason said:
Hahaha!...double digit gains? whoa!...and that Watts guy said, "You can forget about it. Not going to see it." This is his comment regarding buyers who wanted to wait for a possible spike in foreclosures. ......Yeah, FORGET ABOUT IT....hahaha....where is this guy now?
Click to expand...

If you want to really dig into an old doc and laugh. Read his outlook for 2006

"Why the Housing Bubble is Bogus!''

Presented By:

Gary Watts

www.impactre.com
Click to expand...

Funny - I looked at Gary Watt's web site and he is still selling CDs with his 2006 outlook! Here is his 2009 outlook this is a littel more sober:http://www.impactre.com/Forecast.html
 
Good call on cashing out when the price was right. I recommended that a co-worker of mine do the same. He bought a house in long beach for near 100k, and it was worth 550k when he sold it. He was just commenting one say about how much his house went up, when I told him about what he could do with that money - move to a state with the outdoor sports he liked, buy a big house for his family, be debt free, stress free... I was surprised that he actually did it! Last I heard he moved to Oregon and had a huge 5br house on a beautiful lot/neighborhood and is biking and fishing all the time.

RE the bubble; I, too, was calling the bubble in 2003/2004 with basic logic : "how can people afford this pricing when local salaries havent gone up? Its not sustainable! How come these same people didn't move to a beachfront in 2001 for the same price if they were making the same amount of money the whole time?" Guess why? It wasn't reasonable. I resisted the temptation to buy for the last 1.5 years (i was in grad school for much of the bubble, but not at the end) - even my own aunts and uncles telling me I was foolish to think that prices would ever actually *gasp* go DOWN! It started to become obvious that every expert on TV or person telling me that prices would continue to go up was, in some way, financially invested in convincing me that the houses were worth what they were saying. Guess what CNN, you don't go get a president of the realtor association to come on and give you an impartial analysis of the housing bubble.

Few things in the world never change, but I think the cyclical nature of housing prices is one of them. The concept of owning real estate has been around as long as we've had currency. I feel no sympathy for people who jump in with both feet at the height of an obvious bubble. I also feel the same way about people being "conned" or "misguided" in their home loans. None of this was new territory. The sources of impartial information and guidance on the structuring your home loan are well developed and easy to access. Do your homework before you start putting your name behind a million dollars.

Hahaha. Life experience is rewarding holding off on something when your first reaction is "wtf?"
 
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