The remaining bastions of the bulls

[Hormiguero_IHB]

Yes, I know, CS is infinitely better than medians, and this thread could be justifiably accused of cherrypicking... but anywho...



http://www.dqnews.com/Charts/Monthly-Charts/CA-City-Charts/ZIPCAR.aspx



BEVERLY HILLS 25 $1,580,000 $1,697,500 -6.92%

BRENTWOOD 26 $913,000 $740,000 23.38%

MANH BEACH 36 $1,942,500 $1,300,000 49.42%

MARINDEL REY 18 $667,500 $737,500 -9.49%

RANCHO PALOS 29 $1,020,000 $1,000,000 2.00%

STUDIO CITY 26 $970,500 $1,001,000 -3.05%

WEST HOWOOD 26 $677,000 $667,500 1.42%



Westside 65 $994,545 $720,000 38.13%

West LA 132 $751,250 $755,000 -0.50%

Beach Cities 98 $956,500 $960,000 -0.36%

Westchester 28 $777,000 $762,500 1.90%



SAN RAFAEL 63 $786,432 $780,000 0.82%

LAGUNA BEACH 18 $1,625,00 $1,700,00 -4.41%

CORONADO 22 $1,650,00 $1,090,00 51.38%

DEL MAR 10 $1,650,00 $1,172,50 40.72%



SAN FRANCISC 432 $760,000 $824,000 -7.77%



CAMPBELL 30 $725,500 $716,500 1.26%

CUPERTINO 54 $1,072,500 $804,500 33.31%

LOS ALTOS 40 $1,595,000 $1,635,00 -2.45%

LOS GATOS 52 $1,143,000 $1,110,00 2.97%

SANTA CLARA 88 $652,500 $662,000 -1.44%

SARATOGA 17 $1,320,000 $1,465,00 -9.90%

SUNNYVALE 89 $770,000 $759,500 1.38%



BURLINGAME 36 $1,575,000 $1,637,500 -3.82%

MENLO PARK 18 $1,105,000 $1,107,500 -0.23%

MILLBRAE 19 $1,000,000 $670,000 49.25%

REDWOOD CITY 56 $835,000 $849,000 -1.65%

SAN BRUNO 30 $570,000 $600,000 -5.00%

SAN CARLOS 30 $1,022,500 $1,007,500 1.49%



LOS ALTOS 40 $1,595,000 $1,635,000 -2.45%

LOS GATOS 52 $1,143,000 $1,110,000 2.97%

SANTA CLARA 88 $652,500 $662,000 -1.44%

SARATOGA 17 $1,320,000 $1,465,000 -9.90%

SUNNYVALE 89 $770,000 $759,500 1.38%

MOUNTAIN VIE 41 $710,000 $750,000 - 5.33%

PALO ALTO 19 $1,285,000 $1,003,750 28.02%





that's some impressive tenacity across the board in the high end, especially in light of a clean 25% haircut statewide in the same period. is this just the setup for a 30% drop in the next year, or will these towns hang tough during the winter ARM reset downdraft?

 

[No_Such_Reality_IHB]

Those are plain medians. There's been a substantial shift in property mix in the remaining live markets. IMHO, there is 2-3 years to go for the high end to show sizeable declines. Note high end is upper middle-class upscale, the $200K+ income crowd and moderate money, not the Candy Spellings of world or NASDAQ listed CxO. We have them in SoCal, but as a percentage of population they are negligible.



The downturn starts this winter when the Alt-A resets hit. They may hold through the winter and pick up a spring bump, but I don't think they can absorb the volume and then will fall from there. That's why the low end still have another 5 years to go along the bottom. The low end will not be able to recover because the mid and high end are just starting to come down to meet them.